2020 Conference Championship · Sun, Jan 24, 2021 · Arrowhead Stadium

Buffalo Bills

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

KC -3 ✓O 54.5 ✓Chiefs closed -3 and covered, winning by 14.

Kansas City Chiefs 38–24. Biggest swing: Q1 6:30, KC +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 6:30BUF — KC BUF ball · 4th & 8KC 52%

(6:30) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 48 yards to KC 11, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 17-M.Hardman MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by BUF-25-T.Jones at KC 3.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 6:30KC +18% win prob(6:30) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 48 yards to KC 11, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 17-M.Hardman MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by BUF-25-T.Jones at KC 3.
Q3 · 5:05KC +9% win prob(5:05) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 10-T.Hill pushed ob at BUF 4 for 71 yards (23-M.Hyde; 24-T.Johnson).
Q2 · 12:26KC +8% win prob(12:26) 17-M.Hardman left end pushed ob at BUF 32 for 50 yards (23-M.Hyde).
Q1 · 12:44KC +8% win prob(12:44) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox pushed ob at KC 40 for 8 yards (35-C.Ward).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Chiefs
Offensive plays	71	60
Total yards	363	443 (edge)
Yards per play	5.1	7.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.01	0.46 (edge)
Success rate	51%	60% (edge)
Dropback rate	82%	65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.07	0.56 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.37 (edge)	0.28
Third downs	5/14	6/9 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	22	27 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.46 expected points added per play vs 0.01.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

29/38, 325 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

21.9 expected points added · +7.2% completion over expected

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

28/48, 287 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-8.7 expected points added · -2.1% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

7 att, 88 yds, 0 TD

7.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Darrel WilliamsRB

13 att, 52 yds, 1 TD

3.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Tyreek HillWR

9/11 for 172 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 10.9 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

13/15 for 118 yds, 2 TD

39% of team targets · 11.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BUF	BUF 25	11	42	3:33	Turnover on downs
2	KC	KC 35	5	6	1:29	Punt
3	BUF	BUF 15	7	26	3:39	Punt
4	BUF	KC 3	2	3	0:05	Touchdown
5	KC	KC 20	16	80	6:58	Touchdown
6	BUF	BUF 25	7	11	1:50	Punt
7	KC	KC 18	6	82	2:51	Touchdown
8	BUF	BUF 25	5	7	1:04	Punt
9	KC	KC 23	10	77	4:19	Touchdown
10	BUF	BUF 25	13	73	4:01	Turnover on downs
11	KC	KC 31	2	0	0:11	End of half
12	KC	KC 25	11	48	4:12	Turnover on downs
13	BUF	BUF 25	11	67	4:59	Turnover on downs
14	KC	KC 25	6	73	2:20	Touchdown
15	BUF	BUF 25	13	55	5:18	Interception
16	KC	KC 42	12	58	5:35	Touchdown
17	BUF	BUF 25	12	63	3:28	Touchdown
18	KC	KC 49	6	16	0:54	Turnover on downs
19	KC	BUF 47	9	19	3:14	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 82 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	28/48	287	2	1	4	-8.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Josh Allen	7	88	12.6	7.0
Devin Singletary	6	17	2.8	-1.9
T.J. Yeldon	3	15	5.0	1.4
Isaiah McKenzie	2	9	4.5	3.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cole Beasley	7	9	88	0	20%	3.0
Stefon Diggs	6	11	77	0	25%	2.8
Dawson Knox	6	8	42	1	18%	4.1
T.J. Yeldon	4	5	41	0	11%	0.4
John Brown	2	4	24	0	9%	-5.0
Devin Singletary	2	3	9	0	7%	-1.0
Isaiah McKenzie	1	1	6	1	2%	1.8
Gabe Davis	0	3	0	0	7%	-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Jordan Poyer	6	2	0
Matt Milano	3	4	0
Tre'Davious White	4	3	0
Tremaine Edmunds	2	5	0
Taron Johnson	3	2	2
Mario Addison	4	1	0
Levi Wallace	2	1	0
Micah Hyde	2	1	0
Vernon Butler	1	1	0
Harrison Phillips	1	1	0

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	29/38	325	3	0	1	21.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Darrel Williams	13	52	4.0	1	3.5
Mecole Hardman	1	50	50.0	0	3.2
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	6	7	1.2	1	-1.6
Patrick Mahomes	5	5	1.0	0	-2.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyreek Hill	9	11	172	0	29%	10.9
Travis Kelce	13	15	118	2	39%	11.7
Byron Pringle	3	5	22	0	13%	0.5
Darrel Williams	1	1	9	0	3%	1.9
Mecole Hardman	2	3	4	1	8%	0.6
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	1	2	0	0	5%	-2.7
Nick Keizer	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Charvarius Ward	6	1	0.0	1
Bashaud Breeland	7	0	0.0	1
Anthony Hitchens	6	1	0.0	0
Tyrann Mathieu	6	0	0.0	0
Daniel Sorensen	5	1	0.0	0
L'Jarius Sneed	4	1	1.0	0
Frank Clark	2	1	2.0	0
Ben Niemann	2	0	0.0	0
Tanoh Kpassagnon	1	0	1.0	0
Chris Lammons	1	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -3
Closing total: 54.5
BUF moneyline: +142
KC moneyline: -158

Chiefs closed -3 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 54.5; the game landed 62 — over by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather: 40°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: BUF 8 days · KC 7 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Andy Reid