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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:48 AM ET · 16 to play
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 18.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 35 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Texans150 of 161 plays carry both curves
(12:06) 7-J.Gillan punts 37 yards to HOU 28, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-A.Roberts MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CLE-44-S.Takitaki at HOU 35.
Swing +16.1 for BrownsExpected points +4.61 for BrownsThe model had Texans 25 points higher than the market did.play 8
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 12:06CLE +16% win prob(12:06) 7-J.Gillan punts 37 yards to HOU 28, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-A.Roberts MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CLE-44-S.Takitaki at HOU 35.
2nd · 7:14CLE +13% win prob(7:14) (Shotgun) 5-Ty.Taylor scrambles right end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 7:59CLE +11% win prob(7:59) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 25-D.Felton for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 5:27CLE +8% win prob(5:27) 5-Ty.Taylor pass short right to 30-P.Lindsay for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 13:13HOU +7% win prob(13:13) 24-N.Chubb right tackle to CLE 45 for -4 yards (58-C.Kirksey).
1st · 10:00CLE +7% win prob(10:00) 31-A.Janovich up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 12:27HOU +7% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Demetric Felton's 33-yard touchdown catch with 7:59 left in the 3rd put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Browns ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Texans, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.10Texans: +0.10 expected points added per play
+0.15Browns: +0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.41Texans: +0.41 expected points added per play
+0.16Browns: +0.16 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.27Texans: −0.27 expected points added per play
+0.13Browns: +0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 58 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Browns’s 54 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Texans 3, Browns 5.
NoteBrowns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs 0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 12 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.7 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.81× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Browns9.7%
inside their normal wobble · −5.3 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.60× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteHOU's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -12.6 pts, 8.8 points below their season mean of -3.8 pts and 1.4 times their own 6.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 7 inactive
61Marcus CannonT · Every snap100%61 snaps
71Tytus HowardT · Every snap100%61 snaps
74Max ScharpingG · Every snap100%61 snaps
68Justin BrittC · Every snap100%61 snaps
78Laremy TunsilT · Full-time92%56 snaps
13Brandin CooksWR · Full-time92%56 snaps
18Chris ConleyWR · Full-time90%55 snaps
85Pharaoh BrownTE · Heavy rotation62%38 snaps
88Jordan AkinsTE · Heavy rotation62%38 snaps
10Davis MillsQB · Heavy rotation57%35 snaps
5Tyrod TaylorQB · Rotational43%26 snaps
31David JohnsonRB · Rotational43%26 snaps
19Andre RobertsWR · Rotational36%22 snaps
2Mark IngramRB · Rotational31%19 snaps
30Phillip LindsayRB · Situational23%14 snaps
89Danny AmendolaWR · Situational20%12 snaps
28Rex BurkheadRB · Situational18%11 snaps
83Antony AuclairTE · Situational16%10 snaps
72Geron ChristianT · Situational8%5 snaps
12Nico CollinsWR · Situational3%2 snaps
67Charlie HeckT · Situational2%1 snap
64Justin McCrayC · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Jimmy MorelandCBJonathan GreenardDEDeMarcus WalkerDEDeshaun WatsonQBScottie PhillipsRBBrevin JordanTEAnthony MillerWR
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
75Joel BitonioG · Every snap100%61 snaps
78Jack ConklinT · Every snap100%61 snaps
77Wyatt TellerG · Every snap100%61 snaps
6Baker MayfieldQB · Every snap100%61 snaps
64J.C. TretterC · Every snap100%61 snaps
11Donovan Peoples-JonesWR · Heavy rotation75%46 snaps
71Jedrick WillsT · Heavy rotation70%43 snaps
82Rashard HigginsWR · Heavy rotation70%43 snaps
81Austin HooperTE · Heavy rotation69%42 snaps
85David NjokuTE · Heavy rotation59%36 snaps
24Nick ChubbRB · Heavy rotation57%35 snaps
88Harrison BryantTE · Heavy rotation51%31 snaps
10Anthony SchwartzWR · Rotational49%30 snaps
27Kareem HuntRB · Rotational38%23 snaps
62Blake HanceG · Rotational30%18 snaps
31Andy JanovichFB · Situational18%11 snaps
25Demetric FeltonRB · Situational5%3 snaps
30D'Ernest JohnsonRB · Situational5%3 snaps
80Jarvis LandryWR · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 5
Tommy TogiaiDTRichard LeCounteFSTony FieldsOLBChristopher HubbardTOdell BeckhamWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Gillan punts+14% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(12:06) 7-J.Gillan punts 37 yards to HOU 28, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-A.Roberts MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CLE-44-S.Takitaki at HOU 35.
Q1 12:06 · Browns · 4th & 21 at CLE 35 · gained nothing · +4.61 EP · +14.4% win probability
148 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 161 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 84 yards from the HOU 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
161 of 161 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
161
EPA per play
+0.10
Success rate
44%
Yards
657
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR24+0.5571%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22-0.1432%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR19-0.2937%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.4431%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR9+0.3667%
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.2667%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.2540%
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Texans2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Browns2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Browns2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 32 to the Browns 49
Texans0Browns6
Texans0Browns7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Texans 35 to the Texans 1
Texans6Browns7
Texans7Browns7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Texans 16 to the Browns 22
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Texans 42
The period ended5 plays, from the Texans 27 to the Texans 43
2nd quarter44 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 46 to the Browns 49
Intercepted8 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Texans 42
Texans13Browns7
Texans14Browns7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Browns 47 to the Browns 15
Texans14Browns13
Texans14Browns14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Texans 5
Punt12 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 37
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 29
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.0 seconds
Texans14Browns20
Texans14Browns21
Touchdown11 plays, from the Browns 28 to the Texans 23
Intercepted4 plays, from the Texans 8 to the Texans 10
Texans14Browns24
Field goal4 plays, from the Texans 18 to the Texans 11
The period ended13 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Browns 43
4th quarter45 plays
Texans20Browns24
Texans21Browns24
Touchdown8 plays, from the Browns 42 to the Browns 1
Texans21Browns30
Texans21Browns31
Touchdown11 plays, from the Browns 18 to the Texans 26
Punt5 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 37 to the Browns 45
Drive ended9 plays, from the Texans 12 to the Browns 21
The period ended1 play
No good1 play
The period ended4 plays
The period ended1 play
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Browns -13.5
Closing total
48.5
Texans moneyline
+521
Browns moneyline
-675
Browns closed -13.5, won by 10 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 52 — over by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 76°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 9 mph out of the north-east; clear.
Referee
Brad Rogers
Rest
Texans 7 days · Browns 7 days
Coaches
David Culley vs Kevin Stefanski
(12:27) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at CLE 35 for -10 yards (54-J.Martin). Penalty on CLE-78-J.Conklin, Offensive Holding, declined.
2nd · 9:54HOU +7% win prob(9:54) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle intended for 10-A.Schwartz INTERCEPTED by 20-Ju.Reid at HOU 29. 20-Ju.Reid to CLE 47 for 24 yards (78-J.Conklin). CLE-6-B.Mayfield was injured during the play. His return is Probable.
