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Las Vegas Raiders 26 at Pittsburgh Steelers 17. Final.
Steelers -5.5 upset
The verdict · 2021 Week 2
Las Vegas Raiders 26, Steelers 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 9:44, 3rd and 10, on Henry Ruggs — 22.6 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 9:44 · 3rd and 10
Henry Ruggs
Raiders
(9:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 11-H.Ruggs for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
U 46.5 ✓
Steelers closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Las Vegas Raiders 26–17. Biggest swing: Q4 9:44, Raiders +22.6% win probability on one snap.
22.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Diontae JohnsonSteelersQ2 7:33(7:33) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 18-D.Johnson pushed ob at LV 5 for 41 yards (27-T.Mullen). Penalty on LV-27-T.Mullen, Illegal Contact, declined.
12.6pts
Najee HarrisSteelersQ4 11:23(11:23) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 22-N.Harris for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LV-92-S.Thomas, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting. Penalty on PIT-51-T.Turner, Disqualification, offsetting.
12.4pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Raiders won this one — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Steelers at 32% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Raiders won this one — +0.56 expected points per dropback, against Steelers at +0.06 expected points per dropback.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Raiders won this one — +0.22 expected points per snap, against Steelers at +0.00 expected points per snap.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Steelers owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Raiders at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Steelersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Raiders156 of 168 plays carry both curves
(9:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 11-H.Ruggs for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −22.6 for SteelersExpected points −6.46 for SteelersModel and market agree here.play 135
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 9:44PIT +23% win prob(9:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 11-H.Ruggs for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 7:33PIT +13% win prob(7:33) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 18-D.Johnson pushed ob at LV 5 for 41 yards (27-T.Mullen). Penalty on LV-27-T.Mullen, Illegal Contact, declined.
4th · 11:23PIT +12% win prob(11:23) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 22-N.Harris for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LV-92-S.Thomas, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting. Penalty on PIT-51-T.Turner, Disqualification, offsetting.
4th · 12:14PIT +12% win prob(12:14) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 11-C.Claypool to LV 25 for 52 yards (24-J.Abram).
3rd · 7:08PIT +10% win prob(7:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 13-H.Renfrow to PIT 40 for 23 yards (21-T.Norwood).
1st · 5:59LV +9% win prob(5:59) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left intended for 18-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 27-T.Mullen [98-M.Crosby] at LV 43. 27-T.Mullen to PIT 39 for 18 yards.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Daniel Carlson's 41-yard field goal with 0:06 left in the 2nd put Las Vegas Raiders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st3:14Daniel Carlson·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap T.Sieg+33–0
2nd9:37Daniel Carlson·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap T.Sieg+36–0
4th3:47Chris Boswell·56-yd field goal56-yard field goalholder P.Harvin · snap C.Kuntz+323–17
4th0:24Daniel Carlson·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap T.Sieg+326–17
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Raiderscategory by categorySteelers
Raiders6–1Steelers
425Total yards331
6.6Yards per play5.9
52%Success rate32%
38%Third-down rate42%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
7Explosive plays5
21First downs17
2Sacks taken2
0Turnovers1
The read
Raiders ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.56 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.22Raiders: +0.22 expected points added per play
+0.00Steelers: +0.00 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.56Raiders: +0.56 expected points added per play
+0.06Steelers: +0.06 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.34Raiders: −0.34 expected points added per play
−0.19Steelers: −0.19 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 64 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Steelers’s 56 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 4, Steelers 2.
NoteRaiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs 0.00.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 19 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.6 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.75× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Steelers12.5%
right on their number · −2.9 vs their 15.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.48× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLV's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 11.6 pts, 9.5 points above their season mean of 2.1 pts and 1.5 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Carr pass+25% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(9:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 11-H.Ruggs for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 9:44 · Raiders · 3rd & 10 at LV 39 · gained 61 · +6.46 EP · +24.6% win probability
154 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 82 yards from the LV 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
40%
Yards
756
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47-0.0983%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.3081%
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR12+0.0117%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR11-0.1364%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.5133%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.7467%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.0940%
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Steelers 32 to the Steelers 46
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 16 to the Raiders 35
Intercepted5 plays, from the Steelers 8 to the Steelers 22
Raiders3Steelers0
Field goal6 plays, from the Steelers 39 to the Steelers 27
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.2 seconds
The period ended8 plays, from the Steelers 22 to the Steelers 39
2nd quarter45 plays
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Raiders 44 to the Raiders 38
Raiders6Steelers0
Field goal9 plays, from the Raiders 38 to the Steelers 15
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Raiders6Steelers6
Raiders6Steelers7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Raiders 3
Raiders9Steelers7
Field goal20 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Steelers 2
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 47
Punt7 plays, from the Steelers 13 to the Steelers 33
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Raiders15Steelers7
Raiders16Steelers7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Raiders 18 to the Steelers 9
Punt9 plays, from the Steelers 17 to the Raiders 45
The period ended4 plays, from the Raiders 3 to the Raiders 18
4th quarter52 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 31 to the Steelers 46
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Raiders16Steelers13
Raiders16Steelers14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Raiders 25
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Raiders22Steelers14
Raiders23Steelers14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 39
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 34
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 24 to the Raiders 42
Raiders23Steelers17
Field goal8 plays, from the Steelers 32 to the Raiders 38
Raiders26Steelers17
Field goal10 plays, from the Raiders 27 to the Steelers 27
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
