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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:27 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 19, 2021 · M&T Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 2
It turned at Q4 1:26, 2nd and 3, on Clyde Edwards-Helaire — 56.5 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Baltimore Ravens 36–35 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:26, Ravens +56.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:26 · 2nd and 3
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Ravens
(1:26) 25-C.Edwards-Helaire left guard to BAL 34 for -2 yards (99-O.Oweh). FUMBLES (99-O.Oweh), RECOVERED by BAL-99-O.Oweh at BAL 34.
56.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Ravens won this one — 6 of 11 on third down, against Chiefs at 1 of 6 on third down.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.30 expected points per carry, against Chiefs at -0.26 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Ravens won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Chiefs at 6 chunk plays.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chiefs owned this one and still lost it — +0.58 expected points per dropback, against Ravens at +0.01 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Ravens.
(1:26) 25-C.Edwards-Helaire left guard to BAL 34 for -2 yards (99-O.Oweh). FUMBLES (99-O.Oweh), RECOVERED by BAL-99-O.Oweh at BAL 34.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Lamar Jackson's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 3:18 left in the 4th put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lamar Jackson1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no goodLead never changed again+635–3611 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chiefscategory by categoryRavens
Ravens ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Chiefs, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.58 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 49 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Ravens’s 68 at 43%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 4, Ravens 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
6 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BAL's pass rate over expected, −17.9 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 4.7 points clear of the next team along.
66 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points. · −2.5σ from their own normal
BAL's early-down pass rate, 38.9%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 6.0 points clear of the next team along.
54 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.0 points. · −2.0σ from their own normal
KC's sack or hit rate, 3.4%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 0.6 points clear of the next team along.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.4 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 25 pts
Over Expected room →Chiefs8.6 ptsright on their number · −0.6 vs their 9.2 pts, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−0.11× that swing) · 49 snaps
Ravens-17.9 ptsoff script — ran more than the situation asked · −16.7 vs their -1.2 pts, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−2.49× that swing) · 66 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 32% to 91%
Tendencies room →Chiefs60.5%right on their number · −2.3 vs their 62.8%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (−0.21× that swing) · 43 early downs
Ravens38.9%leaned — ran early · −21.6 vs their 60.5%, and they swing ±11.0 week to week (−1.96× that swing) · 54 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -48% to 106%
Fourth Down room →Chiefs—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 41.3%.
Ravens—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 29.0%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 33%
Tendencies room →Chiefs3.4%leaned — stayed blocked · −9.2 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (−1.70× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Ravens9.4%inside their normal wobble · −4.8 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.65× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
BAL's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -17.9 pts, 16.7 points below their season mean of -1.2 pts and 2.5 times their own 6.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · KC
24/31, 343 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
17.2 expected points added · +10.4% completion over expected
Passing · BAL
18/26, 239 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-1.2 expected points added · +4.5% completion over expected
Receiving · BAL
6/10 for 113 yds, 1 TD
40% of team targets · 2.2 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Travis Kelce banked 11.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar JacksonQB · Starter QB | 32.3 | −1.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/26, 239 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 16 car, 107 yd, 2 TD |
| Patrick MahomesQB · Starter QB | 24.0 | +10.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/31, 343 yd, 3 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, 3 yd |
| Travis KelceTE · Alpha Receiver | 23.9 | +11.8 | 86% | 88% | 27% | 12% | 7/8, 109 yd, 1 TD |
| Marquise BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 23.3 | +1.2 | 72% | 80% | 40% | 57% | 6/10, 113 yd, 1 TD |
| Byron PringleWR · Rotational Receiver | 14.3 | +10.4 | 22% | 34% | 7% | 9% | 2/2, 63 yd, 1 TD |
| Demarcus RobinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 13.6 | +5.8 | 59% | 50% | 13% | 22% | 3/4, 46 yd, 1 TD |
| Ty'Son WilliamsRB · Committee Back | 11.3 | −0.1 | 49% | 43% | 8% | 1% | 13 car, 77 yd · 2/2, 16 yd |
| Mark AndrewsTE · Featured Receiver | 10.7 | +1.8 | 75% | 87% | 20% | 12% | 5/5, 57 yd |
| Mecole HardmanWR · Alpha Receiver | 10.5 | −5.8 | 78% | 75% | 27% | 54% | 5/8, 55 yd |
| Latavius MurrayRB | 9.6 | +4.9 | 36% | 27% | 0% | — | 9 car, 36 yd, 1 TD |
| Sammy WatkinsWR · Alpha Receiver | 8.4 | −4.2 | 92% | 97% | 28% | 28% | 4/7, 44 yd |
| Tyreek HillWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.9 | −1.2 | 98% | 97% | 13% | 7% | 1 car, 15 yd · 3/4, 14 yd |
| Darrel WilliamsRB | 5.8 | +1.6 | 27% | 31% | 0% | — | 3 car, -2 yd, 1 TD |
| Blake BellTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | +1.3 | 39% | 25% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 20 yd |
| Devonta FreemanRB | 2.9 | +1.9 | 13% | 17% | 0% | — | 2 car, 29 yd |
| Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB · Bell Cow Back | 2.6 | −4.7 | 65% | 53% | 0% | — | 13 car, 46 yd |
| Jerick McKinnonRB | 2.4 | +0.8 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Michael BurtonRB | 2.1 | +0.4 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Joseph FortsonTE | 2.1 | +0.3 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Josh OliverTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −0.3 | 16% | 17% | 4% | 2% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Patrick RicardRB | 0.2 | −0.1 | 63% | 57% | 0% | — | 1 car, 2 yd |
| Devin DuvernayWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 49% | 37% | 0% | — | No touches. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:26) 25-C.Edwards-Helaire left guard to BAL 34 for -2 yards (99-O.Oweh). FUMBLES (99-O.Oweh), RECOVERED by BAL-99-O.Oweh at BAL 34.
Q4 1:26 · Chiefs · 2nd & 3 at BAL 32 · lost 2 · -4.13 EP · −51.4% win probability
156 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 169 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 92 yards from the KC 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Chiefs6
Ravens0Chiefs7Ravens0Chiefs7Ravens6Chiefs7Ravens7Chiefs13Ravens7Chiefs14Ravens7Chiefs14Ravens13Chiefs14Ravens14Chiefs20Ravens14Chiefs21Ravens14Chiefs21Ravens17Chiefs27Ravens17Chiefs28Ravens17Chiefs28Ravens23Chiefs28Ravens24Chiefs34Ravens24Chiefs35Ravens24Chiefs35Ravens30Chiefs35Ravens36Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chiefs at Ravens, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 24/31 | 343 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +17.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 13 | 46 | 3.5 | 0 | −4.6 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Patrick Mahomes |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 8 | 109 | 1 | 27% | +6.9 |
| Byron Pringle | 2 | 2 | 63 | 1 | 7% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Hitchens | 7 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Sorensen | 7 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bolton |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 18/26 | 239 | 1 | 2 | 1 | −1.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_02_KC_BAL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chiefs closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 53.5; the game landed 71 — over by 17.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 3.0 |
| 0 |
| +1.5 |
| Darrel Williams | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 1 | −0.7 |
| +4.8 |
| Mecole Hardman | 5 | 8 | 55 | 0 | 27% | +1.7 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 3 | 4 | 46 | 1 | 13% | +2.8 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 3% | +1.4 |
| Tyreek Hill | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 13% | −0.9 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 3% | +1.9 |
| Joseph Fortson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| Michael Burton | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | +0.8 |
| 7 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Tyrann Mathieu | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 3 |
| Charvarius Ward | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khalen Saunders | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Niemann | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| L'Jarius Sneed | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Hughes | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashad Fenton | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 16 | 107 | 6.7 | 2 | +8.8 |
| Ty'Son Williams | 13 | 77 | 5.9 | 0 | +2.2 |
| Latavius Murray | 9 | 36 | 4.0 | 1 | +1.3 |
| Devonta Freeman | 2 | 29 | 14.5 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Brown | 6 | 10 | 113 | 1 | 40% | +2.2 |
| Mark Andrews | 5 | 5 | 57 | 0 | 20% | +1.9 |
| Sammy Watkins | 4 | 7 | 44 | 0 | 28% | −6.6 |
| Ty'Son Williams | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 8% | +2.2 |
| Josh Oliver | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 4% | +1.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Queen | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyus Bowser | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Averett | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Chris Board | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marlon Humphrey | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| DeShon Elliott | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Harrison | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Stephens | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chuck Clark | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nnamdi Madubuike | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
