For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:57 AM ET · 16 to play
2021 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 19, 2021 · Raymond James Stadium
Final
FalconsAtlanta25
BY 23final margin
BuccaneersTampa Bay48
Atlanta Falcons 25 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 48. Final.
Buccaneers -13.5 ✓O 52 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 48, Falcons 25 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 12:28, 3rd and 8, on Rob Gronkowski — 5.8 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 12:28 · 3rd and 8
Rob Gronkowski
Buccaneers
(12:28) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 87-R.Gronkowski for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Buccaneers closed -13.5 and covered, winning by 23.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 48–25 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:28, Buccaneers +5.8% win probability on one snap.
5.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Mike EvansBuccaneersQ1 15:00(15:00) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 13-M.Evans to TB 45 for 20 yards (22-F.Moreau).
5.8pts
Tom BradyFalconsQ1 7:47(7:47) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at ATL 29 for -6 yards (6-D.Fowler). FUMBLES (6-D.Fowler) [6-D.Fowler], RECOVERED by ATL-3-M.Walker at ATL 25. 3-M.Walker to ATL 29 for 4 yards (66-R.Jensen).
5.4pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Buccaneers won this one — +0.03 expected points per carry, against Falcons at -0.45 expected points per carry.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Buccaneers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Falcons at 3 giveaways.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Buccaneers won this one — +0.06 expected points per snap, against Falcons at -0.27 expected points per snap.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Buccaneers won this one — +0.08 expected points per dropback, against Falcons at -0.20 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 34 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Falcons172 of 180 plays carry both curves
(12:28) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 87-R.Gronkowski for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +5.8 for BuccaneersExpected points +3.25 for BuccaneersThe model had Falcons 27 points higher than the market did.play 8
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 12:28TB +6% win prob(12:28) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 87-R.Gronkowski for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 15:00TB +6% win prob(15:00) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 13-M.Evans to TB 45 for 20 yards (22-F.Moreau).
1st · 7:47ATL +5% win prob(7:47) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at ATL 29 for -6 yards (6-D.Fowler). FUMBLES (6-D.Fowler) [6-D.Fowler], RECOVERED by ATL-3-M.Walker at ATL 25. 3-M.Walker to ATL 29 for 4 yards (66-R.Jensen).
4th · 11:46ATL +4% win prob(11:46) (No Huddle) 84-C.Patterson up the middle to ATL 10 for -3 yards (56-R.Nunez-Roches).
4th · 11:01ATL +4% win prob(11:01) 9-C.Nizialek punts 33 yards to ATL 43, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.
3rd · 14:26ATL +4% win prob(14:26) (No Huddle) 2-M.Ryan pass short right intended for 14-R.Gage INTERCEPTED by 58-S.Barrett (50-V.Vea) at ATL 21. 58-S.Barrett to ATL 18 for 3 yards (40-K.Smith).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Rob Gronkowski's 20-yard touchdown catch with 12:28 left in the 1st put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:28Rob Gronkowski·20-yd TD catch20-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom BradyLead never changed again+70–7
2nd14:12Rob Gronkowski·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+70–14
Buccaneers ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Falcons, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.45 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.27Falcons: −0.27 expected points added per play
+0.06Buccaneers: +0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.20Falcons: −0.20 expected points added per play
+0.08Buccaneers: +0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.45Falcons: −0.45 expected points added per play
+0.03Buccaneers: +0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 70 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 57 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 5, Buccaneers 6.
NoteFalcons outgained Buccaneers 350-344 but lost the turnover battle 3-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ATL's pass rate over expected turned over: −10.2 pts in week 1 against +8.7 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
69 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points.
ATL's sack or hit rate turned over: 5.3% in week 1 against 15.0% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 3.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 28 pts
leaned — got home · +5.5 vs their 9.5%, and they swing ±3.9 week to week (+1.42× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Buccaneers14.0%
right on their number · −2.1 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−0.43× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTB's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 35.9 points above their season mean of 30.7% and 1.7 times their own 20.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
76Kaleb McGaryT · Every snap100%72 snaps
77Jalen MayfieldG · Every snap100%72 snaps
70Jake MatthewsT · Every snap100%72 snaps
63Chris LindstromG · Every snap100%72 snaps
61Matt HennessyC · Every snap100%72 snaps
2Matt RyanQB · Full-time92%66 snaps
18Calvin RidleyWR · Full-time83%60 snaps
8Kyle PittsTE · Heavy rotation79%57 snaps
28Mike DavisRB · Heavy rotation64%46 snaps
17Olamide ZaccheausWR · Heavy rotation58%42 snaps
14Russell GageWR · Heavy rotation53%38 snaps
81Hayden HurstTE · Rotational42%30 snaps
84Cordarrelle PattersonRB · Rotational33%24 snaps
40Keith SmithTE · Rotational25%18 snaps
13Christian BlakeWR · Situational18%13 snaps
85Lee SmithTE · Situational18%13 snaps
4Tajae SharpeWR · Situational18%13 snaps
46Parker HesseTE · Situational8%6 snaps
16Josh RosenQB · Situational8%6 snaps
Inactive · 5
Darren HallCBJohn CominskyDTFeleipe FranksQBWayne GallmanRBFrank DarbyWR
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Brady sacked−9% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(7:47) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at ATL 29 for -6 yards (6-D.Fowler). FUMBLES (6-D.Fowler) [6-D.Fowler], RECOVERED by ATL-3-M.Walker at ATL 25. 3-M.Walker to ATL 29 for 4 yards (66-R.Jensen).
Q1 7:47 · Buccaneers · 3rd & 20 at ATL 23 · lost 2 · -4.29 EP · −8.6% win probability
170 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 180 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 85 yards from the TB 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
-0.12
Success rate
45%
Yards
691
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.2175%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28-0.5271%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR26+0.0373%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.3658%
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR10+0.0870%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.0714%
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR6-1.42100%
Falcons0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR4——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Falcons0Buccaneers6
Falcons0Buccaneers7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Falcons 20
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 27 to the Falcons 34
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Buccaneers 36 to the Falcons 13
Punt8 plays, from the Falcons 29 to the Buccaneers 49
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Buccaneers 22
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Falcons 36 to the Falcons 45
The period ended4 plays, from the Falcons 46 to the Falcons 41
2nd quarter53 plays
Falcons0Buccaneers13
Falcons0Buccaneers14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Falcons 38 to the Falcons 1
Falcons6Buccaneers14
Falcons7Buccaneers14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Falcons 34 to the Buccaneers 10
Punt8 plays, from the Buccaneers 24 to the Buccaneers 48
Punt13 plays, from the Falcons 11 to the Buccaneers 48
Falcons7Buccaneers20
Falcons7Buccaneers21
Touchdown11 plays, from the Buccaneers 15 to the Falcons 3
Falcons10Buccaneers21
Field goal8 plays, from the Falcons 35 to the Buccaneers 18
3rd quarter44 plays
Intercepted3 plays, from the Falcons 12 to the Falcons 20
Falcons10Buccaneers27
Falcons10Buccaneers28
Touchdown6 plays, from the Falcons 18 to the Falcons 1
Falcons16Buccaneers28
Falcons17Buccaneers28
Touchdown15 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Buccaneers 1
Punt6 plays
Falcons23Buccaneers28
Falcons25Buccaneers28
Touchdown8 plays, from the Buccaneers 46 to the Buccaneers 7
The period ended6 plays, from the Buccaneers 32 to the Buccaneers 41
4th quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 4 to the Falcons 13
Falcons25Buccaneers34
Falcons25Buccaneers35
Touchdown4 plays, from the Falcons 43 to the Falcons 12
Falcons25Buccaneers41
Touchdown4 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 31
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 44
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Falcons 43 to the Falcons 34
Falcons25Buccaneers47
Touchdown1 play
Falcons25Buccaneers48
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Falcons 31 to the Falcons 48
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Buccaneers -13.5
Closing total
52
Falcons moneyline
+582
Buccaneers moneyline
-772
Buccaneers closed -13.5 and covered, winning by 23.
Total closed 52; the game landed 73 — over by 21.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 81°F at kickoff; still at 5 mph out of the north-west; 0.40 in of precipitation; moderate drizzle.
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
Falcons 7 days · Buccaneers 10 days
Coaches
Arthur Smith vs Bruce Arians
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
4th · 14:30
ATL +4% win prob
(14:30) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at TB 29 for -7 yards (45-D.Jones).
4th · 8:02ATL +3% win prob(8:02) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right intended for 14-R.Gage INTERCEPTED by 32-M.Edwards [92-W.Gholston] at ATL 31. 32-M.Edwards for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
