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Minnesota Vikings 33 at Arizona Cardinals 34. Final.
Cardinals -4 no coverO 51 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 2
Arizona Cardinals 34, Vikings 33 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:04, 1st and 10, on Greg Joseph — 65.7 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:04 · 1st and 10
Greg Joseph
Cardinals
(:04) 1-G.Joseph 37 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.
Dome
Cardinals closed -4, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Arizona Cardinals 34–33 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:04, Cardinals +65.7% win probability on one snap.
65.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Nick VigilVikingsQ3 14:09(14:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right intended for 4-R.Moore INTERCEPTED by 59-N.Vigil at ARI 38. 59-N.Vigil for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
26.7pts
Christian KirkCardinalsQ4 6:12(6:12) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep middle to 13-C.Kirk to MIN 6 for 35 yards (24-M.Alexander).
26.9pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Cardinals at 3 giveaways.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Cardinals won this one — 3 of 9 on third down, against Vikings at 2 of 10 on third down.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Cardinals at 7 chunk plays.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — +0.07 expected points per carry, against Cardinals at -0.10 expected points per carry.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Vikings164 of 176 plays carry both curves
(:04) 1-G.Joseph 37 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.
Swing +65.7 for CardinalsExpected points +2.69 for CardinalsThe model had Vikings 8 points higher than the market did.play 175
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:04MIN +66% win prob(:04) 1-G.Joseph 37 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.
4th · 6:12ARI +27% win prob(6:12) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep middle to 13-C.Kirk to MIN 6 for 35 yards (24-M.Alexander).
3rd · 14:09MIN +27% win prob(14:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right intended for 4-R.Moore INTERCEPTED by 59-N.Vigil at ARI 38. 59-N.Vigil for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:46ARI +26% win prob(1:46) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 4-R.Moore for 77 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:21ARI +19% win prob(1:21) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 19-A.Thielen pushed ob at ARI 36 for 12 yards (23-R.Alford).
3rd · 3:43MIN +13% win prob(3:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep middle intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 23-X.Woods at MIN 4. 23-X.Woods ran ob at MIN 31 for 27 yards (71-J.Murray).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Matt Prater's 27-yard field goal with 4:29 left in the 4th put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th14:16Greg Joseph·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap A.DePaola+333–31
4th4:29Matt Prater·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder A.Lee · snap A.BrewerLead never changed again+333–34
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Vikingscategory by categoryCardinals
Vikings3–5Cardinals
419Total yards474
7.0Yards per play7.9
52%Success rate52%
20%Third-down rate33%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
9Explosive plays7
21First downs22
1Sacks taken3
0Turnovers3
The read
Cardinals ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Vikings, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.19Vikings: +0.19 expected points added per play
+0.12Cardinals: +0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.28Vikings: +0.28 expected points added per play
+0.21Cardinals: +0.21 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.07Vikings: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.10Cardinals: −0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 60 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 60 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 4, Cardinals 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ARI's pass rate over expected turned over: −3.3 pts in week 1 against +9.1 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
60 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.9 points.
MIN's sack or hit rate turned over: 22.6% in week 1 against 7.1% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 3.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.8 points.
MIN's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 66.7% in week 1 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 25.0 points.
ARI's sack or hit rate turned over: 22.7% in week 1 against 11.4% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 13 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.0 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−1.45× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Cardinals11.4%
leaned — stayed blocked · −5.0 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−1.00× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteARI's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 9.1 pts, 8.9 points above their season mean of 0.2 pts and 1.8 times their own 4.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
69Rashod HillT · Every snap100%61 snaps
75Brian O'NeillT · Every snap100%61 snaps
74Olisaemeka UdohT · Every snap100%61 snaps
72Ezra ClevelandG · Every snap100%61 snaps
56Garrett BradburyC · Every snap100%61 snaps
19Adam ThielenWR · Every snap100%61 snaps
8Kirk CousinsQB · Every snap100%61 snaps
18Justin JeffersonWR · Full-time87%53 snaps
83Tyler ConklinTE · Full-time80%49 snaps
33Dalvin CookRB · Heavy rotation77%47 snaps
17K.J. OsbornWR · Heavy rotation59%36 snaps
82Ben EllefsonTE · Rotational26%16 snaps
30C.J. HamFB · Rotational25%15 snaps
25Alexander MattisonRB · Situational21%13 snaps
89Christopher HerndonTE · Situational20%12 snaps
12Dede WestbrookWR · Situational3%2 snaps
31Ameer AbdullahRB · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Harrison HandCBEverson GriffenDEChazz SurrattLBJames LynchNTAnthony BarrOLBKellen MondQBChristian DarrisawT
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 6 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Greg Joseph−74% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:04) 1-G.Joseph 37 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.
Q4 0:04 · Vikings · 1st & 10 at ARI 19 · gained nothing · -2.69 EP · −73.7% win probability
162 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 84 yards from the MIN 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
45%
Yards
893
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.0667%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28-0.1879%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.0938%
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR13+0.8285%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.8422%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.1675%
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.170%
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Vikings3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Vikings1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Vikings0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Vikings6Cardinals0
Vikings7Cardinals0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 36
Punt8 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 29
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 33
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.9 seconds
Vikings7Cardinals6
Vikings7Cardinals7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Cardinals 27 to the Vikings 15
Vikings13Cardinals7
Vikings14Cardinals7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Cardinals 7
The period ended4 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 31
2nd quarter48 plays
Punt2 plays
Vikings20Cardinals7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Vikings 16 to the Cardinals 14
Vikings20Cardinals13
Vikings20Cardinals14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Vikings 5
Punt6 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 34
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.6 seconds
Vikings20Cardinals20
Vikings20Cardinals21
Touchdown2 plays
Vikings23Cardinals21
Field goal11 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Cardinals 34
Vikings23Cardinals24
Field goal4 plays, from the Cardinals 34 to the Vikings 44
3rd quarter37 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Vikings29Cardinals24
Touchdown3 plays, from the Cardinals 24 to the Cardinals 32
Vikings30Cardinals24
Vikings30Cardinals30
Vikings30Cardinals31
Touchdown10 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Vikings 9
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 18 to the Vikings 40
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.1 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Cardinals 18 to the Vikings 38
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
The period ended11 plays, from the Vikings 31 to the Cardinals 38
4th quarter49 plays
Vikings33Cardinals31
Field goal2 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 45
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 2 to the Vikings 9
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Vikings33Cardinals34
Field goal12 plays, from the Cardinals 36 to the Vikings 6
Punt6 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 29
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 39 to the Cardinals 43
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
No good10 plays, from the Vikings 23 to the Cardinals 19
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
