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Chiefs 9 – Buccaneers 31 (2020 Super Bowl) | Box Score, Drive Chart & Win Probability | Dynatyze
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 1:09 AM ET · 16 to play
2020 Super Bowl · Sun, Feb 7, 2021 · Raymond James Stadium
Final
ChiefsKansas City9
BY 22final margin
BuccaneersTampa Bay31
Kansas City Chiefs 9 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31. Final.
Chiefs -3 upset
The verdict · 2020 Super Bowl
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31, Chiefs 9 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 0:41, 2nd and 5, on Rob Gronkowski — 8.5 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 0:41 · 2nd and 5
Rob Gronkowski
Buccaneers
(:41) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 87-R.Gronkowski for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
U 55 ✓
Chiefs closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31–9 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 0:41, Buccaneers +8.5% win probability on one snap.
8.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Tyreek HillChiefsQ2 10:50(10:50) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 10-T.Hill to KC 15 for 14 yards (33-J.Whitehead).
8.4pts
Ryan SuccopBuccaneersQ2 6:15(6:15) 3-R.Succop 40 yard field goal is GOOD, NULLIFIED by Penalty, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. PENALTY on KC-17-M.Hardman, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at KC 22 - No Play.
7.6pts
What separated them
Red zone
Buccaneers won this one — 3 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Chiefs at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Buccaneers won this one — no giveaways, against Chiefs at 2 giveaways.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Buccaneers won this one — +0.29 expected points per dropback, against Chiefs at -0.20 expected points per dropback.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Buccaneers won this one — 53% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chiefs at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Chiefs171 of 182 plays carry both curves
(:41) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 87-R.Gronkowski for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +8.5 for BuccaneersExpected points +1.90 for BuccaneersThe model had Buccaneers 18 points higher than the market did.play 37
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 0:41TB +8% win prob(:41) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 87-R.Gronkowski for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 10:50TB +8% win prob(10:50) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 10-T.Hill to KC 15 for 14 yards (33-J.Whitehead).
2nd · 6:15TB +8% win prob(6:15) 3-R.Succop 40 yard field goal is GOOD, NULLIFIED by Penalty, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. PENALTY on KC-17-M.Hardman, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at KC 22 - No Play.
2nd · 6:11TB +6% win prob(6:11) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 87-R.Gronkowski for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-21-B.Breeland, Defensive Holding, declined.
2nd · 0:24TB +5% win prob(:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep left to 13-M.Evans. PENALTY on KC-21-B.Breeland, Defensive Pass Interference, 34 yards, enforced at TB 42 - No Play.
1st · 9:22KC +5% win prob(9:22) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at TB 29 for -6 yards (55-F.Clark).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Rob Gronkowski's 8-yard touchdown catch with 0:41 left in the 1st put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st5:14Harrison Butker·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+33–0
1st0:41Rob Gronkowski·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom BradyLead never changed again+73–7
2nd6:11Rob Gronkowski·17-yd TD catch17-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+73–14
2nd1:04Harrison Butker·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+36–14
2nd0:10Antonio Brown·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+76–21
3rd11:31Harrison Butker·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+39–21
3rd2:50Ryan Succop·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap Z.Triner+39–31
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chiefscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Chiefs2–7Buccaneers
351Total yards342
5.2Yards per play5.7
43%Success rate53%
23%Third-down rate36%
0Red-zone touchdowns3
8Explosive plays5
19First downs20
3Sacks taken1
2Turnovers0
The read
Buccaneers ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.14Chiefs: −0.14 expected points added per play
+0.14Buccaneers: +0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.20Chiefs: −0.20 expected points added per play
+0.29Buccaneers: +0.29 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.14Chiefs: +0.14 expected points added per play
−0.01Buccaneers: −0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 68 snaps at a 82% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 60 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 3, Buccaneers 6.
NoteChiefs outgained Buccaneers 351-342 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2020 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 29 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.0 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−1.64× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Buccaneers16.1%
right on their number · −0.9 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−0.12× that swing) · 56 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteKC's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 6.7%, 9.0 points below their season mean of 15.6% and 1.6 times their own 5.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
73Nick AllegrettiG · Every snap100%75 snaps
77Andrew WylieT · Every snap100%75 snaps
61Stefen WisniewskiG · Every snap100%75 snaps
62Austin ReiterC · Every snap100%75 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Every snap100%75 snaps
75Mike RemmersT · Every snap100%75 snaps
10Tyreek HillWR · Full-time92%69 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Full-time92%69 snaps
11Demarcus RobinsonWR · Heavy rotation60%45 snaps
13Byron PringleWR · Heavy rotation59%44 snaps
31Darrel WilliamsRB · Heavy rotation55%41 snaps
25Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB · Rotational45%34 snaps
17Mecole HardmanWR · Rotational31%23 snaps
14Sammy WatkinsWR · Rotational31%23 snaps
19Marcus KempWR · Situational13%10 snaps
48Nick KeizerTE · Situational11%8 snaps
82Deon YelderTE · Situational8%6 snaps
42Anthony ShermanRB · Situational4%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
Chris LammonsCBThakarius KeyesCBTim WardDEKhalen SaundersDTMatt MooreQBDarwin ThompsonRBRicky Seals-JonesTE
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Ryan Succop+7% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(6:15) 3-R.Succop 40 yard field goal is GOOD, NULLIFIED by Penalty, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. PENALTY on KC-17-M.Hardman, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at KC 22 - No Play.
Q2 6:15 · Buccaneers · 4th & 5 at KC 22 · gained nothing · +2.13 EP · +7.3% win probability
169 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 182 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 75 yards from the TB 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
46%
Yards
690
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR61-0.1579%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.1963%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR10+0.2430%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.6156%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.4714%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.1160%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR3——
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Buccaneers0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR2——
Buccaneers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 23 to the Buccaneers 27
Punt7 plays, from the Chiefs 33 to the Chiefs 49
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Buccaneers 35
Chiefs3Buccaneers0
Field goal9 plays, from the Chiefs 38 to the Buccaneers 30
Chiefs3Buccaneers6
Chiefs3Buccaneers7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Chiefs 8
The period ended4 plays
2nd quarter54 plays
Punt2 plays
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Chiefs 1
Punt6 plays, from the Chiefs 1 to the Chiefs 17
Chiefs3Buccaneers13
Chiefs3Buccaneers14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chiefs 38 to the Chiefs 17
Chiefs6Buccaneers14
Field goal11 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Buccaneers 14
Chiefs6Buccaneers20
Chiefs6Buccaneers21
Touchdown13 plays, from the Buccaneers 29 to the Chiefs 1
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Chiefs9Buccaneers21
Field goal8 plays, from the Chiefs 19 to the Buccaneers 34
Chiefs9Buccaneers27
Chiefs9Buccaneers28
Touchdown8 plays, from the Buccaneers 26 to the Chiefs 27
Intercepted4 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 28
Chiefs9Buccaneers31
Field goal8 plays, from the Chiefs 45 to the Chiefs 19
The period ended10 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Buccaneers 29
4th quarter48 plays
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Buccaneers 29 to the Buccaneers 11
Punt10 plays, from the Buccaneers 12 to the Chiefs 46
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Chiefs 8 to the Buccaneers 27
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 13 to the Buccaneers 19
Intercepted10 plays, from the Chiefs 42 to the Buccaneers 10
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
