2021 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 19, 2021 · Hard Rock Stadium

Buffalo BillsWinner

Miami Dolphins

BUF -3.5 ✓U 48 ✓Bills closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 35.

Buffalo Bills 35–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:41, MIA +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 12:41BUF — MIA BUF ball · 2nd & 10BUF 68%

(12:41) 26-D.Singletary right guard for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 12:41MIA +10% win prob(12:41) 26-D.Singletary right guard for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 0:38MIA +5% win prob(:38) 3-M.Haack punts 45 yards to MIA 46, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 17-J.Waddle MUFFS catch, touched at MIA 44, RECOVERED by BUF-25-T.Jones at MIA 42. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q1 · 15:00BUF +5% win prob(15:00) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at MIA 18 for -7 yards (24-T.Johnson).
Q1 · 7:10MIA +4% win prob(7:10) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 14-S.Diggs for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-E.Ogbah].

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Dolphins
Offensive plays	62	69
Total yards	316 (edge)	217
Yards per play	5.1 (edge)	3.1
Expected points added / play	0.16 (edge)	-0.46
Success rate	44% (edge)	32%
Dropback rate	58%	77%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.10 (edge)	-0.49
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.25 (edge)	-0.35
Third downs	7/13 (edge)	8/18
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	11
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	6
Turnovers	2	2

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.46.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

17/33, 179 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

3.8 expected points added · -2.5% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Jacoby BrissettQB

24/40, 169 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-14.2 expected points added · -9.0% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

Devin SingletaryRB

13 att, 82 yds, 1 TD

1.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

5 att, 35 yds, 0 TD

9.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Stefon DiggsWR

4/8 for 60 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 1.1 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Emmanuel SandersWR

2/6 for 48 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 0.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIA	MIA 25	5	-7	2:15	Punt
2	BUF	MIA 46	3	46	0:12	Touchdown
3	MIA	MIA 26	6	31	1:52	Turnover on downs
4	BUF	BUF 48	8	52	3:39	Touchdown
5	MIA	MIA 25	5	2	1:46	Punt
6	BUF	BUF 26	3	17	1:25	Fumble
7	MIA	BUF 42	4	1	1:55	Interception
8	BUF	BUF 29	4	-1	1:05	Punt
9	MIA	MIA 21	13	63	5:58	Fumble
10	BUF	BUF 11	5	10	2:07	Interception
11	MIA	BUF 24	4	9	2:08	Turnover on downs
12	BUF	BUF 15	4	9	2:17	Punt
13	MIA	MIA 35	10	47	2:06	Punt
14	BUF	BUF 8	5	13	0:46	Punt
15	BUF	MIA 42	4	7	0:23	Turnover on downs
16	MIA	MIA 42	1	0	0:06	End of half
17	BUF	BUF 25	10	60	3:12	Touchdown
18	MIA	MIA 25	8	21	2:49	Punt
19	BUF	BUF 23	6	8	2:38	Punt
20	MIA	MIA 20	7	21	2:22	Turnover on downs
21	BUF	MIA 41	12	33	5:21	Touchdown
22	MIA	MIA 25	5	-11	1:40	Punt
23	BUF	BUF 38	9	62	4:13	Touchdown
24	MIA	MIA 25	13	40	6:37	Turnover on downs
25	BUF	BUF 19	2	0	1:08	End of game

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 63 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a fumble.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	17/33	179	2	1	1	3.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Devin Singletary	13	82	6.3	1	1.2
Josh Allen	5	35	7.0	0	9.6
Zack Moss	8	26	3.3	2	1.8
Reggie Gilliam	2	2	1.0	0	-1.9
Mitchell Trubisky	2	-2	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Stefon Diggs	4	8	60	1	28%	1.1
Emmanuel Sanders	2	6	48	0	21%	0.9
Cole Beasley	4	4	36	0	14%	2.9
Dawson Knox	2	3	17	1	10%	1.7
Devin Singletary	2	3	9	0	10%	1.4
Zack Moss	2	2	8	0	7%	-3.4
Isaiah McKenzie	1	2	1	0	7%	-1.0
Jake Kumerow	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Tre'Davious White	6	2	0.0	1
Micah Hyde	4	3	1.0	0
Matt Milano	5	0	1.0	0
Dane Jackson	3	2	0.0	0
Gregory Rousseau	4	1	2.0	0
A.J. Klein	3	2	0.0	0
Jordan Poyer	4	0	0.0	1
Justin Zimmer	1	2	1.0	0
Taron Johnson	2	1	1.0	1
Tremaine Edmunds	1	2	0.0	0

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jacoby Brissett	24/40	169	0	1	4	-14.2
Tua Tagovailoa	1/4	13	0	0	2	-7.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Myles Gaskin	5	25	5.0	-1.1
Malcolm Brown	5	21	4.2	-2.8
Salvon Ahmed	6	17	2.8	-1.6
Jacoby Brissett	4	8	2.0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Jaylen Waddle	6	8	48	19%	-2.3
DeVante Parker	5	9	42	21%	5.4
Mike Gesicki	3	6	41	14%	-1.3
Myles Gaskin	4	5	21	12%	-2.0
Albert Wilson	4	6	20	14%	0.2
Cethan Carter	1	1	8	2%	0.5
Preston Williams	1	3	2	7%	-5.2
Salvon Ahmed	0	3	0	7%	-4.2
Jakeem Grant	1	1	0	2%	-4.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Zach Sieler	4	2	0.0	0
Brandon Jones	4	1	0.0	0
Andrew Van Ginkel	1	3	0.5	0
Emmanuel Ogbah	1	3	0.5	0
Jerome Baker	2	1	0.0	1
Christian Wilkins	0	3	0.0	1
Jason McCourty	3	0	0.0	0
Jevon Holland	2	1	0.0	0
Justin Coleman	3	0	0.0	0
Byron Jones	3	0	0.0	2

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -3.5
Closing total: 48
BUF moneyline: -179
MIA moneyline: +160

Bills closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 35.

Total closed 48; the game landed 35 — under by 13.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 89°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: BUF 7 days · MIA 7 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Brian Flores

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.