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DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
Tennessee Titans 33 at Seattle Seahawks 30. Final.
Seahawks -6.5 upsetO 53.5 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 2
Tennessee Titans 33, Seahawks 30 — on the last possessions.
It turned at OT 8:25, 4th and 15 — 29.3 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 8:25 · 4th and 15
Unnamed on the sheet
Titans
(8:25) 6-B.Kern punts 53 yards to SEA 13, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 18-F.Swain.
29.3
15.7 mph wind
Seahawks closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Tennessee Titans 33–30 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 8:25, Titans +29.3% win probability on one snap. Played in 15.7 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Russell WilsonTitansQ4 0:17(:17) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 81-G.Everett [48-B.Dupree]. SEA-72-B.Shell was injured during the play.
18.4pts
Ryan TannehillTitansOT 8:42(8:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short middle to 80-C.Rogers. PENALTY on SEA-33-J.Adams, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 24 - No Play.
17.9pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Titans won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Seahawks at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Titans at 1 giveaway.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Titans won this one — 6 of 14 on third down, against Seahawks at 4 of 12 on third down.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Titans won this one — +0.11 expected points per carry, against Seahawks at -0.00 expected points per carry.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Titans184 of 197 plays carry both curves
(8:25) 6-B.Kern punts 53 yards to SEA 13, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 18-F.Swain.
Swing −29.3 for SeahawksExpected points −0.72 for SeahawksModel and market agree here.play 187
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 8:25SEA +29% win prob(8:25) 6-B.Kern punts 53 yards to SEA 13, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 18-F.Swain.
4th · 0:17TEN +18% win prob(:17) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 81-G.Everett [48-B.Dupree]. SEA-72-B.Shell was injured during the play.
Overtime · 8:42SEA +18% win prob(8:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short middle to 80-C.Rogers. PENALTY on SEA-33-J.Adams, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 24 - No Play.
Overtime · 8:08TEN +17% win prob(8:08) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at SEA 1 for -12 yards (92-O.Adeniyi).
4th · 0:10SEA +17% win prob(:10) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles right end pushed ob at SEA 43 for 12 yards (58-H.Landry).
Overtime · 7:28SEA +15% win prob(7:28) 4-M.Dickson punts 47 yards to SEA 48, Center-69-T.Ott. 80-C.Rogers to SEA 39 for 9 yards (59-J.Rhattigan).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Randy Bullock's 36-yard field goal with 4:50 left in overtime put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st9:30Jason Myers·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.Ott+30–3
1st2:50Randy Bullock·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap M.Cox+33–3
2nd8:23Randy Bullock·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap M.Cox+36–3
2nd6:47Tyler Lockett·63-yd TD catch63-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+76–10
Overtime4:50Randy Bullock·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap M.CoxLead never changed again+333–30
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Titanscategory by categorySeahawks
Titans4–2Seahawks
533Total yards397
6.5Yards per play7.6
51%Success rate40%
43%Third-down rate33%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays6
27First downs15
3Sacks taken3
1Turnovers0
The read
Titans ahead 4–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Seahawks, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.16Titans: +0.16 expected points added per play
+0.15Seahawks: +0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.21Titans: +0.21 expected points added per play
+0.23Seahawks: +0.23 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.11Titans: +0.11 expected points added per play
−0.00Seahawks: −0.00 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 82 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 52 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Titans 7, Seahawks 5.
NoteTitans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs 0.15.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TEN's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 66.7% in week 1 against 20.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 21.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · +1.4 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+0.27× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Seahawks17.8%
leaned — got home · +5.5 vs their 12.3%, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (+1.00× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTEN's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 20.0%, 29.2 points below their season mean of 49.2% and 1.4 times their own 21.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
B.Kern punts+29% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(8:25) 6-B.Kern punts 53 yards to SEA 13, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 18-F.Swain.
OT 8:25 · Titans · 4th & 15 at TEN 34 · gained nothing · +0.72 EP · +29.3% win probability
182 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 197 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 197 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 83 yards from the SEA 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
197 of 197 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
197
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
42%
Yards
929
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43+0.1270%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.1780%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23+0.5448%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.0440%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR10-0.1910%
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.3120%
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Titans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
197 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
197 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 34
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Titans 29
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.1 seconds
Titans0Seahawks3
Field goal5 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Titans 13
Titans3Seahawks3
Field goal16 plays, from the Titans 15 to the Seahawks 15
The period ended7 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 40
2nd quarter51 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 44 to the Titans 41
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Titans6Seahawks3
Field goal8 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Seahawks 5
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.7 seconds
Titans6Seahawks9
Titans6Seahawks10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Seahawks 17 to the Seahawks 37
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Titans 16 to the Titans 18
Titans6Seahawks16
Titans6Seahawks17
Touchdown3 plays, from the Titans 6 to the Titans 2
Titans9Seahawks17
Field goal10 plays, from the Titans 31 to the Seahawks 6
Titans9Seahawks23
Titans9Seahawks24
Touchdown12 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Titans 1
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Titans15Seahawks24
Titans16Seahawks24
Touchdown11 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Seahawks 9
Punt11 plays, from the Seahawks 11 to the Titans 47
No good12 plays, from the Titans 8 to the Seahawks 26
4th quarter54 plays
Titans16Seahawks30
Touchdown5 plays
Titans22Seahawks30
Titans23Seahawks30
Touchdown4 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 40
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 33
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Titans 18 to the Seahawks 29
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Seahawks 39
Titans29Seahawks30
Titans30Seahawks30
Touchdown16 plays, from the Titans 32 to the Seahawks 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linebackers and eight backsIn the boxTwo defendersRushing the passerTwo
The period ended9 plays, from the Seahawks 28 to the Seahawks 43
Overtime19 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Titans 18 to the Titans 39
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Punt4 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Titans33Seahawks30
Field goal5 plays, from the Seahawks 39 to the Seahawks 18
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
