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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
2021 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 19, 2021 · Hard Rock Stadium
Final
BillsBuffalo35
BY 35final margin
DolphinsMiami0
Buffalo Bills 35 at Miami Dolphins 0. Final.
Bills -3.5 ✓U 48 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 2
Buffalo Bills 35, Dolphins 0 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 12:41, 2nd and 10, on Devin Singletary — 10.1 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 12:41 · 2nd and 10
Devin Singletary
Bills
(12:41) 26-D.Singletary right guard for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Bills closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 35.
Buffalo Bills 35–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:41, Bills +10.1% win probability on one snap.
10.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Tua TagovailoaBillsQ1 15:00(15:00) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at MIA 18 for -7 yards (24-T.Johnson).
4.6pts
Unnamed on the sheetBillsQ2 0:38(:38) 3-M.Haack punts 45 yards to MIA 46, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 17-J.Waddle MUFFS catch, touched at MIA 44, RECOVERED by BUF-25-T.Jones at MIA 42. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
4.7pts
What separated them
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.16 expected points per snap, against Dolphins at -0.46 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Bills won this one — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Dolphins at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bills won this one — +0.25 expected points per carry, against Dolphins at -0.35 expected points per carry.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.10 expected points per dropback, against Dolphins at -0.49 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Bills167 of 178 plays carry both curves
(12:41) 26-D.Singletary right guard for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −10.1 for DolphinsExpected points −4.71 for DolphinsThe model had Dolphins 15 points higher than the market did.play 8
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 12:41MIA +10% win prob(12:41) 26-D.Singletary right guard for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:38MIA +5% win prob(:38) 3-M.Haack punts 45 yards to MIA 46, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 17-J.Waddle MUFFS catch, touched at MIA 44, RECOVERED by BUF-25-T.Jones at MIA 42. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
1st · 15:00BUF +5% win prob(15:00) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at MIA 18 for -7 yards (24-T.Johnson).
1st · 7:10MIA +4% win prob(7:10) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 14-S.Diggs for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-E.Ogbah].
2nd · 7:54BUF +4% win prob(7:54) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Howard at BUF 25. 25-X.Howard to BUF 24 for 1 yard (14-S.Diggs).
1st · 8:42MIA +4% win prob(8:42) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 1-E.Sanders to MIA 6 for 35 yards (24-By.Jones).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Devin Singletary's 46-yard rushing touchdown with 12:41 left in the 1st put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:41Devin Singletary·46-yd TD run46-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
Bills ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.49 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.16Bills: +0.16 expected points added per play
−0.46Dolphins: −0.46 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.10Bills: +0.10 expected points added per play
−0.49Dolphins: −0.49 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.25Bills: +0.25 expected points added per play
−0.35Dolphins: −0.35 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 62 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 69 at 77%. Red-zone trips: Bills 5, Dolphins 3.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.46.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 23 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.3 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.74× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
Dolphins19.4%
right on their number · +0.8 vs their 18.7%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+0.10× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIA's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 59.7 points above their season mean of 40.3% and 1.7 times their own 34.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 5 inactive
75Daryl WilliamsT · Every snap100%65 snaps
74Cody FordG · Every snap100%65 snaps
73Dion DawkinsT · Full-time97%63 snaps
17Josh AllenQB · Full-time97%63 snaps
60Mitch MorseC · Full-time97%63 snaps
76Jon FelicianoG · Full-time97%63 snaps
88Dawson KnoxTE · Full-time83%54 snaps
14Stefon DiggsWR · Heavy rotation78%51 snaps
1Emmanuel SandersWR · Heavy rotation77%50 snaps
26Devin SingletaryRB · Heavy rotation66%43 snaps
11Cole BeasleyWR · Heavy rotation60%39 snaps
13Gabriel DavisWR · Rotational32%21 snaps
20Zack MossRB · Rotational28%18 snaps
41Reggie GilliamFB · Situational22%14 snaps
19Isaiah McKenzieWR · Situational20%13 snaps
89Tommy SweeneyTE · Situational12%8 snaps
79Spencer BrownT · Situational11%7 snaps
15Jake KumerowWR · Situational8%5 snaps
23Micah HydeFS · Situational3%2 snaps
22Matt BreidaRB · Situational3%2 snaps
65Ike BoettgerG · Situational3%2 snaps
71Ryan BatesC · Situational3%2 snaps
10Mitchell TrubiskyQB · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 5
Carlos BashamDEEfe ObadaDEHarrison PhillipsDTAndre SmithILBTommy DoyleT
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Singletary right+14% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(12:41) 26-D.Singletary right guard for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 12:41 · Bills · 2nd & 10 at MIA 46 · gained 46 · +4.71 EP · +14.1% win probability
165 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 75 yards from the BUF 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
-0.13
Success rate
35%
Yards
530
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.3690%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.1364%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24-0.3342%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11+0.0727%
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR5-0.3180%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Bills0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR1——
Bills0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
Punt5 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defenders
Bills6Dolphins0
Bills7Dolphins0
Touchdown3 plays
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Dolphins 26 to the Bills 48
Bills13Dolphins0
Bills14Dolphins0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bills 48 to the Dolphins 5
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 32
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Bills 26 to the Bills 37
Intercepted5 plays, from the Bills 42 to the Bills 30
Punt4 plays
The period ended4 plays, from the Dolphins 21 to the Dolphins 27
2nd quarter54 plays
Fumble lost12 plays, from the Dolphins 36 to the Bills 11
Intercepted6 plays, from the Bills 11 to the Bills 21
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Bills 24 to the Bills 16
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 15 to the Bills 24
Punt12 plays, from the Dolphins 35 to the Bills 31
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 8 to the Bills 16
No good6 plays, from the Dolphins 42 to the Dolphins 35
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Bills20Dolphins0
Bills21Dolphins0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Dolphins 8
Punt9 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 46
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 23 to the Dolphins 46
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Dolphins 20 to the Dolphins 41
The period ended8 plays, from the Dolphins 41 to the Dolphins 19
4th quarter38 plays
Bills27Dolphins0
Bills28Dolphins0
Touchdown5 plays, from the Dolphins 17 to the Dolphins 7
Punt5 plays
Bills34Dolphins0
Bills35Dolphins0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bills 38 to the Dolphins 1
Turnover on downs15 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Bills 19
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bills -3.5
Closing total
48
Bills moneyline
-179
Dolphins moneyline
+160
Bills closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 35.
Total closed 48; the game landed 35 — under by 13.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 88°F at kickoff; still at 4 mph out of the north-east; 0.23 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
Bills 7 days · Dolphins 7 days
Coaches
Sean McDermott vs Brian Flores
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
1st · 13:34BUF +4% win prob(13:34) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at MIA 18 for -6 yards (23-M.Hyde).
1st · 4:01BUF +3% win prob(4:01) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 20-Z.Moss to BUF 43 for 6 yards (55-J.Baker). FUMBLES (55-J.Baker), RECOVERED by MIA-29-Br.Jones at BUF 48. 29-Br.Jones to BUF 45 for 3 yards (88-D.Knox). FUMBLES (88-D.Knox), recovered by MIA-8-J.Holland at BUF 45. 8-J.Holland to BUF 42 for 3 yards.
