2021 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 19, 2021 · Bank of America Stadium

New Orleans Saints

Carolina PanthersWinner

NO -3 upsetU 45 ✓Saints closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Carolina Panthers 26–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 1:42, NO +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 1:42NO — CAR CAR ball · 1st & 10CAR 96%

(1:42) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 30-C.Hubbard INTERCEPTED by 97-M.Roach [26-P.Williams] at CAR 23. 97-M.Roach to CAR 18 for 5 yards (61-M.Paradis; 65-D.Daley).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 1:42NO +9% win prob(1:42) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 30-C.Hubbard INTERCEPTED by 97-M.Roach [26-P.Williams] at CAR 23. 97-M.Roach to CAR 18 for 5 yards (61-M.Paradis; 65-D.Daley).
Q1 · 14:21CAR +9% win prob(14:21) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 22-C.McCaffrey to NO 40 for 32 yards (43-M.Williams).
Q4 · 14:43CAR +6% win prob(14:43) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston scrambles up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 12:07CAR +6% win prob(12:07) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 16-B.Zylstra for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Saints	Panthers
Offensive plays	42	73
Total yards	129	383 (edge)
Yards per play	3.1	5.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.53	0.07 (edge)
Success rate	26%	45% (edge)
Dropback rate	69%	56%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.47	0.27 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.69	-0.20 (edge)
Third downs	2/11	8/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	5 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	5	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	2 (edge)
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

Panthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.53.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

Sam DarnoldQB

26/38, 305 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

10.9 expected points added · +2.8% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Jameis WinstonQB

11/22, 111 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-18.6 expected points added · -10.6% completion over expected

Rushing · CAR

Christian McCaffreyRB

24 att, 72 yds, 1 TD

-3.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Chuba HubbardRB

8 att, 10 yds, 0 TD

-3.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

D.J. MooreWR

8/11 for 79 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · 5.4 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

Christian McCaffreyRB

5/6 for 65 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 7.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CAR	CAR 25	7	75	3:00	Touchdown
2	NO	NO 35	5	9	2:04	Punt
3	CAR	CAR 7	7	35	3:08	Punt
4	NO	NO 10	4	6	1:40	Punt
5	CAR	CAR 34	15	74	8:57	Turnover on downs
6	NO	NO 25	7	19	3:46	Punt
7	CAR	CAR 28	11	68	5:30	Touchdown
8	NO	NO 43	7	31	1:32	Interception
9	CAR	CAR 23	3	23	0:23	End of half
10	NO	NO 25	5	0	1:38	Punt
11	CAR	CAR 23	10	30	4:55	Turnover on downs
12	NO	CAR 38	5	8	3:02	Turnover on downs
13	CAR	CAR 40	4	9	1:26	Punt
14	NO	NO 12	4	9	2:17	Punt
15	CAR	CAR 25	1	0	0:08	Interception
16	NO	CAR 18	6	18	1:57	Touchdown
17	CAR	CAR 25	9	19	4:55	Punt
18	NO	NO 10	4	6	1:00	Fumble
19	CAR	CAR 47	8	38	2:49	Touchdown
20	NO	NO 32	5	0	1:25	Turnover on downs
21	CAR	NO 32	4	8	1:07	Turnover on downs
22	NO	NO 33	3	23	0:45	Interception
23	CAR	CAR 14	6	4	2:14	Punt
24	NO	NO 30	1	0	0:22	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 75 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jameis Winston	11/22	111	0	2	4	-18.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jameis Winston	3	19	6.3	1	4.0
Taysom Hill	2	16	8.0	0	1.4
Tony Jones	3	7	2.3	0	-2.3
Alvin Kamara	8	5	0.6	0	-6.0
Deonte Harty	1	1	1.0	0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Lil'Jordan Humphrey	1	2	27	10%	-0.9
Alvin Kamara	4	6	25	29%	-2.0
Juwan Johnson	1	3	23	14%	-2.2
Chris Hogan	1	3	16	14%	-1.1
Deonte Harty	1	2	9	10%	-1.8
Marquez Callaway	2	4	8	19%	-1.9
Ty Montgomery	1	1	3	5%	0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Demario Davis	8	4	0.0	1
Marcus Williams	4	4	0.0	1
Zack Baun	3	4	0.0	0
Paulson Adebo	6	1	0.0	0
Cameron Jordan	2	5	0.0	0
Malcolm Jenkins	5	1	0.0	0
Carl Granderson	2	3	0.0	0
Payton Turner	4	1	1.0	0
Ty Montgomery	2	1	0.0	0
P.J. Williams	2	1	0.0	0

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	26/38	305	2	1	2	10.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	24	72	3.0	1	-3.1
Chuba Hubbard	8	10	1.3	0	-3.3
Sam Darnold	1	7	7.0	0	0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
D.J. Moore	8	11	79	1	31%	5.4
Christian McCaffrey	5	6	65	0	17%	7.5
Dan Arnold	3	4	55	0	11%	3.4
Brandon Zylstra	3	3	44	1	8%	3.4
Robbie Chosen	3	6	38	0	17%	1.3
Terrace Marshall	3	3	17	0	8%	1.3
Ian Thomas	1	2	7	0	6%	-0.2
Chuba Hubbard	0	1	0	0	3%	-6.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Juston Burris	4	1	0.0	1	1
Brian Burns	3	1	1.0	0	0
Shaq Thompson	2	2	0.0	0	0
Haason Reddick	1	2	1.5	0	0
Sean Chandler	2	1	0.0	0	0
Jeremy Chinn	3	0	0.0	0	0
DaQuan Jones	1	2	1.0	0	0
Donte Jackson	2	0	0.0	0	0
Julian Stanford	1	1	0.0	0	0
Rashaan Melvin	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -3
Closing total: 45
NO moneyline: -145
CAR moneyline: +131

Saints closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 45; the game landed 33 — under by 12.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 83°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: NO 7 days · CAR 7 days
Coaches: Sean Payton vs Matt Rhule

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.