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2021 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 19, 2021 · Lincoln Financial Field
Final
49ersSan Francisco17
BY 6final margin
EaglesPhiladelphia11
San Francisco 49ers 17 at Philadelphia Eagles 11. Final.
49ers -3 ✓U 49 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 2
San Francisco 49ers 17, Eagles 11 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 7:12, 1st and 10, on Quez Watkins — 14.5 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 7:12 · 1st and 10
Quez Watkins
Eagles
(7:12) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 16-Q.Watkins to SF 6 for 91 yards (38-D.Lenoir; 3-J.Tartt).
49ers closed -3 and covered, winning by 6.
San Francisco 49ers 17–11. Biggest swing: Q2 7:12, Eagles +14.5% win probability on one snap.
14.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Quez WatkinsEaglesQ1 0:39(:39) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 16-Q.Watkins pushed ob at SF 36 for 26 yards (1-J.Ward; 3-J.Tartt). Penalty on SF-24-K.Williams, Illegal Contact, declined.
8.0pts
Deebo Samuel49ersQ2 0:25(:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 19-D.Samuel pushed ob at PHI 11 for 40 yards (2-D.Slay).
14.5pts
What separated them
Red zone
49ers won this one — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Eagles at 1 touchdown on 2 trips.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 6 chunk plays, against 49ers at 3 chunk plays.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
49ers won this one — -0.02 expected points per carry, against Eagles at -0.20 expected points per carry.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against 49ers at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Eagles.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on 49ers153 of 162 plays carry both curves
(7:12) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 16-Q.Watkins to SF 6 for 91 yards (38-D.Lenoir; 3-J.Tartt).
Swing +14.5 for EaglesExpected points +5.66 for EaglesThe model had Eagles 15 points higher than the market did.play 58
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 7:12PHI +14% win prob(7:12) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 16-Q.Watkins to SF 6 for 91 yards (38-D.Lenoir; 3-J.Tartt).
2nd · 0:25PHI +14% win prob(:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 19-D.Samuel pushed ob at PHI 11 for 40 yards (2-D.Slay).
1st · 0:39PHI +8% win prob(:39) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 16-Q.Watkins pushed ob at SF 36 for 26 yards (1-J.Ward; 3-J.Tartt). Penalty on SF-24-K.Williams, Illegal Contact, declined.
2nd · 0:17PHI +8% win prob(:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 15-J.Jennings for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 4:28SF +8% win prob(4:28) (Shotgun) 84-G.Ward pass incomplete short right to 1-J.Hurts.
2nd · 10:43PHI +7% win prob(10:43) 10-J.Garoppolo up the middle to SF 48 for 2 yards (98-H.Ridgeway).
2nd · 14:16
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jauan Jennings's 11-yard touchdown catch with 0:17 left in the 2nd put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st4:49Jake Elliott·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder A.Siposs · snap R.Lovato+30–3
2nd0:17Jauan Jennings·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Jimmy Garoppolofrom Jimmy GaroppoloLead never changed again+77–3
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to 49ers, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.1049ers: +0.10 expected points added per play
−0.01Eagles: −0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.2149ers: +0.21 expected points added per play
+0.13Eagles: +0.13 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.0249ers: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.20Eagles: −0.20 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 65 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Eagles’s 55 at 56%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 2, Eagles 2.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PHI's sack or hit rate turned over: 23.1% in week 1 against 6.1% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 22 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.1 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.91× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Eagles6.1%
inside their normal wobble · −6.5 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.87× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was SF's sack or hit rate, 9.7% against a season mean of 15.8% — and SF swings 6.7 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Hurts pass+11% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(7:12) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 16-Q.Watkins to SF 6 for 91 yards (38-D.Lenoir; 3-J.Tartt).
Q2 7:12 · Eagles · 1st & 10 at PHI 3 · gained 91 · +5.66 EP · +11.0% win probability
151 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 162 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 97 yards from the SF 3 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
162 of 162 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
162
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
41%
Yards
636
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.0954%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR22-0.1850%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR19+0.4279%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR17+0.0318%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.2222%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.2020%
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
49ers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 31
Punt7 plays, from the Eagles 32 to midfield
Punt4 plays
49ers0Eagles3
Field goal11 plays, from the Eagles 21 to the 49ers 26
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 34
The period ended9 plays, from the Eagles 17 to the 49ers 36
2nd quarter41 plays
No good2 plays
Punt13 plays, from the 49ers 37 to the Eagles 38
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Eagles 3 to the 49ers 1
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
49ers6Eagles3
49ers7Eagles3
Touchdown15 plays, from the 49ers 3 to the Eagles 11
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter33 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 32
Punt8 plays, from the 49ers 26 to the Eagles 49
Punt12 plays, from the Eagles 7 to the 49ers 40
The period ended8 plays, from the 49ers 8 to the 49ers 41
4th quarter46 plays
49ers13Eagles3
49ers14Eagles3
Touchdown12 plays, from the 49ers 41 to the Eagles 1
Punt7 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Eagles 38
49ers17Eagles3
Field goal12 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the Eagles 27
49ers17Eagles9
49ers17Eagles11
Touchdown7 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the 49ers 1
The period ended8 plays, from the 49ers 14 to the 49ers 26
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
49ers -3
Closing total
49
49ers moneyline
-144
Eagles moneyline
+130
49ers closed -3 and covered, winning by 6.
Total closed 49; the game landed 28 — under by 21.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 77°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 9 mph out of the north; clear.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
49ers 7 days · Eagles 7 days
Coaches
Kyle Shanahan vs Nick Sirianni
SF +7% win prob
(14:16) 4-J.Elliott 47 yard field goal is BLOCKED (99-J.Kinlaw), Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs, recovered by PHI-88-D.Goedert at SF 35. 88-D.Goedert to SF 27 for 8 yards (45-D.Flannigan-Fowles).
3rd · 14:38SF +6% win prob(14:38) (No Huddle) 1-J.Hurts sacked at PHI 24 for -8 yards (97-N.Bosa). FUMBLES (97-N.Bosa) [97-N.Bosa], recovered by PHI-89-J.Stoll at PHI 25. 89-J.Stoll to PHI 23 for -2 yards (3-J.Tartt).
