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1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Ravens.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Chiefs158 of 169 plays carry both curves
(1:26) 25-C.Edwards-Helaire left guard to BAL 34 for -2 yards (99-O.Oweh). FUMBLES (99-O.Oweh), RECOVERED by BAL-99-O.Oweh at BAL 34.
Swing +56.5 for RavensExpected points +4.13 for RavensThe model had Ravens 9 points higher than the market did.play 160
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:26KC +57% win prob(1:26) 25-C.Edwards-Helaire left guard to BAL 34 for -2 yards (99-O.Oweh). FUMBLES (99-O.Oweh), RECOVERED by BAL-99-O.Oweh at BAL 34.
3rd · 9:39BAL +15% win prob(9:39) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 5-M.Brown for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 5:31BAL +13% win prob(5:31) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson up the middle to KC 3 for 9 yards (35-C.Ward).
3rd · 7:07BAL +12% win prob(7:07) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:18BAL +12% win prob(3:18) (Shotgun) 63-T.Colon reported in as eligible. 8-L.Jackson right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:19KC +11% win prob(14:19) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right intended for 14-S.Watkins INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu at BAL 34. 32-T.Mathieu for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Lamar Jackson's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 3:18 left in the 4th put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
3rd7:07Travis Kelce·46-yd TD catch46-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+735–24
4th14:21Lamar Jackson·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+635–30
4th3:18Lamar Jackson·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no goodLead never changed again+635–36
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chiefscategory by categoryRavens
Chiefs2–6Ravens
405Total yards482
8.3Yards per play7.1
57%Success rate62%
17%Third-down rate55%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
6Explosive plays11
20First downs30
0Sacks taken1
2Turnovers2
The read
Ravens ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Chiefs, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.58 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.29Chiefs: +0.29 expected points added per play
+0.18Ravens: +0.18 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.58Chiefs: +0.58 expected points added per play
+0.01Ravens: +0.01 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.26Chiefs: −0.26 expected points added per play
+0.30Ravens: +0.30 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 49 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Ravens’s 68 at 43%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 4, Ravens 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
BAL's pass rate over expected, −17.9 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 4.7 points clear of the next team along.
2.5 times their own weekly swing below their number.
66 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
BAL's early-down pass rate, 38.9%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 6.0 points clear of the next team along.
54 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.0 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
KC's sack or hit rate, 3.4%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 0.6 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.2-swing turn from week 1.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 25 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.2 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (−1.70× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Ravens9.4%
inside their normal wobble · −4.8 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.65× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBAL's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -17.9 pts, 16.7 points below their season mean of -1.2 pts and 2.5 times their own 6.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
62Joe ThuneyG · Every snap100%51 snaps
65Trey SmithG · Every snap100%51 snaps
57Orlando BrownT · Every snap100%51 snaps
67Lucas NiangT · Every snap100%51 snaps
52Creed HumphreyC · Every snap100%51 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Every snap100%51 snaps
10Tyreek HillWR · Full-time98%50 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Full-time86%44 snaps
17Mecole HardmanWR · Heavy rotation78%40 snaps
25Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB · Heavy rotation65%33 snaps
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Edwards-Helaire left−51% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:26) 25-C.Edwards-Helaire left guard to BAL 34 for -2 yards (99-O.Oweh). FUMBLES (99-O.Oweh), RECOVERED by BAL-99-O.Oweh at BAL 34.
Q4 1:26 · Chiefs · 2nd & 3 at BAL 32 · lost 2 · -4.13 EP · −51.4% win probability
156 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 92 yards from the KC 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
+0.14
Success rate
51%
Yards
886
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.3173%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR22+0.5041%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR15+0.0467%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.2043%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR9+0.5233%
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR8-0.1125%
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR4——
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR4——
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Ravens0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Chiefs1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens3 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Ravens0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Chiefs6Ravens0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 27
Chiefs7Ravens0
Chiefs7Ravens6
Chiefs7Ravens7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Chiefs 10
Chiefs13Ravens7
Chiefs14Ravens7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chiefs 8 to the Ravens 33
Intercepted10 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Chiefs 24
The period ended5 plays, from the Chiefs 14 to the Chiefs 31
2nd quarter49 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Chiefs 2 to the Chiefs 13
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 33 to the Ravens 40
Punt8 plays, from the Chiefs 11 to the Chiefs 39
Chiefs14Ravens13
Chiefs14Ravens14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Ravens 28 to the Chiefs 5
Chiefs20Ravens14
Chiefs21Ravens14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chiefs 33 to the Ravens 2
Chiefs21Ravens17
Field goal12 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Chiefs 25
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Chiefs27Ravens17
Chiefs28Ravens17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chiefs 26 to the Ravens 40
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Chiefs28Ravens23
Chiefs28Ravens24
Touchdown7 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Chiefs 42
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.8 seconds
Chiefs34Ravens24
Chiefs35Ravens24
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Ravens 46
Punt8 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 37
Intercepted4 plays
The period ended5 plays, from the Ravens 44 to the Chiefs 17
4th quarter41 plays
Chiefs35Ravens30
Touchdown4 plays, from the Chiefs 11 to the Chiefs 2
Punt7 plays, from the Chiefs 23 to the Chiefs 36
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldTwo backs and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Chiefs35Ravens36
Touchdown16 plays, from the Ravens 32 to the Chiefs 1
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Ravens 32
The period ended9 plays, from the Ravens 34 to the Ravens 45
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
