2021 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 19, 2021 · Lumen Field

Tennessee TitansWinner

Seattle Seahawks

SEA -6.5 upsetO 53.5 ✓Seahawks closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Tennessee Titans 33–30 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 8:25, SEA +29% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 8:25TEN — SEA TEN ball · 4th & 15SEA 71%

(8:25) 6-B.Kern punts 53 yards to SEA 13, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 18-F.Swain.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 8:25SEA +29% win prob(8:25) 6-B.Kern punts 53 yards to SEA 13, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 18-F.Swain.
Q4 · 0:17TEN +18% win prob(:17) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 81-G.Everett [48-B.Dupree]. SEA-72-B.Shell was injured during the play.
OT · 8:42SEA +18% win prob(8:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short middle to 80-C.Rogers. PENALTY on SEA-33-J.Adams, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 24 - No Play.
OT · 8:08TEN +17% win prob(8:08) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at SEA 1 for -12 yards (92-O.Adeniyi).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Titans	Seahawks
Offensive plays	82	52
Total yards	533 (edge)	397
Yards per play	6.5	7.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.16 (edge)	0.15
Success rate	51% (edge)	40%
Dropback rate	55%	69%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.21	0.23 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.11 (edge)	-0.00
Third downs	6/14 (edge)	4/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	6
First downs gained on snaps	27 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	3	3
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Titans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs 0.15.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TEN

Ryan TannehillQB

27/40, 347 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

7.4 expected points added · +5.4% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Russell WilsonQB

22/31, 343 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

8.3 expected points added · +6.5% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

35 att, 182 yds, 3 TD

3.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SEA

Chris CarsonRB

13 att, 31 yds, 2 TD

-0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SEA

Tyler LockettWR

8/11 for 178 yds, 1 TD

35% of team targets · 7.2 expected points added

Receiving · TEN

Julio JonesWR

6/8 for 128 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 6.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SEA	SEA 25	5	9	1:20	Punt
2	TEN	TEN 20	4	9	2:17	Punt
3	SEA	SEA 30	5	57	1:58	Turnover on downs
4	TEN	TEN 15	14	65	6:40	Turnover on downs
5	SEA	SEA 25	11	13	4:58	Punt
6	TEN	TEN 20	7	73	4:29	Turnover on downs
7	SEA	SEA 17	5	83	1:44	Touchdown
8	TEN	TEN 16	3	-10	0:46	Fumble
9	SEA	TEN 6	3	6	0:28	Touchdown
10	TEN	TEN 31	9	51	4:15	Turnover on downs
11	SEA	SEA 25	9	65	0:48	Touchdown
12	TEN	TEN 27	2	0	0:17	End of half
13	TEN	TEN 20	10	61	4:23	Touchdown
14	SEA	SEA 11	10	41	4:56	Punt
15	TEN	TEN 8	12	66	5:41	Turnover on downs
16	SEA	SEA 34	4	76	1:54	Touchdown
17	TEN	TEN 25	4	75	0:49	Touchdown
18	SEA	SEA 25	5	8	1:34	Punt
19	TEN	TEN 18	10	38	4:57	Turnover on downs
20	SEA	SEA 30	4	9	1:33	Punt
21	TEN	TEN 32	13	78	3:44	Touchdown
22	SEA	SEA 28	5	42	0:29	Turnover on downs
23	TEN	TEN 18	7	6	1:41	Punt
24	SEA	SEA 13	4	-12	1:00	Punt
25	TEN	SEA 39	5	21	2:34	Turnover on downs

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Seahawks gained 83 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	27/40	347	0	0	3	7.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	35	182	5.2	3	3.8
Ryan Tannehill	4	27	6.8	0	2.3
Jeremy McNichols	1	3	3.0	0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Julio Jones	6	8	128	21%	6.7
Derrick Henry	6	6	55	15%	3.0
MyCole Pruitt	3	3	43	8%	5.6
A.J. Brown	3	9	43	23%	0.7
Jeremy McNichols	3	3	26	8%	2.5
Chester Rogers	2	5	22	13%	0.2
Tommy Hudson	1	2	14	5%	-1.3
Geoff Swaim	2	2	10	5%	-0.1
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	1	1	6	3%	0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Harold Landry	3	3	0.0	0
Chris Jackson	5	1	0.0	0
Janoris Jenkins	4	2	0.0	1
David Long Jr.	1	4	0.0	0
Rashaan Evans	1	3	0.0	0
Olasunkanmi Adeniyi	2	1	1.0	0
Dane Cruikshank	2	1	0.0	0
Denico Autry	2	1	1.5	0
Bradley McDougald	2	0	0.0	0
Kevin Byard	1	1	0.0	0

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	22/31	343	2	0	3	8.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Chris Carson	13	31	2.4	2	-0.9
Alex Collins	1	25	25.0	0	1.9
Russell Wilson	3	16	5.3	0	-1.2
Freddie Swain	1	5	5.0	0	-0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Lockett	8	11	178	1	35%	7.2
Freddie Swain	5	5	95	1	16%	8.7
DK Metcalf	6	11	53	0	35%	-3.2
Travis Homer	2	2	14	0	6%	0.4
Gerald Everett	1	2	3	0	6%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Bobby Wagner	13	4	1.0
Jamal Adams	5	3	0.0
Quandre Diggs	3	5	0.0
Jordyn Brooks	1	6	0.0
Robert Nkemdiche	1	5	0.0
D.J. Reed	3	3	0.0
Al Woods	4	2	1.0
Poona Ford	2	2	0.0
Tre Flowers	3	1	0.0
Cody Barton	1	2	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SEA -6.5
Closing total: 53.5
TEN moneyline: +247
SEA moneyline: -286

Seahawks closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 53.5; the game landed 63 — over by 9.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lumen Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 62°F, wind 14 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: TEN 7 days · SEA 7 days
Coaches: Mike Vrabel vs Pete Carroll