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Denver Broncos 23 at Jacksonville Jaguars 13. Final.
Broncos -6 ✓U 45 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 2
Denver Broncos 23, Jaguars 13 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 9:27, 3rd and 13, on Marvin Jones — 9.6 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 9:27 · 3rd and 13
Marvin Jones
Jaguars
(9:27) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 11-M.Jones for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Broncos closed -6 and covered, winning by 10.
Denver Broncos 23–13. Biggest swing: Q1 9:27, Jaguars +9.6% win probability on one snap.
9.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Trevor LawrenceJaguarsQ2 10:15(10:15) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Chark. PENALTY on DEN-2-P.Surtain, Defensive Pass Interference, 36 yards, enforced at JAX 36 - No Play.
7.5pts
Courtland SuttonBroncosQ2 4:26(4:26) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short middle to 14-C.Sutton to DEN 40 for 16 yards (42-A.Wingard).
9.3pts
What separated them
Every snap
Broncos won this one — +0.14 expected points per snap, against Jaguars at -0.25 expected points per snap.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Broncos won this one — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Jaguars at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Broncos won this one — no giveaways, against Jaguars at 2 giveaways.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Broncos won this one — +0.24 expected points per dropback, against Jaguars at -0.28 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 15.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Broncos161 of 172 plays carry both curves
(9:27) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 11-M.Jones for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +9.6 for JaguarsExpected points +4.09 for JaguarsThe model had Jaguars 28 points higher than the market did.play 15
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 9:27JAX +10% win prob(9:27) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 11-M.Jones for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 4:26JAX +9% win prob(4:26) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short middle to 14-C.Sutton to DEN 40 for 16 yards (42-A.Wingard).
2nd · 10:15JAX +8% win prob(10:15) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Chark. PENALTY on DEN-2-P.Surtain, Defensive Pass Interference, 36 yards, enforced at JAX 36 - No Play.
1st · 2:47DEN +7% win prob(2:47) 5-T.Bridgewater sacked at JAX 26 for -16 yards (41-J.Allen).
2nd · 2:00JAX +7% win prob(2:00) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 81-T.Patrick for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-M.Brown].
2nd · 3:03JAX +7% win prob(3:03) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep right to 14-C.Sutton to JAX 27 for 33 yards (2-R.Jenkins).
1st · 11:46
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tim Patrick's 12-yard touchdown catch with 2:00 left in the 2nd put Denver Broncos ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
3rd1:08Brandon McManus·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap J.Bobenmoyer+320–7
4th5:45Brandon McManus·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap J.Bobenmoyer+323–7
4th5:42Jamal Agnew·102-yd return TD102-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick · two-point no good+623–13
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Broncoscategory by categoryJaguars
Broncos6–2Jaguars
400Total yards189
6.2Yards per play3.7
48%Success rate35%
18%Third-down rate36%
2Red-zone touchdowns0
5Explosive plays5
20First downs10
3Sacks taken1
0Turnovers2
The read
Broncos ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.14Broncos: +0.14 expected points added per play
−0.25Jaguars: −0.25 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.24Broncos: +0.24 expected points added per play
−0.28Jaguars: −0.28 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.01Broncos: +0.01 expected points added per play
−0.18Jaguars: −0.18 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 65 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 51 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 4, Jaguars 2.
NoteBroncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.25.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 14 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −4.8 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (−1.04× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Jaguars21.1%
inside their normal wobble · +7.5 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.87× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDEN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 4.8 pts, 9.4 points above their season mean of -4.6 pts and 1.6 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
72Garett BollesT · Every snap100%69 snaps
66Dalton RisnerG · Every snap100%69 snaps
52Netane MutiG · Every snap100%69 snaps
5Teddy BridgewaterQB · Every snap100%69 snaps
79Lloyd CushenberryC · Every snap100%69 snaps
70Bobby MassieT · Every snap100%69 snaps
14Courtland SuttonWR · Heavy rotation77%53 snaps
87Noah FantTE · Heavy rotation77%53 snaps
81Tim PatrickWR · Heavy rotation74%51 snaps
1K.J. HamlerWR · Heavy rotation71%49 snaps
25Melvin GordonRB · Heavy rotation59%41 snaps
85Albert OkwuegbunamTE · Heavy rotation54%37 snaps
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Bridgewater pass+13% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(14:17) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep middle to 14-C.Sutton to JAX 17 for 55 yards (27-C.Claybrooks).
Q3 14:17 · Broncos · 2nd & 7 at DEN 28 · gained 55 · +4.42 EP · +13.0% win probability
159 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 83 yards from the JAX 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
42%
Yards
587
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.1375%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.0763%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.0453%
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR12+0.5942%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.6340%
Jaguars0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Broncos0Jaguars6
Broncos0Jaguars7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Jaguars 17 to the Broncos 20
Broncos3Jaguars7
Field goal15 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Jaguars 10
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter57 plays
Punt3 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 33 to the Jaguars 49
No good7 plays, from the Jaguars 28 to the Broncos 28
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 42 to the Broncos 43
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 14 to the Jaguars 21
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.8 seconds
Broncos9Jaguars7
Broncos10Jaguars7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Jaguars 12
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
No good17 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Broncos 30
The period ended6 plays, from the Broncos 38 to the Broncos 47
3rd quarter40 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Broncos16Jaguars7
Broncos17Jaguars7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Jaguars 14
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 29
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 19 to the Broncos 40
Intercepted5 plays, from the Jaguars 17 to the Jaguars 40
Broncos20Jaguars7
Field goal8 plays, from the Broncos 49 to the Jaguars 27
Punt7 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 26
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter41 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Broncos 39 to the Broncos 44
Intercepted10 plays, from the Jaguars 10 to the Broncos 45
Broncos23Jaguars7
Field goal12 plays, from the Broncos 6 to the Jaguars 22
Broncos23Jaguars13
Touchdown2 plays
The period ended14 plays, from the Jaguars 39 to the Jaguars 4
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
