2020 Divisional Round · Sun, Jan 17, 2021 · Arrowhead Stadium

Cleveland Browns

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

KC -7.5 no coverU 55.5 ✓Chiefs closed -7.5, won by 5 — but didn't cover.

Kansas City Chiefs 22–17. Biggest swing: Q4 8:10, CLE +7% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 8:10CLE — KC KC ball · 1st & 25KC 90%

(8:10) 4-C.Henne pass deep right intended for 11-D.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 42-K.Joseph at CLE -4. Touchback.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 8:10CLE +7% win prob(8:10) 4-C.Henne pass deep right intended for 11-D.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 42-K.Joseph at CLE -4. Touchback.
Q4 · 11:11KC +7% win prob(11:11) 27-K.Hunt right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 13:57KC +6% win prob(13:57) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 3:21KC +6% win prob(3:21) (Shotgun) 4-C.Henne pass short left to 31-Darr.Williams to KC 39 for 5 yards (93-B.Goodson).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Browns	Chiefs
Offensive plays	60	61
Total yards	308	439 (edge)
Yards per play	5.1	7.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.07	0.24 (edge)
Success rate	42%	54% (edge)
Dropback rate	63%	66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.14	0.31 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.44 (edge)	0.10
Third downs	6/13	5/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8	11 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	20	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	1	1

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs 0.07.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

21/30, 255 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

10.5 expected points added · +2.1% completion over expected

Passing · CLE

Baker MayfieldQB

23/37, 204 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

1.6 expected points added · +0.0% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Darrel WilliamsRB

13 att, 78 yds, 0 TD

3.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

13 att, 69 yds, 0 TD

2.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Tyreek HillWR

8/10 for 110 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · 6.5 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

8/10 for 109 yds, 1 TD

27% of team targets · 6.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	KC	KC 25	12	70	5:49	Touchdown
2	CLE	CLE 25	13	47	6:30	Turnover on downs
3	KC	KC 25	9	85	3:53	Touchdown
4	CLE	CLE 25	9	23	4:10	Punt
5	KC	KC 15	13	68	6:29	Turnover on downs
6	CLE	CLE 25	7	74	1:35	Turnover on downs
7	KC	KC 20	9	70	1:32	Turnover on downs
8	CLE	—	1	0	0:02	End of half
9	CLE	CLE 25	4	0	0:20	Interception
10	KC	CLE 19	4	4	0:33	Turnover on downs
11	CLE	CLE 23	9	77	4:38	Touchdown
12	KC	KC 25	12	60	5:05	Turnover on downs
13	CLE	CLE 25	20	75	8:17	Touchdown
14	KC	KC 25	6	57	3:07	Interception
15	CLE	CLE 20	8	12	3:51	Punt
16	KC	KC 28	8	25	4:09	End of game

0 of 16 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 85 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	23/37	204	1	1	1	1.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Nick Chubb	13	69	5.3	0	2.3
Kareem Hunt	6	32	5.3	1	3.3
Baker Mayfield	3	11	3.7	0	3.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Rashard Higgins	5	7	88	0	21%	-0.8
David Njoku	4	5	59	0	15%	3.8
Donovan Peoples-Jones	1	1	23	0	3%	2.2
Jarvis Landry	7	10	20	1	29%	-6.5
Austin Hooper	2	3	16	0	9%	3.9
Nick Chubb	2	5	4	0	15%	-2.7
Kareem Hunt	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.7
Harrison Bryant	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4
Baker Mayfield	1	1	-8	0	3%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Terrance Mitchell	4	3	0	0
B.J. Goodson	4	2	0	0
Mack Wilson	3	2	0	0
Sione Takitaki	3	2	0	0
Kevin Johnson	5	0	0	0
M.J. Stewart	3	1	0	0
Karl Joseph	4	0	1	1
Ronnie Harrison	3	0	0	0
Sheldon Richardson	2	1	0	1
Denzel Ward	3	0	0	0

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	21/30	255	1	0	0	10.5
Chad Henne	6/8	66	0	1	1	0.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Darrel Williams	13	78	6.0	0	3.3
Patrick Mahomes	3	14	4.7	1	0.7
Chad Henne	2	12	6.0	0	-1.3
Tyreek Hill	3	9	3.0	0	0.7
Le'Veon Bell	2	6	3.0	0	-0.6
Mecole Hardman	1	4	4.0	0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyreek Hill	8	10	110	0	27%	6.5
Travis Kelce	8	10	109	1	27%	6.6
Mecole Hardman	4	4	58	0	11%	3.5
Darrel Williams	4	4	16	0	11%	0.1
Demarcus Robinson	1	3	14	0	8%	-2.7
Byron Pringle	2	3	14	0	8%	-0.3
Le'Veon Bell	0	3	0	0	8%	-2.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Tyrann Mathieu	5	2	0.0	1	1
Daniel Sorensen	4	2	0.0	0	0
Bashaud Breeland	5	1	0.0	0	1
L'Jarius Sneed	3	3	1.0	0	0
Charvarius Ward	5	0	0.0	0	0
Anthony Hitchens	3	1	0.0	0	0
Damien Wilson	3	1	0.0	0	1
Chris Jones	1	2	0.0	0	0
Michael Danna	1	1	0.0	0	0
Frank Clark	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -7.5
Closing total: 55.5
CLE moneyline: +316
KC moneyline: -376

Chiefs closed -7.5, won by 5 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 55.5; the game landed 39 — under by 16.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather: 40°F, wind 13 mph
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: CLE 7 days · KC 14 days
Coaches: Kevin Stefanski vs Andy Reid