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2020 Divisional Round · Sat, Jan 16, 2021 · Lambeau Field
Final
RamsLos Angeles18
BY 14final margin
PackersGreen Bay32
Los Angeles Rams 18 at Green Bay Packers 32. Final.
Packers -7 ✓O 45 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Divisional Round
Green Bay Packers 32, Rams 18 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 0:33, 2nd and 4, on Van Jefferson — 6.0 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:33 · 2nd and 4
Van Jefferson
Rams
(:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 12-V.Jefferson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Packers closed -7 and covered, winning by 14.
Green Bay Packers 32–18. Biggest swing: Q2 0:33, Rams +6.0% win probability on one snap.
6.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Cam AkersPackersQ1 5:27(5:27) 23-C.Akers left tackle to GB 14 for 1 yard (91-P.Smith).
4.8pts
Davante AdamsPackersQ2 11:40(11:40) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-D.Adams for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
5.0pts
What separated them
Third down
Packers won this one — 8 of 11 on third down, against Rams at 2 of 8 on third down.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Packers won this one — +0.44 expected points per dropback, against Rams at -0.02 expected points per dropback.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Packers won this one — +0.34 expected points per snap, against Rams at +0.05 expected points per snap.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Packers won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Rams at 4 chunk plays.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Rams153 of 165 plays carry both curves
(:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 12-V.Jefferson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −6.0 for PackersExpected points −1.89 for PackersThe model had Rams 9 points higher than the market did.play 75
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:33GB +6% win prob(:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 12-V.Jefferson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 11:40GB +5% win prob(11:40) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-D.Adams for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 5:27LA +5% win prob(5:27) 23-C.Akers left tackle to GB 14 for 1 yard (91-P.Smith).
4th · 7:00GB +4% win prob(7:00) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 13-A.Lazard for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 7:05GB +4% win prob(7:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 17-R.Woods to GB 23 for 19 yards (51-K.Barnes). GB-95-T.Lancaster was injured during the play.
1st · 9:54GB +4% win prob(9:54) (No Huddle) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 19-E.St. Brown to LA 4 for 27 yards (32-J.Fuller). Penalty on LA, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined.
1st · 0:38
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Davante Adams's 1-yard touchdown catch with 11:40 left in the 2nd put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:42Mason Crosby·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap H.Bradley+30–3
1st4:40Matt Gay·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+33–3
Packers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.44 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.05Rams: +0.05 expected points added per play
+0.34Packers: +0.34 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.02Rams: −0.02 expected points added per play
+0.44Packers: +0.44 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.19Rams: +0.19 expected points added per play
+0.22Packers: +0.22 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 51 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Packers’s 71 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Rams 3, Packers 6.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.34 expected points added per play vs 0.05.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LA's sack or hit rate, 2.6%, sat 13.5 points below their season number of 16.0% — they stayed blocked by 2.0 times their own 6.6-point weekly swing.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2020 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 19 pts
off script — stayed blocked · −13.5 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−2.04× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Packers18.2%
leaned — got home · +5.3 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (+1.14× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.6%, 13.5 points below their season mean of 16.0% and 2.0 times their own 6.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
66Austin BlytheC · Every snap100%51 snaps
63Austin CorbettG · Every snap100%51 snaps
71Bobby EvansT · Every snap100%51 snaps
79Rob HavensteinT · Every snap100%51 snaps
11Josh ReynoldsWR · Every snap100%51 snaps
17Robert WoodsWR · Every snap100%51 snaps
77Andrew WhitworthT · Every snap100%51 snaps
16Jared GoffQB · Every snap100%51 snaps
23Cam AkersRB · Full-time96%49 snaps
12Van JeffersonWR · Full-time86%44 snaps
89Tyler HigbeeTE · Heavy rotation63%32 snaps
81Gerald EverettTE · Heavy rotation51%26 snaps
34Malcolm BrownRB · Situational4%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Brian AllenCDavid EdwardsGTerrell LewisLBBryce PerkinsQBJohn WolfordQBCooper KuppWRTrishton JacksonWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Goff pass+8% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(7:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 11-J.Reynolds to GB 42 for 28 yards (26-D.Savage).
Q1 7:31 · Rams · 1st & 10 at LA 30 · gained 28 · +1.89 EP · +8.3% win probability
151 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 165 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 84 yards from the GB 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
165 of 165 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
165
EPA per play
+0.13
Success rate
51%
Yards
730
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44-0.0466%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.3458%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23+0.3652%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.4533%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.6443%
Packers0 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 29
Rams0Packers3
Field goal12 plays, from the Packers 32 to the Rams 4
Rams3Packers3
Field goal11 plays, from the Rams 19 to the Packers 14
The period ended9 plays, from the Packers 16 to the Rams 47
2nd quarter46 plays
Rams3Packers9
Rams3Packers10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Rams 39 to the Rams 1
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 22 to the Rams 25
Rams3Packers16
Touchdown13 plays, from the Rams 47 to the Rams 1
Rams9Packers16
Rams10Packers16
Touchdown12 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Packers 4
Rams10Packers19
Field goal7 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Rams 21
3rd quarter41 plays
Rams10Packers25
Touchdown8 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Rams 1
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 27 to the Rams 30
Punt8 plays, from the Packers 15 to the Packers 42
Rams16Packers25
Rams18Packers25
Touchdown14 plays, from the Rams 21 to the Packers 7
The period ended6 plays, from the Packers 26 to the Packers 39
4th quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 46 to the Rams 47
Punt9 plays, from the Rams 6 to the Rams 32
Rams18Packers31
Rams18Packers32
Touchdown6 plays, from the Packers 27 to the Packers 42
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Rams 41 to the Packers 47
The period ended12 plays, from the Rams 46 to the Rams 9
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
