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Arizona Cardinals 31 at Jacksonville Jaguars 19. Final.
Cardinals -8 ✓U 51.5 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 3
Arizona Cardinals 31, Jaguars 19 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 0:35, 2nd and 6, on Byron Murphy — 32.3 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 0:35 · 2nd and 6
Byron Murphy
Cardinals
(:35) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right intended for 86-J.Hollister INTERCEPTED by 7-B.Murphy at JAX 29. 7-B.Murphy for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play was a handoff to JAX 24-C.Hyde who then tossed back to JAX 16-T.Lawrence for the pass which was intercepted.
Cardinals closed -8 and covered, winning by 12.
Arizona Cardinals 31–19. Biggest swing: Q3 0:35, Cardinals +32.3% win probability on one snap.
32.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Matt PraterJaguarsQ2 0:02(:02) 5-M.Prater 68 yard field goal is No Good, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. 39-J.Agnew at JAX -9 for 109 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
25.6pts
Andrew WingardJaguarsQ3 13:19(13:19) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep middle intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 42-A.Wingard at JAX -1. 42-A.Wingard pushed ob at JAX 22 for 23 yards (18-A.Green).
15.2pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Cardinals won this one — 1 giveaway, against Jaguars at 4 giveaways.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Cardinals won this one — +0.31 expected points per dropback, against Jaguars at -0.36 expected points per dropback.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cardinals won this one — +0.22 expected points per snap, against Jaguars at -0.16 expected points per snap.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Cardinals won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Jaguars at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 16.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Cardinals169 of 181 plays carry both curves
(:35) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right intended for 86-J.Hollister INTERCEPTED by 7-B.Murphy at JAX 29. 7-B.Murphy for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play was a handoff to JAX 24-C.Hyde who then tossed back to JAX 16-T.Lawrence for
Swing −32.3 for JaguarsExpected points −7.85 for JaguarsThe model had Jaguars 17 points higher than the market did.play 127
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 0:35ARI +32% win prob(:35) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right intended for 86-J.Hollister INTERCEPTED by 7-B.Murphy at JAX 29. 7-B.Murphy for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play was a handoff to JAX 24-C.Hyde who then tossed back to JAX 16-T.Lawrence for the pass which was intercepted.
2nd · 0:02ARI +26% win prob(:02) 5-M.Prater 68 yard field goal is No Good, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. 39-J.Agnew at JAX -9 for 109 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 13:19ARI +15% win prob(13:19) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep middle intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 42-A.Wingard at JAX -1. 42-A.Wingard pushed ob at JAX 22 for 23 yards (18-A.Green).
3rd · 2:01JAX +10% win prob(2:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 13-C.Kirk to JAX 4 for 33 yards (32-T.Campbell).
3rd · 9:02JAX +8% win prob(9:02) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 13-C.Kirk to JAX 23 for 3 yards (27-C.Claybrooks).
3rd · 3:38JAX +8% win prob(3:38) (Shotgun) 25-J.Robinson up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Byron Murphy's 29-yard touchdown with 0:35 left in the 3rd put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Cardinals ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.22Cardinals: +0.22 expected points added per play
−0.16Jaguars: −0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.31Cardinals: +0.31 expected points added per play
−0.36Jaguars: −0.36 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.08Cardinals: +0.08 expected points added per play
+0.12Jaguars: +0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 64 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 65 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 4, Jaguars 4.
NoteCardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
JAX's sack or hit rate turned over: 21.1% in week 2 against 2.7% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 13 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.7 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (+0.95× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Jaguars2.7%
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.9 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−1.26× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteJAX's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -11.5 pts, 9.5 points below their season mean of -2.0 pts and 1.6 times their own 6.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Lawrence pass−36% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:35) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right intended for 86-J.Hollister INTERCEPTED by 7-B.Murphy at JAX 29. 7-B.Murphy for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play was a handoff to JAX 24-C.Hyde who then tossed back to JAX 16-T.Lawrence for the pass which was intercepted.
Q3 0:35 · Jaguars · 2nd & 6 at JAX 25 · gained nothing · -7.85 EP · −35.6% win probability
167 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 75 yards from the JAX 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
44%
Yards
768
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46-0.0567%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR22+0.6277%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19-0.4226%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.2139%
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR16-0.0856%
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.9217%
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 32
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 9 to the Cardinals 18
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 23 to the Jaguars 29
Cardinals6Jaguars0
Cardinals7Jaguars0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cardinals 44 to the Jaguars 1
Punt9 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Cardinals 44
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 1 to the Cardinals 10
The period ended3 plays, from midfield to the Cardinals 48
2nd quarter46 plays
Intercepted5 plays, from the Cardinals 37 to the Cardinals 15
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 14 to the Cardinals 32
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 21 to the Jaguars 30
Punt8 plays, from the Cardinals 23 to the Jaguars 47
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Cardinals7Jaguars6
Cardinals7Jaguars7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Jaguars 26 to the Cardinals 12
Cardinals7Jaguars13
Touchdown7 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to midfield
3rd quarter46 plays
Intercepted6 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Jaguars 43
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 22 to the Jaguars 28
Cardinals10Jaguars13
Field goal12 plays, from the Cardinals 16 to the Jaguars 16
Cardinals10Jaguars19
Touchdown10 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Cardinals 4
Cardinals16Jaguars19
Cardinals17Jaguars19
Touchdown7 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Jaguars 4
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.9 seconds
Cardinals23Jaguars19
Touchdown3 plays, from the Jaguars 21 to the Jaguars 25
Cardinals24Jaguars19
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter50 plays
Punt4 plays
Cardinals30Jaguars19
Cardinals31Jaguars19
Touchdown13 plays, from the Cardinals 35 to the Jaguars 1
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Cardinals 23
Punt11 plays, from the Cardinals 24 to the Cardinals 47
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Cardinals 16
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Cardinalscategory by categoryJaguars
Cardinals6
Jaguars0
