2021 Week 2 · Thu, Sep 16, 2021 · FedExField

New York Giants

Washington CommandersWinner

WAS -4 no coverO 42 ✓Commanders closed -4, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Washington Commanders 30–29 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:22, NYG +41% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 2:22NYG — WAS WAS ball · 2nd & 7WAS 74%

(2:22) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right intended for 17-T.McLaurin INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Bradberry at WAS 25. 24-J.Bradberry to WAS 20 for 5 yards (17-T.McLaurin).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 2:22NYG +41% win prob(2:22) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right intended for 17-T.McLaurin INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Bradberry at WAS 25. 24-J.Bradberry to WAS 20 for 5 yards (17-T.McLaurin).
Q4 · 0:00WAS +40% win prob(:00) 3-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
Q4 · 4:50WAS +23% win prob(4:50) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep right to 41-J.McKissic pushed ob at NYG 19 for 56 yards (29-X.McKinney).
Q3 · 4:48WAS +19% win prob(4:48) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep left to 86-D.Slayton for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Giants	Commanders
Offensive plays	63	68
Total yards	392	407 (edge)
Yards per play	6.2 (edge)	6.0
Expected points added / play	0.08	0.10 (edge)
Success rate	43%	50% (edge)
Dropback rate	60%	72%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.05 (edge)	0.02
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.13	0.32 (edge)
Third downs	4/12 (edge)	4/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	17	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs 0.08.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · WAS

Taylor HeinickeQB

34/46, 336 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

0.9 expected points added · +7.7% completion over expected

Passing · NYG

Daniel JonesQB

22/32, 249 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

2.8 expected points added · +4.4% completion over expected

Rushing · NYG

Daniel JonesQB

9 att, 95 yds, 1 TD

5.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Antonio GibsonRB

13 att, 69 yds, 0 TD

0.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · WAS

Terry McLaurinWR

11/14 for 107 yds, 1 TD

32% of team targets · 0.8 expected points added

Receiving · NYG

Sterling ShepardWR

9/10 for 94 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · 5.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	WAS	WAS 23	5	-9	1:30	Punt
2	NYG	NYG 21	12	71	5:55	Touchdown
3	WAS	WAS 30	5	6	1:38	Punt
4	NYG	NYG 24	6	43	2:40	Punt
5	WAS	WAS 10	14	90	7:01	Touchdown
6	NYG	NYG 25	5	0	1:29	Punt
7	WAS	WAS 33	5	15	1:29	Punt
8	NYG	NYG 22	10	74	4:09	Turnover on downs
9	WAS	WAS 16	14	84	3:48	Touchdown
10	NYG	NYG 24	2	0	0:21	End of half
11	NYG	NYG 25	10	36	5:53	Turnover on downs
12	WAS	WAS 10	5	8	1:36	Punt
13	NYG	NYG 35	8	57	2:50	Touchdown
14	WAS	WAS 25	8	33	3:11	Turnover on downs
15	NYG	NYG 25	7	46	2:55	Turnover on downs
16	WAS	WAS 25	12	51	4:49	Turnover on downs
17	NYG	NYG 25	9	48	3:56	Turnover on downs
18	WAS	WAS 25	4	75	0:17	Touchdown
19	NYG	NYG 25	7	14	1:20	Punt
20	WAS	WAS 8	3	14	0:57	Interception
21	NYG	WAS 20	4	3	0:16	Turnover on downs
22	WAS	WAS 25	12	40	2:00	Turnover on downs

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 90 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Giants

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Daniel Jones	22/32	249	1	0	4	2.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Daniel Jones	9	95	10.6	1	5.4
Saquon Barkley	13	57	4.4	0	-2.5
Devontae Booker	2	9	4.5	0	-0.4
C.J. Board	1	6	6.0	0	0.3
Elijhaa Penny	2	5	2.5	0	0.9
Sterling Shepard	1	-9	-9.0	0	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Sterling Shepard	9	10	94	0	31%	5.7
Darius Slayton	3	6	54	1	19%	2.7
Kenny Golladay	3	8	38	0	25%	-0.2
Kyle Rudolph	2	2	25	0	6%	2.3
Kaden Smith	2	2	24	0	6%	1.2
Saquon Barkley	2	3	12	0	9%	-0.3
Devontae Booker	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Blake Martinez	5	7	0	0
Logan Ryan	5	2	0	0
James Bradberry	6	1	1	1
Jabrill Peppers	3	3	0	1
Darnay Holmes	5	1	0	0
Leonard Williams	3	2	0	0
Adoree' Jackson	3	1	0	2
Austin Johnson	3	1	0	0
Lorenzo Carter	1	2	0	0
Tae Crowder	2	1	0	0

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Taylor Heinicke	34/46	336	2	1	1	0.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Antonio Gibson	13	69	5.3	0	0.2
J.D. McKissic	4	10	2.5	1	4.1
Taylor Heinicke	4	6	1.5	0	2.1
DeAndre Carter	1	2	2.0	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Terry McLaurin	11	14	107	1	32%	0.8
J.D. McKissic	5	6	83	0	14%	3.1
Logan Thomas	5	7	45	0	16%	-1.0
Adam Humphries	7	8	44	0	18%	0.2
Dyami Brown	3	6	34	0	14%	0.3
Ricky Seals-Jones	1	1	19	1	2%	2.5
Antonio Gibson	2	2	4	0	5%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kendall Fuller	7	1	1.0	1
Landon Collins	6	1	0.0	0
Jonathan Allen	5	1	2.0	0
Cole Holcomb	4	2	0.0	0
Jamin Davis	3	1	0.0	0
William Jackson	3	0	0.0	2
Montez Sweat	3	0	1.0	0
Kamren Curl	2	1	0.0	0
Benjamin St-Juste	3	0	0.0	1
Jon Bostic	2	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: WAS -4
Closing total: 42
NYG moneyline: +176
WAS moneyline: -198

Commanders closed -4, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 42; the game landed 59 — over by 17.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FedExField
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 71°F, wind 0 mph
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: NYG 4 days · WAS 4 days
Coaches: Joe Judge vs Ron Rivera

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.