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New York Giants 29 at Washington Commanders 30. Final.
Commanders -4 no coverO 42 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 2
Washington Commanders 30, Giants 29 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 2:22, 2nd and 7, on James Bradberry — 40.7 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:22 · 2nd and 7
James Bradberry
Giants
(2:22) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right intended for 17-T.McLaurin INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Bradberry at WAS 25. 24-J.Bradberry to WAS 20 for 5 yards (17-T.McLaurin).
Commanders closed -4, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Washington Commanders 30–29 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:22, Giants +40.7% win probability on one snap.
40.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
J.D. McKissicCommandersQ4 4:50(4:50) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep right to 41-J.McKissic pushed ob at NYG 19 for 56 yards (29-X.McKinney).
23.3pts
Dustin HopkinsCommandersQ4 0:00(:00) 3-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
39.8pts
What separated them
Red zone
Commanders won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Giants at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Commanders won this one — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Giants at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Giants owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Commanders at 1 giveaway.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Commanders won this one — +0.32 expected points per carry, against Giants at +0.13 expected points per carry.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 13 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Giants184 of 199 plays carry both curves
(2:22) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right intended for 17-T.McLaurin INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Bradberry at WAS 25. 24-J.Bradberry to WAS 20 for 5 yards (17-T.McLaurin).
Swing −40.7 for CommandersExpected points −4.58 for CommandersModel and market agree here.play 175
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:22NYG +41% win prob(2:22) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right intended for 17-T.McLaurin INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Bradberry at WAS 25. 24-J.Bradberry to WAS 20 for 5 yards (17-T.McLaurin).
4th · 0:00WAS +40% win prob(:00) 3-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
4th · 4:50WAS +23% win prob(4:50) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep right to 41-J.McKissic pushed ob at NYG 19 for 56 yards (29-X.McKinney).
3rd · 4:48WAS +19% win prob(4:48) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep left to 86-D.Slayton for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:20NYG +18% win prob(14:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke sacked at WAS 14 for -16 yards (51-A.Ojulari).
4th · 0:28WAS +17% win prob(:28) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 13-A.Humphries pushed ob at NYG 36 for 7 yards (30-D.Holmes).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Dustin Hopkins's 43-yard field goal with 0:00 left in the 4th put Washington Commanders ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
3rd9:12Graham Gano·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap C.Kreiter+313–14
3rd4:48Darius Slayton·33-yd TD catch33-yard touchdown catchfrom Daniel Jonesfrom Daniel Jones+720–14
3rd1:35Dustin Hopkins·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap C.Cheeseman+320–17
4th13:39Graham Gano·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap C.Kreiter+323–17
4th8:50Dustin Hopkins·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap C.Cheeseman+323–20
4th4:55Graham Gano·55-yd field goal55-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap C.Kreiter+326–20
4th4:41Ricky Seals-Jones·19-yd TD catch19-yard touchdown catchfrom Taylor Heinickefrom Taylor Heinicke+726–27
4th2:05Graham Gano·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap C.Kreiter+329–27
4th0:00Dustin Hopkins·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap C.CheesemanLead never changed again+329–30
13 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Giantscategory by categoryCommanders
Giants4–5Commanders
392Total yards407
6.2Yards per play6.0
43%Success rate50%
33%Third-down rate31%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
7Explosive plays6
17First downs21
4Sacks taken1
0Turnovers1
The read
Commanders ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Giants, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.08Giants: +0.08 expected points added per play
+0.10Commanders: +0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.05Giants: +0.05 expected points added per play
+0.02Commanders: +0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.13Giants: +0.13 expected points added per play
+0.32Commanders: +0.32 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 63 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Commanders’s 68 at 72%. Red-zone trips: Giants 4, Commanders 4.
NoteCommanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs 0.08.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
WAS's early-down pass rate, 75.5%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 5.3 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.2-swing turn from week 1.
53 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.8 points.
WAS's pass rate over expected turned over: −11.3 pts in week 1 against +7.5 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
68 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 26 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.6 vs their 11.6%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−1.13× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Commanders18.4%
right on their number · +3.0 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.42× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteWAS's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 75.5%, 21.2 points above their season mean of 54.3% and 1.8 times their own 11.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Dustin Hopkins+44% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:00) 3-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
Q4 0:00 · Commanders · 1st & 10 at NYG 25 · gained nothing · +0.60 EP · +44.5% win probability
182 snaps placed · 17 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 199 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 199 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
13 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 90 yards from the WAS 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
199 of 199 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
199
EPA per play
+0.13
Success rate
45%
Yards
798
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR57+0.0172%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46+0.1467%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.2542%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.4450%
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Giants0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
199 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
199 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 23 to the Commanders 30
Giants6Commanders0
Giants7Commanders0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Giants 21 to the Commanders 6
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Commanders 36
Punt8 plays, from the Giants 24 to the Commanders 27
The period ended7 plays, from the Commanders 10 to the Giants 43
2nd quarter52 plays
Giants7Commanders6
Giants7Commanders7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Giants 39 to the Giants 11
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 32
Punt6 plays
Giants10Commanders7
Field goal12 plays, from the Giants 22 to the Commanders 5
Giants10Commanders13
Giants10Commanders14
Touchdown18 plays, from the Commanders 16 to the Giants 2
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter43 plays
Giants13Commanders14
Field goal12 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Commanders 29
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 10 to the Commanders 18
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Giants19Commanders14
Giants20Commanders14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Giants 35 to the Commanders 33
Giants20Commanders17
Field goal10 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Giants 22
The period ended6 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Commanders 41
4th quarter65 plays
Giants23Commanders17
Field goal3 plays, from the Commanders 36 to the Commanders 34
Giants23Commanders20
Field goal12 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Giants 19
Giants26Commanders20
Field goal11 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Commanders 37
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.8 seconds
Giants26Commanders26
Giants26Commanders27
Touchdown4 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Giants 19
Punt7 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 39
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Commanders 8 to the Commanders 22
Giants29Commanders27
Field goal6 plays, from the Commanders 20 to the Commanders 17
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linebackers and eight backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Giants29Commanders30
Field goal17 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Giants 25
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
