2020 Divisional Round · Sat, Jan 16, 2021 · New Era Field

Baltimore Ravens

Buffalo BillsWinner

BUF -2.5 ✓U 50 ✓Bills closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 14.

Buffalo Bills 17–3. Biggest swing: Q3 0:58, BAL +24% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 0:58BAL — BUF BAL ball · 3rd & 9BUF 69%

(:58) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle intended for 89-M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by 24-T.Johnson at BUF -1. 24-T.Johnson for 101 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 0:58BAL +24% win prob(:58) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle intended for 89-M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by 24-T.Johnson at BUF -1. 24-T.Johnson for 101 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 5:27BUF +11% win prob(5:27) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 15-M.Brown to BAL 33 for 21 yards (23-M.Hyde).
Q3 · 12:23BUF +10% win prob(12:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 14-S.Diggs pushed ob at BAL 30 for 20 yards (29-T.Williams).
Q3 · 10:17BUF +8% win prob(10:17) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 26-D.Singletary to BAL 3 for 9 yards (36-C.Clark, 48-P.Queen).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Ravens	Bills
Offensive plays	72	51
Total yards	340 (edge)	225
Yards per play	4.7 (edge)	4.4
Expected points added / play	-0.25	-0.12 (edge)
Success rate	42% (edge)	35%
Dropback rate	64%	78%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.33	-0.05 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.12 (edge)	-0.34
Third downs	7/17 (edge)	4/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	4	2 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Ravens outgained Bills 340–225 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

23/37, 206 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-1.1 expected points added · -0.0% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

14/24, 162 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-12.5 expected points added · -1.0% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

J.K. DobbinsRB

10 att, 42 yds, 0 TD

-1.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Gus EdwardsRB

10 att, 42 yds, 0 TD

0.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Stefon DiggsWR

8/11 for 106 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · 6.5 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Marquise BrownWR

4/7 for 87 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 3.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BAL	BAL 25	13	46	7:24	Turnover on downs
2	BUF	BUF 31	5	17	1:19	Punt
3	BAL	BAL 10	4	5	1:33	Punt
4	BUF	BAL 38	5	17	1:47	Turnover on downs
5	BAL	BAL 25	5	6	2:25	Punt
6	BUF	BUF 37	7	38	2:16	Turnover on downs
7	BAL	BAL 33	6	34	2:29	Turnover on downs
8	BUF	BUF 36	6	11	2:30	Punt
9	BAL	BAL 20	8	32	5:10	Punt
10	BUF	BUF 18	7	32	2:04	Punt
11	BAL	BAL 27	8	57	0:59	Turnover on downs
12	BUF	BUF 25	2	0	0:04	End of half
13	BUF	BUF 34	13	66	5:31	Touchdown
14	BAL	BAL 25	16	66	8:48	Defensive touchdown
15	BAL	BAL 25	5	19	1:27	Punt
16	BUF	BUF 24	10	37	5:09	Punt
17	BAL	BAL 10	7	19	2:29	Turnover on downs
18	BUF	BAL 29	4	3	1:06	Turnover on downs
19	BAL	BAL 34	12	56	2:49	Turnover on downs
20	BUF	BUF 10	6	4	2:41	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 66 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	14/24	162	0	1	3	-12.5
Tyler Huntley	6/13	60	0	0	1	-6.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
J.K. Dobbins	10	42	4.2	-1.1
Gus Edwards	10	42	4.2	0.1
Lamar Jackson	9	34	3.8	0.4
Tyler Huntley	3	32	10.7	0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Marquise Brown	4	7	87	20%	3.8
J.K. Dobbins	3	5	51	14%	2.1
Mark Andrews	4	11	28	31%	-15.9
Willie Snead	5	5	25	14%	0.7
Miles Boykin	3	4	20	11%	0.9
Patrick Ricard	1	1	11	3%	0.3
Dez Bryant	0	1	0	3%	-1.3
Justice Hill	0	1	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jimmy Smith	3	2	0.0	0
Marcus Peters	3	2	0.0	0
DeShon Elliott	4	1	0.0	0
Brandon Williams	2	2	0.0	0
L.J. Fort	3	1	0.0	0
Tramon Williams	2	1	0.0	0
Matt Judon	2	1	1.0	0
Calais Campbell	0	2	0.0	1
Marlon Humphrey	1	1	0.0	0
Patrick Queen	1	1	0.0	0

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	23/37	206	1	0	2	-1.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Devin Singletary	7	25	3.6	-1.6
T.J. Yeldon	2	4	2.0	-1.2
Josh Allen	7	3	0.4	-2.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Stefon Diggs	8	11	106	1	31%	6.5
John Brown	8	11	62	0	31%	-1.2
Dawson Knox	2	2	18	0	6%	1.5
Devin Singletary	3	3	12	0	9%	0.4
Isaiah McKenzie	2	2	8	0	6%	-0.0
Gabe Davis	0	4	0	0	11%	-2.6
Cole Beasley	0	2	0	0	6%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Tremaine Edmunds	6	3	0.0	0	1
Micah Hyde	6	1	0.0	0	0
Matt Milano	5	1	0.0	0	2
Tre'Davious White	5	1	0.0	0	1
Taron Johnson	5	0	0.0	1	1
Levi Wallace	2	3	1.0	0	0
Harrison Phillips	1	3	0.0	0	0
Josh Norman	2	1	0.0	0	0
Ed Oliver	2	1	0.0	0	0
A.J. Klein	2	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -2.5
Closing total: 50
BAL moneyline: +124
BUF moneyline: -137

Bills closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 50; the game landed 20 — under by 30.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather: 34°F, wind 13 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: BAL 6 days · BUF 7 days
Coaches: John Harbaugh vs Sean McDermott