2021 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 19, 2021 · Raymond James Stadium

Atlanta Falcons

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

TB -13.5 ✓O 52 ✓Buccaneers closed -13.5 and covered, winning by 23.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 48–25 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:28, TB +6% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 12:28ATL — TB TB ball · 3rd & 8TB 90%

(12:28) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 87-R.Gronkowski for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 12:28TB +6% win prob(12:28) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 87-R.Gronkowski for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 15:00TB +6% win prob(15:00) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 13-M.Evans to TB 45 for 20 yards (22-F.Moreau).
Q1 · 7:47ATL +5% win prob(7:47) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at ATL 29 for -6 yards (6-D.Fowler). FUMBLES (6-D.Fowler) [6-D.Fowler], RECOVERED by ATL-3-M.Walker at ATL 25. 3-M.Walker to ATL 29 for 4 yards (66-R.Jensen).
Q4 · 11:46ATL +4% win prob(11:46) (No Huddle) 84-C.Patterson up the middle to ATL 10 for -3 yards (56-R.Nunez-Roches).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Falcons	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	70	57
Total yards	350 (edge)	344
Yards per play	5.0	6.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.27	0.06 (edge)
Success rate	44%	49% (edge)
Dropback rate	71%	70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.20	0.08 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.45	0.03 (edge)
Third downs	6/15 (edge)	4/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	18	19 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

Falcons outgained Buccaneers 350–344 but lost the turnover battle 3–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Matt RyanQB

35/46, 300 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT

-6.3 expected points added · +7.2% completion over expected

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

24/36, 276 yds, 5 TD, 0 INT

1.9 expected points added · +4.9% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Leonard FournetteRB

11 att, 52 yds, 0 TD

-1.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Mike DavisRB

9 att, 38 yds, 0 TD

-0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

5/9 for 75 yds, 2 TD

26% of team targets · 3.7 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

Kyle PittsTE

5/6 for 73 yds, 0 TD

13% of team targets · 0.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 25	8	75	2:38	Touchdown
2	ATL	ATL 27	5	7	1:09	Punt
3	TB	TB 36	8	54	3:33	Fumble
4	ATL	ATL 29	7	22	3:49	Punt
5	TB	TB 20	4	2	0:58	Punt
6	ATL	ATL 36	4	9	1:52	Turnover on downs
7	TB	ATL 46	6	30	1:54	Touchdown
8	ATL	ATL 34	7	66	2:19	Touchdown
9	TB	TB 24	8	24	1:43	Punt
10	ATL	ATL 11	10	39	5:51	Punt
11	TB	TB 15	9	85	3:31	Touchdown
12	ATL	ATL 35	5	22	0:43	Turnover on downs
13	ATL	ATL 12	3	8	0:41	Interception
14	TB	ATL 18	5	15	1:36	Touchdown
15	ATL	ATL 25	15	84	6:08	Touchdown
16	TB	TB 23	5	-10	1:54	Punt
17	ATL	TB 46	7	45	2:56	Touchdown
18	TB	TB 32	9	17	3:41	Punt
19	ATL	ATL 4	4	6	2:11	Punt
20	TB	ATL 43	4	43	1:35	Touchdown
21	ATL	ATL 25	4	6	1:25	Defensive touchdown
22	ATL	ATL 25	6	19	2:14	Turnover on downs
23	TB	ATL 43	4	9	1:31	Turnover on downs
24	ATL	ATL 34	1	0	0:07	Defensive touchdown
25	ATL	ATL 31	7	17	2:06	Turnover on downs
26	TB	ATL 48	3	0	1:55	End of game

0 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 85 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	35/46	300	2	3	1	-6.3
Josh Rosen	0/2	0	0	0	0	-2.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Mike Davis	9	38	4.2	0	-0.6
Cordarrelle Patterson	7	11	1.6	1	-4.7
Matt Ryan	2	3	1.5	0	-3.0
Keith Smith	2	3	1.5	0	-1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Kyle Pitts	5	6	73	0	13%	0.6
Calvin Ridley	7	10	63	1	21%	8.4
Cordarrelle Patterson	5	7	58	1	15%	-4.6
Russell Gage	5	7	28	0	15%	-10.4
Mike Davis	7	7	25	0	15%	-2.4
Olamide Zaccheaus	2	4	22	0	8%	0.9
Lee Smith	1	1	9	0	2%	0.8
Tajae Sharpe	1	2	8	0	4%	-2.1
Christian Blake	1	1	8	0	2%	1.2
Hayden Hurst	1	1	6	0	2%	1.2
Keith Smith	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.5
Parker Hesse	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Foyesade Oluokun	4	5	0.0	0
Duron Harmon	3	2	0.0	0
Erik Harris	5	0	0.0	0
Steven Means	1	3	0.0	0
Deion Jones	2	2	1.0	0
Fabian Moreau	3	0	0.0	0
Isaiah Oliver	2	1	0.0	1
Grady Jarrett	1	2	0.0	0
Tyeler Davison	1	2	0.0	0
Dante Fowler	2	1	1.0	0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	24/36	276	5	0	3	1.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Leonard Fournette	11	52	4.7	-1.4
Ronald Jones	6	27	4.5	1.9
Tom Brady	1	6	6.0	1.3
Blaine Gabbert	3	-3	-1.0	-2.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Evans	5	9	75	2	26%	3.7
Chris Godwin	4	5	62	1	14%	4.1
Rob Gronkowski	4	5	39	2	14%	4.9
Leonard Fournette	4	4	24	0	11%	-1.5
O.J. Howard	1	1	21	0	3%	1.8
Antonio Brown	1	3	17	0	9%	-0.0
Giovani Bernard	2	2	16	0	6%	-0.8
Ronald Jones	1	3	9	0	9%	-0.5
Cameron Brate	1	1	8	0	3%	0.2
Tyler Johnson	1	2	5	0	6%	-2.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Carlton Davis	8	1	0.0	0	1
Lavonte David	5	3	0.0	0	0
Devin White	3	3	0.0	0	0
Jordan Whitehead	4	1	0.0	0	0
Vita Vea	3	2	0.0	0	1
Jamel Dean	3	1	0.0	0	0
Antoine Winfield	3	1	0.0	0	1
Mike Edwards	4	0	0.0	2	3
Dee Delaney	1	2	0.0	0	0
Ndamukong Suh	2	1	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -13.5
Closing total: 52
ATL moneyline: +582
TB moneyline: -772

Buccaneers closed -13.5 and covered, winning by 23.

Total closed 52; the game landed 73 — over by 21.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 85°F, wind 0 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: ATL 7 days · TB 10 days
Coaches: Arthur Smith vs Bruce Arians

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.