2021 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 26, 2021 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Arizona CardinalsWinner

Jacksonville Jaguars

ARI -8 ✓U 51.5 ✓Cardinals closed -8 and covered, winning by 12.

Arizona Cardinals 31–19. Biggest swing: Q3 0:35, ARI +32% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 0:35ARI — JAX JAX ball · 2nd & 6JAX 52%

(:35) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right intended for 86-J.Hollister INTERCEPTED by 7-B.Murphy at JAX 29. 7-B.Murphy for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play was a handoff to JAX 24-C.Hyde who then tossed back to JAX 16-T.Lawrence for

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 0:35ARI +32% win prob(:35) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right intended for 86-J.Hollister INTERCEPTED by 7-B.Murphy at JAX 29. 7-B.Murphy for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play was a handoff to JAX 24-C.Hyde who then tossed back to JAX 16-T.Lawrence for the pass which was intercepted.
Q2 · 0:02ARI +26% win prob(:02) 5-M.Prater 68 yard field goal is No Good, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. 39-J.Agnew at JAX -9 for 109 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 13:19ARI +15% win prob(13:19) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep middle intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 42-A.Wingard at JAX -1. 42-A.Wingard pushed ob at JAX 22 for 23 yards (18-A.Green).
Q3 · 2:01JAX +10% win prob(2:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 13-C.Kirk to JAX 4 for 33 yards (32-T.Campbell).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cardinals	Jaguars
Offensive plays	64	65
Total yards	407 (edge)	361
Yards per play	6.4 (edge)	5.6
Expected points added / play	0.22 (edge)	-0.16
Success rate	53%	54% (edge)
Dropback rate	58%	58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.31 (edge)	-0.36
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.08	0.12 (edge)
Third downs	1/9	2/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1 (edge)	4

Cardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.16.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

28/34, 316 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

11.9 expected points added · +14.0% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

22/34, 219 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-13.1 expected points added · +2.8% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

James RobinsonRB

15 att, 88 yds, 1 TD

1.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

Carlos HydeRB

8 att, 44 yds, 0 TD

1.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ARI

A.J. GreenWR

5/6 for 112 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 8.4 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

Christian KirkWR

7/8 for 104 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 5.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	JAX	JAX 25	5	7	1:36	Punt
2	ARI	ARI 9	4	9	1:27	Punt
3	JAX	JAX 23	4	5	1:53	Punt
4	ARI	ARI 44	8	56	3:22	Touchdown
5	JAX	JAX 25	9	30	3:17	Punt
6	ARI	ARI 1	4	9	2:20	Punt
7	JAX	50	7	33	3:47	Interception
8	ARI	ARI 14	6	28	3:14	Punt
9	JAX	JAX 21	4	9	1:20	Punt
10	ARI	ARI 23	7	28	4:22	Punt
11	JAX	JAX 26	10	79	3:01	Touchdown
12	ARI	ARI 25	5	25	0:21	Turnover on downs
13	ARI	ARI 25	6	17	1:57	Interception
14	JAX	JAX 22	4	6	0:38	Punt
15	ARI	ARI 16	12	68	4:47	Turnover on downs
16	JAX	JAX 25	10	75	4:05	Touchdown
17	ARI	ARI 25	7	75	2:12	Touchdown
18	JAX	JAX 21	3	4	0:57	Defensive touchdown
19	JAX	JAX 25	5	14	1:43	Punt
20	ARI	ARI 35	12	65	6:52	Touchdown
21	JAX	JAX 25	9	36	2:38	Fumble
22	ARI	ARI 24	6	27	2:00	Punt
23	JAX	JAX 20	10	63	2:11	Fumble

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 79 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kyler Murray	28/34	316	0	1	0	11.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Conner	11	43	3.9	2	0.8
Chase Edmonds	11	26	2.4	0	-0.6
Kyler Murray	7	19	2.7	1	1.5
Rondale Moore	1	3	3.0	0	0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
A.J. Green	5	6	112	18%	8.4
Christian Kirk	7	8	104	24%	5.5
Chase Edmonds	7	8	49	24%	-1.4
DeAndre Hopkins	3	6	21	18%	-0.9
Maxx Williams	3	3	19	9%	1.2
James Conner	1	1	10	3%	0.6
Rondale Moore	2	2	1	6%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jordan Hicks	7	5	1.0	0	1
Jalen Thompson	4	3	0.0	0	0
Budda Baker	4	2	0.0	0	0
Isaiah Simmons	2	4	0.0	0	0
Marco Wilson	6	0	0.0	0	1
Robert Alford	3	2	0.0	0	1
Byron Murphy	3	1	0.0	2	2
Devon Kennard	2	1	0.0	0	0
Chandler Jones	3	0	0.0	0	0
Markus Golden	1	1	1.0	0	0

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trevor Lawrence	22/34	219	1	2	3	-13.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Robinson	15	88	5.9	1	1.9
Carlos Hyde	8	44	5.5	0	1.9
Trevor Lawrence	6	27	4.5	0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marvin Jones	6	8	62	0	25%	1.4
D.J. Chark	3	6	49	1	19%	4.5
Laviska Shenault Jr.	4	4	48	0	13%	4.1
James Robinson	6	6	46	0	19%	1.9
Jacob Hollister	2	6	15	0	19%	-14.5
Phillip Dorsett	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.1
Luke Farrell	1	1	-1	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Myles Jack	6	4	0	0
Damien Wilson	6	3	0	0
Tyson Campbell	6	2	0	1
Andrew Wingard	4	3	1	1
Shaquill Griffin	5	1	0	0
Adam Gotsis	2	2	0	0
Chris Claybrooks	1	3	0	0
Rudy Ford	3	0	0	0
K'Lavon Chaisson	2	1	0	0
Malcom Brown	1	1	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ARI -8
Closing total: 51.5
ARI moneyline: -360
JAX moneyline: +304

Cardinals closed -8 and covered, winning by 12.

Total closed 51.5; the game landed 50 — under by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 81°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: ARI 7 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches: Kliff Kingsbury vs Urban Meyer