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1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 16.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Ravens154 of 164 plays carry both curves
(:03) 9-J.Tucker 66 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.
Swing −64.6 for LionsExpected points −2.25 for LionsThe model had Lions 3 points higher than the market did.play 163
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:03DET +65% win prob(:03) 9-J.Tucker 66 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.
4th · 0:26DET +20% win prob(:26) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 14-S.Watkins to DET 48 for 36 yards (25-W.Harris).
4th · 2:34DET +17% win prob(2:34) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 11-K.Raymond to BAL 14 for 22 yards (54-T.Bowser).
4th · 3:55DET +15% win prob(3:55) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 11-K.Raymond to BAL 35 for 19 yards (23-A.Averett) [93-C.Campbell]. Baltimore challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
4th · 1:04BAL +12% win prob(1:04) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 22 for -3 yards (53-C.Harris).
1st · 5:57BAL +12% win prob(5:57) 9-J.Tucker 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Justin Tucker's 66-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
2nd10:10Justin Tucker·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap N.Moore+33–0
4th1:08Ryan Santoso·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap S.Daly+316–17
4th0:03Justin Tucker·66-yd field goal66-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap N.MooreLead never changed again+319–17
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ravenscategory by categoryLions
Ravens4–4Lions
387Total yards285
6.9Yards per play4.8
43%Success rate38%
10%Third-down rate30%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
8Explosive plays6
16First downs20
4Sacks taken2
1Turnovers1
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Lions, in third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.06Ravens: +0.06 expected points added per play
−0.04Lions: −0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.22Ravens: +0.22 expected points added per play
+0.02Lions: +0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.32Ravens: −0.32 expected points added per play
−0.12Lions: −0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 56 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Lions’s 60 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 2, Lions 3.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BAL's pass rate over expected turned over: −17.9 pts in week 2 against +5.4 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 3.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
56 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points.
BAL's early-down pass rate turned over: 38.9% in week 2 against 66.7% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · +3.5 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.48× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Lions15.4%
inside their normal wobble · +4.8 vs their 10.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.74× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was BAL's pass rate over expected, 5.4 pts against a season mean of -1.2 pts — and BAL swings 6.7 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Justin Tucker+67% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:03) 9-J.Tucker 66 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.
Q4 0:03 · Ravens · 3rd & 10 at DET 48 · gained nothing · +2.25 EP · +67.1% win probability
152 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 164 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 75 yards from the DET 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
164 of 164 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
164
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
36%
Yards
672
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR25-0.0884%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR24+0.1350%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR14-0.1629%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12+0.0175%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11+0.7955%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.3775%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.2520%
Lions2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Lions0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Lions2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Ravens0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 48
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 4 to the Ravens 11
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 48 to the Ravens 48
No good6 plays, from the Ravens 35 to the Lions 31
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 39 to the Ravens 38
The period ended6 plays, from the Ravens 10 to the Ravens 47
2nd quarter51 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Ravens 42 to the Ravens 44
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 8 to the Lions 10
Ravens3Lions0
Field goal6 plays, from the Lions 46 to the Lions 21
Punt9 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Ravens 47
Ravens9Lions0
Ravens10Lions0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Ravens 35 to the Lions 11
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 34
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 24 to the Lions 44
The period ended8 plays, from the Lions 9 to the Lions 34
3rd quarter35 plays
Ravens13Lions0
Field goal8 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Lions 32
Ravens13Lions6
Ravens13Lions7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Ravens 2
Ravens16Lions7
Field goal11 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Lions 14
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter42 plays
Ravens16Lions13
Ravens16Lions14
Touchdown14 plays, from the Lions 22 to the Ravens 1
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.5 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Lions 42
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.6 seconds
Ravens16Lions17
Field goal12 plays, from the Lions 21 to the Ravens 13
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and seven backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.1 seconds
Ravens19Lions17
Field goal9 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Lions 48
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Ravens -7.5
Closing total
51
Ravens moneyline
-344
Lions moneyline
+292
Ravens closed -7.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 51; the game landed 36 — under by 15.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
Ravens 7 days · Lions 6 days
Coaches
John Harbaugh vs Dan Campbell
4th · 5:33
BAL +11% win prob
(5:33) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left intended for 5-M.Brown INTERCEPTED by 24-A.Oruwariye at DET 21. 24-A.Oruwariye to DET 21 for no gain (5-M.Brown).
4th · 5:25DET +8% win prob(5:25) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 80-D.Fells to DET 45 for 24 yards (44-M.Humphrey; 36-C.Clark) [99-O.Oweh].
