2021 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 19, 2021 · Soldier Field

Cincinnati Bengals

Chicago BearsWinner

CHI -2 ✓U 44.5 ✓Bears closed -2 and covered, winning by 3.

Chicago Bears 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 11:07, CIN +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 11:07CIN — CHI CIN ball · 3rd & 3CHI 81%

(11:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 58-R.Smith at CHI 47. 58-R.Smith for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 11:07CIN +15% win prob(11:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 58-R.Smith at CHI 47. 58-R.Smith for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 5:01CIN +15% win prob(5:01) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 85-T.Higgins to CIN 49 for 14 yards (4-E.Jackson) [90-A.Blackson]. FUMBLES (4-E.Jackson), RECOVERED by CHI-38-Ta.Gipson at CHI 48. 38-Ta.Gipson to CIN 39 for 13 yards (85-T.Higgins).
Q4 · 2:55CHI +14% win prob(2:55) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields scrambles left end to CHI 36 for 10 yards (96-C.Sample).
Q4 · 3:50CIN +13% win prob(3:50) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short middle intended for 84-M.Goodwin INTERCEPTED by 55-L.Wilson [30-J.Bates] at CHI 25. 55-L.Wilson to CHI 7 for 18 yards (8-D.Williams; 84-M.Goodwin).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bengals	Bears
Offensive plays	55	58
Total yards	248 (edge)	210
Yards per play	4.5 (edge)	3.6
Expected points added / play	-0.34	-0.24 (edge)
Success rate	42% (edge)	36%
Dropback rate	64%	57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.43	-0.14 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.19 (edge)	-0.37
Third downs	6/13 (edge)	6/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	5 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	13	13
Sacks taken	5	3 (edge)
Turnovers	4	1 (edge)

Bengals outgained Bears 248–210 but lost the turnover battle 4–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

19/30, 207 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT

-9.0 expected points added · -0.1% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

6/13, 60 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-9.7 expected points added · -8.3% completion over expected

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

20 att, 69 yds, 0 TD

-3.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

David MontgomeryRB

20 att, 61 yds, 0 TD

-6.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Tyler BoydWR

7/9 for 73 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · -7.0 expected points added

Receiving · CHI

Darnell MooneyWR

6/8 for 66 yds, 0 TD

35% of team targets · 2.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CHI	CHI 25	11	43	5:02	Touchdown
2	CIN	CIN 9	14	33	6:36	Punt
3	CHI	CHI 7	12	56	5:58	Turnover on downs
4	CIN	CIN 32	7	24	4:02	Turnover on downs
5	CHI	CHI 45	5	6	2:48	Punt
6	CIN	CIN 7	7	25	3:44	Punt
7	CHI	CHI 34	7	18	1:15	Punt
8	CIN	CIN 8	2	3	0:35	End of half
9	CIN	CIN 22	13	28	6:38	Turnover on downs
10	CHI	CHI 25	8	13	3:21	Punt
11	CIN	CIN 35	1	14	0:13	Fumble
12	CHI	CIN 39	8	39	4:56	Turnover on downs
13	CIN	CIN 17	7	35	3:57	Defensive touchdown
14	CIN	CIN 25	3	4	0:41	Interception
15	CHI	CIN 36	4	6	2:00	Punt
16	CIN	CIN 20	1	0	0:08	Interception
17	CHI	CIN 9	4	5	1:26	Turnover on downs
18	CIN	CIN 25	8	75	2:01	Touchdown
19	CHI	CHI 20	4	3	0:56	Interception
20	CIN	CHI 7	2	7	0:04	Touchdown
21	CHI	CHI 25	9	21	3:39	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 75 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	19/30	207	2	3	5	-9.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Joe Mixon	20	69	3.5	0	-3.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Boyd	7	9	73	0	31%	-7.0
Tee Higgins	6	10	60	1	34%	-8.5
Ja'Marr Chase	2	4	54	1	14%	7.3
Chris Evans	1	1	14	0	3%	0.3
C.J. Uzomah	2	2	4	0	7%	-0.9
Joe Mixon	1	2	2	0	7%	-1.6
Samaje Perine	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Logan Wilson	2	7	0.0	1	1
Sam Hubbard	5	2	0.5	0	0
Vonn Bell	5	1	0.0	0	1
Jessie Bates	4	1	0.0	0	0
Larry Ogunjobi	1	3	0.0	0	0
Eli Apple	2	1	0.0	0	1
D.J. Reader	1	2	1.0	0	0
Trey Hendrickson	1	2	1.5	0	0
B.J. Hill	2	1	0.0	0	0
Tee Higgins	2	0	0.0	0	0

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Fields	6/13	60	0	1	2	-9.7
Andy Dalton	9/11	56	1	0	1	2.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
David Montgomery	20	61	3.0	-6.7
Justin Fields	10	31	3.1	-2.3
Andy Dalton	2	25	12.5	1.3
Damien Williams	2	6	3.0	1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Darnell Mooney	6	8	66	0	35%	2.2
Allen Robinson	2	4	24	1	17%	3.7
David Montgomery	3	4	18	0	17%	1.3
Marquise Goodwin	1	3	10	0	13%	-5.3
Cole Kmet	1	1	0	0	4%	-0.4
Damien Williams	2	3	-2	0	13%	-3.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Roquan Smith	5	4	1.0	1	1
Duke Shelley	5	1	0.0	0	0
Eddie Jackson	3	1	0.0	0	0
Bilal Nichols	3	1	1.0	0	0
Robert Quinn	4	0	2.0	0	0
Akiem Hicks	3	1	0.0	0	0
DeAndre Houston-Carson	2	1	0.0	0	0
Angelo Blackson	2	1	0.0	1	1
Kindle Vildor	2	1	0.0	0	1
Tashaun Gipson	2	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CHI -2
Closing total: 44.5
CIN moneyline: +114
CHI moneyline: -126

Bears closed -2 and covered, winning by 3.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 37 — under by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Soldier Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 80°F, wind 0 mph
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: CIN 7 days · CHI 7 days
Coaches: Zac Taylor vs Matt Nagy