2021 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 19, 2021 · FirstEnergy Stadium

Houston Texans

Cleveland BrownsWinner

CLE -13.5 no coverO 48.5 ✓Browns closed -13.5, won by 10 — but didn't cover.

Cleveland Browns 31–21. Biggest swing: Q1 12:06, CLE +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 12:06HOU — CLE CLE ball · 4th & 21CLE 74%

(12:06) 7-J.Gillan punts 37 yards to HOU 28, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-A.Roberts MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CLE-44-S.Takitaki at HOU 35.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 12:06CLE +16% win prob(12:06) 7-J.Gillan punts 37 yards to HOU 28, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-A.Roberts MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CLE-44-S.Takitaki at HOU 35.
Q2 · 7:14CLE +13% win prob(7:14) (Shotgun) 5-Ty.Taylor scrambles right end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 7:59CLE +11% win prob(7:59) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 25-D.Felton for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 5:27CLE +8% win prob(5:27) 5-Ty.Taylor pass short right to 30-P.Lindsay for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Texans	Browns
Offensive plays	58	54
Total yards	302	358 (edge)
Yards per play	5.2	6.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.10	0.15 (edge)
Success rate	40%	57% (edge)
Dropback rate	53%	52%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.41 (edge)	0.16
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.27	0.13 (edge)
Third downs	8/14 (edge)	4/8
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	15	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Browns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs 0.10.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CLE

Baker MayfieldQB

19/21, 213 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

8.0 expected points added · +19.6% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

Tyrod TaylorQB

10/11, 125 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

8.9 expected points added · +19.0% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

11 att, 95 yds, 1 TD

5.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CLE

Kareem HuntRB

13 att, 51 yds, 0 TD

-2.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Brandin CooksWR

9/14 for 78 yds, 1 TD

50% of team targets · 3.6 expected points added

Receiving · CLE

Harrison BryantTE

4/4 for 49 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 3.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 32	6	-2	3:02	Punt
2	CLE	HOU 35	5	35	2:02	Touchdown
3	HOU	HOU 16	10	84	4:38	Touchdown
4	CLE	CLE 25	7	47	3:05	Fumble
5	HOU	HOU 27	7	29	3:19	Punt
6	CLE	CLE 20	8	35	4:10	Interception
7	HOU	CLE 47	7	47	2:38	Touchdown
8	CLE	CLE 25	12	75	5:52	Touchdown
9	HOU	HOU 25	7	20	1:14	Punt
10	HOU	HOU 25	5	4	1:18	Punt
11	CLE	CLE 28	8	72	5:52	Touchdown
12	HOU	HOU 8	4	0	1:33	Interception
13	CLE	HOU 18	4	6	1:37	Turnover on downs
14	HOU	HOU 25	18	63	8:08	Touchdown
15	CLE	CLE 18	11	82	5:40	Touchdown
16	HOU	HOU 22	5	0	0:33	Punt
17	CLE	CLE 37	4	8	1:46	Punt
18	HOU	HOU 12	9	55	1:34	Turnover on downs
19	CLE	CLE 31	3	0	1:59	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 84 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tyrod Taylor	10/11	125	1	0	0	8.9
Davis Mills	8/18	102	1	1	1	0.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Mark Ingram	14	41	2.9	0	-2.6
David Johnson	6	25	4.2	0	0.1
Tyrod Taylor	1	15	15.0	1	3.4
Phillip Lindsay	5	2	0.4	0	-2.4
Davis Mills	2	-1	-0.5	0	-2.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brandin Cooks	9	14	78	1	50%	3.6
Andre Roberts	1	2	35	0	7%	-0.8
Nico Collins	1	1	32	0	4%	2.2
David Johnson	2	2	22	0	7%	2.5
Phillip Lindsay	1	1	22	1	4%	2.7
Jordan Akins	1	2	17	0	7%	1.0
Chris Conley	1	2	13	0	7%	1.3
Danny Amendola	1	1	9	0	4%	0.6
Pharaoh Brown	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.5
Mark Ingram	1	2	-1	0	7%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kamu Grugier-Hill	6	3	1.0	0	0
Zach Cunningham	2	5	0.0	0	0
Christian Kirksey	4	2	0.0	0	0
Vernon Hargreaves	4	1	0.0	0	0
Eric Murray	3	2	0.0	0	0
Joe Thomas	4	1	0.0	0	0
Tremon Smith	2	2	0.0	0	0
Justin Reid	4	0	0.0	1	1
Charles Omenihu	3	1	0.0	0	0
Terrance Mitchell	1	2	0.0	0	0

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	19/21	213	1	1	2	8.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Nick Chubb	11	95	8.6	1	5.5
Kareem Hunt	13	51	3.9	0	-2.4
Baker Mayfield	8	10	1.3	1	1.9
Andy Janovich	2	0	0.0	1	0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Demetric Felton	2	2	51	1	10%	5.1
Harrison Bryant	4	4	49	0	19%	3.1
Austin Hooper	5	5	40	0	24%	3.2
Rashard Higgins	2	2	27	0	10%	3.2
David Njoku	2	3	18	0	14%	0.6
Donovan Peoples-Jones	1	1	14	0	5%	-4.4
Jarvis Landry	1	1	9	0	5%	0.3
Nick Chubb	1	1	3	0	5%	-0.3
Kareem Hunt	1	1	2	0	5%	-1.4
Anthony Schwartz	0	1	0	0	5%	-3.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Malcolm Smith	5	3	0.0	1	1
Ronnie Harrison	5	2	0.0	0	0
Mack Wilson	3	3	0.0	0	0
Grant Delpit	3	3	1.0	0	0
Denzel Ward	4	0	0.0	0	0
Takk McKinley	1	3	0.0	0	0
John Johnson	2	2	0.0	0	0
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah	2	1	0.0	0	1
Greg Newsome	1	2	0.0	0	1
Sione Takitaki	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CLE -13.5
Closing total: 48.5
HOU moneyline: +521
CLE moneyline: -675

Browns closed -13.5, won by 10 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 52 — over by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 75°F, wind 12 mph
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: HOU 7 days · CLE 7 days
Coaches: David Culley vs Kevin Stefanski