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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:37 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 19, 2021 · Lucas Oil Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 2
It turned at Q4 14:17, 4th and 6 — 23.2 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 14:17 · 4th and 6
Unnamed on the sheet
Colts
(14:17) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker Aborted. 42-M.Orzech FUMBLES at LA 5, touched at LA 5, recovered by LA-6-J.Hekker at LA 1. 6-J.Hekker to LA 1 for no gain (45-E.Speed). FUMBLES (45-E.Speed), RECOVERED by IND-16-A.Dulin at LA -4. TOUCHDOWN.
Los Angeles Rams 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 14:17, Colts +23.2% win probability on one snap.
23.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Rams won this one — +0.38 expected points per dropback, against Colts at -0.07 expected points per dropback.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Rams won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Colts at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 5 of 11 on third down, against Rams at 3 of 9 on third down.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Colts owned this one and still lost it — -0.09 expected points per carry, against Rams at -0.27 expected points per carry.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 12.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
(14:17) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker Aborted. 42-M.Orzech FUMBLES at LA 5, touched at LA 5, recovered by LA-6-J.Hekker at LA 1. 6-J.Hekker to LA 1 for no gain (45-E.Speed). FUMBLES (45-E.Speed), RECOVERED by IND-16-A.Duli
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Matt Gay's 38-yard field goal with 2:27 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Matt Gay38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap M.OrzechLead never changed again+327–2410 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Ramscategory by categoryColts
Rams ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 60 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Colts’s 66 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Rams 5, Colts 4.
Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.08.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LA's sack or hit rate, 22.2%, sat 9.5 points above their season number of 12.7% — they got home by 2.1 times their own 4.6-point weekly swing.
45 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Rams0.4 ptsright on their number · −2.4 vs their 2.8 pts, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.44× that swing) · 60 snaps
Colts4.0 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +8.5 vs their -4.6 pts, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (+1.02× that swing) · 65 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 13% to 89%
Tendencies room →Rams50.0%inside their normal wobble · −8.2 vs their 58.2%, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (−0.86× that swing) · 50 early downs
Colts66.0%leaned — passed early · +15.0 vs their 51.0%, and they swing ±14.9 week to week (+1.01× that swing) · 53 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18% to 121%
Fourth Down room →Rams—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 28.6%.
Colts33.3%inside their normal wobble · −18.3 vs their 51.7%, and they swing ±27.1 week to week (−0.68× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 32%
Tendencies room →Rams22.2%off script — got home · +9.5 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (+2.07× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Colts9.4%right on their number · −3.4 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.46× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
LA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 22.2%, 9.5 points above their season mean of 12.7% and 2.1 times their own 4.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · LA
19/30, 278 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
11.9 expected points added · -4.3% completion over expected
Passing · IND
20/31, 247 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-1.3 expected points added · +0.2% completion over expected
Receiving · IND
8/12 for 123 yds, 0 TD
34% of team targets · 5.2 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Zach Pascal banked 4.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael PittmanWR · Alpha Receiver | 20.3 | +1.4 | 90% | 84% | 34% | 50% | 8/12, 123 yd |
| Carson WentzQB · Starter QB | 17.6 | −1.7 | 93% | — | 0% | — | 20/31, 247 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 5 car, 37 yd |
| Zach PascalWR · Rotational Receiver | 14.8 | +4.9 | 91% | 84% | 17% | 9% | 5/6, 38 yd, 1 TD |
| Jack DoyleTE · Featured Receiver | 13.4 | −2.0 | 75% | 73% | 23% | 15% | 5/8, 64 yd |
| Jonathan TaylorRB · Committee Back | 6.3 | −15.0 | 45% | 33% | 3% | 0% | 15 car, 51 yd · 1/1, 2 yd |
| Nyheim Miller-HinesRB | 3.2 | +0.2 | 37% | 49% | 6% | 2% | 1 car, 5 yd · 1/2, 17 yd |
| Mo Alie-CoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | 0.0 | 40% | 29% | 6% | 2% | 1/2, 18 yd |
| Ashton DulinWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −1.5 | 39% | 33% | 6% | 8% | 1/2, 10 yd |
| Marlon MackRB | 1.6 | −2.3 | 19% | 9% | 3% | 0% | 5 car, 16 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Mike StrachanWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.8 | 51% | 44% | 3% | 10% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jacob EasonQB | -1.0 | −2.3 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(14:17) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker Aborted. 42-M.Orzech FUMBLES at LA 5, touched at LA 5, recovered by LA-6-J.Hekker at LA 1. 6-J.Hekker to LA 1 for no gain (45-E.Speed). FUMBLES (45-E.Speed), RECOVERED by IND-16-A.Dulin at LA -4. TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 14:17 · Rams · 4th & 6 at LA 11 · gained nothing · -4.71 EP · −25.2% win probability
154 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 166 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 90 yards from the LA 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Rams6
Colts0Rams7Colts0Rams7Colts3Rams10Colts3Rams10Colts6Rams16Colts6Rams17Colts6Rams17Colts12Rams17Colts14Rams17Colts20Rams17Colts21Rams23Colts21Rams24Colts21Rams24Colts24Rams27Colts24Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Rams at Colts, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 19/30 | 278 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +11.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Henderson | 13 | 53 | 4.1 | 1 | +0.0 |
| Sony Michel | 10 | 46 | 4.6 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 9 | 11 | 163 | 2 | 38% | +11.3 |
| Robert Woods | 5 | 9 | 64 | 0 | 31% | +3.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Joseph | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Fuller | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darious Williams | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Taylor Rapp |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 20/31 | 247 | 1 | 1 | 3 | −1.3 |
| Jacob Eason | 2/5 | 25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | −3.1 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_02_LA_IND
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Rams closed -4, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 48; the game landed 51 — over by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Johnny Hekker | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −4.7 |
| Cooper Kupp | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Darrell Henderson | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 | 17% | −0.3 |
| Van Jefferson | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 10% | −1.2 |
| Tyler Higbee | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +1.3 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.5 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Leonard Floyd | 1 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Young | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Ramsey | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| David Long | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Gaines | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Rochell | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 15 | 51 | 3.4 | 0 | −1.7 |
| Carson Wentz | 5 | 37 | 7.4 | 0 | +1.1 |
| Marlon Mack | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 8 | 12 | 123 | 0 | 34% | +5.2 |
| Jack Doyle | 5 | 8 | 64 | 0 | 23% | −2.1 |
| Zach Pascal | 5 | 6 | 38 | 1 | 17% | +3.1 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 6% | +1.1 |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 6% | −1.5 |
| Ashton Dulin | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 6% | +0.4 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| Marlon Mack | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Mike Strachan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | +0.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khari Willis | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| T.J. Carrie | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Moore | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaquille Leonard | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| DeForest Buckner | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bobby Okereke | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Blackmon | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Grover Stewart | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rock Ya-Sin | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kwity Paye | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
