2021 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 19, 2021 · MetLife Stadium

New England PatriotsWinner

New York Jets

NE -5.5 ✓U 43 ✓Patriots closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 19.

New England Patriots 25–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 7:54, NE +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 7:54NE — NYJ NYJ ball · 2nd & 2NE 64%

(7:54) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep middle intended for 84-C.Davis INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Jackson (32-D.McCourty) at NYJ 35. 27-J.Jackson to NYJ 35 for no gain (8-E.Moore).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 7:54NE +11% win prob(7:54) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep middle intended for 84-C.Davis INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Jackson (32-D.McCourty) at NYJ 35. 27-J.Jackson to NYJ 35 for no gain (8-E.Moore).
Q2 · 5:57NE +7% win prob(5:57) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right intended for 8-E.Moore INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Jackson at NE 13. 27-J.Jackson to NE 14 for 1 yard (8-E.Moore).
Q1 · 4:17NE +7% win prob(4:17) (No Huddle) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep right intended for 84-C.Davis INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Phillips at NE 27. 21-A.Phillips to NE 28 for 1 yard (81-T.Kroft).
Q1 · 11:13NYJ +6% win prob(11:13) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 28-J.White to NE 49 for no gain (57-C.Mosley). PENALTY on NYJ-50-S.Lawson, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at NE 49 - No Play.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Jets
Offensive plays	57	67
Total yards	260	337 (edge)
Yards per play	4.6	5.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.05 (edge)	-0.32
Success rate	40% (edge)	39%
Dropback rate	58%	58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.13 (edge)	-0.51
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.05 (edge)	-0.05
Third downs	3/12	5/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	10 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	15	15
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	4
Turnovers	0 (edge)	4

Jets outgained Patriots 337–260 but lost the turnover battle 4–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYJ

Zach WilsonQB

19/33, 210 yds, 0 TD, 4 INT

-23.7 expected points added · -7.4% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Mac JonesQB

22/30, 186 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-4.4 expected points added · +5.4% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Damien HarrisRB

16 att, 62 yds, 1 TD

-0.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Michael CarterRB

11 att, 59 yds, 0 TD

1.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYJ

Braxton BerriosWR

7/11 for 73 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · -5.9 expected points added

Receiving · NYJ

Elijah MooreWR

4/8 for 47 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · -5.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 25	11	20	6:32	Punt
2	NYJ	NYJ 8	2	8	0:43	Interception
3	NE	NYJ 35	6	12	2:59	Turnover on downs
4	NYJ	NYJ 40	3	13	0:36	Interception
5	NE	NE 28	7	68	3:13	Touchdown
6	NYJ	NYJ 38	12	59	6:05	Turnover on downs
7	NE	NE 25	5	-14	1:58	Punt
8	NYJ	NYJ 49	4	23	2:04	Interception
9	NE	NE 14	5	25	1:48	Punt
10	NYJ	NYJ 17	4	15	1:53	Punt
11	NE	NE 31	10	48	1:56	Turnover on downs
12	NYJ	NYJ 25	2	0	0:13	End of half
13	NYJ	NYJ 22	8	22	3:45	Interception
14	NE	NYJ 35	3	35	0:51	Touchdown
15	NYJ	NYJ 10	11	36	5:44	Turnover on downs
16	NE	NE 43	8	53	3:31	Turnover on downs
17	NYJ	NYJ 26	8	32	3:27	Turnover on downs
18	NE	NE 48	4	0	1:30	Punt
19	NYJ	NYJ 17	12	66	5:01	Turnover on downs
20	NE	NE 21	5	1	1:00	Punt
21	NYJ	NYJ 18	4	8	0:40	Turnover on downs
22	NE	NYJ 25	7	12	2:34	Turnover on downs
23	NYJ	NYJ 25	9	55	1:57	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 68 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mac Jones	22/30	186	0	0	3	-4.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Damien Harris	16	62	3.9	1	-0.2
James White	5	20	4.0	1	1.0
Kendrick Bourne	1	16	16.0	0	2.0
J.J. Taylor	2	3	1.5	0	-1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
James White	6	6	45	21%	2.4
Hunter Henry	2	4	42	14%	1.7
Jakobi Meyers	4	6	38	21%	-0.2
Jonnu Smith	4	5	28	18%	-0.2
Nelson Agholor	3	3	21	11%	0.9
Kendrick Bourne	2	3	10	11%	-0.4
Damien Harris	1	1	2	4%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Ja'Whaun Bentley	7	2	0.0	0	1
Devin McCourty	4	1	0.0	1	2
Dont'a Hightower	3	2	0.0	0	0
Jonathan Jones	4	0	0.0	0	1
Joejuan Williams	4	0	0.0	0	1
Lawrence Guy	1	3	0.0	0	0
Jalen Mills	2	1	0.0	0	0
J.C. Jackson	3	0	0.0	2	2
Joshua Uche	3	0	2.0	0	0
Kyle Dugger	2	1	0.0	0	0

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Zach Wilson	19/33	210	0	4	4	-23.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Michael Carter	11	59	5.4	1.5
Ty Johnson	12	50	4.2	-2.5
Tevin Coleman	5	24	4.8	-0.5
Zach Wilson	3	19	6.3	3.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Braxton Berrios	7	11	73	33%	-5.9
Elijah Moore	4	8	47	24%	-5.3
Jeff Smith	1	2	35	6%	2.3
Michael Carter	2	3	29	9%	1.6
Ryan Griffin	2	2	10	6%	0.1
Corey Davis	2	5	8	15%	-10.3
Tyler Kroft	1	2	8	6%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Michael Carter	4	4	0.0	0
C.J. Mosley	5	3	0.0	1
Marcus Maye	4	2	1.0	1
Quincy Williams	3	2	0.0	0
Bryce Hall	4	1	0.0	0
Adrian Colbert	3	2	0.0	0
Javelin Guidry	3	1	0.0	0
John Franklin-Myers	1	2	1.0	0
Shaq Lawson	2	1	0.0	0
Elijah Moore	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -5.5
Closing total: 43
NE moneyline: -235
NYJ moneyline: +207

Patriots closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 19.

Total closed 43; the game landed 31 — under by 12.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 72°F, wind 13 mph
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: NE 7 days · NYJ 7 days
Coaches: Bill Belichick vs Robert Saleh

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.