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Green Bay Packers 35, Lions 17 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 12:20, 3rd and 12, on Davante Adams — 14.4 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 12:20 · 3rd and 12
Davante Adams
Packers
(12:20) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass deep right to 17-D.Adams ran ob at DET 26 for 50 yards (26-I.Melifonwu). DET-26-I.Melifonwu was injured during the play.
Packers closed -11.5 and covered, winning by 18.
Green Bay Packers 35–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 12:20, Packers +14.4% win probability on one snap.
14.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Quintez CephusLionsQ1 13:43(13:43) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 87-Q.Cephus to GB 20 for 46 yards (20-K.King).
7.3pts
Aaron RodgersLionsQ3 13:05(13:05) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers sacked at GB 24 for -10 yards (91-M.Brockers).
8.8pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Packers won this one — no giveaways, against Lions at 2 giveaways.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Packers won this one — +0.55 expected points per dropback, against Lions at +0.07 expected points per dropback.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Packers won this one — +0.30 expected points per snap, against Lions at -0.01 expected points per snap.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Packers won this one — 5 of 8 on third down, against Lions at 4 of 9 on third down.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 16.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 38 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Lions151 of 162 plays carry both curves
(12:20) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass deep right to 17-D.Adams ran ob at DET 26 for 50 yards (26-I.Melifonwu). DET-26-I.Melifonwu was injured during the play.
Swing +14.4 for PackersExpected points +5.20 for PackersThe model had Lions 24 points higher than the market did.play 84
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 12:20GB +14% win prob(12:20) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass deep right to 17-D.Adams ran ob at DET 26 for 50 yards (26-I.Melifonwu). DET-26-I.Melifonwu was injured during the play.
3rd · 13:05DET +9% win prob(13:05) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers sacked at GB 24 for -10 yards (91-M.Brockers).
1st · 13:43GB +7% win prob(13:43) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 87-Q.Cephus to GB 20 for 46 yards (20-K.King).
3rd · 5:57DET +7% win prob(5:57) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 87-Q.Cephus.
2nd · 7:27GB +6% win prob(7:27) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 88-T.Hockenson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 10:32GB +6% win prob(10:32) 16-J.Goff scrambles left end to GB 45 for 3 yards (59-D.Campbell). PENALTY on GB-59-D.Campbell, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at GB 45.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Robert Tonyan's 22-yard touchdown catch with 10:30 left in the 3rd put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:42Quintez Cephus·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+77–0
Lions ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Packers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.55 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.01Lions: −0.01 expected points added per play
+0.30Packers: +0.30 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.07Lions: +0.07 expected points added per play
+0.55Packers: +0.55 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.19Lions: −0.19 expected points added per play
−0.06Packers: −0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 56 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Packers’s 57 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Lions 2, Packers 5.
NoteLions outgained Packers 344-327 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
GB's early-down pass rate turned over: 66.7% in week 1 against 53.1% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 17 pts
leaned — got home · +7.6 vs their 10.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+1.18× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Packers17.9%
leaned — got home · +4.7 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (+1.02× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDET's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 5.4 pts, 11.0 points above their season mean of -5.5 pts and 1.4 times their own 7.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Aa.Rodgers pass+19% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(12:20) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass deep right to 17-D.Adams ran ob at DET 26 for 50 yards (26-I.Melifonwu). DET-26-I.Melifonwu was injured during the play.
Q3 12:20 · Packers · 3rd & 12 at GB 24 · gained 50 · +5.20 EP · +19.4% win probability
149 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 162 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 87 yards from the GB 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
162 of 162 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
162
EPA per play
+0.12
Success rate
49%
Yards
667
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.0284%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.3857%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23+0.1948%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.1631%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Lions2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Lions3 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.4 seconds
Lions6Packers0
Lions7Packers0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Packers 5
Lions7Packers6
Lions7Packers7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Lions 4
The period ended10 plays, from the Lions 25 to midfield
2nd quarter44 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 40 to the Packers 49
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 18 to the Packers 23
Lions13Packers7
Lions14Packers7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Lions 39 to the Packers 8
Lions14Packers13
Lions14Packers14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Packers 44 to the Lions 1
Lions17Packers14
Field goal11 plays, from the Lions 41 to the Packers 24
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Lions17Packers20
Lions17Packers21
Touchdown10 plays, from the Packers 13 to the Lions 22
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Packers 25
Lions17Packers27
Lions17Packers28
Touchdown15 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Lions 11
Fumble lost2 plays
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter45 plays
Lions17Packers34
Lions17Packers35
Touchdown6 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Lions 1
Punt9 plays, from the Lions 23 to the Lions 40
Punt8 plays, from the Packers 15 to the Packers 46
Intercepted3 plays, from the Lions 19 to the Lions 45
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 45 to the Lions 47
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Lions 9 to the Packers 32
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
