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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:27 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 19, 2021 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 2
It turned at Q1 7:54, 2nd and 2, on J.C. Jackson — 11.3 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New England Patriots 25–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 7:54, Patriots +11.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 7:54 · 2nd and 2
J.C. Jackson
Patriots
(7:54) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep middle intended for 84-C.Davis INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Jackson (32-D.McCourty) at NYJ 35. 27-J.Jackson to NYJ 35 for no gain (8-E.Moore).
11.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Patriots won this one — no giveaways, against Jets at 4 giveaways.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 10 chunk plays, against Patriots at 6 chunk plays.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Patriots won this one — -0.05 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.32 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — -0.13 expected points per dropback, against Jets at -0.51 expected points per dropback.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
(7:54) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep middle intended for 84-C.Davis INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Jackson (32-D.McCourty) at NYJ 35. 27-J.Jackson to NYJ 35 for no gain (8-E.Moore).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Nick Folk's 46-yard field goal with 4:50 left in the 1st put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Nick Folk46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.CardonaLead never changed again+33–08 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Patriotscategory by categoryJets
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Patriots, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.51 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 57 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Jets’s 67 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 4, Jets 2.
Jets outgained Patriots 337-260 but lost the turnover battle 4-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
NYJ's pass rate over expected turned over: +3.4 pts in week 1 against −12.4 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
67 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points. · −1.9σ from their own normal
NYJ's sack or hit rate turned over: 22.2% in week 1 against 9.1% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points. · −0.7σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -49 pts to 37 pts
Over Expected room →Patriots1.2 ptsright on their number · +7.4 vs their -6.2 pts, and they swing ±16.8 week to week (+0.44× that swing) · 57 snaps
Jets-12.4 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −12.7 vs their 0.3 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−1.87× that swing) · 67 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 5% to 96%
Tendencies room →Patriots51.1%right on their number · +0.9 vs their 50.2%, and they swing ±17.8 week to week (+0.05× that swing) · 45 early downs
Jets51.0%inside their normal wobble · −8.2 vs their 59.1%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (−0.66× that swing) · 51 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -49% to 109%
Fourth Down room →Patriots—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 30.0%.
Jets50.0%inside their normal wobble · +16.2 vs their 33.8%, and they swing ±26.8 week to week (+0.60× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 33%
Tendencies room →Patriots17.9%inside their normal wobble · +4.1 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.56× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Jets9.1%inside their normal wobble · −4.2 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.71× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NYJ's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -12.4 pts, 12.7 points below their season mean of 0.3 pts and 1.9 times their own 6.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
New York Jets
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · NYJ
19/33, 210 yds, 0 TD, 4 INT
-23.7 expected points added · -7.4% completion over expected
Passing · NE
22/30, 186 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-4.4 expected points added · +5.4% completion over expected
Receiving · NYJ
7/11 for 73 yds, 0 TD
33% of team targets · -5.9 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
James White banked 6.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James WhiteRB · Committee Back | 18.5 | +6.1 | 49% | 67% | 21% | 0% | 5 car, 20 yd, 1 TD · 6/6, 45 yd |
| Braxton BerriosWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.3 | −0.5 | 59% | 74% | 33% | 26% | 7/11, 73 yd |
| Damien HarrisRB · Bell Cow Back | 13.4 | −0.4 | 42% | 24% | 4% | 1% | 16 car, 62 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 2 yd |
| Michael CarterRB · Committee Back | 10.8 | +0.1 | 45% | 49% | 9% | 2% | 11 car, 59 yd · 2/3, 29 yd |
| Elijah MooreWR · Featured Receiver | 8.7 | −3.3 | 78% | 74% | 24% | 38% | 4/8, 47 yd |
| Jakobi MeyersWR · Featured Receiver | 7.8 | −1.3 | 88% | 97% | 21% | 41% | 4/6, 38 yd |
| Mac JonesQB · Starter QB | 7.4 | −2.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/30, 186 yd |
| Jonnu SmithTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.8 | −0.8 | 49% | 42% | 18% | 5% | 4/5, 28 yd |
| Hunter HenryTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.2 | −0.8 | 81% | 85% | 14% | 27% | 2/4, 42 yd |
| Nelson AgholorWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.1 | +0.6 | 86% | 97% | 11% | 14% | 3/3, 21 yd |
| Ty JohnsonRB | 5.0 | −2.8 | 45% | 44% | 0% | — | 12 car, 50 yd |
| Kendrick BourneWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.6 | −0.6 | 54% | 73% | 11% | 7% | 1 car, 16 yd · 2/3, 10 yd |
| Jeff SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.5 | +1.5 | 27% | 31% | 6% | 15% | 1/2, 35 yd |
| Ryan GriffinTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | +0.1 | 62% | 49% | 6% | 2% | 2/2, 10 yd |
| Corey DavisWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | −4.8 | 73% | 62% | 15% | 12% | 2/5, 8 yd |
| Tevin ColemanRB | 2.4 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Zach WilsonQB · Starter QB | 2.3 | −8.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/33, 210 yd, 4 INT · 3 car, 19 yd |
| Tyler KroftTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −1.3 | 75% | 62% | 6% | 5% | 1/2, 8 yd |
| J.J. TaylorRB | 0.3 | −1.1 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Matt SlaterWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Gunner OlszewskiWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(7:54) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep middle intended for 84-C.Davis INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Jackson (32-D.McCourty) at NYJ 35. 27-J.Jackson to NYJ 35 for no gain (8-E.Moore).
Q1 7:54 · Jets · 2nd & 2 at NYJ 16 · gained nothing · -4.36 EP · −14.8% win probability
158 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 169 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 72 yards from the NE 28 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Patriots3
Jets0Patriots9Jets0Patriots10Jets0Patriots10Jets3Patriots13Jets3Patriots19Jets3Patriots22Jets3Patriots22Jets6Patriots25Jets6Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Patriots at Jets, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 22/30 | 186 | 0 | 0 | 3 | −4.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Harris | 16 | 62 | 3.9 | 1 | −0.2 |
| James White | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 1 | +1.0 |
| Kendrick Bourne |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James White | 6 | 6 | 45 | 0 | 21% | +2.4 |
| Hunter Henry | 2 | 4 | 42 | 0 | 14% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Whaun Bentley | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Devin McCourty | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Dont'a Hightower |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 19/33 | 210 | 0 | 4 | 4 | −23.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_02_NE_NYJ
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Patriots closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 19.
Total closed 43; the game landed 31 — under by 12.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 1 |
| 16 |
| 16.0 |
| 0 |
| +2.0 |
| J.J. Taylor | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | −1.5 |
| +1.7 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 4 | 6 | 38 | 0 | 21% | −0.2 |
| Jonnu Smith | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 18% | −0.2 |
| Nelson Agholor | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 11% | +0.9 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 11% | −0.4 |
| Damien Harris | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jonathan Jones | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Joejuan Williams | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Lawrence Guy | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Mills | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| J.C. Jackson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Joshua Uche | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Dugger | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 11 | 59 | 5.4 | 0 | +1.5 |
| Ty Johnson | 12 | 50 | 4.2 | 0 | −2.5 |
| Tevin Coleman | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Zach Wilson | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 | +3.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braxton Berrios | 7 | 11 | 73 | 0 | 33% | −5.9 |
| Elijah Moore | 4 | 8 | 47 | 0 | 24% | −5.3 |
| Jeff Smith | 1 | 2 | 35 | 0 | 6% | +2.3 |
| Michael Carter | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 9% | +1.6 |
| Ryan Griffin | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 6% | +0.1 |
| Corey Davis | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 15% | −10.3 |
| Tyler Kroft | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 6% | −0.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Carter | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Mosley | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Marcus Maye | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Quincy Williams | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryce Hall | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Colbert | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javelin Guidry | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Franklin-Myers | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaq Lawson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
