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Atlanta Falcons 17, Giants 14 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:03, 4th and 7, on Younghoe Koo — 28.0 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:03 · 4th and 7
Younghoe Koo
Falcons
(:03) 7-Y.Koo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-C.Nizialek.
Giants closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Atlanta Falcons 17–14 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, Falcons +28.0% win probability on one snap.
28.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Matt RyanGiantsQ2 0:14(:14) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at NYG 41 for -6 yards (51-A.Ojulari). FUMBLES (51-A.Ojulari) [51-A.Ojulari], RECOVERED by NYG-59-L.Carter at NYG 39. Officially, a sack for -4 yards.
12.6pts
Kyle PittsFalconsQ4 1:04(1:04) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 8-K.Pitts to NYG 25 for 25 yards (21-J.Peppers; 23-L.Ryan).
14.5pts
What separated them
Red zone
Falcons won this one — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Giants at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Giants owned this one and still lost it — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Falcons at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Falcons won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Giants at 4 chunk plays.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Giants owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 14 on third down, against Falcons at 5 of 13 on third down.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Giantshigher on Falcons158 of 169 plays carry both curves
(:03) 7-Y.Koo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-C.Nizialek.
Swing −28.0 for GiantsExpected points −0.45 for GiantsModel and market agree here.play 168
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:03NYG +28% win prob(:03) 7-Y.Koo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-C.Nizialek.
4th · 1:04NYG +14% win prob(1:04) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 8-K.Pitts to NYG 25 for 25 yards (21-J.Peppers; 23-L.Ryan).
2nd · 0:14ATL +13% win prob(:14) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at NYG 41 for -6 yards (51-A.Ojulari). FUMBLES (51-A.Ojulari) [51-A.Ojulari], RECOVERED by NYG-59-L.Carter at NYG 39. Officially, a sack for -4 yards.
2nd · 1:38NYG +13% win prob(1:38) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 17-O.Zaccheaus for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:58ATL +13% win prob(1:58) 9-R.Dixon punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Touchback.
4th · 5:01NYG +12% win prob(5:01) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short middle to 8-K.Pitts (23-L.Ryan). PENALTY on NYG-23-L.Ryan, Defensive Pass Interference, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 6 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Younghoe Koo's 40-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st7:01Graham Gano·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap C.Kreiter+30–3
2nd8:19Graham Gano·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap C.Kreiter+30–6
2nd1:38Olamide Zaccheaus·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan+77–6
4th4:16Lee Smith·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan+714–14
4th0:03Younghoe Koo·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder C.Nizialek · snap J.HarrisLead never changed again+317–14
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Falconscategory by categoryGiants
Falcons2–6Giants
296Total yards349
5.0Yards per play5.5
37%Success rate47%
38%Third-down rate50%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
7Explosive plays4
15First downs21
3Sacks taken2
1Turnovers1
The read
Giants ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Falcons, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.03Falcons: +0.03 expected points added per play
+0.04Giants: +0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.13Falcons: +0.13 expected points added per play
+0.11Giants: +0.11 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.16Falcons: −0.16 expected points added per play
−0.09Giants: −0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 59 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Giants’s 64 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 2, Giants 3.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ATL's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 60.0% in week 2 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 26 pts
inside their normal wobble · +2.4 vs their 9.5%, and they swing ±3.9 week to week (+0.62× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Giants15.4%
inside their normal wobble · +3.7 vs their 11.6%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.56× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteATL's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 37.2 points below their season mean of 37.2% and 1.5 times their own 24.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Giants→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Younghoe Koo+26% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:03) 7-Y.Koo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-C.Nizialek.
Q4 0:03 · Falcons · 4th & 7 at NYG 22 · gained nothing · +0.45 EP · +26.3% win probability
156 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 73 yards from the NYG 20 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
+0.00
Success rate
38%
Yards
644
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.0764%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.1944%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR15+0.4293%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12+0.1550%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.0470%
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8-0.1175%
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8-0.0438%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Giants0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Giants2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 43
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Falcons0Giants3
Field goal12 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Falcons 7
Punt6 plays, from the Falcons 21 to the Falcons 47
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 11 to the Giants 35
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 40 to the Falcons 47
The period ended4 plays, from the Giants 14 to the Giants 29
2nd quarter47 plays
Falcons0Giants6
Field goal13 plays, from the Giants 31 to the Falcons 13
Punt11 plays, from the Falcons 19 to the Giants 40
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 3 to the Giants 7
Falcons6Giants6
Falcons7Giants6
Touchdown9 plays, from the Giants 44 to the Giants 4
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Fumble lost3 plays
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Giants 36 to the Giants 35
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Giants 14 to the Giants 43
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 16 to the Falcons 22
Punt8 plays, from the Giants 44 to the Falcons 39
Punt7 plays, from the Falcons 5 to the Falcons 37
The period ended7 plays, from the Giants 29 to the Falcons 34
4th quarter47 plays
Falcons7Giants12
Falcons7Giants14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Falcons 1
Falcons13Giants14
Falcons14Giants14
Touchdown19 plays, from the Falcons 28 to the Giants 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Punt10 plays, from the Giants 25 to midfield
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Falcons17Giants14
Field goal10 plays, from the Falcons 20 to the Giants 21
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Giants -3
Closing total
48
Falcons moneyline
+129
Giants moneyline
-143
Giants closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 48; the game landed 31 — under by 17.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Mild, 70°F at kickoff; breezy at 13 mph out of the north-west; mainly clear.
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
Falcons 7 days · Giants 10 days
Coaches
Arthur Smith vs Joe Judge
2nd · 1:10
ATL +12% win prob
(1:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 88-E.Engram to NYG 38 for 13 yards (26-I.Oliver). FUMBLES (26-I.Oliver), RECOVERED by ATL-26-I.Oliver at NYG 38. 26-I.Oliver to NYG 36 for 2 yards (19-K.Golladay). ATL-90-M.Davidson was injured during the play. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
4th · 2:12ATL +10% win prob(2:12) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 40 for -9 yards (6-D.Fowler). FUMBLES (6-D.Fowler) [6-D.Fowler], and recovers at NYG 40. Penalty on NYG-76-N.Solder, Offensive Holding, declined.
