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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:19 AM ET · 16 to play
Dallas Cowboys 20 at Los Angeles Chargers 17. Final.
Chargers -3 upsetU 55 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 2
Dallas Cowboys 20, Chargers 17 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:04, 3rd and 3, on Greg Zuerlein — 26.9 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:04 · 3rd and 3
Greg Zuerlein
Cowboys
(:04) 2-G.Zuerlein 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Dome
Chargers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Dallas Cowboys 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:04, Cowboys +26.9% win probability on one snap.
26.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Keenan AllenChargersQ3 12:32(12:32) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 13-K.Allen ran ob at DAL 26 for 42 yards.
17.1pts
Damontae KazeeCowboysQ3 0:10(:10) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 18-D.Kazee [97-O.Odighizuwa] at DAL -2. Touchback.
16.8pts
What separated them
Red zone
Cowboys won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Chargers at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Cowboys won this one — 6 of 10 on third down, against Chargers at 5 of 12 on third down.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Cowboys won this one — 58% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chargers at 49% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Cowboys won this one — 1 giveaway, against Chargers at 2 giveaways.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Cowboys159 of 170 plays carry both curves
(:04) 2-G.Zuerlein 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Swing −26.9 for ChargersExpected points −1.14 for ChargersThe model had Chargers 5 points higher than the market did.play 169
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:04LAC +27% win prob(:04) 2-G.Zuerlein 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.
3rd · 12:32LAC +17% win prob(12:32) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 13-K.Allen ran ob at DAL 26 for 42 yards.
3rd · 0:10DAL +17% win prob(:10) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 18-D.Kazee [97-O.Odighizuwa] at DAL -2. Touchback.
4th · 6:17LAC +16% win prob(6:17) 79-T.Pipkins reported in as eligible. 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 13-K.Allen pushed ob at DAL 2 for 30 yards (7-T.Diggs).
1st · 6:09DAL +15% win prob(6:09) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right intended for 88-C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by 26-A.Samuel at LAC 29. 26-A.Samuel ran ob at DAL 45 for 26 yards (4-D.Prescott).
4th · 5:35DAL +15% win prob(5:35) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at DAL 25 for -18 yards (11-M.Parsons).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Greg Zuerlein's 56-yard field goal with 0:04 left in the 4th put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
3rd9:27Tristan Vizcaino·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder T.Long · snap M.Overton+314–14
4th10:30Greg Zuerlein·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap J.McQuaide+317–14
4th3:58Tristan Vizcaino·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder T.Long · snap M.Overton+317–17
4th0:04Greg Zuerlein·56-yd field goal56-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap J.McQuaideLead never changed again+320–17
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cowboyscategory by categoryChargers
Cowboys8–0Chargers
419Total yards410
7.0Yards per play6.5
58%Success rate49%
60%Third-down rate42%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
8Explosive plays7
24First downs21
2Sacks taken2
1Turnovers2
The read
Cowboys ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.10Cowboys: +0.10 expected points added per play
+0.09Chargers: +0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.06Cowboys: −0.06 expected points added per play
+0.08Chargers: +0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.25Cowboys: +0.25 expected points added per play
+0.13Chargers: +0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 60 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Chargers’s 63 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 3, Chargers 4.
NoteCowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs 0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DAL's pass rate over expected turned over: +21.2 pts in week 1 against −13.2 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 4.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
60 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.1 points.
DAL's early-down pass rate turned over: 80.0% in week 1 against 44.9% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.7 points.
DAL's sack or hit rate turned over: 4.0% in week 1 against 20.0% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.7 points.
LAC's sack or hit rate turned over: 26.9% in week 1 against 10.3% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.8 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+0.66× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Chargers10.3%
inside their normal wobble · −3.6 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.55× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDAL's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -13.2 pts, 14.1 points below their season mean of 0.9 pts and 1.7 times their own 8.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Greg Zuerlein+31% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:04) 2-G.Zuerlein 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Q4 0:04 · Cowboys · 3rd & 3 at LAC 38 · gained nothing · +1.14 EP · +31.4% win probability
157 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 82 yards from the LAC 9 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
46%
Yards
829
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.1376%
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.1153%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.0336%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.0257%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.0960%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Cowboys0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Chargers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Cowboys6Chargers0
Cowboys7Chargers0
Touchdown18 plays, from the Cowboys 22 to the Chargers 4
Intercepted4 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Cowboys 33
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Cowboys 45
Cowboys7Chargers3
Field goal5 plays, from the Cowboys 45 to the Cowboys 27
Cowboys13Chargers3
Cowboys14Chargers3
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Chargers 5
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter47 plays
Cowboys14Chargers9
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chargers 41 to the Cowboys 12
Cowboys14Chargers11
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Cowboys 23 to the Chargers 41
No good17 plays, from the Chargers 41 to the Cowboys 21
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.0 seconds
Cowboys14Chargers14
Field goal16 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Cowboys 13
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSix
Punt10 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Chargers 28
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted13 plays, from the Chargers 9 to the Cowboys 9
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter39 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Cowboys17Chargers14
Field goal9 plays, from the Cowboys 48 to the Chargers 10
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.6 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFour
Cowboys17Chargers17
Field goal14 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Cowboys 2
Cowboys20Chargers17
Field goal15 plays, from the Cowboys 13 to the Chargers 38
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chargers -3
Closing total
55
Cowboys moneyline
+135
Chargers moneyline
-150
Chargers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 55; the game landed 37 — under by 18.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Tony Corrente
Rest
Cowboys 10 days · Chargers 7 days
Coaches
Mike McCarthy vs Brandon Staley
2nd · 2:00
LAC +15% win prob
(2:00) 1-T.Long punts 44 yards to DAL 10, Center-54-M.Overton, fair catch by 88-C.Lamb. PENALTY on DAL-54-A.Kamara, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 46 - No Play.
2nd · 0:07DAL +12% win prob(:07) 16-T.Vizcaino 44 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long. PENALTY on LAC-79-T.Pipkins, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at DAL 34.
