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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:57 AM ET · 16 to play
Chicago Bears 20, Bengals 17 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 11:07, 3rd and 3, on Roquan Smith — 14.7 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 11:07 · 3rd and 3
Roquan Smith
Bears
(11:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 58-R.Smith at CHI 47. 58-R.Smith for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Bears closed -2 and covered, winning by 3.
Chicago Bears 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 11:07, Bears +14.7% win probability on one snap.
14.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Tee HigginsBearsQ3 5:01(5:01) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 85-T.Higgins to CIN 49 for 14 yards (4-E.Jackson) [90-A.Blackson]. FUMBLES (4-E.Jackson), RECOVERED by CHI-38-Ta.Gipson at CHI 48. 38-Ta.Gipson to CIN 39 for 13 yards (85-T.Higgins).
14.7pts
Justin FieldsBearsQ4 2:55(2:55) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields scrambles left end to CHI 36 for 10 yards (96-C.Sample).
14.3pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Bears won this one — 1 giveaway, against Bengals at 4 giveaways.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bears won this one — -0.14 expected points per dropback, against Bengals at -0.43 expected points per dropback.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — -0.19 expected points per carry, against Bears at -0.37 expected points per carry.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Bears won this one — 5 chunk plays, against Bengals at 3 chunk plays.
(11:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 58-R.Smith at CHI 47. 58-R.Smith for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +14.7 for BearsExpected points +8.81 for BearsModel and market agree here.play 117
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 11:07CIN +15% win prob(11:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 58-R.Smith at CHI 47. 58-R.Smith for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 5:01CIN +15% win prob(5:01) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 85-T.Higgins to CIN 49 for 14 yards (4-E.Jackson) [90-A.Blackson]. FUMBLES (4-E.Jackson), RECOVERED by CHI-38-Ta.Gipson at CHI 48. 38-Ta.Gipson to CIN 39 for 13 yards (85-T.Higgins).
4th · 2:55CHI +14% win prob(2:55) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields scrambles left end to CHI 36 for 10 yards (96-C.Sample).
4th · 3:50CIN +13% win prob(3:50) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short middle intended for 84-M.Goodwin INTERCEPTED by 55-L.Wilson [30-J.Bates] at CHI 25. 55-L.Wilson to CHI 7 for 18 yards (8-D.Williams; 84-M.Goodwin).
1st · 11:30CHI +12% win prob(11:30) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete deep left to 84-M.Goodwin. PENALTY on CIN-20-E.Apple, Defensive Pass Interference, 32 yards, enforced at CIN 48 - No Play.
2nd · 12:31CIN +9% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Allen Robinson's 11-yard touchdown catch with 10:01 left in the 1st put Chicago Bears ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:01Allen Robinson·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Andy Daltonfrom Andy DaltonLead never changed again+70–7
3rd8:28Evan McPherson·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+33–7
4th14:55Cairo Santos·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+33–10
4th6:43Cairo Santos·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+33–20
4th4:47Ja'Marr Chase·42-yd TD catch42-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+710–20
4th3:43Tee Higgins·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+717–20
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bengalscategory by categoryBears
Bengals4–3Bears
248Total yards210
4.5Yards per play3.6
42%Success rate36%
46%Third-down rate43%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
3Explosive plays5
13First downs13
5Sacks taken3
4Turnovers1
The read
Bengals ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bears, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.34Bengals: −0.34 expected points added per play
−0.24Bears: −0.24 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.43Bengals: −0.43 expected points added per play
−0.14Bears: −0.14 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.19Bengals: −0.19 expected points added per play
−0.37Bears: −0.37 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 55 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Bears’s 58 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 2, Bears 3.
NoteBengals outgained Bears 248-210 but lost the turnover battle 4-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · +1.3 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (+0.27× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Bears28.6%
leaned — got home · +13.0 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+1.32× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCHI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 28.6%, 13.0 points above their season mean of 15.6% and 1.3 times their own 9.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 4 never used
66Trey HopkinsC · Every snap100%55 snaps
71Riley ReiffT · Every snap100%55 snaps
—Jonah WilliamsT · Every snap100%55 snaps
67Quinton SpainG · Every snap100%55 snaps
72Xavier Su'a-FiloG · Every snap100%55 snaps
9Joe BurrowQB · Every snap100%55 snaps
1Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Full-time93%51 snaps
85Tee HigginsWR · Full-time91%50 snaps
83Tyler BoydWR · Full-time87%48 snaps
28Joe MixonRB · Full-time84%46 snaps
87C.J. UzomahTE · Heavy rotation73%40 snaps
89Drew SampleTE · Rotational38%21 snaps
80Mike ThomasWR · Situational15%8 snaps
19Auden TateWR · Situational9%5 snaps
34Samaje PerineRB · Situational5%3 snaps
25Chris EvansRB · Situational4%2 snaps
84Mitchell WilcoxTE · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Nick McCloudCBTrae WaynesCBD'Ante SmithGTyler ShelvinNTFred JohnsonTTrenton IrwinWR
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Burrow pass−14% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(11:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 58-R.Smith at CHI 47. 58-R.Smith for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 11:07 · Bengals · 3rd & 3 at CHI 48 · gained nothing · -8.81 EP · −14.0% win probability
147 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 158 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 158 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 75 yards from the CHI 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
158 of 158 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
158
EPA per play
-0.23
Success rate
35%
Yards
454
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.3567%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.1649%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.4025%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.2025%
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Bengals0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR3——
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Bengals0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
158 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
158 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Bengals0Bears6
Bengals0Bears7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bengals 11
Punt14 plays, from the Bengals 9 to the Bears 35
The period ended11 plays, from the Bears 7 to the Bears 37
2nd quarter38 plays
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Bears 48 to the Bengals 32
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Bengals 32 to the Bears 43
Punt1 play
Punt8 plays, from the Bengals 7 to the Bengals 27
Punt8 plays, from the Bears 34 to the Bengals 48
The period ended4 plays, from the Bengals 8 to the Bengals 17
3rd quarter32 plays
Bengals3Bears7
Field goal13 plays, from the Bengals 22 to the Bears 35
Punt9 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 49
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Fumble lost1 play
The period ended9 plays, from the Bengals 39 to the Bengals 5
4th quarter50 plays
Bengals3Bears10
Field goal2 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Bengals3Bears16
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bengals 17 to the Bears 48
Bengals3Bears17
Intercepted3 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 29
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 36 to the Bengals 35
Intercepted1 play
Bengals3Bears20
Field goal4 plays, from the Bengals 9 to the Bengals 4
Bengals9Bears20
Bengals10Bears20
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bears 42
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Bears 24
Bengals16Bears20
Bengals17Bears20
Touchdown2 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
The period ended12 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 46
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bears -2
Closing total
44.5
Bengals moneyline
+114
Bears moneyline
-126
Bears closed -2 and covered, winning by 3.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 37 — under by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Soldier Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 79°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the east; clear.
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
Bengals 7 days · Bears 7 days
Coaches
Zac Taylor vs Matt Nagy
(12:31) (No Huddle) 1-J.Fields left guard to CIN 32 for no gain (93-W.Ray). Official measurement
3rd · 3:03CHI +8% win prob(3:03) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left to 12-A.Robinson ran ob at CIN 29 for 13 yards (30-J.Bates).
3rd · 5:53CIN +7% win prob(5:53) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields sacked at CHI 38 for -11 yards (91-T.Hendrickson). FUMBLES (91-T.Hendrickson) [91-T.Hendrickson], and recovers at CHI 33.
