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Cleveland Browns 26, Bears 6 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 4:23, 4th and 1, on Baker Mayfield — 16.0 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 4:23 · 4th and 1
Baker Mayfield
Bears
(4:23) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at CHI 31 for -11 yards (52-K.Mack).
15.7 mph wind
Browns closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 20.
Cleveland Browns 26–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 4:23, Bears +16.0% win probability on one snap. Played in 15.7 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
16.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Austin HooperBrownsQ2 0:23(:23) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 81-A.Hooper for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.2pts
John JohnsonBearsQ3 4:02(4:02) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep right intended for 12-A.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 43-J.Johnson [55-T.McKinley] at CLE 3. 43-J.Johnson to CLE 3 for no gain. PENALTY on CLE-43-J.Johnson, Defensive Pass Interference, 48 yards, enforced at CHI 40 - No Play.
8.4pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Browns won this one — 12 chunk plays, against Bears at 1 chunk play.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Browns won this one — +0.04 expected points per snap, against Bears at -0.61 expected points per snap.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Browns won this one — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bears at 24% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Browns won this one — 8 of 17 on third down, against Bears at 1 of 11 on third down.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 26 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Bears157 of 166 plays carry both curves
(4:23) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at CHI 31 for -11 yards (52-K.Mack).
Swing −16.0 for BrownsExpected points −4.57 for BrownsThe model had Bears 22 points higher than the market did.play 27
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 4:23CHI +16% win prob(4:23) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at CHI 31 for -11 yards (52-K.Mack).
3rd · 4:02CLE +8% win prob(4:02) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep right intended for 12-A.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 43-J.Johnson [55-T.McKinley] at CLE 3. 43-J.Johnson to CLE 3 for no gain. PENALTY on CLE-43-J.Johnson, Defensive Pass Interference, 48 yards, enforced at CHI 40 - No Play.
2nd · 0:23CLE +8% win prob(:23) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 81-A.Hooper for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 7:02CLE +8% win prob(7:02) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 11-D.Peoples-Jones ran ob at CHI 29 for 21 yards.
1st · 14:51CLE +7% win prob(14:51) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 13-O.Beckham to CLE 38 for 13 yards (36-D.Houston-Carson).
2nd · 9:31CLE +7% win prob(9:31) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 82-R.Higgins to CLE 43 for 17 yards (4-E.Jackson).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Austin Hooper's 13-yard touchdown catch with 0:23 left in the 2nd put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:45Cairo Santos·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+33–0
2nd12:36Chase McLaughlin·57-yd field goal57-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Hughlett+33–3
4th10:45Chase McLaughlin·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Hughlett+36–23
4th3:46Chase McLaughlin·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Hughlett+36–26
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bearscategory by categoryBrowns
Bears0–8Browns
47Total yards420
1.1Yards per play5.6
24%Success rate45%
9%Third-down rate47%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
1Explosive plays12
4First downs24
9Sacks taken5
0Turnovers0
The read
Browns ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.71 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.61Bears: −0.61 expected points added per play
+0.04Browns: +0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.71Bears: −0.71 expected points added per play
−0.01Browns: −0.01 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.34Bears: −0.34 expected points added per play
+0.10Browns: +0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 42 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Browns’s 75 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Bears 1, Browns 6.
NoteBrowns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.61.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CLE's sack or hit rate, 43.3%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 17.5 points clear of the next team along.
3.2 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.8-swing turn from week 2.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · −2.7 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Browns43.3%
off script — got home · +28.4 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+3.19× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCLE's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 43.3%, 28.4 points above their season mean of 15.0% and 3.2 times their own 8.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
7 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Mayfield sacked−14% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(4:23) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at CHI 31 for -11 yards (52-K.Mack).
Q1 4:23 · Browns · 4th & 1 at CHI 20 · lost 11 · -4.57 EP · −14.2% win probability
155 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 89 yards from the CLE 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
-0.11
Success rate
37%
Yards
465
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.6669%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.3463%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR22+0.0223%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.5455%
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.2633%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.1860%
Browns2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Bears 38
Bears3Browns0
Field goal5 plays, from the Bears 47 to the Browns 29
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerTwo
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Bears 20
Punt4 plays
The period ended4 plays, from the Browns 23 to the Browns 44
2nd quarter47 plays
Bears3Browns3
Field goal6 plays, from the Bears 46 to the Bears 29
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 23 to the Bears 24
Punt9 plays, from the Browns 23 to the Bears 37
Punt7 plays, from the Bears 19 to the Bears 43
Bears3Browns9
Bears3Browns10
Touchdown17 plays, from the Browns 11 to the Bears 13
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays
Bears3Browns13
Field goal8 plays, from the Bears 44 to the Bears 15
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 23 to the Bears 25
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 24 to the Browns 29
Bears6Browns13
Field goal11 plays, from the Bears 31 to the Browns 4
The period ended6 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Bears 36
4th quarter45 plays
Bears6Browns19
Bears6Browns20
Touchdown3 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Bears 28 to the Bears 37
Bears6Browns23
Field goal7 plays, from the Browns 29 to the Bears 34
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 26
Bears6Browns26
Field goal11 plays, from the Browns 49 to the Bears 10
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 35
The period ended6 plays, from the Bears 21 to the Bears 10
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
