For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Carolina Panthers 24, Texans 9 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 0:19, 1st and 10, on Sam Darnold — 12.6 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:19 · 1st and 10
Sam Darnold
Texans
(:19) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at CAR 28 for -7 yards (90-R.Blacklock). FUMBLES (90-R.Blacklock) [90-R.Blacklock], recovered by CAR-61-M.Paradis at CAR 29.
Dome
Panthers closed -8 and covered, winning by 15.
Carolina Panthers 24–9. Biggest swing: Q2 0:19, Texans +12.6% win probability on one snap.
12.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D.J. MoorePanthersQ1 9:39(9:39) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 2-Dj.Moore to HOU 46 for 29 yards (24-T.Smith) [94-C.Omenihu].
7.4pts
Davis MillsTexansQ3 11:41(11:41) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short left to 13-B.Cooks. CAR-31-J.Burris was injured during the play. His return is Probable. PENALTY on CAR-26-D.Jackson, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at HOU 41 - No Play.
7.6pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Panthers won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Texans at 1 chunk play.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Panthers won this one — 5 of 10 on third down, against Texans at 1 of 9 on third down.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Panthers won this one — +0.19 expected points per snap, against Texans at -0.29 expected points per snap.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Panthers won this one — +0.36 expected points per dropback, against Texans at -0.23 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 17.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 35 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Panthers156 of 168 plays carry both curves
(:19) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at CAR 28 for -7 yards (90-R.Blacklock). FUMBLES (90-R.Blacklock) [90-R.Blacklock], recovered by CAR-61-M.Paradis at CAR 29.
Swing +12.6 for TexansExpected points +0.41 for TexansThe model had Texans 27 points higher than the market did.play 84
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:19CAR +13% win prob(:19) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at CAR 28 for -7 yards (90-R.Blacklock). FUMBLES (90-R.Blacklock) [90-R.Blacklock], recovered by CAR-61-M.Paradis at CAR 29.
3rd · 11:41HOU +8% win prob(11:41) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short left to 13-B.Cooks. CAR-31-J.Burris was injured during the play. His return is Probable. PENALTY on CAR-26-D.Jackson, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at HOU 41 - No Play.
1st · 9:39HOU +7% win prob(9:39) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 2-Dj.Moore to HOU 46 for 29 yards (24-T.Smith) [94-C.Omenihu].
1st · 12:45HOU +6% win prob(12:45) 11-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to CAR 7, Center-46-J.Weeks. 13-A.Erickson to CAR 12 for 5 yards (15-C.Moore).
2nd · 0:25CAR +5% win prob16-J.Slye extra point is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
1st · 7:27HOU +5% win prob(7:27) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 2-Dj.Moore to HOU 5 for 26 yards (58-C.Kirksey).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Sam Darnold's 5-yard rushing touchdown with 6:41 left in the 1st put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:41Sam Darnold·5-yd TD run5-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
2nd0:29Anthony Miller·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Davis Millsfrom Davis Mills · kick no good, wide right+67–6
Panthers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.40 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.19Panthers: +0.19 expected points added per play
−0.29Texans: −0.29 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.36Panthers: +0.36 expected points added per play
−0.23Texans: −0.23 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.03Panthers: −0.03 expected points added per play
−0.40Texans: −0.40 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 67 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Texans’s 48 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 5, Texans 1.
NotePanthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.29.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 15 pts
leaned — got home · +10.0 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (+1.10× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Texans15.8%
inside their normal wobble · +4.0 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.69× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCAR's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 25.8%, 10.0 points above their season mean of 15.8% and 1.1 times their own 9.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Hubbard left−11% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(10:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left guard to HOU 5 for no gain (58-C.Kirksey, 41-Z.Cunningham).
Q2 10:58 · Panthers · 4th & 1 at HOU 5 · gained nothing · -4.03 EP · −11.3% win probability
154 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 91 yards from the CAR 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
38%
Yards
600
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.1576%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30-0.2577%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.3247%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.3158%
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11+0.2027%
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Panthers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 32
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 36 to the Texans 41
Panthers6Texans0
Panthers7Texans0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Panthers 12 to the Texans 5
Punt8 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 42
The period ended7 plays, from the Panthers 14 to the Panthers 40
2nd quarter49 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Panthers 44 to the Texans 5
Punt12 plays, from the Texans 5 to the Texans 36
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 29 to the Panthers 31
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 28 to the Texans 30
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 26 to the Panthers 34
Panthers7Texans6
Touchdown9 plays, from the Texans 36 to the Panthers 1
The period ended5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 35
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt15 plays, from the Texans 17 to the Panthers 39
Panthers13Texans6
Panthers14Texans6
Touchdown10 plays, from the Panthers 9 to the Texans 7
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 29
The period ended8 plays, from the Panthers 41 to the Texans 41
4th quarter45 plays
Panthers17Texans6
Field goal6 plays, from the Texans 42 to the Texans 3
Panthers17Texans9
Field goal9 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Panthers 31
Panthers23Texans9
Panthers24Texans9
Touchdown16 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Texans 1
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Texans 39 to the Panthers 49
The period ended7 plays, from the Panthers 42 to the Texans 46
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
