2021 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 19, 2021 · Heinz Field

Las Vegas RaidersWinner

Pittsburgh Steelers

PIT -5.5 upsetU 46.5 ✓Steelers closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Las Vegas Raiders 26–17. Biggest swing: Q4 9:44, PIT +23% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 9:44LV — PIT LV ball · 3rd & 10LV 61%

(9:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 11-H.Ruggs for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 9:44PIT +23% win prob(9:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 11-H.Ruggs for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 7:33PIT +13% win prob(7:33) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 18-D.Johnson pushed ob at LV 5 for 41 yards (27-T.Mullen). Penalty on LV-27-T.Mullen, Illegal Contact, declined.
Q4 · 11:23PIT +12% win prob(11:23) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 22-N.Harris for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LV-92-S.Thomas, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting. Penalty on PIT-51-T.Turner, Disqualification, offsetting.
Q4 · 12:14PIT +12% win prob(12:14) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 11-C.Claypool to LV 25 for 52 yards (24-J.Abram).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Raiders	Steelers
Offensive plays	64	56
Total yards	425 (edge)	331
Yards per play	6.6 (edge)	5.9
Expected points added / play	0.22 (edge)	0.00
Success rate	52% (edge)	32%
Dropback rate	63%	75%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.56 (edge)	0.06
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.34	-0.19 (edge)
Third downs	5/13	5/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Raiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs 0.00.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LV

Derek CarrQB

28/37, 382 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

20.6 expected points added · +9.8% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Ben RoethlisbergerQB

27/40, 295 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

2.7 expected points added · +4.3% completion over expected

Rushing · PIT

Najee HarrisRB

10 att, 38 yds, 0 TD

-2.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LV

Peyton BarberRB

13 att, 32 yds, 0 TD

-4.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LV

Henry RuggsWR

5/7 for 113 yds, 1 TD

19% of team targets · 8.1 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

Diontae JohnsonWR

9/12 for 105 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · -0.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PIT	PIT 32	8	14	3:33	Punt
2	LV	LV 16	7	19	3:12	Punt
3	PIT	PIT 8	5	14	2:31	Interception
4	LV	PIT 39	5	20	2:34	Turnover on downs
5	PIT	PIT 22	11	50	4:38	Turnover on downs
6	LV	LV 38	8	27	3:58	Turnover on downs
7	PIT	PIT 25	9	75	3:09	Touchdown
8	LV	LV 25	14	73	6:23	Turnover on downs
9	PIT	—	1	0	0:02	End of half
10	LV	LV 25	8	22	2:45	Punt
11	PIT	PIT 13	7	20	3:04	Punt
12	LV	LV 18	8	82	4:09	Touchdown
13	PIT	PIT 17	8	28	3:19	Punt
14	LV	LV 3	8	47	3:47	Punt
15	PIT	PIT 20	6	80	1:41	Touchdown
16	LV	LV 25	7	75	1:40	Touchdown
17	PIT	PIT 25	5	9	1:12	Punt
18	LV	LV 24	5	14	2:32	Punt
19	PIT	PIT 32	8	30	2:09	Turnover on downs
20	LV	LV 27	8	46	3:22	Turnover on downs
21	PIT	PIT 25	2	11	0:20	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Raiders gained 82 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	28/37	382	2	0	2	20.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Peyton Barber	13	32	2.5	-4.9
Derek Carr	4	9	2.3	2.7
Kenyan Drake	7	9	1.3	-4.4
Henry Ruggs	1	2	2.0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Henry Ruggs	5	7	113	1	19%	8.1
Darren Waller	5	7	65	0	19%	3.0
Hunter Renfrow	5	7	57	0	19%	3.9
Kenyan Drake	5	6	46	0	16%	1.1
Bryan Edwards	3	3	40	0	8%	2.5
Foster Moreau	2	3	34	1	8%	2.7
Willie Snead	1	1	14	0	3%	1.9
Derek Carrier	2	2	13	0	5%	0.8
Alec Ingold	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Denzel Perryman	4	6	0.0	0	0
Johnathan Abram	5	2	0.0	0	0
Trayvon Mullen	6	1	0.0	1	2
Nate Hobbs	3	2	0.0	0	0
Cory Littleton	2	2	0.0	0	0
Trevon Moehrig	3	0	0.0	0	0
Dallin Leavitt	0	3	0.0	0	1
Casey Hayward	1	1	0.0	0	2
Solomon Thomas	2	0	2.0	0	1
Derek Carrier	1	0	0.0	0	0

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ben Roethlisberger	27/40	295	1	1	2	2.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Najee Harris	10	38	3.8	0	-2.0
JuJu Smith-Schuster	1	3	3.0	1	1.4
Benny Snell	2	1	0.5	0	-1.1
Chase Claypool	1	-3	-3.0	0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Diontae Johnson	9	12	105	0	30%	-0.3
Chase Claypool	3	9	70	0	23%	-3.2
Najee Harris	5	5	43	1	13%	4.5
JuJu Smith-Schuster	6	7	41	0	18%	1.9
Pat Freiermuth	4	4	36	0	10%	4.6
James Washington	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.7
Eric Ebron	0	2	0	0	5%	-2.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Robert Spillane	6	5	0.0	0
Joe Schobert	6	4	0.0	2
Cameron Heyward	3	3	0.0	1
Minkah Fitzpatrick	4	2	0.0	0
Terrell Edmunds	4	1	0.0	0
James Pierre	4	1	0.0	0
T.J. Watt	3	1	1.0	0
Melvin Ingram	1	3	1.0	0
Cameron Sutton	2	1	0.0	0
Alex Highsmith	2	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PIT -5.5
Closing total: 46.5
LV moneyline: +201
PIT moneyline: -228

Steelers closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 43 — under by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Heinz Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 77°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Jerome Boger
Rest: LV 6 days · PIT 7 days
Coaches: Jon Gruden vs Mike Tomlin