2021 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 19, 2021 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Los Angeles RamsWinner

Indianapolis Colts

LA -4 no coverO 48 ✓DomeRams closed -4, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Los Angeles Rams 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 14:17, LA +23% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 14:17LA — IND LA ball · 4th & 6LA 67%

(14:17) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker Aborted. 42-M.Orzech FUMBLES at LA 5, touched at LA 5, recovered by LA-6-J.Hekker at LA 1. 6-J.Hekker to LA 1 for no gain (45-E.Speed). FUMBLES (45-E.Speed), RECOVERED by IND-16-A.Duli

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 14:17LA +23% win prob(14:17) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker Aborted. 42-M.Orzech FUMBLES at LA 5, touched at LA 5, recovered by LA-6-J.Hekker at LA 1. 6-J.Hekker to LA 1 for no gain (45-E.Speed). FUMBLES (45-E.Speed), RECOVERED by IND-16-A.Dulin at LA -4. TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 12:55IND +16% win prob(12:55) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 10-C.Kupp pushed ob at IND 10 for 44 yards (38-T.Carrie).
Q4 · 9:28IND +12% win prob(9:28) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass deep right to 84-J.Doyle pushed ob at LA 22 for 34 yards (4-J.Fuller).
Q4 · 2:19LA +11% win prob(2:19) (Shotgun) 9-J.Eason pass deep right intended for 84-J.Doyle INTERCEPTED by 5-J.Ramsey [54-L.Floyd] at IND 45. 5-J.Ramsey ran ob at IND 45 for no gain.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Rams	Colts
Offensive plays	60	66
Total yards	371 (edge)	356
Yards per play	6.2 (edge)	5.4
Expected points added / play	0.08 (edge)	-0.08
Success rate	47% (edge)	44%
Dropback rate	53%	68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.38 (edge)	-0.07
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.27	-0.09 (edge)
Third downs	3/9	5/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	21	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	2	2

Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.08.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

19/30, 278 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

11.9 expected points added · -4.3% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Carson WentzQB

20/31, 247 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-1.3 expected points added · +0.2% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Darrell HendersonRB

13 att, 53 yds, 1 TD

0.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

15 att, 51 yds, 0 TD

-1.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Cooper KuppWR

9/11 for 163 yds, 2 TD

38% of team targets · 11.3 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Michael PittmanWR

8/12 for 123 yds, 0 TD

34% of team targets · 5.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	IND	IND 41	12	49	6:47	Turnover on downs
2	LA	LA 10	9	90	4:55	Touchdown
3	IND	IND 25	8	50	3:26	Turnover on downs
4	LA	LA 22	3	0	0:15	Interception
5	IND	LA 42	7	39	4:28	Interception
6	LA	LA 5	16	79	8:18	Turnover on downs
7	IND	IND 25	11	47	1:51	Turnover on downs
8	LA	LA 26	9	74	3:24	Touchdown
9	IND	IND 25	5	-9	1:33	Punt
10	LA	LA 39	4	2	0:42	Punt
11	IND	IND 26	12	76	5:38	Touchdown
12	LA	LA 25	5	-8	0:54	Punt
13	IND	IND 37	6	16	2:28	Punt
14	LA	LA 7	4	4	1:09	Defensive touchdown
15	LA	LA 30	6	70	2:03	Touchdown
16	IND	IND 25	10	63	4:47	Turnover on downs
17	LA	LA 25	13	55	4:59	Turnover on downs
18	IND	IND 25	3	0	0:10	Interception
19	LA	IND 45	4	5	1:49	Punt
20	IND	IND 10	3	25	0:24	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 90 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	19/30	278	2	1	1	11.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Darrell Henderson	13	53	4.1	1	0.0
Sony Michel	10	46	4.6	0	0.0
Robert Woods	2	6	3.0	0	-0.2
Matthew Stafford	2	1	0.5	0	-0.9
Johnny Hekker	1	0	0.0	0	-4.7
Cooper Kupp	1	-5	-5.0	0	-1.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cooper Kupp	9	11	163	2	38%	11.3
Robert Woods	5	9	64	0	31%	3.1
Darrell Henderson	3	5	29	0	17%	-0.3
Van Jefferson	1	3	14	0	10%	-1.2
Tyler Higbee	1	1	8	0	3%	1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Sebastian Joseph	3	3	1.0	0	0
Jordan Fuller	5	1	0.0	0	0
Darious Williams	6	0	0.0	0	1
Taylor Rapp	4	1	0.5	0	1
Leonard Floyd	1	4	1.0	0	0
Kenny Young	3	1	0.0	0	0
Jalen Ramsey	1	2	0.0	1	1
David Long	2	0	0.0	0	0
Greg Gaines	1	1	0.5	0	0
Robert Rochell	1	1	0.0	0	0

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Carson Wentz	20/31	247	1	1	3	-1.3
Jacob Eason	2/5	25	0	1	0	-3.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jonathan Taylor	15	51	3.4	-1.7
Carson Wentz	5	37	7.4	1.1
Marlon Mack	5	16	3.2	-0.9
Nyheim Miller-Hines	1	5	5.0	0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Pittman	8	12	123	0	34%	5.2
Jack Doyle	5	8	64	0	23%	-2.1
Zach Pascal	5	6	38	1	17%	3.1
Mo Alie-Cox	1	2	18	0	6%	1.1
Nyheim Miller-Hines	1	2	17	0	6%	-1.5
Ashton Dulin	1	2	10	0	6%	0.4
Jonathan Taylor	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.4
Marlon Mack	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5
Mike Strachan	0	1	0	0	3%	0.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Khari Willis	6	1	1	1
T.J. Carrie	6	1	0	0
Kenny Moore	6	1	0	0
Shaquille Leonard	3	3	0	1
DeForest Buckner	1	4	0	1
Bobby Okereke	1	3	0	0
Julian Blackmon	2	2	0	1
Grover Stewart	1	2	0	0
Rock Ya-Sin	1	1	0	0
Kwity Paye	1	1	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LA -4
Closing total: 48
LA moneyline: -205
IND moneyline: +182

Rams closed -4, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 48; the game landed 51 — over by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: LA 7 days · IND 7 days
Coaches: Sean McVay vs Frank Reich