2021 Week 2 · Mon, Sep 20, 2021 · Lambeau Field

Detroit Lions

Green Bay PackersWinner

GB -11.5 ✓O 49.5 ✓Packers closed -11.5 and covered, winning by 18.

Green Bay Packers 35–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 12:20, GB +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 12:20DET — GB GB ball · 3rd & 12GB 61%

(12:20) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass deep right to 17-D.Adams ran ob at DET 26 for 50 yards (26-I.Melifonwu). DET-26-I.Melifonwu was injured during the play.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 12:20GB +14% win prob(12:20) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass deep right to 17-D.Adams ran ob at DET 26 for 50 yards (26-I.Melifonwu). DET-26-I.Melifonwu was injured during the play.
Q3 · 13:05DET +9% win prob(13:05) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers sacked at GB 24 for -10 yards (91-M.Brockers).
Q1 · 13:43GB +7% win prob(13:43) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 87-Q.Cephus to GB 20 for 46 yards (20-K.King).
Q3 · 5:57DET +7% win prob(5:57) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 87-Q.Cephus.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Lions	Packers
Offensive plays	56	57
Total yards	344 (edge)	327
Yards per play	6.1 (edge)	5.7
Expected points added / play	-0.01	0.30 (edge)
Success rate	55% (edge)	53%
Dropback rate	70%	58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.07	0.55 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.19	-0.06 (edge)
Third downs	4/9	5/8 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	18	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Lions outgained Packers 344–327 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

22/27, 255 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

17.6 expected points added · +15.8% completion over expected

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

26/36, 246 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-0.6 expected points added · +8.7% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

Aaron JonesRB

17 att, 67 yds, 1 TD

1.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DET

D'Andre SwiftRB

8 att, 37 yds, 0 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Davante AdamsWR

8/9 for 121 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 7.7 expected points added

Receiving · DET

T.J. HockensonTE

8/9 for 66 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · 5.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DET	DET 25	9	75	4:24	Touchdown
2	GB	GB 25	13	75	6:51	Touchdown
3	DET	DET 25	10	41	4:44	Punt
4	GB	GB 18	4	-3	1:40	Punt
5	DET	DET 39	10	46	4:59	Touchdown
6	GB	GB 44	12	56	5:30	Touchdown
7	DET	DET 41	8	35	1:49	Turnover on downs
8	GB	GB 25	2	0	0:03	End of half
9	GB	GB 13	10	87	4:34	Touchdown
10	DET	DET 25	9	50	4:33	Turnover on downs
11	GB	GB 25	12	65	5:46	Touchdown
12	DET	DET 25	2	0	0:04	Fumble
13	GB	DET 23	6	19	2:21	Touchdown
14	DET	DET 23	8	12	4:21	Punt
15	GB	GB 15	7	20	4:25	Punt
16	DET	DET 19	3	26	0:22	Interception
17	GB	GB 45	4	8	0:27	Punt
18	DET	DET 9	8	59	1:19	Turnover on downs
19	GB	GB 32	3	0	1:48	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 87 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jared Goff	26/36	246	2	1	1	-0.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jared Goff	4	46	11.5	-0.9
D'Andre Swift	8	37	4.6	0.5
Jamaal Williams	7	25	3.6	0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
T.J. Hockenson	8	9	66	1	26%	5.6
Quintez Cephus	4	7	63	1	20%	0.6
D'Andre Swift	4	5	41	0	14%	-0.0
Trinity Benson	1	3	24	0	9%	-4.0
Kalif Raymond	2	2	18	0	6%	1.4
Amon-Ra St. Brown	3	5	18	0	14%	-0.1
Jamaal Williams	3	3	12	0	9%	0.0
Jason Cabinda	1	1	4	0	3%	0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Alex Anzalone	7	2	0.0
Will Harris	5	1	0.0
Tracy Walker III	2	3	0.0
Jamie Collins	4	1	0.0
A.J. Parker	4	0	0.0
Michael Brockers	3	1	1.0
Trey Flowers	2	2	0.5
Bobby Price	3	0	0.0
Nicholas Williams	2	1	0.5
Charles Harris	1	2	1.0

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	22/27	255	4	0	3	17.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Aaron Jones	17	67	3.9	1	1.1
A.J. Dillon	5	18	3.6	0	-1.4
Kylin Hill	2	8	4.0	0	-1.1
Aaron Rodgers	4	6	1.5	0	0.7
Jordan Love	3	-3	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Davante Adams	8	9	121	0	33%	7.7
Robert Tonyan	3	3	52	1	11%	6.2
Aaron Jones	6	6	48	3	22%	8.5
Randall Cobb	3	3	26	0	11%	3.9
A.J. Dillon	1	1	8	0	4%	0.4
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	0	4	0	0	15%	-2.4
Equanimeous St. Brown	1	1	0	0	4%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
De'Vondre Campbell	8	3	1	1
Adrian Amos	9	1	0	0
Kenny Clark	1	3	0	0
Kevin King	2	2	0	1
Jaire Alexander	3	1	0	0
Krys Barnes	3	0	0	0
Oren Burks	1	1	0	0
Darnell Savage	2	0	0	0
Henry Black	1	0	0	0
Jonathan Garvin	1	0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: GB -11.5
Closing total: 49.5
DET moneyline: +400
GB moneyline: -494

Packers closed -11.5 and covered, winning by 18.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 52 — over by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lambeau Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 73°F, wind 12 mph
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: DET 8 days · GB 8 days
Coaches: Dan Campbell vs Matt LaFleur

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.