2021 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 19, 2021 · SoFi Stadium

Dallas CowboysWinner

Los Angeles Chargers

LAC -3 upsetU 55 ✓DomeChargers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Dallas Cowboys 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:04, LAC +27% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:04DAL — LAC DAL ball · 3rd & 3DAL 73%

(:04) 2-G.Zuerlein 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:04LAC +27% win prob(:04) 2-G.Zuerlein 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Q3 · 12:32LAC +17% win prob(12:32) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 13-K.Allen ran ob at DAL 26 for 42 yards.
Q3 · 0:10DAL +17% win prob(:10) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 18-D.Kazee [97-O.Odighizuwa] at DAL -2. Touchback.
Q4 · 6:17LAC +16% win prob(6:17) 79-T.Pipkins reported in as eligible. 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 13-K.Allen pushed ob at DAL 2 for 30 yards (7-T.Diggs).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cowboys	Chargers
Offensive plays	60	63
Total yards	419 (edge)	410
Yards per play	7.0 (edge)	6.5
Expected points added / play	0.10 (edge)	0.09
Success rate	58% (edge)	49%
Dropback rate	48%	71%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.06	0.08 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.25 (edge)	0.13
Third downs	6/10 (edge)	5/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	7
First downs gained on snaps	24 (edge)	21
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Cowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs 0.09.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

31/41, 338 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

3.6 expected points added · +7.4% completion over expected

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

23/27, 237 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-1.7 expected points added · +13.0% completion over expected

Rushing · DAL

Tony PollardRB

13 att, 109 yds, 1 TD

6.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DAL

Ezekiel ElliottRB

16 att, 71 yds, 1 TD

0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Keenan AllenWR

4/8 for 108 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · -2.4 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

Mike WilliamsWR

7/10 for 91 yds, 1 TD

25% of team targets · 7.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DAL	DAL 22	17	74	6:51	Touchdown
2	LAC	LAC 25	4	42	1:09	Interception
3	DAL	DAL 20	3	25	1:04	Interception
4	LAC	DAL 45	5	17	2:24	Turnover on downs
5	DAL	DAL 25	9	75	3:15	Touchdown
6	LAC	LAC 25	12	99	5:28	Touchdown
7	DAL	DAL 23	9	51	4:56	Turnover on downs
8	LAC	LAC 41	12	43	4:50	Turnover on downs
9	DAL	DAL 49	1	48	0:03	End of half
10	LAC	LAC 25	14	66	5:38	Turnover on downs
11	DAL	DAL 25	9	33	4:20	Punt
12	LAC	LAC 9	11	74	4:57	Interception
13	DAL	DAL 20	10	64	4:40	Turnover on downs
14	LAC	LAC 25	13	69	6:31	Turnover on downs
15	DAL	DAL 13	12	49	3:54	Turnover on downs

0 of 15 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 99 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Dak Prescott	23/27	237	0	1	2	-1.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Tony Pollard	13	109	8.4	1	6.3
Ezekiel Elliott	16	71	4.4	1	0.7
CeeDee Lamb	1	13	13.0	0	0.9
Cedrick Wilson	1	5	5.0	0	-0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
CeeDee Lamb	8	9	81	33%	-4.7
Blake Jarwin	3	4	37	15%	1.6
Tony Pollard	3	3	31	11%	2.2
Ezekiel Elliott	2	2	26	7%	1.0
Amari Cooper	3	5	24	19%	-0.7
Cedrick Wilson	2	2	20	7%	1.3
Dalton Schultz	2	2	18	7%	2.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jaylon Smith	5	3	0.0	0	0
Leighton Vander Esch	4	3	1.0	0	0
Trevon Diggs	6	0	0.0	1	1
Jayron Kearse	4	1	0.0	0	1
Anthony Brown	5	0	0.0	0	1
Carlos Watkins	2	1	0.0	0	0
Malik Hooker	3	0	0.0	0	0
Tarell Basham	1	2	0.0	0	0
Keanu Neal	3	0	0.0	0	0
Jourdan Lewis	2	0	0.0	0	0

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Herbert	31/41	338	1	2	2	3.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Austin Ekeler	9	54	6.0	-0.4
Justin Jackson	4	21	5.3	0.9
Justin Herbert	4	12	3.0	1.6
Jalen Guyton	1	9	9.0	0.9
Larry Rountree	1	-1	-1.0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Keenan Allen	4	8	108	0	20%	-2.4
Mike Williams	7	10	91	1	25%	7.9
Austin Ekeler	9	9	61	0	23%	0.1
Jared Cook	3	5	28	0	13%	1.3
Josh Palmer	2	2	21	0	5%	1.9
Jalen Guyton	2	2	13	0	5%	-0.2
Stephen Anderson	2	2	9	0	5%	0.0
Justin Jackson	1	1	8	0	3%	0.5
Larry Rountree	1	1	-1	0	3%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Nasir Adderley	8	1	0.0	0	1
Jerry Tillery	4	3	0.5	0	0
Kenneth Murray	4	3	0.0	0	0
Derwin James	4	2	0.5	0	0
Michael Davis	3	3	0.0	0	0
Alohi Gilman	2	3	0.0	0	0
Asante Samuel	3	1	0.0	1	3
Kyzir White	2	1	0.0	0	0
Drue Tranquill	3	0	0.0	0	0
Linval Joseph	2	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LAC -3
Closing total: 55
DAL moneyline: +135
LAC moneyline: -150

Chargers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 55; the game landed 37 — under by 18.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Tony Corrente
Rest: DAL 10 days · LAC 7 days
Coaches: Mike McCarthy vs Brandon Staley