2021 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 19, 2021 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Denver BroncosWinner

Jacksonville Jaguars

DEN -6 ✓U 45 ✓Broncos closed -6 and covered, winning by 10.

Denver Broncos 23–13. Biggest swing: Q1 9:27, JAX +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 9:27DEN — JAX JAX ball · 3rd & 13DEN 68%

(9:27) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 11-M.Jones for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 9:27JAX +10% win prob(9:27) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 11-M.Jones for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 4:26JAX +9% win prob(4:26) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short middle to 14-C.Sutton to DEN 40 for 16 yards (42-A.Wingard).
Q2 · 10:15JAX +8% win prob(10:15) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Chark. PENALTY on DEN-2-P.Surtain, Defensive Pass Interference, 36 yards, enforced at JAX 36 - No Play.
Q1 · 2:47DEN +7% win prob(2:47) 5-T.Bridgewater sacked at JAX 26 for -16 yards (41-J.Allen).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Broncos	Jaguars
Offensive plays	65	51
Total yards	400 (edge)	189
Yards per play	6.2 (edge)	3.7
Expected points added / play	0.14 (edge)	-0.25
Success rate	48% (edge)	35%
Dropback rate	58%	73%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.24 (edge)	-0.28
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.01 (edge)	-0.18
Third downs	2/11	4/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	5
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	10
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.25.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Teddy BridgewaterQB

26/34, 328 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

9.0 expected points added · +14.7% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

14/33, 118 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-14.2 expected points added · -18.2% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Javonte WilliamsRB

13 att, 64 yds, 0 TD

2.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

James RobinsonRB

11 att, 47 yds, 0 TD

-1.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Courtland SuttonWR

9/12 for 159 yds, 0 TD

35% of team targets · 8.5 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Marvin JonesWR

6/11 for 55 yds, 1 TD

33% of team targets · 3.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	JAX	JAX 17	13	83	5:39	Touchdown
2	DEN	DEN 25	14	56	8:55	Turnover on downs
3	JAX	JAX 25	3	0	0:43	Punt
4	JAX	DEN 33	8	16	3:08	Punt
5	JAX	JAX 28	6	2	3:01	Turnover on downs
6	DEN	DEN 42	4	1	1:09	Punt
7	JAX	JAX 14	4	7	1:29	Punt
8	DEN	DEN 20	9	80	4:02	Touchdown
9	JAX	JAX 25	13	40	1:35	Turnover on downs
10	DEN	DEN 38	4	39	0:19	End of half
11	DEN	DEN 25	6	75	2:25	Touchdown
12	JAX	JAX 25	5	0	2:05	Punt
13	DEN	DEN 19	6	21	3:46	Punt
14	JAX	JAX 17	4	18	2:21	Interception
15	DEN	DEN 49	7	24	3:19	Turnover on downs
16	JAX	JAX 25	5	6	1:03	Punt
17	DEN	DEN 35	4	9	1:34	Punt
18	JAX	JAX 10	7	35	2:56	Interception
19	DEN	DEN 6	9	42	4:49	Turnover on downs
20	JAX	—	2	0	0:16	Defensive touchdown
21	DEN	JAX 39	10	35	5:26	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 83 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Teddy Bridgewater	26/34	328	2	0	3	9.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Javonte Williams	13	64	4.9	2.7
Melvin Gordon	13	31	2.4	-3.8
Teddy Bridgewater	4	1	0.3	-4.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Courtland Sutton	9	12	159	0	35%	8.5
Melvin Gordon	2	2	38	0	6%	0.4
Tim Patrick	3	4	37	1	12%	2.7
Noah Fant	4	6	33	1	18%	1.5
Albert Okwuegbunam	4	4	24	0	12%	0.0
Kendall Hinton	1	1	15	0	3%	1.6
Javonte Williams	1	1	10	0	3%	0.5
Eric Saubert	1	1	7	0	3%	0.4
K.J. Hamler	1	3	5	0	9%	-2.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Justin Strnad	4	3	0.0	0	0
Kareem Jackson	4	2	0.0	1	1
Alexander Johnson	1	4	0.0	0	0
Josey Jewell	3	1	0.0	0	0
Patrick Surtain	2	2	0.0	1	1
Bryce Callahan	2	1	0.0	0	2
Mike Purcell	1	2	0.0	0	0
Kyle Fuller	1	1	0.0	0	0
Von Miller	1	0	1.0	0	0
Bradley Chubb	1	0	0.0	0	0

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trevor Lawrence	14/33	118	1	2	1	-14.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
James Robinson	11	47	4.3	-1.3
Trevor Lawrence	2	21	10.5	3.8
Carlos Hyde	2	7	3.5	-0.5
Laviska Shenault Jr.	1	0	0.0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marvin Jones	6	11	55	1	33%	3.6
James O'Shaughnessy	1	1	24	0	3%	2.2
D.J. Chark	1	4	19	0	12%	-2.4
James Robinson	3	3	17	0	9%	-0.2
Luke Farrell	1	2	6	0	6%	-4.3
Carlos Hyde	0	2	0	0	6%	-0.7
Laquon Treadwell	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.7
Tyron Johnson	0	1	0	0	3%	-2.2
Chris Manhertz	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.4
Laviska Shenault Jr.	2	7	-3	0	21%	-6.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Andrew Wingard	5	3	1.0	0
Myles Jack	3	3	0.0	0
Rayshawn Jenkins	6	0	0.0	1
Damien Wilson	3	3	0.0	0
Shaquill Griffin	3	2	0.0	1
Davon Hamilton	3	2	0.0	0
Shaquille Quarterman	2	2	0.0	0
Chris Claybrooks	2	2	0.0	0
Rudy Ford	3	0	0.0	0
Josh Hines-Allen	1	2	1.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DEN -6
Closing total: 45
DEN moneyline: -241
JAX moneyline: +211

Broncos closed -6 and covered, winning by 10.

Total closed 45; the game landed 36 — under by 9.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 80°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: DEN 7 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches: Vic Fangio vs Urban Meyer