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polling · 300s tick · as of 5:30 PM ET · 16 to play
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30 at New Orleans Saints 20. Final.
Saints -2.5 upset
The verdict · 2020 Divisional Round
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30, Saints 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 7:18, 2nd and 8, on Devin White — 26.2 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 7:18 · 2nd and 8
Devin White
Buccaneers
(7:18) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right intended for 41-A.Kamara INTERCEPTED by 45-D.White at NO 48. 45-D.White pushed ob at NO 20 for 28 yards (12-M.Callaway).
U 53 ✓
Dome
Saints closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30–20. Biggest swing: Q4 7:18, Buccaneers +26.2% win probability on one snap.
26.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Sean Murphy-BuntingBuccaneersQ2 11:31(11:31) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right intended for 13-M.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 23-S.Murphy-Bunting at NO 39. 23-S.Murphy-Bunting ran ob at NO 3 for 36 yards (78-E.McCoy).
17.7pts
Tre'Quan SmithSaintsQ2 8:17(8:17) (Shotgun) 74-J.Hurst reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 41-A.Kamara. 2-J.Winston pass deep middle to 10-T.Smith for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 28, YAC 28. 41-A.Kamara handoff to 17-E.Sanders, who pitched back to 2-J.Winston.
17.2pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Buccaneers won this one — no giveaways, against Saints at 4 giveaways.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Buccaneers won this one — +0.11 expected points per dropback, against Saints at -0.61 expected points per dropback.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Buccaneers won this one — +0.08 expected points per snap, against Saints at -0.34 expected points per snap.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 11 on third down, against Buccaneers at 8 of 16 on third down.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Buccaneers166 of 177 plays carry both curves
(7:18) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right intended for 41-A.Kamara INTERCEPTED by 45-D.White at NO 48. 45-D.White pushed ob at NO 20 for 28 yards (12-M.Callaway).
Swing −26.2 for SaintsExpected points −6.22 for SaintsModel and market agree here.play 154
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 7:18TB +26% win prob(7:18) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right intended for 41-A.Kamara INTERCEPTED by 45-D.White at NO 48. 45-D.White pushed ob at NO 20 for 28 yards (12-M.Callaway).
2nd · 11:31TB +18% win prob(11:31) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right intended for 13-M.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 23-S.Murphy-Bunting at NO 39. 23-S.Murphy-Bunting ran ob at NO 3 for 36 yards (78-E.McCoy).
2nd · 8:17NO +17% win prob(8:17) (Shotgun) 74-J.Hurst reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 41-A.Kamara. 2-J.Winston pass deep middle to 10-T.Smith for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 28, YAC 28. 41-A.Kamara handoff to 17-E.Sanders, who pitched back to 2-J.Winston.
4th · 11:57NO +12% win prob(11:57) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 10-S.Miller to NO 31 for 29 yards (43-M.Williams). Penalty on NO-23-M.Lattimore, Defensive Holding, declined. Pass 27, YAC 2
3rd · 4:41TB +11% win prob(4:41) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 87-J.Cook to TB 47 for 8 yards (31-A.Winfield). FUMBLES (31-A.Winfield), RECOVERED by TB-45-D.White at TB 42. 45-D.White pushed ob at NO 40 for 18 yards (13-M.Thomas). Pass 4, YAC 4
3rd · 2:26
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ryan Succop's 36-yard field goal with 9:57 left in the 4th put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st11:34Wil Lutz·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.Wood+30–3
1st4:44Wil Lutz·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.Wood+30–6
2nd13:00Ryan Succop·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap Z.Triner+33–6
2nd11:20Mike Evans·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+710–6
Buccaneers ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Saints, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.61 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.08Buccaneers: +0.08 expected points added per play
−0.34Saints: −0.34 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.11Buccaneers: +0.11 expected points added per play
−0.61Saints: −0.61 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.05Buccaneers: +0.05 expected points added per play
+0.05Saints: +0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 66 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Saints’s 60 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 6, Saints 3.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.34.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2020 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 29 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.4 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−1.08× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Saints8.8%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.2 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−1.25× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTB's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -7.4 pts, 13.5 points below their season mean of 6.1 pts and 1.5 times their own 8.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Brees pass−25% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(7:18) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right intended for 41-A.Kamara INTERCEPTED by 45-D.White at NO 48. 45-D.White pushed ob at NO 20 for 28 yards (12-M.Callaway).
Q4 7:18 · Saints · 2nd & 8 at NO 38 · gained nothing · -6.22 EP · −24.5% win probability
164 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 75 yards from the NO 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
-0.10
Success rate
42%
Yards
610
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.0463%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR17-0.4441%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12-0.8375%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.3058%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.0211%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-0.020%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.7183%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.2267%
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Buccaneers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Buccaneers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 32
Buccaneers0Saints3
Field goal6 plays, from the Buccaneers 21 to the Buccaneers 5
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 29
Buccaneers0Saints6
Field goal13 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Buccaneers 24
The period ended13 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Saints 35
2nd quarter52 plays
Buccaneers3Saints6
Field goal5 plays, from the Saints 33 to the Saints 8
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 42
Buccaneers9Saints6
Buccaneers10Saints6
Touchdown2 plays
FormationWildcatOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.1 seconds
Buccaneers10Saints12
Buccaneers10Saints13
Touchdown9 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 44
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 34
Punt8 plays, from the Saints 9 to the Saints 48
Buccaneers13Saints13
Field goal17 plays, from the Buccaneers 18 to the Saints 19
3rd quarter41 plays
Buccaneers13Saints19
Buccaneers13Saints20
Touchdown12 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Buccaneers 16
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 41
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Saints 15 to the Saints 45
Buccaneers19Saints20
Buccaneers20Saints20
Touchdown6 plays, from the Saints 40 to the Saints 6
Punt8 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 37
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter41 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Buccaneers23Saints20
Field goal12 plays, from the Buccaneers 27 to the Saints 18
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 38
Buccaneers29Saints20
Buccaneers30Saints20
Touchdown5 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Saints 1
Intercepted5 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 35
The period ended13 plays, from the Buccaneers 48 to the Saints 25
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
