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DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:24 AM ET · 16 to play
2020 Conference Championship · Sun, Jan 24, 2021 · Lambeau Field
Final
BuccaneersTampa Bay31
BY 5final margin
PackersGreen Bay26
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31 at Green Bay Packers 26. Final.
Packers -3 upset
The verdict · 2020 Conference Championship
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31, Packers 26 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 14:15, 3rd and 3, on Marquez Valdes-Scantling — 16.6 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 14:15 · 3rd and 3
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Packers
(14:15) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
O 53 ✓
32°F
Packers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31–26. Biggest swing: Q2 14:15, Packers +16.6% win probability on one snap.
16.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Chris GodwinBuccaneersQ2 13:20(13:20) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 14-C.Godwin to GB 20 for 52 yards (23-J.Alexander).
13.5pts
Jaire AlexanderPackersQ4 12:34(12:34) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Alexander at GB 3. 23-J.Alexander to GB 19 for 16 yards (14-C.Godwin).
15.1pts
What separated them
Red zone
Buccaneers won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Packers at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Packers owned this one and still lost it — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Buccaneers at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Packers owned this one and still lost it — 2 giveaways, against Buccaneers at 3 giveaways.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Packers owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Buccaneers at 5 chunk plays.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Buccaneers164 of 177 plays carry both curves
(14:15) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +16.6 for PackersExpected points +5.12 for PackersModel and market agree here.play 37
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 14:15GB +17% win prob(14:15) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 12:34TB +15% win prob(12:34) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Alexander at GB 3. 23-J.Alexander to GB 19 for 16 yards (14-C.Godwin).
2nd · 13:20GB +13% win prob(13:20) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 14-C.Godwin to GB 20 for 52 yards (23-J.Alexander).
2nd · 0:08GB +13% win prob(:08) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 10-S.Miller for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 12:33GB +12% win prob(12:33) 73-J.Haeg reported in as eligible. 28-L.Fournette right end for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 2:17GB +10% win prob(2:17) 8-B.Pinion punts 34 yards to GB 13, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 16-T.Austin.
4th · 11:32
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Leonard Fournette's 20-yard rushing touchdown with 12:33 left in the 2nd put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:04Mike Evans·15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+77–0
4th4:46Ryan Succop·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap Z.Triner+331–23
4th2:09Mason Crosby·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap H.Bradley+331–26
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Buccaneerscategory by categoryPackers
Buccaneers4–5Packers
352Total yards381
5.9Yards per play5.4
40%Success rate47%
64%Third-down rate57%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
5Explosive plays7
16First downs23
1Sacks taken5
3Turnovers2
The read
Packers ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Buccaneers, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.11Buccaneers: +0.11 expected points added per play
+0.04Packers: +0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.25Buccaneers: +0.25 expected points added per play
+0.04Packers: +0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.12Buccaneers: −0.12 expected points added per play
+0.02Packers: +0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 60 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Packers’s 70 at 77%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 4, Packers 5.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs 0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
GB's early-down pass rate, 72.7%, sat 20.3 points above their season number of 52.4% — they passed early by 2.6 times their own 7.7-point weekly swing.
55 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2020 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 29 pts
right on their number · −2.2 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 54 dropbacks
Packers10.8%
right on their number · −2.0 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (−0.44× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteGB's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 72.7%, 20.3 points above their season mean of 52.4% and 2.6 times their own 7.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Brady pass+17% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(13:20) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 14-C.Godwin to GB 20 for 52 yards (23-J.Alexander).
Q2 13:20 · Buccaneers · 3rd & 9 at TB 28 · gained 52 · +4.69 EP · +16.6% win probability
162 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 90 yards from the GB 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
45%
Yards
732
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46-0.1185%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.2672%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22+0.3664%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.1963%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.0250%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.1517%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Buccaneers0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR1——
Buccaneers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Buccaneers6Packers0
Buccaneers7Packers0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Buccaneers 34 to the Packers 15
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 43
Punt10 plays, from the Buccaneers 27 to the Buccaneers 49
The period ended6 plays, from the Packers 10 to the Packers 43
2nd quarter51 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Buccaneers7Packers6
Buccaneers7Packers7
Touchdown3 plays, from the Packers 48 to midfield
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Buccaneers13Packers7
Buccaneers14Packers7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Buccaneers 27 to the Packers 20
Buccaneers14Packers10
Field goal17 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Buccaneers 6
Punt8 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Packers 47
Intercepted6 plays, from the Packers 13 to the Packers 40
Buccaneers20Packers10
Buccaneers21Packers10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Buccaneers 49 to the Packers 39
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 30
Buccaneers27Packers10
Buccaneers28Packers10
Touchdown2 plays
Buccaneers28Packers16
Buccaneers28Packers17
Touchdown10 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Buccaneers 8
Intercepted5 plays, from the Buccaneers 24 to the Buccaneers 38
Buccaneers28Packers23
Touchdown15 plays, from the Packers 32 to the Buccaneers 2
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter52 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Buccaneers 47 to the Packers 27
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 19 to the Packers 24
Intercepted3 plays, from the Buccaneers 38 to the Buccaneers 46
Punt4 plays
Buccaneers31Packers23
Field goal8 plays, from the Buccaneers 28 to the Packers 28
Buccaneers31Packers26
Field goal10 plays, from the Packers 34 to the Buccaneers 8
The period ended17 plays, from the Buccaneers 17 to the Packers 37
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Packers -3
Closing total
53
Buccaneers moneyline
+157
Packers moneyline
-176
Packers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 53; the game landed 57 — over by 4.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lambeau Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Freezing, 32°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the west; overcast.
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
Buccaneers 7 days · Packers 8 days
Coaches
Bruce Arians vs Matt LaFleur
TB +9% win prob
(11:32) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at GB 14 for -10 yards (58-S.Barrett).
3rd · 14:10TB +9% win prob(14:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 33-A.Jones to GB 32 for 2 yards (33-J.Whitehead). FUMBLES (33-J.Whitehead), RECOVERED by TB-45-D.White at GB 29. 45-D.White to GB 8 for 21 yards (62-L.Patrick; 74-E.Jenkins). GB-33-A.Jones was injured during the play.
