2021 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 26, 2021 · Ford Field

Baltimore RavensWinner

Detroit Lions

BAL -7.5 no coverU 51 ✓DomeRavens closed -7.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Baltimore Ravens 19–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, DET +65% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:03BAL — DET BAL ball · 3rd & 10DET 65%

(:03) 9-J.Tucker 66 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:03DET +65% win prob(:03) 9-J.Tucker 66 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.
Q4 · 0:26DET +20% win prob(:26) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 14-S.Watkins to DET 48 for 36 yards (25-W.Harris).
Q4 · 2:34DET +17% win prob(2:34) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 11-K.Raymond to BAL 14 for 22 yards (54-T.Bowser).
Q4 · 3:55DET +15% win prob(3:55) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 11-K.Raymond to BAL 35 for 19 yards (23-A.Averett) [93-C.Campbell]. Baltimore challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Ravens	Lions
Offensive plays	56	60
Total yards	387 (edge)	285
Yards per play	6.9 (edge)	4.8
Expected points added / play	0.06 (edge)	-0.04
Success rate	43% (edge)	38%
Dropback rate	70%	57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.22 (edge)	0.02
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.32	-0.12 (edge)
Third downs	1/10	3/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	16	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	2 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.04.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

16/31, 287 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

7.3 expected points added · +5.5% completion over expected

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

22/30, 217 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

3.1 expected points added · +4.9% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

7 att, 58 yds, 0 TD

0.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DET

D'Andre SwiftRB

14 att, 47 yds, 1 TD

-0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

Mark AndrewsTE

5/7 for 109 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 7.2 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Sammy WatkinsWR

4/7 for 68 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 1.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DET	DET 25	8	23	2:03	Punt
2	BAL	BAL 4	4	5	2:10	Punt
3	DET	DET 48	4	-8	1:32	Fumble
4	BAL	BAL 35	6	34	3:24	Turnover on downs
5	DET	DET 39	5	23	3:23	Punt
6	BAL	BAL 10	6	45	3:10	Punt
7	DET	DET 8	4	10	1:52	Punt
8	BAL	DET 46	6	25	2:21	Turnover on downs
9	DET	DET 25	7	10	3:11	Punt
10	BAL	BAL 35	9	75	3:39	Touchdown
11	DET	DET 25	5	9	1:25	Punt
12	BAL	BAL 24	6	32	1:23	Punt
13	DET	DET 9	5	34	0:27	End of half
14	BAL	BAL 25	8	53	2:44	Turnover on downs
15	DET	DET 25	13	75	6:55	Touchdown
16	BAL	BAL 25	11	61	4:40	Turnover on downs
17	DET	DET 25	14	47	7:25	Touchdown
18	BAL	BAL 25	6	30	2:51	Interception
19	DET	DET 21	9	62	4:21	Turnover on downs
20	BAL	BAL 25	8	27	1:04	Turnover on downs

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 75 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	16/31	287	1	1	4	7.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Lamar Jackson	7	58	8.3	0.3
Latavius Murray	7	28	4.0	-2.4
Ty'Son Williams	5	22	4.4	-0.4
Devonta Freeman	3	8	2.7	-1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mark Andrews	5	7	109	0	26%	7.2
Sammy Watkins	4	7	68	0	26%	1.1
Marquise Brown	3	7	53	0	26%	-1.8
James Proche	1	1	29	0	4%	2.3
Devin Duvernay	2	3	22	1	11%	3.6
Josh Oliver	1	1	6	0	4%	-0.2
Ty'Son Williams	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Chuck Clark	8	3	1.0
Patrick Queen	3	3	0.0
Marlon Humphrey	4	1	0.0
Brandon Stephens	1	3	0.0
Josh Bynes	2	2	0.0
Odafe Oweh	1	2	0.0
Calais Campbell	3	0	0.0
Tavon Young	3	0	1.0
Tyus Bowser	1	1	0.0
DeShon Elliott	2	0	0.0

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jared Goff	22/30	217	0	0	2	3.1
D'Andre Swift	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
D'Andre Swift	14	47	3.4	1	-0.5
Jamaal Williams	12	42	3.5	1	-2.6
Jared Goff	1	4	4.0	0	-1.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Kalif Raymond	6	10	68	36%	3.0
D'Andre Swift	7	7	60	25%	3.9
Darren Fells	2	3	35	11%	1.2
Jamaal Williams	2	2	25	7%	0.1
T.J. Hockenson	2	2	10	7%	-0.3
KhaDarel Hodge	1	1	9	4%	1.3
Quintez Cephus	1	1	8	4%	0.5
Amon-Ra St. Brown	1	1	2	4%	-0.1
Trinity Benson	0	1	0	4%	0.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Will Harris	6	0	0.0	0	0
Dean Marlowe	4	1	0.0	0	0
Amani Oruwariye	3	1	0.0	1	1
Romeo Okwara	3	1	1.0	0	0
Jalen Reeves-Maybin	4	0	0.0	0	0
Alex Anzalone	4	0	1.0	0	0
Derrick Barnes	2	1	0.0	0	0
Tracy Walker III	1	1	0.0	0	1
Bobby Price	2	0	0.0	0	3
A.J. Parker	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -7.5
Closing total: 51
BAL moneyline: -344
DET moneyline: +292

Ravens closed -7.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 51; the game landed 36 — under by 15.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Ford Field
Roof / surface: dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: BAL 7 days · DET 6 days
Coaches: John Harbaugh vs Dan Campbell