2021 Week 3 · Thu, Sep 23, 2021 · NRG Stadium

Carolina PanthersWinner

Houston Texans

CAR -8 ✓U 43 ✓DomePanthers closed -8 and covered, winning by 15.

Carolina Panthers 24–9. Biggest swing: Q2 0:19, CAR +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:19CAR — HOU CAR ball · 1st & 10CAR 81%

(:19) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at CAR 28 for -7 yards (90-R.Blacklock). FUMBLES (90-R.Blacklock) [90-R.Blacklock], recovered by CAR-61-M.Paradis at CAR 29.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:19CAR +13% win prob(:19) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at CAR 28 for -7 yards (90-R.Blacklock). FUMBLES (90-R.Blacklock) [90-R.Blacklock], recovered by CAR-61-M.Paradis at CAR 29.
Q3 · 11:41HOU +8% win prob(11:41) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short left to 13-B.Cooks. CAR-31-J.Burris was injured during the play. His return is Probable. PENALTY on CAR-26-D.Jackson, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at HOU 41 - No Play.
Q1 · 9:39HOU +7% win prob(9:39) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 2-Dj.Moore to HOU 46 for 29 yards (24-T.Smith) [94-C.Omenihu].
Q1 · 12:45HOU +6% win prob(12:45) 11-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to CAR 7, Center-46-J.Weeks. 13-A.Erickson to CAR 12 for 5 yards (15-C.Moore).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Panthers	Texans
Offensive plays	67	48
Total yards	410 (edge)	193
Yards per play	6.1 (edge)	4.0
Expected points added / play	0.19 (edge)	-0.29
Success rate	46% (edge)	35%
Dropback rate	57%	65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.36 (edge)	-0.23
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.03 (edge)	-0.40
Third downs	5/10 (edge)	1/9
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10 (edge)	1
First downs gained on snaps	25 (edge)	12
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	4
Turnovers	0	0

Panthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.29.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

Sam DarnoldQB

23/34, 304 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

12.0 expected points added · -0.3% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

Davis MillsQB

19/28, 168 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-7.6 expected points added · +6.1% completion over expected

Rushing · CAR

Chuba HubbardRB

11 att, 52 yds, 0 TD

-3.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Christian McCaffreyRB

7 att, 31 yds, 0 TD

-0.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

D.J. MooreWR

8/12 for 126 yds, 0 TD

36% of team targets · 8.0 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Brandin CooksWR

9/11 for 112 yds, 0 TD

44% of team targets · 2.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CAR	CAR 25	5	7	0:58	Punt
2	HOU	HOU 36	4	4	1:26	Punt
3	CAR	CAR 12	11	88	6:00	Touchdown
4	HOU	HOU 25	7	27	3:06	Punt
5	CAR	CAR 14	14	81	7:43	Turnover on downs
6	HOU	HOU 5	7	11	5:00	Punt
7	CAR	CAR 29	4	6	1:47	Punt
8	HOU	HOU 28	4	2	1:52	Punt
9	CAR	CAR 26	4	1	0:31	Punt
10	HOU	HOU 36	8	64	1:12	Touchdown
11	CAR	CAR 25	3	4	0:25	End of half
12	HOU	HOU 17	12	25	4:23	Punt
13	CAR	CAR 9	10	76	4:17	Touchdown
14	HOU	HOU 25	5	-5	2:05	Punt
15	CAR	CAR 41	10	60	6:31	Turnover on downs
16	HOU	HOU 25	9	40	3:35	Turnover on downs
17	CAR	CAR 25	14	75	5:02	Touchdown
18	HOU	HOU 39	6	25	1:36	Turnover on downs
19	CAR	CAR 42	5	12	2:31	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 88 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	23/34	304	0	0	3	12.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Chuba Hubbard	11	52	4.7	0	-3.3
Christian McCaffrey	7	31	4.4	0	-0.1
Royce Freeman	5	17	3.4	0	-0.7
Sam Darnold	8	11	1.4	2	2.8
Tommy Tremble	1	7	7.0	1	1.4
D.J. Moore	1	-1	-1.0	0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
D.J. Moore	8	12	126	36%	8.0
Terrace Marshall	4	5	48	15%	2.3
Tommy Tremble	1	1	30	3%	2.9
Chuba Hubbard	3	5	27	15%	-0.9
Alex Erickson	1	1	25	3%	1.7
Dan Arnold	2	4	23	12%	1.2
Christian McCaffrey	2	2	9	6%	0.4
Royce Freeman	1	1	8	3%	0.2
Robbie Chosen	1	2	8	6%	0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Donte Jackson	5	1	0.0	0
Jeremy Chinn	3	2	0.0	0
Shaq Thompson	4	1	0.0	0
Rashaan Melvin	3	1	0.0	0
Jermaine Carter	2	2	0.0	0
Sean Chandler	1	2	0.0	0
Brian Burns	2	1	1.0	1
Haason Reddick	2	1	1.5	0
Frankie Luvu	2	0	1.0	0
Derrick Brown	2	0	0.0	0

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Davis Mills	19/28	168	1	0	4	-7.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Mark Ingram	6	21	3.5	-0.8
David Johnson	2	11	5.5	-0.6
Brandin Cooks	1	5	5.0	-0.1
Phillip Lindsay	7	5	0.7	-4.0
Davis Mills	1	0	0.0	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brandin Cooks	9	11	112	0	44%	2.3
Jordan Akins	4	5	32	0	20%	0.6
Anthony Miller	4	6	20	1	24%	0.3
Rex Burkhead	1	1	5	0	4%	-0.6
Chris Conley	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.5
Mark Ingram	1	1	-1	0	4%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Zach Cunningham	4	8	0.0	0
Christian Kirksey	5	3	0.0	0
Vernon Hargreaves	6	2	0.0	1
Lonnie Johnson	3	4	0.0	1
Eric Murray	3	1	0.0	0
Jonathan Greenard	2	2	1.0	0
Maliek Collins	2	1	0.0	0
Joe Thomas	1	2	0.0	0
DeMarcus Walker	1	1	0.0	0
Tremon Smith	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CAR -8
Closing total: 43
CAR moneyline: -420
HOU moneyline: +348

Panthers closed -8 and covered, winning by 15.

Total closed 43; the game landed 33 — under by 10.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: NRG Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: CAR 4 days · HOU 4 days
Coaches: Matt Rhule vs David Culley