2021 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 19, 2021 · M&T Bank Stadium

Kansas City Chiefs

Baltimore RavensWinner

KC -3.5 upsetO 53.5 ✓Chiefs closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Baltimore Ravens 36–35 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:26, KC +57% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:26KC — BAL KC ball · 2nd & 3KC 73%

(1:26) 25-C.Edwards-Helaire left guard to BAL 34 for -2 yards (99-O.Oweh). FUMBLES (99-O.Oweh), RECOVERED by BAL-99-O.Oweh at BAL 34.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:26KC +57% win prob(1:26) 25-C.Edwards-Helaire left guard to BAL 34 for -2 yards (99-O.Oweh). FUMBLES (99-O.Oweh), RECOVERED by BAL-99-O.Oweh at BAL 34.
Q3 · 9:39BAL +15% win prob(9:39) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 5-M.Brown for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 5:31BAL +13% win prob(5:31) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson up the middle to KC 3 for 9 yards (35-C.Ward).
Q3 · 7:07BAL +12% win prob(7:07) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chiefs	Ravens
Offensive plays	49	68
Total yards	405	482 (edge)
Yards per play	8.3 (edge)	7.1
Expected points added / play	0.29 (edge)	0.18
Success rate	57%	62% (edge)
Dropback rate	65%	43%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.58 (edge)	0.01
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.26	0.30 (edge)
Third downs	1/6	6/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	11 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	20	30 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	1
Turnovers	2	2

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

24/31, 343 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

17.2 expected points added · +10.4% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

18/26, 239 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-1.2 expected points added · +4.5% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

16 att, 107 yds, 2 TD

8.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Ty'Son WilliamsRB

13 att, 77 yds, 0 TD

2.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

Marquise BrownWR

6/10 for 113 yds, 1 TD

40% of team targets · 2.2 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

7/8 for 109 yds, 1 TD

27% of team targets · 6.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BAL	BAL 25	4	2	0:50	Defensive touchdown
2	BAL	BAL 25	8	73	3:34	Turnover on downs
3	KC	KC 8	10	92	4:31	Touchdown
4	BAL	BAL 25	10	47	4:52	Interception
5	KC	KC 14	5	27	1:53	Punt
6	BAL	BAL 33	4	7	2:15	Punt
7	KC	KC 11	8	28	3:13	Punt
8	BAL	BAL 28	10	77	5:31	Touchdown
9	KC	KC 33	9	67	2:30	Touchdown
10	BAL	BAL 25	8	65	0:48	Turnover on downs
11	KC	—	1	0	0:03	End of half
12	KC	KC 26	7	69	3:07	Touchdown
13	BAL	BAL 25	6	85	2:23	Touchdown
14	KC	KC 25	8	70	2:40	Touchdown
15	BAL	BAL 25	6	-4	3:36	Punt
16	KC	BAL 49	3	-2	1:13	Interception
17	BAL	BAL 44	6	56	2:48	Touchdown
18	KC	KC 23	7	13	2:57	Punt
19	BAL	BAL 32	15	63	8:02	Touchdown
20	KC	KC 25	5	41	1:54	Fumble
21	BAL	BAL 34	5	11	1:20	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 92 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	24/31	343	3	1	0	17.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	13	46	3.5	0	-4.6
Tyreek Hill	1	15	15.0	0	0.9
Patrick Mahomes	1	3	3.0	0	1.5
Darrel Williams	3	-2	-0.7	1	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Kelce	7	8	109	1	27%	6.9
Byron Pringle	2	2	63	1	7%	4.8
Mecole Hardman	5	8	55	0	27%	1.7
Demarcus Robinson	3	4	46	1	13%	2.8
Blake Bell	1	1	20	0	3%	1.4
Tyreek Hill	3	4	14	0	13%	-0.9
Jerick McKinnon	1	1	14	0	3%	1.9
Joseph Fortson	1	1	11	0	3%	-0.3
Michael Burton	1	1	11	0	3%	0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Anthony Hitchens	7	4	0.0	0	0
Daniel Sorensen	7	3	1.0	0	0
Nick Bolton	7	1	0.0	0	0
Tyrann Mathieu	6	0	0.0	2	3
Charvarius Ward	3	1	0.0	0	0
Khalen Saunders	1	2	0.0	0	0
Ben Niemann	3	0	0.0	0	0
L'Jarius Sneed	3	0	0.0	0	0
Mike Hughes	1	1	0.0	0	0
Rashad Fenton	2	0	0.0	0	0

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	18/26	239	1	2	1	-1.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Lamar Jackson	16	107	6.7	2	8.8
Ty'Son Williams	13	77	5.9	0	2.2
Latavius Murray	9	36	4.0	1	1.3
Devonta Freeman	2	29	14.5	0	0.5
Patrick Ricard	1	2	2.0	0	0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marquise Brown	6	10	113	1	40%	2.2
Mark Andrews	5	5	57	0	20%	1.9
Sammy Watkins	4	7	44	0	28%	-6.6
Ty'Son Williams	2	2	16	0	8%	2.2
Josh Oliver	1	1	9	0	4%	1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Patrick Queen	6	1	0
Tyus Bowser	3	2	0
Anthony Averett	4	1	1
Chris Board	4	1	0
Marlon Humphrey	4	0	1
DeShon Elliott	3	0	0
Malik Harrison	2	1	0
Brandon Stephens	1	2	0
Chuck Clark	2	0	0
Nnamdi Madubuike	2	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -3.5
Closing total: 53.5
KC moneyline: -171
BAL moneyline: +153

Chiefs closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 53.5; the game landed 71 — over by 17.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 82°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: KC 7 days · BAL 6 days
Coaches: Andy Reid vs John Harbaugh