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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:37 AM ET · 16 to play
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bills.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Ravens161 of 174 plays carry both curves
(:58) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle intended for 89-M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by 24-T.Johnson at BUF -1. 24-T.Johnson for 101 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +24.4 for BillsExpected points +10.80 for BillsModel and market agree here.play 121
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 0:58BAL +24% win prob(:58) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle intended for 89-M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by 24-T.Johnson at BUF -1. 24-T.Johnson for 101 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 5:27BUF +11% win prob(5:27) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 15-M.Brown to BAL 33 for 21 yards (23-M.Hyde).
3rd · 12:23BUF +10% win prob(12:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 14-S.Diggs pushed ob at BAL 30 for 20 yards (29-T.Williams).
3rd · 10:17BUF +8% win prob(10:17) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 26-D.Singletary to BAL 3 for 9 yards (36-C.Clark, 48-P.Queen).
2nd · 13:21BAL +7% win prob(13:21) 2-T.Bass 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
1st · 9:44BUF +7% win prob(9:44) 8-L.Jackson up the middle to BUF 31 for no gain (90-Q.Jefferson). PENALTY on BUF-54-A.Klein, Defensive Offside, 6 yards, enforced at BUF 31 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Stefon Diggs's 3-yard touchdown catch with 9:33 left in the 3rd put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st3:01Tyler Bass·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.Ferguson+30–3
2nd0:08Justin Tucker·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap M.Cox+33–3
Ravens ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bills, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.25Ravens: −0.25 expected points added per play
−0.12Bills: −0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.33Ravens: −0.33 expected points added per play
−0.05Bills: −0.05 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.12Ravens: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.34Bills: −0.34 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 72 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Bills’s 51 at 78%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 3, Bills 2.
NoteRavens outgained Bills 340-225 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2020 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32 pts to 34 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.1 vs their 17.6%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−1.07× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Bills17.4%
right on their number · +2.8 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.46× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBAL's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 62.3%, 16.1 points above their season mean of 46.2% and 1.8 times their own 9.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
65Patrick MekariC · Every snap100%76 snaps
72Ben PowersG · Every snap100%76 snaps
77Bradley BozemanG · Every snap100%76 snaps
78Orlando BrownT · Every snap100%76 snaps
15Marquise BrownWR · Full-time87%66 snaps
89Mark AndrewsTE · Full-time84%64 snaps
80Miles BoykinWR · Heavy rotation74%56 snaps
8Lamar JacksonQB · Heavy rotation74%56 snaps
83Willie SneadWR · Heavy rotation72%55 snaps
27J.K. DobbinsRB · Heavy rotation59%45 snaps
74Tyre PhillipsG · Heavy rotation53%40 snaps
70D.J. FlukerG · Rotational47%36 snaps
42Patrick RicardFB · Rotational39%30 snaps
35Gus EdwardsRB · Rotational29%22 snaps
2Tyler HuntleyQB · Rotational26%20 snaps
85Eric TomlinsonTE · Situational21%16 snaps
43Justice HillRB · Situational13%10 snaps
88Dez BryantWR · Situational12%9 snaps
68Matt SkuraC · Situational7%5 snaps
13Devin DuvernayWR · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Pierre DesirCBBroderick WashingtonDTJustin EllisNTJaylon FergusonOLBJohnny TownsendPMark IngramRBJames ProcheWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Trystan Colon-CastilloC
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
65Ike BoettgerG · Every snap100%56 snaps
75Daryl WilliamsT · Every snap100%56 snaps
17Josh AllenQB · Every snap100%56 snaps
60Mitch MorseC · Every snap100%56 snaps
76Jon FelicianoG · Every snap100%56 snaps
73Dion DawkinsT · Full-time98%55 snaps
26Devin SingletaryRB · Full-time86%48 snaps
14Stefon DiggsWR · Full-time84%47 snaps
15John BrownWR · Full-time82%46 snaps
88Dawson KnoxTE · Heavy rotation79%44 snaps
11Cole BeasleyWR · Heavy rotation64%36 snaps
13Gabriel DavisWR · Rotational45%25 snaps
85Lee SmithTE · Situational16%9 snaps
86Reggie GilliamTE · Situational14%8 snaps
19Isaiah McKenzieWR · Situational14%8 snaps
22T.J. YeldonRB · Situational13%7 snaps
25Taiwan JonesRB · Situational2%1 snap
77Ty NsekheT · Situational2%1 snap
71Ryan BatesC · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Jordan DeveyCDane JacksonCBDarryl JohnsonDETyrel DodsonMLBJake FrommQBAntonio WilliamsRBTyler KroftTE
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
L.Jackson pass−23% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:58) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle intended for 89-M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by 24-T.Johnson at BUF -1. 24-T.Johnson for 101 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 0:58 · Ravens · 3rd & goal at BUF 9 · gained nothing · -10.80 EP · −23.0% win probability
159 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 174 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
3 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 66 yards from the BUF 34 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
174 of 174 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
174
EPA per play
-0.22
Success rate
35%
Yards
560
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.2974%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.1783%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR11-0.0918%
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR10+0.2770%
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR7-0.4229%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.1433%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR4——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Bills1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
No good15 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Bills 23
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 31 to the Bills 48
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 10 to the Ravens 15
Ravens0Bills3
Field goal6 plays, from the Ravens 38 to the Ravens 10
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 31
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter51 plays
No good5 plays, from the Bills 48 to the Ravens 25
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw6.7 seconds
No good7 plays, from the Ravens 33 to the Bills 28
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 36 to the Ravens 41
Punt11 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Ravens 46
Punt9 plays, from the Bills 18 to midfield
Ravens3Bills3
Field goal10 plays, from the Ravens 27 to the Bills 16
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
Ravens3Bills9
Ravens3Bills10
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bills 34 to the Ravens 3
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Ravens3Bills16
Touchdown16 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Bills 9
Ravens3Bills17
The period ended4 plays
4th quarter48 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Ravens 2 to the Ravens 21
Punt10 plays, from the Bills 24 to the Ravens 38
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Ravens 10 to the Ravens 29
No good6 plays, from the Ravens 29 to the Ravens 26
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Ravens 34 to the Bills 8
The period ended11 plays, from the Bills 10 to the Bills 24
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
