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New England Patriots 25 at New York Jets 6. Final.
Patriots -5.5 ✓U 43 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 2
New England Patriots 25, Jets 6 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 7:54, 2nd and 2, on J.C. Jackson — 11.3 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 7:54 · 2nd and 2
J.C. Jackson
Patriots
(7:54) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep middle intended for 84-C.Davis INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Jackson (32-D.McCourty) at NYJ 35. 27-J.Jackson to NYJ 35 for no gain (8-E.Moore).
Patriots closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 19.
New England Patriots 25–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 7:54, Patriots +11.3% win probability on one snap.
11.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Adrian PhillipsPatriotsQ1 4:17(4:17) (No Huddle) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep right intended for 84-C.Davis INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Phillips at NE 27. 21-A.Phillips to NE 28 for 1 yard (81-T.Kroft).
6.5pts
J.C. JacksonPatriotsQ2 5:57(5:57) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right intended for 8-E.Moore INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Jackson at NE 13. 27-J.Jackson to NE 14 for 1 yard (8-E.Moore).
7.3pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Patriots won this one — no giveaways, against Jets at 4 giveaways.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 10 chunk plays, against Patriots at 6 chunk plays.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Patriots won this one — -0.05 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.32 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — -0.13 expected points per dropback, against Jets at -0.51 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Patriots160 of 169 plays carry both curves
(7:54) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep middle intended for 84-C.Davis INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Jackson (32-D.McCourty) at NYJ 35. 27-J.Jackson to NYJ 35 for no gain (8-E.Moore).
Swing −11.3 for JetsExpected points −4.36 for JetsThe model had Jets 26 points higher than the market did.play 15
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 7:54NE +11% win prob(7:54) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep middle intended for 84-C.Davis INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Jackson (32-D.McCourty) at NYJ 35. 27-J.Jackson to NYJ 35 for no gain (8-E.Moore).
2nd · 5:57NE +7% win prob(5:57) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right intended for 8-E.Moore INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Jackson at NE 13. 27-J.Jackson to NE 14 for 1 yard (8-E.Moore).
1st · 4:17NE +7% win prob(4:17) (No Huddle) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep right intended for 84-C.Davis INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Phillips at NE 27. 21-A.Phillips to NE 28 for 1 yard (81-T.Kroft).
1st · 11:13NYJ +6% win prob(11:13) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 28-J.White to NE 49 for no gain (57-C.Mosley). PENALTY on NYJ-50-S.Lawson, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at NE 49 - No Play.
1st · 9:33NE +6% win prob(9:33) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones sacked at NYJ 40 for -10 yards (20-M.Maye).
1st · 1:02NYJ +5% win prob(1:02) (Shotgun) 28-J.White left guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Nick Folk's 46-yard field goal with 4:50 left in the 1st put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st4:50Nick Folk·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.CardonaLead never changed again+33–0
2nd9:55Matt Ammendola·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap T.Hennessy+310–3
2nd0:17Nick Folk·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.Cardona+313–3
3rd10:38Damien Harris·26-yd TD run26-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide left+619–3
3rd1:13Nick Folk·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.Cardona+322–3
4th6:14Matt Ammendola·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap T.Hennessy+322–6
4th2:00Nick Folk·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.Cardona+325–6
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Patriotscategory by categoryJets
Patriots4–4Jets
260Total yards337
4.6Yards per play5.0
40%Success rate39%
25%Third-down rate38%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
6Explosive plays10
15First downs15
3Sacks taken4
0Turnovers4
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Patriots, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.51 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.05Patriots: −0.05 expected points added per play
−0.32Jets: −0.32 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.13Patriots: −0.13 expected points added per play
−0.51Jets: −0.51 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.05Patriots: +0.05 expected points added per play
−0.05Jets: −0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 57 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Jets’s 67 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 4, Jets 2.
NoteJets outgained Patriots 337-260 but lost the turnover battle 4-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYJ's pass rate over expected turned over: +3.4 pts in week 1 against −12.4 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
67 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points.
NYJ's sack or hit rate turned over: 22.2% in week 1 against 9.1% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -49 pts to 37 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.1 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.56× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Jets9.1%
inside their normal wobble · −4.2 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.71× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYJ's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -12.4 pts, 12.7 points below their season mean of 0.3 pts and 1.9 times their own 6.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
76Isaiah WynnT · Every snap100%59 snaps
69Shaquille MasonG · Every snap100%59 snaps
71Michael OnwenuG · Every snap100%59 snaps
60David AndrewsC · Every snap100%59 snaps
10Mac JonesQB · Every snap100%59 snaps
16Jakobi MeyersWR · Full-time88%52 snaps
15Nelson AgholorWR · Full-time86%51 snaps
85Hunter HenryTE · Full-time81%48 snaps
70Yasir DurantT · Heavy rotation54%32 snaps
84Kendrick BourneWR · Heavy rotation54%32 snaps
75Justin HerronT · Heavy rotation51%30 snaps
81Jonnu SmithTE · Rotational49%29 snaps
28James WhiteRB · Rotational49%29 snaps
37Damien HarrisRB · Rotational42%25 snaps
47Jakob JohnsonFB · Rotational27%16 snaps
80Gunner OlszewskiWR · Situational8%5 snaps
42J.J. TaylorRB · Situational8%5 snaps
Inactive · 6
Shaun WadeDBRonnie PerkinsDEKyle Van NoyOLBRhamondre StevensonRBTrenton BrownTDevin AsiasiTE
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Brian HoyerQB
New York Jets
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
62Greg Van RotenG · Every snap100%73 snaps
78Morgan MosesT · Every snap100%73 snaps
76George FantT · Every snap100%73 snaps
2Zach WilsonQB · Every snap100%73 snaps
75Alijah Vera-TuckerG · Every snap100%73 snaps
60Connor McGovernC · Every snap100%73 snaps
8Elijah MooreWR · Heavy rotation78%57 snaps
81Tyler KroftTE · Heavy rotation75%55 snaps
84Corey DavisWR · Heavy rotation73%53 snaps
86Ryan GriffinTE · Heavy rotation62%45 snaps
10Braxton BerriosWR · Heavy rotation59%43 snaps
32Michael CarterRB · Rotational45%33 snaps
25Ty JohnsonRB · Rotational45%33 snaps
16Jeff SmithWR · Rotational27%20 snaps
88Keelan ColeWR · Situational22%16 snaps
23Tevin ColemanRB · Situational10%7 snaps
85Trevon WescoTE · Situational3%2 snaps
87Daniel BrownTE · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Jason PinnockCBJonathan MarshallDTJamien SherwoodILBJosh AdamsRBLa'Mical PerineRBDenzel MimsWRJamison CrowderWR
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Z.Wilson pass−15% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(7:54) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep middle intended for 84-C.Davis INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Jackson (32-D.McCourty) at NYJ 35. 27-J.Jackson to NYJ 35 for no gain (8-E.Moore).
Q1 7:54 · Jets · 2nd & 2 at NYJ 16 · gained nothing · -4.36 EP · −14.8% win probability
158 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 72 yards from the NE 28 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
-0.14
Success rate
40%
Yards
596
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.3171%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29-0.0679%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24-0.3729%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.2269%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10-0.0310%
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR3——
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt12 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Jets 29
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Jets 8 to the Jets 16
Patriots3Jets0
Field goal7 plays, from the Jets 35 to the Jets 24
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerOnePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.3 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Jets 40 to the Patriots 47
Patriots9Jets0
Patriots10Jets0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Patriots 28 to the Jets 7
The period ended4 plays, from the Jets 38 to the Jets 41
2nd quarter43 plays
Patriots10Jets3
Field goal9 plays, from the Jets 47 to the Patriots 2
Punt5 plays
Intercepted4 plays, from the Jets 49 to the Patriots 28
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 14 to the Patriots 40
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 17 to the Jets 24
Patriots13Jets3
Field goal12 plays, from the Patriots 31 to the Jets 21
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Intercepted9 plays, from the Jets 22 to the Jets 42
Patriots19Jets3
Touchdown3 plays, from the Jets 35 to the Jets 26
No good13 plays, from the Jets 10 to the Patriots 26
Patriots22Jets3
Field goal8 plays, from the Patriots 43 to the Jets 13
The period ended4 plays, from the Jets 26 to the Jets 29
4th quarter52 plays
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Jets 46 to the Patriots 47
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 48 to the Patriots 49
Patriots22Jets6
Field goal12 plays, from the Jets 17 to the Patriots 16
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 21 to the Patriots 22
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Jets 18 to the Jets 26
Patriots25Jets6
Field goal8 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 2
The period ended11 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Patriots 32
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
