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connecting · reading the slate
Game Center
2021 Week 2 · Mon, Sep 20, 2021 · Lambeau Field
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 2
It turned at Q3 12:20, 3rd and 12, on Davante Adams — 14.4 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Green Bay Packers 35–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 12:20, Packers +14.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 12:20 · 3rd and 12
Davante Adams
Packers
(12:20) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass deep right to 17-D.Adams ran ob at DET 26 for 50 yards (26-I.Melifonwu). DET-26-I.Melifonwu was injured during the play.
14.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Packers won this one — no giveaways, against Lions at 2 giveaways.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Packers won this one — +0.55 expected points per dropback, against Lions at +0.07 expected points per dropback.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Packers won this one — +0.30 expected points per snap, against Lions at -0.01 expected points per snap.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Packers won this one — 5 of 8 on third down, against Lions at 4 of 9 on third down.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 16.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 38 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
(12:20) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass deep right to 17-D.Adams ran ob at DET 26 for 50 yards (26-I.Melifonwu). DET-26-I.Melifonwu was injured during the play.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Robert Tonyan's 22-yard touchdown catch with 10:30 left in the 3rd put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Robert Tonyan22-yd TD catch22-yard touchdown catchfrom Aaron RodgersLead never changed again+717–218 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Lionscategory by categoryPackers
Lions ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Packers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.55 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 56 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Packers’s 57 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Lions 2, Packers 5.
Lions outgained Packers 344-327 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
GB's early-down pass rate turned over: 66.7% in week 1 against 53.1% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points. · −0.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Lions5.4 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +11.0 vs their -5.5 pts, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+1.41× that swing) · 56 snaps
Packers7.4 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.7 vs their 3.7 pts, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (+0.75× that swing) · 57 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 31% to 83%
Tendencies room →Lions64.4%inside their normal wobble · +7.7 vs their 56.8%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (+0.76× that swing) · 45 early downs
Packers53.1%right on their number · −2.6 vs their 55.6%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 49 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22% to 133%
Fourth Down room →Lions—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 58.1%.
Packers—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 51.2%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 27%
Tendencies room →Lions18.2%leaned — got home · +7.6 vs their 10.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+1.18× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Packers17.9%leaned — got home · +4.7 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (+1.02× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
DET's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 5.4 pts, 11.0 points above their season mean of -5.5 pts and 1.4 times their own 7.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
Who moved the needle
Passing · GB
22/27, 255 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
17.6 expected points added · +15.8% completion over expected
Passing · DET
26/36, 246 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
-0.6 expected points added · +8.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Aaron Jones banked 11.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron JonesRB · Committee Back | 41.5 | +11.3 | 69% | 64% | 22% | 0% | 17 car, 67 yd, 1 TD · 6/6, 48 yd, 3 TD |
| Aaron RodgersQB · Starter QB | 26.8 | +6.1 | 95% | — | 0% | — | 22/27, 255 yd, 4 TD · 4 car, 6 yd |
| T.J. HockensonTE · Alpha Receiver | 20.6 | +4.2 | 93% | 95% | 26% | 31% | 8/9, 66 yd, 1 TD |
| Davante AdamsWR · Alpha Receiver | 20.1 | +3.5 | 88% | 88% | 33% | 40% | 8/9, 121 yd |
| Jared GoffQB · Starter QB | 18.4 | +1.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 26/36, 246 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 46 yd |
| Quintez CephusWR · Featured Receiver | 16.3 | +2.9 | 89% | 87% | 20% | 32% | 4/7, 63 yd, 1 TD |
| Robert TonyanTE · Rotational Receiver | 14.2 | +7.9 | 43% | 55% | 11% | 6% | 3/3, 52 yd, 1 TD |
| D'Andre SwiftRB · Committee Back | 11.8 | +0.6 | 63% | 64% | 14% | 0% | 8 car, 37 yd · 4/5, 41 yd |
| Jamaal WilliamsRB | 6.7 | −0.5 | 39% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 7 car, 25 yd · 3/3, 12 yd |
| Randall CobbWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.6 | +0.6 | 18% | 15% | 11% | 10% | 3/3, 26 yd |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.8 | −2.6 | 60% | 67% | 14% | 20% | 3/5, 18 yd |
| Kalif RaymondWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | +0.8 | 63% | 62% | 6% | 4% | 2/2, 18 yd |
| A.J. DillonRB | 3.6 | −0.6 | 29% | 33% | 4% | 3% | 5 car, 18 yd · 1/1, 8 yd |
| Trinity BensonWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | −1.1 | 42% | 38% | 9% | 20% | 1/3, 24 yd |
| Jason CabindaRB | 1.4 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Equanimeous St. BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.0 | −0.7 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kylin HillRB | 0.8 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Godwin IgwebuikeRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −10.4 | 66% | 67% | 15% | 43% | 0/4, 0 yd |
| Amari RodgersWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Jordan LoveQB | -0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(12:20) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass deep right to 17-D.Adams ran ob at DET 26 for 50 yards (26-I.Melifonwu). DET-26-I.Melifonwu was injured during the play.
Q3 12:20 · Packers · 3rd & 12 at GB 24 · gained 50 · +5.20 EP · +19.4% win probability
149 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 162 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 87 yards from the GB 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Lions6
Packers0Lions7Packers0Lions7Packers6Lions7Packers7Lions13Packers7Lions14Packers7Lions14Packers13Lions14Packers14Lions17Packers14Lions17Packers20Lions17Packers21Lions17Packers27Lions17Packers28Lions17Packers34Lions17Packers35Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Lions at Packers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 26/36 | 246 | 2 | 1 | 1 | −0.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 4 | 46 | 11.5 | 0 | −0.9 |
| D'Andre Swift | 8 | 37 | 4.6 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Jamaal Williams |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Hockenson | 8 | 9 | 66 | 1 | 26% | +5.6 |
| Quintez Cephus | 4 | 7 | 63 | 1 | 20% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Anzalone | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Harris | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tracy Walker III |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 22/27 | 255 | 4 | 0 | 3 | +17.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_02_DET_GB
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Packers closed -11.5 and covered, winning by 18.
Total closed 49.5; the game landed 52 — over by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 7 |
| 25 |
| 3.6 |
| 0 |
| +0.4 |
| +0.6 |
| D'Andre Swift | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 | 14% | −0.0 |
| Trinity Benson | 1 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 9% | −4.0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 6% | +1.4 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 14% | −0.1 |
| Jamaal Williams | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 9% | +0.0 |
| Jason Cabinda | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | +0.4 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jamie Collins | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Parker | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Brockers | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trey Flowers | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Price | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nicholas Williams | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Charles Harris | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 17 | 67 | 3.9 | 1 | +1.1 |
| A.J. Dillon | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Kylin Hill | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Jordan Love | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 8 | 9 | 121 | 0 | 33% | +7.7 |
| Robert Tonyan | 3 | 3 | 52 | 1 | 11% | +6.2 |
| Aaron Jones | 6 | 6 | 48 | 3 | 22% | +8.5 |
| Randall Cobb | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 11% | +3.9 |
| A.J. Dillon | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | +0.4 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15% | −2.4 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Vondre Campbell | 8 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Adrian Amos | 9 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Clark | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin King | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jaire Alexander | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Krys Barnes | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Oren Burks | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darnell Savage | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Henry Black | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Garvin | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
