For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Not startedThis page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 19, 2021 · Lincoln Financial Field
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 2
It turned at Q2 7:12, 1st and 10, on Quez Watkins — 14.5 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
San Francisco 49ers 17–11. Biggest swing: Q2 7:12, Eagles +14.5% win probability on one snap.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 7:12 · 1st and 10
Quez Watkins
Eagles
(7:12) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 16-Q.Watkins to SF 6 for 91 yards (38-D.Lenoir; 3-J.Tartt).
14.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
49ers won this one — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Eagles at 1 touchdown on 2 trips.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 6 chunk plays, against 49ers at 3 chunk plays.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
49ers won this one — -0.02 expected points per carry, against Eagles at -0.20 expected points per carry.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against 49ers at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Eagles.
(7:12) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 16-Q.Watkins to SF 6 for 91 yards (38-D.Lenoir; 3-J.Tartt).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jauan Jennings's 11-yard touchdown catch with 0:17 left in the 2nd put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Jauan Jennings11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Jimmy GaroppoloLead never changed again+77–35 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
49erscategory by categoryEagles
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to 49ers, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 65 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Eagles’s 55 at 56%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 2, Eagles 2.
49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
PHI's sack or hit rate turned over: 23.1% in week 1 against 6.1% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points. · −0.9σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 22 pts
Over Expected room →49ers-5.8 ptsright on their number · +0.8 vs their -6.6 pts, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.12× that swing) · 65 snaps
Eagles-2.7 ptsright on their number · +3.4 vs their -6.2 pts, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (+0.32× that swing) · 54 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 8% to 92%
Tendencies room →49ers49.0%right on their number · −0.4 vs their 49.4%, and they swing ±14.2 week to week (−0.03× that swing) · 51 early downs
Eagles53.7%right on their number · +3.7 vs their 50.0%, and they swing ±16.4 week to week (+0.23× that swing) · 41 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -44% to 104%
Fourth Down room →49ers25.0%right on their number · +1.7 vs their 23.3%, and they swing ±26.0 week to week (+0.06× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Eagles33.3%right on their number · −3.5 vs their 36.9%, and they swing ±25.9 week to week (−0.14× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 33%
Tendencies room →49ers9.7%inside their normal wobble · −6.1 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.91× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Eagles6.1%inside their normal wobble · −6.5 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.87× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Nothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was SF's sack or hit rate, 9.7% against a season mean of 15.8% — and SF swings 6.7 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 4
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · PHI
12/23, 190 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
0.7 expected points added · -5.6% completion over expected
Passing · SF
22/30, 189 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
6.5 expected points added · +0.1% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Quez Watkins banked 10.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 21.8 | −8.1 | 100% | — | 4% | 1% | 12/23, 190 yd · 10 car, 82 yd, 1 TD · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jimmy GaroppoloQB · Starter QB | 19.6 | +1.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/30, 189 yd, 1 TD · 11 car, 20 yd, 1 TD |
| Deebo SamuelWR · Alpha Receiver | 16.1 | +1.7 | 70% | 76% | 27% | 40% | 2 car, 8 yd · 6/8, 93 yd |
| Quez WatkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 13.7 | +10.0 | 50% | 42% | 8% | 17% | 2/2, 117 yd |
| Jamycal HastyRB · Receiving Back | 9.9 | −3.9 | 36% | 42% | 17% | 0% | 5 car, 38 yd · 4/5, 21 yd |
| Jauan JenningsWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.7 | +6.4 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Elijah MitchellRB · Committee Back | 7.3 | −5.9 | 61% | 48% | 7% | 0% | 17 car, 42 yd · 2/2, 11 yd |
| Kenneth GainwellRB · Receiving Back | 7.2 | −0.8 | 33% | 23% | 13% | 0% | 6 car, 14 yd · 2/3, 18 yd |
| Miles SandersRB · Committee Back | 6.9 | −5.5 | 67% | 61% | 8% | 2% | 13 car, 55 yd · 1/2, 4 yd |
| George KittleTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.7 | −0.1 | 100% | 91% | 13% | 0% | 4/4, 17 yd |
| Dallas GoedertTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | +1.4 | 66% | 48% | 8% | 2% | 2/2, 24 yd |
| Kyle JuszczykRB · Receiving Back | 3.7 | −1.6 | 59% | 42% | 10% | 8% | 1 car, 2 yd · 2/3, 15 yd |
| DeVonta SmithWR · Alpha Receiver | 3.6 | −11.3 | 84% | 74% | 29% | 50% | 2/7, 16 yd |
| Jalen ReagorWR · Featured Receiver | 2.5 | −6.9 | 72% | 65% | 21% | 27% | 2/5, 5 yd |
| Trent SherfieldWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −3.6 | 34% | 33% | 10% | 30% | 1/3, 9 yd |
| Zach ErtzTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −4.5 | 64% | 48% | 8% | 2% | 1/2, 6 yd |
| Brandon AiyukWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −1.2 | 54% | 55% | 7% | 22% | 1/2, 6 yd |
| Trey SermonRB | 0.8 | +0.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Jack StollTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Greg WardWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.9 | 36% | 29% | 0% | — | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Mohamed SanuWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.0 | 29% | 45% | 3% | 10% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Trenton CannonRB | -0.1 | −0.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(7:12) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 16-Q.Watkins to SF 6 for 91 yards (38-D.Lenoir; 3-J.Tartt).
Q2 7:12 · Eagles · 1st & 10 at PHI 3 · gained 91 · +5.66 EP · +11.0% win probability
151 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 162 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 97 yards from the SF 3 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
49ers0
Eagles349ers6Eagles349ers7Eagles349ers13Eagles349ers14Eagles349ers17Eagles349ers17Eagles949ers17Eagles11Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: 49ers at Eagles, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 22/30 | 189 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +6.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Mitchell | 17 | 42 | 2.5 | 0 | −6.2 |
| Jamycal Hasty | 5 | 38 | 7.6 | 0 | +1.9 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel | 6 | 8 | 93 | 0 | 27% | +4.1 |
| Jamycal Hasty | 4 | 5 | 21 | 0 | 17% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Warner | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jaquiski Tartt | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jimmie Ward |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 12/23 | 190 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +0.7 |
| Greg Ward | 0/1 | 0 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_02_SF_PHI
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -3 and covered, winning by 6.
Total closed 49; the game landed 28 — under by 21.0.
Conditions and crew
| 11 |
| 20 |
| 1.8 |
| 1 |
| +4.7 |
| Deebo Samuel | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Trey Sermon | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | +1.6 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Trenton Cannon | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| −0.9 |
| George Kittle | 4 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 13% | +0.1 |
| Jauan Jennings | 2 | 2 | 17 | 1 | 7% | +3.5 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 10% | +0.4 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 7% | +0.3 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 10% | −0.2 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7% | +0.2 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.1 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Azeez Al-Shaair | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deommodore Lenoir | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Kentavius Street | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Jones | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bosa | 2 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Samson Ebukam | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Norman | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| −2.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 10 | 82 | 8.2 | 1 | +6.0 |
| Miles Sanders | 13 | 55 | 4.2 | 0 | −3.5 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quez Watkins | 2 | 2 | 117 | 0 | 8% | +8.5 |
| Dallas Goedert | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 8% | +2.6 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 13% | +1.5 |
| DeVonta Smith | 2 | 7 | 16 | 0 | 29% | −3.7 |
| Zach Ertz | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 8% | +1.1 |
| Jalen Reagor | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 21% | −3.9 |
| Miles Sanders | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8% | −0.6 |
| Jalen Hurts | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −2.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Singleton | 5 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Harris | 2 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Wilson | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Genard Avery | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Hargrave | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Edwards | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fletcher Cox | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derek Barnett | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Epps | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| K'Von Wallace | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
