2021 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 26, 2021 · MetLife Stadium

Atlanta FalconsWinner

New York Giants

NYG -3 upsetU 48 ✓Giants closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Atlanta Falcons 17–14 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, NYG +28% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:03ATL — NYG ATL ball · 4th & 7ATL 72%

(:03) 7-Y.Koo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-C.Nizialek.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:03NYG +28% win prob(:03) 7-Y.Koo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-C.Nizialek.
Q4 · 1:04NYG +14% win prob(1:04) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 8-K.Pitts to NYG 25 for 25 yards (21-J.Peppers; 23-L.Ryan).
Q2 · 0:14ATL +13% win prob(:14) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at NYG 41 for -6 yards (51-A.Ojulari). FUMBLES (51-A.Ojulari) [51-A.Ojulari], RECOVERED by NYG-59-L.Carter at NYG 39. Officially, a sack for -4 yards.
Q2 · 1:38NYG +13% win prob(1:38) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 17-O.Zaccheaus for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Falcons	Giants
Offensive plays	59	64
Total yards	296	349 (edge)
Yards per play	5.0	5.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.03	0.04 (edge)
Success rate	37%	47% (edge)
Dropback rate	66%	66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.13 (edge)	0.11
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.16	-0.09 (edge)
Third downs	5/13	7/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	15	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYG

Daniel JonesQB

24/35, 266 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

7.6 expected points added · +0.3% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Matt RyanQB

27/36, 243 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

5.2 expected points added · +4.2% completion over expected

Rushing · NYG

Saquon BarkleyRB

16 att, 51 yds, 1 TD

-1.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Mike DavisRB

12 att, 50 yds, 0 TD

0.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Cordarrelle PattersonRB

6/7 for 82 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 4.0 expected points added

Receiving · NYG

Kenny GolladayWR

4/5 for 64 yds, 0 TD

14% of team targets · 4.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ATL	ATL 25	7	16	2:46	Punt
2	NYG	NYG 20	11	83	5:16	Turnover on downs
3	ATL	ATL 21	6	26	2:18	Punt
4	NYG	NYG 11	5	24	2:05	Punt
5	ATL	ATL 40	4	7	1:44	Punt
6	NYG	NYG 14	15	89	7:38	Turnover on downs
7	ATL	ATL 19	10	51	4:31	Punt
8	NYG	NYG 3	4	4	1:33	Punt
9	ATL	NYG 44	7	36	0:36	Touchdown
10	NYG	NYG 25	3	13	0:33	Fumble
11	ATL	NYG 36	3	-3	0:53	Fumble
12	NYG	NYG 39	1	0	0:07	End of half
13	NYG	NYG 14	9	29	3:46	Punt
14	ATL	ATL 16	4	6	1:36	Punt
15	NYG	NYG 44	7	22	3:20	Punt
16	ATL	ATL 5	7	32	3:15	Punt
17	NYG	NYG 29	11	66	5:10	Touchdown
18	ATL	ATL 28	17	67	8:40	Touchdown
19	NYG	NYG 25	9	19	2:23	Punt
20	ATL	ATL 20	7	58	1:50	Turnover on downs

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Giants gained 89 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	27/36	243	2	0	3	5.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Mike Davis	12	50	4.2	0.3
Cordarrelle Patterson	7	20	2.9	-3.5
Matt Ryan	1	-1	-1.0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cordarrelle Patterson	6	7	82	0	19%	4.0
Calvin Ridley	8	11	61	0	31%	-0.8
Kyle Pitts	2	3	35	0	8%	1.9
Olamide Zaccheaus	3	6	32	1	17%	2.9
Mike Davis	4	4	20	0	11%	0.6
Lee Smith	3	3	7	1	8%	0.2
Tajae Sharpe	1	1	6	0	3%	1.1
Hayden Hurst	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Foyesade Oluokun	9	5	0.0	0
Deion Jones	8	4	0.0	0
T.J. Green	6	2	0.0	1
Erik Harris	3	1	0.0	2
Marlon Davidson	2	1	0.0	0
Ta'Quon Graham	2	1	0.0	0
Grady Jarrett	3	0	1.0	0
Dante Fowler	1	2	1.0	1
Steven Means	2	0	0.0	0
Isaiah Oliver	2	0	0.0	2

New York Giants

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Daniel Jones	24/35	266	0	0	2	7.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Saquon Barkley	16	51	3.2	1	-1.3
Daniel Jones	8	39	4.9	0	-0.3
Elijhaa Penny	2	6	3.0	0	-0.6
Gary Brightwell	1	4	4.0	0	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Kenny Golladay	4	5	64	14%	4.5
Collin Johnson	5	7	51	20%	2.6
Saquon Barkley	6	7	43	20%	0.2
C.J. Board	1	2	38	6%	3.0
Evan Engram	2	6	21	17%	-4.2
Kadarius Toney	2	3	16	9%	1.8
Sterling Shepard	2	3	16	9%	-0.9
Kaden Smith	1	1	9	3%	0.5
Darius Slayton	1	1	8	3%	0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Tae Crowder	3	7	0.0	1
Logan Ryan	3	6	0.0	1
Jabrill Peppers	4	3	0.0	0
Xavier McKinney	5	1	0.0	0
Leonard Williams	2	2	1.0	0
Austin Johnson	1	3	1.0	0
Reggie Ragland	3	1	0.0	0
Adoree' Jackson	4	0	0.0	0
Julian Love	0	3	0.0	1
Dexter Lawrence	1	2	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NYG -3
Closing total: 48
ATL moneyline: +129
NYG moneyline: -143

Giants closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 48; the game landed 31 — under by 17.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 69°F, wind 13 mph
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: ATL 7 days · NYG 10 days
Coaches: Arthur Smith vs Joe Judge