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1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bills.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Bills169 of 180 plays carry both curves
(6:30) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 48 yards to KC 11, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 17-M.Hardman MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by BUF-25-T.Jones at KC 3.
Swing −17.9 for ChiefsExpected points −6.98 for ChiefsThe model had Bills 2 points higher than the market did.play 24
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 6:30KC +18% win prob(6:30) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 48 yards to KC 11, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 17-M.Hardman MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by BUF-25-T.Jones at KC 3.
3rd · 5:05KC +9% win prob(5:05) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 10-T.Hill pushed ob at BUF 4 for 71 yards (23-M.Hyde; 24-T.Johnson).
2nd · 12:26KC +8% win prob(12:26) 17-M.Hardman left end pushed ob at BUF 32 for 50 yards (23-M.Hyde).
1st · 12:44KC +8% win prob(12:44) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox pushed ob at KC 40 for 8 yards (35-C.Ward).
2nd · 12:42BUF +7% win prob(12:42) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right [32-T.Mathieu]. PENALTY on BUF-17-J.Allen, Intentional Grounding, 16 yards, enforced at KC 49.
2nd · 14:20KC +7% win prob(14:20) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 17-M.Hardman for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Darrel Williams's 6-yard rushing touchdown with 9:40 left in the 2nd put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:32Tyler Bass·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.Ferguson+33–0
1st6:19Dawson Knox·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Josh Allenfrom Josh Allen · kick no good, hit right upright+69–0
2nd14:20Mecole Hardman·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+79–7
2nd9:40Darrel Williams·6-yd TD run6-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+79–14
2nd0:14Tyler Bass·20-yd field goal20-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.Ferguson+312–21
3rd10:53Harrison Butker·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+312–24
3rd5:52Tyler Bass·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.Ferguson+315–24
3rd3:34Travis Kelce·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+715–31
4th7:41Travis Kelce·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+715–38
4th4:11Isaiah McKenzie·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Josh Allenfrom Josh Allen · two-point no good+621–38
4th3:19Tyler Bass·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.Ferguson+324–38
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Billscategory by categoryChiefs
Bills1–8Chiefs
363Total yards443
5.1Yards per play7.4
51%Success rate60%
36%Third-down rate67%
2Red-zone touchdowns5
8Explosive plays5
22First downs27
4Sacks taken1
1Turnovers0
The read
Chiefs ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.56 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.01Bills: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.46Chiefs: +0.46 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.07Bills: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.56Chiefs: +0.56 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.37Bills: +0.37 expected points added per play
+0.28Chiefs: +0.28 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 71 snaps at a 82% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 60 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Bills 6, Chiefs 6.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.46 expected points added per play vs 0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BUF's early-down pass rate, 81.5%, sat 19.5 points above their season number of 61.9% — they passed early by 2.1 times their own 9.4-point weekly swing.
54 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2020 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 33 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.9 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−1.15× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Chiefs17.2%
right on their number · +1.6 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.29× that swing) · 58 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBUF's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 81.5%, 19.5 points above their season mean of 61.9% and 2.1 times their own 9.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
65Ike BoettgerG · Every snap100%72 snaps
75Daryl WilliamsT · Every snap100%72 snaps
73Dion DawkinsT · Every snap100%72 snaps
17Josh AllenQB · Every snap100%72 snaps
60Mitch MorseC · Every snap100%72 snaps
76Jon FelicianoG · Every snap100%72 snaps
15John BrownWR · Full-time97%70 snaps
14Stefon DiggsWR · Full-time94%68 snaps
11Cole BeasleyWR · Full-time83%60 snaps
88Dawson KnoxTE · Heavy rotation65%47 snaps
26Devin SingletaryRB · Heavy rotation53%38 snaps
22T.J. YeldonRB · Heavy rotation51%37 snaps
13Gabriel DavisWR · Situational22%16 snaps
19Isaiah McKenzieWR · Situational21%15 snaps
85Lee SmithTE · Situational10%7 snaps
86Reggie GilliamTE · Situational1%1 snap
18Andre RobertsWR · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Jordan DeveyCDane JacksonCBTrent MurphyDETyrel DodsonMLBJake FrommQBTyler KroftTEKenny StillsWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Bojorquez punts+18% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(6:30) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 48 yards to KC 11, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 17-M.Hardman MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by BUF-25-T.Jones at KC 3.
Q1 6:30 · Bills · 4th & 8 at BUF 41 · gained nothing · +6.98 EP · +17.5% win probability
167 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 180 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 82 yards from the KC 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
+0.20
Success rate
50%
Yards
802
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51-0.0475%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50+0.5472%
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR16+0.1681%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.0650%
Bills2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Bills1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Bills3Chiefs0
Field goal11 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Chiefs 33
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 35 to the Chiefs 41
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 15 to the Bills 41
Bills9Chiefs0
Touchdown2 plays
The period ended14 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Bills 14
2nd quarter52 plays
Bills9Chiefs6
Bills9Chiefs7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Bills 6 to the Bills 3
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Chiefs 49
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Bills9Chiefs13
Bills9Chiefs14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chiefs 18 to the Bills 6
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 32
Bills9Chiefs20
Bills9Chiefs21
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chiefs 23 to the Bills 1
Bills12Chiefs21
Field goal16 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Chiefs 2
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Bills12Chiefs24
Field goal11 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Bills 27
Bills15Chiefs24
Field goal13 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Chiefs 8
Bills15Chiefs30
Bills15Chiefs31
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Bills 1
The period ended9 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Chiefs 45
4th quarter48 plays
Intercepted5 plays, from the Chiefs 42 to the Chiefs 20
Bills15Chiefs37
Bills15Chiefs38
Touchdown12 plays, from the Chiefs 42 to the Bills 5
Bills21Chiefs38
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Chiefs 6
Bills24Chiefs38
Field goal6 plays
The period ended13 plays, from the Bills 47 to the Bills 13
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
