2020 Conference Championship · Sun, Jan 24, 2021 · Lambeau Field

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

Green Bay Packers

GB -3 upsetO 53 ✓29°FPackers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31–26. Biggest swing: Q2 14:15, GB +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 14:15TB — GB GB ball · 3rd & 3TB 59%

(14:15) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 14:15GB +17% win prob(14:15) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 12:34TB +15% win prob(12:34) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Alexander at GB 3. 23-J.Alexander to GB 19 for 16 yards (14-C.Godwin).
Q2 · 13:20GB +13% win prob(13:20) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 14-C.Godwin to GB 20 for 52 yards (23-J.Alexander).
Q2 · 0:08GB +13% win prob(:08) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 10-S.Miller for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Packers
Offensive plays	60	70
Total yards	352	381 (edge)
Yards per play	5.9 (edge)	5.4
Expected points added / play	0.11 (edge)	0.04
Success rate	40%	47% (edge)
Dropback rate	62%	77%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.25 (edge)	0.04
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.12	0.02 (edge)
Third downs	9/14 (edge)	8/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	16	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	5
Turnovers	3	2 (edge)

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs 0.04.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

33/48, 346 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

6.8 expected points added · +4.4% completion over expected

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

20/36, 280 yds, 3 TD, 3 INT

9.3 expected points added · -2.5% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Leonard FournetteRB

12 att, 55 yds, 1 TD

0.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · GB

Aaron JonesRB

6 att, 27 yds, 0 TD

0.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR

4/6 for 115 yds, 1 TD

13% of team targets · 8.3 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Chris GodwinWR

5/9 for 110 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 9.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 34	11	66	4:01	Touchdown
2	GB	GB 25	7	10	3:26	Punt
3	TB	TB 27	10	17	4:44	Punt
4	GB	GB 10	8	90	3:42	Touchdown
5	TB	TB 27	6	73	1:43	Touchdown
6	GB	GB 25	16	69	7:25	Turnover on downs
7	TB	TB 25	8	28	2:49	Punt
8	GB	GB 13	5	20	1:42	Interception
9	TB	TB 49	6	51	0:27	Touchdown
10	GB	—	1	0	0:01	End of half
11	GB	GB 25	4	4	1:02	Fumble
12	TB	GB 8	2	8	0:04	Touchdown
13	GB	GB 25	10	75	4:26	Touchdown
14	TB	TB 24	5	14	1:34	Interception
15	GB	GB 32	14	60	7:30	Touchdown
16	TB	TB 45	7	22	3:04	Interception
17	GB	GB 19	4	-5	1:41	Punt
18	TB	TB 38	3	8	1:24	Interception
19	GB	GB 24	4	0	1:05	Punt
20	TB	TB 28	8	44	3:28	Turnover on downs
21	GB	GB 34	10	58	2:37	Turnover on downs
22	TB	TB 17	8	21	2:05	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 90 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	20/36	280	3	3	1	9.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Leonard Fournette	12	55	4.6	1	0.4
Ronald Jones	10	16	1.6	0	-3.3
Chris Godwin	1	6	6.0	0	0.1
Tom Brady	1	-1	-1.0	0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chris Godwin	5	9	110	0	26%	9.9
Mike Evans	3	8	51	1	23%	-4.5
Scott Miller	2	3	36	1	9%	4.0
Rob Gronkowski	1	1	29	0	3%	2.5
Leonard Fournette	5	7	19	0	20%	-1.3
Cameron Brate	3	5	19	1	14%	0.2
Tyler Johnson	1	2	16	0	6%	1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Devin White	9	6	0.0	0	0
Carlton Davis	4	3	0.0	0	0
Andrew Adams	3	2	0.0	0	1
Sean Murphy-Bunting	5	0	0.0	1	1
Jason Pierre-Paul	3	2	2.0	0	0
Shaquil Barrett	4	1	3.0	0	0
Jordan Whitehead	3	1	0.0	0	0
Lavonte David	2	2	0.0	0	1
Mike Edwards	2	1	0.0	0	0
Steve McLendon	1	2	0.0	0	0

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	33/48	346	3	1	5	6.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Aaron Jones	6	27	4.5	0.8
Jamaal Williams	7	23	3.3	-1.1
A.J. Dillon	3	17	5.7	0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	4	6	115	1	13%	8.3
Davante Adams	9	15	67	1	33%	3.2
Allen Lazard	3	6	62	0	13%	2.0
Marcedes Lewis	3	3	28	0	7%	2.3
Jamaal Williams	4	4	22	0	9%	0.5
Robert Tonyan	4	4	22	1	9%	1.8
A.J. Dillon	1	1	13	0	2%	0.7
Equanimeous St. Brown	1	1	10	0	2%	-0.1
Aaron Jones	4	6	7	0	13%	-8.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kenny Clark	4	3	1.0	0	0
Chandon Sullivan	4	1	0.0	0	0
Kevin King	4	0	0.0	0	0
Christian Kirksey	2	2	0.0	0	0
Dean Lowry	1	3	0.0	0	0
Jaire Alexander	2	1	0.0	2	3
Ty Summers	3	0	0.0	0	0
Krys Barnes	1	2	0.0	0	0
Za'Darius Smith	1	2	0.0	0	0
Adrian Amos	2	1	0.0	1	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: GB -3
Closing total: 53
TB moneyline: +157
GB moneyline: -176

Packers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 53; the game landed 57 — over by 4.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lambeau Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 29°F, wind 10 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: TB 7 days · GB 8 days
Coaches: Bruce Arians vs Matt LaFleur