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Cleveland Browns 17 at Kansas City Chiefs 22. Final.
Chiefs -7.5 no coverU 55.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Divisional Round
Kansas City Chiefs 22, Browns 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 8:10, 1st and 25, on Karl Joseph — 7.4 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 8:10 · 1st and 25
Karl Joseph
Browns
(8:10) 4-C.Henne pass deep right intended for 11-D.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 42-K.Joseph at CLE -4. Touchback.
15.4 mph wind
Chiefs closed -7.5, won by 5 — but didn't cover.
Kansas City Chiefs 22–17. Biggest swing: Q4 8:10, Browns +7.4% win probability on one snap. Played in 15.4 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
7.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Travis KelceChiefsQ2 13:57(13:57) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6.0pts
Kareem HuntBrownsQ4 11:11(11:11) 27-K.Hunt right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7.3pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Chiefs won this one — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Browns at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Browns owned this one and still lost it — +0.44 expected points per carry, against Chiefs at +0.10 expected points per carry.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.31 expected points per dropback, against Browns at -0.14 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Chiefs won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Browns at 8 chunk plays.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Browns155 of 164 plays carry both curves
(8:10) 4-C.Henne pass deep right intended for 11-D.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 42-K.Joseph at CLE -4. Touchback.
Swing −7.4 for ChiefsExpected points −3.58 for ChiefsThe model had Browns 5 points higher than the market did.play 145
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 8:10CLE +7% win prob(8:10) 4-C.Henne pass deep right intended for 11-D.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 42-K.Joseph at CLE -4. Touchback.
4th · 11:11KC +7% win prob(11:11) 27-K.Hunt right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 13:57KC +6% win prob(13:57) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:21KC +6% win prob(3:21) (Shotgun) 4-C.Henne pass short left to 31-Darr.Williams to KC 39 for 5 yards (93-B.Goodson).
4th · 9:24KC +5% win prob(9:24) (Shotgun) 4-C.Henne pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce to CLE 23 for 24 yards (44-S.Takitaki).
1st · 2:37KC +5% win prob(2:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 17-M.Hardman to CLE 33 for 42 yards (95-M.Garrett).
2nd · 1:42
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Patrick Mahomes's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 9:16 left in the 1st put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:16Patrick Mahomes·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide leftLead never changed again+60–6
1st2:46Cody Parkey·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Hughlett+33–6
2nd13:57Travis Kelce·20-yd TD catch20-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+73–13
2nd3:14Harrison Butker·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+33–16
2nd0:05Harrison Butker·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+33–19
Chiefs ahead 6–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — total yards.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.44 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.07Browns: +0.07 expected points added per play
+0.24Chiefs: +0.24 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.14Browns: −0.14 expected points added per play
+0.31Chiefs: +0.31 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.44Browns: +0.44 expected points added per play
+0.10Chiefs: +0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 60 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 61 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Browns 3, Chiefs 5.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs 0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CLE's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, sat 59.3 points above their season number of 40.7% — they went for it by 2.2 times their own 27.0-point weekly swing.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 27.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2020 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 30 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.8 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.71× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Chiefs7.9%
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.7 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−1.41× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCLE's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 59.3 points above their season mean of 40.7% and 2.2 times their own 27.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
75Joel BitonioG · Every snap100%64 snaps
78Jack ConklinT · Every snap100%64 snaps
64J.C. TretterC · Every snap100%64 snaps
77Wyatt TellerG · Every snap100%64 snaps
6Baker MayfieldQB · Every snap100%64 snaps
80Jarvis LandryWR · Full-time91%58 snaps
82Rashard HigginsWR · Full-time86%55 snaps
11Donovan Peoples-JonesWR · Heavy rotation72%46 snaps
81Austin HooperTE · Heavy rotation63%40 snaps
62Blake HanceT · Heavy rotation52%33 snaps
24Nick ChubbRB · Heavy rotation52%33 snaps
27Kareem HuntRB · Heavy rotation52%33 snaps
70Kendall LammT · Rotational47%30 snaps
85David NjokuTE · Rotational47%30 snaps
88Harrison BryantTE · Situational20%13 snaps
12Khadarel HodgeWR · Situational13%8 snaps
31Andy JanovichFB · Situational6%4 snaps
71Jedrick WillsT · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Brian AllenCBJoe JacksonDEJovante MoffattSSAlex TaylorTKyle MarkwayTEAlexander HollinsWRMarvin HallWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Mahomes pass+10% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:57) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 13:57 · Chiefs · 2nd & 19 at CLE 20 · gained 20 · +3.44 EP · +10.3% win probability
153 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 164 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 77 yards from the CLE 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
164 of 164 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
164
EPA per play
+0.08
Success rate
44%
Yards
746
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48+0.2871%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.0167%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.6725%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.3683%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.9033%
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.5640%
Chiefs0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Browns0Chiefs6
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Browns 1
Browns3Chiefs6
Field goal14 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Chiefs 20
The period ended7 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Browns 22
2nd quarter51 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Browns3Chiefs12
Browns3Chiefs13
Touchdown4 plays, from the Browns 11 to the Browns 10
Punt10 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Chiefs 44
Browns3Chiefs16
Field goal15 plays, from the Chiefs 15 to the Browns 27
Drive ended10 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Chiefs 26
Browns3Chiefs19
Field goal10 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Browns 10
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Intercepted4 plays
No good4 plays, from the Browns 19 to the Browns 15
Browns9Chiefs19
Browns10Chiefs19
Touchdown9 plays, from the Browns 23 to the Chiefs 4
Browns10Chiefs22
Field goal12 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Browns 15
The period ended12 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Chiefs 34
4th quarter37 plays
Browns16Chiefs22
Browns17Chiefs22
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chiefs 33 to the Chiefs 3
Intercepted8 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Browns 23
Punt9 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Browns 32
The period ended10 plays, from the Chiefs 28 to the Browns 47
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -7.5
Closing total
55.5
Browns moneyline
+316
Chiefs moneyline
-376
Chiefs closed -7.5, won by 5 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 55.5; the game landed 39 — under by 16.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Cold, 41°F at kickoff; windy at 15 mph out of the north-west; overcast.
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
Browns 7 days · Chiefs 14 days
Coaches
Kevin Stefanski vs Andy Reid
NoteWind at 15.4 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
CLE +5% win prob
(1:42) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 82-R.Higgins to KC 1 for 25 yards (49-D.Sorensen). FUMBLES (49-D.Sorensen), ball out of bounds in End Zone, Touchback. The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
1st · 10:20KC +5% win prob(10:20) (Shotgun) 10-T.Hill right end pushed ob at CLE 3 for 4 yards (28-K.Johnson).
