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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:57 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 19, 2021 · Bank of America Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 2
It turned at Q3 1:42, 1st and 10, on Malcolm Roach — 8.8 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 1:42 · 1st and 10
Malcolm Roach
Saints
(1:42) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 30-C.Hubbard INTERCEPTED by 97-M.Roach [26-P.Williams] at CAR 23. 97-M.Roach to CAR 18 for 5 yards (61-M.Paradis; 65-D.Daley).
Carolina Panthers 26–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 1:42, Saints +8.8% win probability on one snap.
8.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Every snap
Panthers won this one — +0.07 expected points per snap, against Saints at -0.53 expected points per snap.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Panthers won this one — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Saints at 26% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Panthers won this one — 8 of 15 on third down, against Saints at 2 of 11 on third down.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Panthers won this one — +0.27 expected points per dropback, against Saints at -0.47 expected points per dropback.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
(1:42) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 30-C.Hubbard INTERCEPTED by 97-M.Roach [26-P.Williams] at CAR 23. 97-M.Roach to CAR 18 for 5 yards (61-M.Paradis; 65-D.Daley).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Brandon Zylstra's 20-yard touchdown catch with 12:07 left in the 1st put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Brandon Zylstra20-yd TD catch20-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam DarnoldLead never changed again+70–76 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Saintscategory by categoryPanthers
Panthers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — first downs.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.69 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 42 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Panthers’s 73 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Saints 1, Panthers 4.
Panthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.53.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CAR's sack or hit rate, 34.5%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 5.9 points clear of the next team along.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.1 points.
NO's early-down pass rate turned over: 37.0% in week 1 against 62.1% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
29 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Saints-9.5 ptsright on their number · −3.2 vs their -6.3 pts, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.44× that swing) · 42 snaps
Panthers7.6 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +9.0 vs their -1.3 pts, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+1.37× that swing) · 73 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 21% to 82%
Tendencies room →Saints62.1%leaned — passed early · +11.7 vs their 50.4%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (+1.01× that swing) · 29 early downs
Panthers53.4%right on their number · −3.3 vs their 56.7%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 58 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32% to 99%
Fourth Down room →Saints33.3%right on their number · +0.5 vs their 32.8%, and they swing ±23.2 week to week (+0.02× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Panthers0.0%leaned — took the kick · −33.4 vs their 33.4%, and they swing ±25.6 week to week (−1.31× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 39%
Tendencies room →Saints7.3%leaned — stayed blocked · −10.1 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−1.57× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Panthers34.5%off script — got home · +18.7 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (+2.05× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
CAR's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 34.5%, 18.7 points above their season mean of 15.8% and 2.1 times their own 9.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · CAR
26/38, 305 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
10.9 expected points added · +2.8% completion over expected
Passing · NO
11/22, 111 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-18.6 expected points added · -10.6% completion over expected
Receiving · CAR
5/6 for 65 yds, 0 TD
17% of team targets · 7.5 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Brandon Zylstra banked 7.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffreyRB · Bell Cow Back | 24.7 | −1.8 | 71% | 66% | 17% | 5% | 24 car, 72 yd, 1 TD · 5/6, 65 yd |
| D.J. MooreWR · Alpha Receiver | 21.9 | +0.8 | 88% | 90% | 31% | 32% | 8/11, 79 yd, 1 TD |
| Sam DarnoldQB · Starter QB | 18.9 | −1.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 26/38, 305 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, 7 yd |
| Brandon ZylstraWR · Rotational Receiver | 13.4 | +7.5 | 18% | 20% | 8% | 11% | 3/3, 44 yd, 1 TD |
| Dan ArnoldTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.5 | +1.0 | 29% | 37% | 11% | 18% | 3/4, 55 yd |
| Jameis WinstonQB · Starter QB | 8.3 | −0.5 | 95% | — | 0% | — | 11/22, 111 yd, 2 INT · 3 car, 19 yd, 1 TD |
| Alvin KamaraRB · Committee Back | 7.0 | −8.8 | 84% | 86% | 29% | 4% | 8 car, 5 yd · 4/6, 25 yd |
| Robbie ChosenWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.8 | −6.4 | 74% | 83% | 17% | 36% | 3/6, 38 yd |
| Terrace MarshallWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.7 | +0.6 | 51% | 56% | 8% | 0% | 3/3, 17 yd |
| Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | +0.4 | 55% | 52% | 10% | 23% | 1/2, 27 yd |
| Juwan JohnsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | −1.4 | 41% | 48% | 14% | 37% | 1/3, 23 yd |
| Marquez CallawayWR · Featured Receiver | 2.8 | −1.9 | 73% | 76% | 19% | 16% | 2/4, 8 yd |
| Chris HoganWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | −0.7 | 36% | 21% | 14% | 1% | 1/3, 16 yd |
| Deonte HartyWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −2.1 | 48% | 59% | 10% | 23% | 1 car, 1 yd · 1/2, 9 yd |
| Ian ThomasTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −1.5 | 68% | 56% | 6% | 0% | 1/2, 7 yd |
| Taysom HillQB | 1.6 | −0.5 | 23% | — | 0% | — | 2 car, 16 yd |
| Ty MontgomeryWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −0.8 | 32% | 28% | 5% | 1% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| Chuba HubbardRB | 1.0 | −3.8 | 25% | 24% | 3% | 0% | 8 car, 10 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Tony JonesRB | 0.7 | −1.0 | 27% | 14% | 0% | — | 3 car, 7 yd |
| Giovanni RicciTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 20% | 7% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Alex EricksonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 11% | 10% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Dwayne WashingtonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Alex ArmahRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(14:21) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 22-C.McCaffrey to NO 40 for 32 yards (43-M.Williams).
Q1 14:21 · Panthers · 2nd & 7 at CAR 28 · gained 32 · +2.58 EP · +7.6% win probability
151 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 166 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 75 yards from the CAR 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Saints0
Panthers6Saints0Panthers7Saints0Panthers10Saints0Panthers16Saints0Panthers17Saints6Panthers17Saints7Panthers17Saints7Panthers23Saints7Panthers26Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Saints at Panthers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 11/22 | 111 | 0 | 2 | 4 | −18.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 1 | +4.0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 | +1.4 |
| Tony Jones | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 | −2.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 1 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 10% | −0.9 |
| Alvin Kamara | 4 | 6 | 25 | 0 | 29% | −2.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demario Davis | 8 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Marcus Williams | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zack Baun | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Paulson Adebo |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 26/38 | 305 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +10.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_02_NO_CAR
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Saints closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 45; the game landed 33 — under by 12.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Alvin Kamara | 8 | 5 | 0.6 | 0 | −6.0 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 14% | −2.2 |
| Chris Hogan | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 14% | −1.1 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 10% | −1.8 |
| Marquez Callaway | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 19% | −1.9 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5% | +0.3 |
| 6 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Cameron Jordan | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Jenkins | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carl Granderson | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Payton Turner | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| P.J. Williams | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 |
| 72 |
| 3.0 |
| 1 |
| −3.1 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 8 | 10 | 1.3 | 0 | −3.3 |
| Sam Darnold | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.J. Moore | 8 | 11 | 79 | 1 | 31% | +5.4 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 5 | 6 | 65 | 0 | 17% | +7.5 |
| Dan Arnold | 3 | 4 | 55 | 0 | 11% | +3.4 |
| Brandon Zylstra | 3 | 3 | 44 | 1 | 8% | +3.4 |
| Robbie Chosen | 3 | 6 | 38 | 0 | 17% | +1.3 |
| Terrace Marshall | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 8% | +1.3 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 6% | −0.2 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −6.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juston Burris | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Brian Burns | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaq Thompson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Haason Reddick | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Sean Chandler | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Chinn | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DaQuan Jones | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Donte Jackson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Stanford | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashaan Melvin | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
