2020 Super Bowl · Sun, Feb 7, 2021 · Raymond James Stadium

Kansas City Chiefs

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

KC -3 upsetU 55 ✓Chiefs closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31–9 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 0:41, TB +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 0:41KC — TB TB ball · 2nd & 5KC 60%

(:41) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 87-R.Gronkowski for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 0:41TB +8% win prob(:41) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 87-R.Gronkowski for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 10:50TB +8% win prob(10:50) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 10-T.Hill to KC 15 for 14 yards (33-J.Whitehead).
Q2 · 6:15TB +8% win prob(6:15) 3-R.Succop 40 yard field goal is GOOD, NULLIFIED by Penalty, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. PENALTY on KC-17-M.Hardman, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at KC 22 - No Play.
Q2 · 6:11TB +6% win prob(6:11) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 87-R.Gronkowski for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-21-B.Breeland, Defensive Holding, declined.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chiefs	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	68	60
Total yards	351 (edge)	342
Yards per play	5.2	5.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.14	0.14 (edge)
Success rate	43%	53% (edge)
Dropback rate	82%	50%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.20	0.29 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.14 (edge)	-0.01
Third downs	3/13	4/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	19	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Chiefs outgained Buccaneers 351–342 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

26/49, 270 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-14.1 expected points added · -8.8% completion over expected

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

21/29, 201 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

8.7 expected points added · +3.8% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Leonard FournetteRB

16 att, 89 yds, 1 TD

3.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB

9 att, 64 yds, 0 TD

2.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

10/15 for 133 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 1.1 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Tyreek HillWR

7/10 for 73 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · -0.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 23	5	4	1:27	Punt
2	KC	KC 33	7	16	2:12	Punt
3	TB	TB 20	5	9	2:48	Punt
4	KC	KC 38	8	26	3:23	Turnover on downs
5	TB	TB 25	10	70	4:33	Touchdown
6	KC	KC 37	5	6	0:47	Punt
7	TB	TB 30	9	54	4:00	Turnover on downs
8	KC	KC 1	5	16	1:47	Punt
9	TB	KC 38	7	28	2:58	Touchdown
10	KC	KC 25	11	61	5:04	Turnover on downs
11	TB	TB 29	7	29	0:55	Touchdown
12	KC	KC 25	2	0	0:06	End of half
13	KC	KC 19	8	47	3:34	Turnover on downs
14	TB	TB 26	8	74	3:41	Touchdown
15	KC	KC 25	4	-3	1:25	Interception
16	TB	KC 45	8	26	3:34	Turnover on downs
17	KC	KC 25	12	64	4:14	Turnover on downs
18	TB	TB 12	10	42	5:26	Punt
19	KC	KC 8	10	60	4:08	Turnover on downs
20	TB	TB 13	4	6	0:28	Punt
21	KC	KC 42	9	58	1:57	Interception
22	TB	TB 20	3	0	1:33	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 74 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	26/49	270	0	2	3	-14.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	9	64	7.1	2.5
Patrick Mahomes	5	33	6.6	2.6
Tyreek Hill	1	5	5.0	0.2
Darrel Williams	2	5	2.5	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Kelce	10	15	133	33%	1.1
Tyreek Hill	7	10	73	22%	-0.1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	2	3	23	7%	0.9
Sammy Watkins	1	1	13	2%	1.0
Demarcus Robinson	1	2	11	4%	2.0
Darrel Williams	2	7	10	15%	-6.6
Mecole Hardman	2	6	4	13%	-4.5
Byron Pringle	1	2	3	4%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Damien Wilson	6	4	0.0
Ben Niemann	4	5	0.0
Daniel Sorensen	3	3	0.0
Chris Jones	3	2	0.0
Charvarius Ward	3	2	0.0
Derrick Nnadi	1	4	0.0
Bashaud Breeland	3	1	0.0
Frank Clark	2	2	1.0
L'Jarius Sneed	2	1	0.0
Tyrann Mathieu	2	1	0.0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	21/29	201	3	0	1	8.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Leonard Fournette	16	89	5.6	1	3.5
Ronald Jones	12	61	5.1	0	-0.3
Tom Brady	4	-2	-0.5	0	-2.3
Scott Miller	1	-3	-3.0	0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Rob Gronkowski	6	7	67	2	24%	7.7
Leonard Fournette	4	4	46	0	14%	3.4
Mike Evans	1	1	31	0	3%	2.1
Cameron Brate	3	3	26	0	10%	1.5
Antonio Brown	5	6	22	1	21%	1.2
Chris Godwin	2	4	9	0	14%	-2.5
Ronald Jones	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5
Joe Haeg	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.9
Tanner Hudson	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5
Tyler Johnson	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Devin White	8	4	0.0	1	1
Sean Murphy-Bunting	3	3	0.0	0	1
Lavonte David	6	0	0.0	0	2
Antoine Winfield	4	2	0.0	1	2
Carlton Davis	3	2	0.0	0	0
Mike Edwards	2	2	0.0	0	1
Jamel Dean	4	0	0.0	0	1
Jason Pierre-Paul	3	0	0.0	0	1
Jordan Whitehead	2	0	0.0	0	0
Ndamukong Suh	1	1	1.5	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -3
Closing total: 55
KC moneyline: -161
TB moneyline: +145

Chiefs closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 55; the game landed 40 — under by 15.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 63°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: KC 14 days · TB 14 days
Coaches: Andy Reid vs Bruce Arians