2020 Divisional Round · Sun, Jan 17, 2021 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

New Orleans Saints

NO -2.5 upsetU 53 ✓DomeSaints closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30–20. Biggest swing: Q4 7:18, TB +26% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 7:18TB — NO NO ball · 2nd & 8TB 57%

(7:18) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right intended for 41-A.Kamara INTERCEPTED by 45-D.White at NO 48. 45-D.White pushed ob at NO 20 for 28 yards (12-M.Callaway).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 7:18TB +26% win prob(7:18) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right intended for 41-A.Kamara INTERCEPTED by 45-D.White at NO 48. 45-D.White pushed ob at NO 20 for 28 yards (12-M.Callaway).
Q2 · 11:31TB +18% win prob(11:31) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right intended for 13-M.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 23-S.Murphy-Bunting at NO 39. 23-S.Murphy-Bunting ran ob at NO 3 for 36 yards (78-E.McCoy).
Q2 · 8:17NO +17% win prob(8:17) (Shotgun) 74-J.Hurst reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 41-A.Kamara. 2-J.Winston pass deep middle to 10-T.Smith for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 28, YAC 28. 41-A.Kamara handoff to 17-E.Sanders, who pitched back to 2-J.Winston.
Q4 · 11:57NO +12% win prob(11:57) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 10-S.Miller to NO 31 for 29 yards (43-M.Williams). Penalty on NO-23-M.Lattimore, Defensive Holding, declined. Pass 27, YAC 2

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Saints
Offensive plays	66	60
Total yards	317 (edge)	294
Yards per play	4.8	4.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.08 (edge)	-0.34
Success rate	47% (edge)	45%
Dropback rate	52%	58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.11 (edge)	-0.61
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.05	0.05 (edge)
Third downs	8/16	7/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	4 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	1	0 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	4

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.34.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

18/33, 199 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

3.6 expected points added · -9.1% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Drew BreesQB

19/34, 134 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT

-19.4 expected points added · -15.5% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

18 att, 85 yds, 0 TD

1.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Leonard FournetteRB

17 att, 63 yds, 0 TD

-1.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Tre'Quan SmithWR

3/3 for 85 yds, 2 TD

9% of team targets · 9.2 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Cameron BrateTE

4/5 for 50 yds, 0 TD

15% of team targets · 2.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 25	5	7	1:42	Punt
2	NO	TB 21	6	9	1:48	Turnover on downs
3	TB	TB 25	5	-6	1:44	Defensive touchdown
4	NO	NO 30	12	36	5:07	Turnover on downs
5	TB	TB 25	16	62	6:42	Turnover on downs
6	NO	NO 25	4	17	1:37	Interception
7	TB	NO 3	2	3	0:04	Touchdown
8	NO	NO 25	8	70	3:08	Touchdown
9	TB	TB 25	5	9	1:38	Punt
10	NO	NO 9	7	39	4:02	Punt
11	TB	TB 18	13	68	2:28	Turnover on downs
12	NO	NO 25	12	75	5:17	Touchdown
13	TB	TB 25	7	16	2:45	Punt
14	NO	NO 15	5	18	2:28	Fumble
15	TB	NO 40	6	40	2:08	Touchdown
16	NO	NO 25	7	7	1:38	Punt
17	TB	TB 21	11	71	5:52	Turnover on downs
18	NO	NO 25	6	13	2:44	Interception
19	TB	NO 20	5	20	2:11	Touchdown
20	NO	NO 25	5	10	0:40	Interception
21	TB	TB 48	9	27	4:17	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 75 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	18/33	199	2	0	1	3.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Leonard Fournette	17	63	3.7	0	-1.7
Ronald Jones	13	62	4.8	0	0.1
Tom Brady	5	2	0.4	1	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cameron Brate	4	5	50	0	15%	2.2
Leonard Fournette	5	6	44	1	18%	5.5
Chris Godwin	4	7	34	0	21%	0.9
Scott Miller	1	2	29	0	6%	2.0
Tyler Johnson	1	1	15	0	3%	2.4
Rob Gronkowski	1	5	14	0	15%	-3.4
Antonio Brown	1	3	10	0	9%	-2.3
Mike Evans	1	3	3	1	9%	-0.7
Ronald Jones	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Devin White	10	1	1	1
Lavonte David	6	1	0	0
Antoine Winfield	5	1	0	0
Sean Murphy-Bunting	5	0	1	2
Ndamukong Suh	1	2	0	0
Jamel Dean	2	1	0	1
Jason Pierre-Paul	2	0	0	1
William Gholston	1	1	0	0
Jordan Whitehead	2	0	0	0
Anthony Nelson	1	0	0	0

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drew Brees	19/34	134	1	3	0	-19.4
Jameis Winston	1/1	56	1	0	0	4.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Alvin Kamara	18	85	4.7	1.4
Ty Montgomery	4	14	3.5	-0.5
Drew Brees	2	3	1.5	1.0
Dwayne Washington	1	2	2.0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tre'Quan Smith	3	3	85	2	9%	9.2
Emmanuel Sanders	6	9	48	0	26%	2.2
Jared Cook	5	7	28	0	20%	-10.5
Alvin Kamara	3	6	20	0	17%	-8.0
Ty Montgomery	1	1	13	0	3%	0.9
Michael Burton	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.7
Michael Thomas	0	4	0	0	11%	-10.4
Marquez Callaway	0	2	0	0	6%	-1.1
Deonte Harty	1	1	-1	0	3%	-1.0
Josh Hill	1	1	-3	0	3%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Malcolm Jenkins	8	3	0.0	3
Demario Davis	8	1	1.0	0
Alex Anzalone	4	3	0.0	0
Marcus Williams	4	1	0.0	0
Cameron Jordan	3	1	0.0	0
Janoris Jenkins	3	1	0.0	0
Shy Tuttle	3	1	0.0	0
David Onyemata	1	2	0.0	0
Zack Baun	2	1	0.0	0
Marcus Davenport	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -2.5
Closing total: 53
TB moneyline: +120
NO moneyline: -133

Saints closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 53; the game landed 50 — under by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface: dome · astroturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: TB 8 days · NO 7 days
Coaches: Bruce Arians vs Sean Payton

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.