2021 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 26, 2021 · FirstEnergy Stadium

Chicago Bears

Cleveland BrownsWinner

CLE -7.5 ✓U 45 ✓22 mph windBrowns closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 20.

Cleveland Browns 26–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 4:23, CHI +16% win probability on one snap. Played in 22 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 4:23CHI — CLE CLE ball · 4th & 1CLE 72%

(4:23) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at CHI 31 for -11 yards (52-K.Mack).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 4:23CHI +16% win prob(4:23) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at CHI 31 for -11 yards (52-K.Mack).
Q3 · 4:02CLE +8% win prob(4:02) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep right intended for 12-A.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 43-J.Johnson [55-T.McKinley] at CLE 3. 43-J.Johnson to CLE 3 for no gain. PENALTY on CLE-43-J.Johnson, Defensive Pass Interference, 48 yards, enforced at CHI 40 - No Play.
Q2 · 0:23CLE +8% win prob(:23) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 81-A.Hooper for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 7:02CLE +8% win prob(7:02) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 11-D.Peoples-Jones ran ob at CHI 29 for 21 yards.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bears	Browns
Offensive plays	42	75
Total yards	47	420 (edge)
Yards per play	1.1	5.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.61	0.04 (edge)
Success rate	24%	45% (edge)
Dropback rate	71%	52%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.71	-0.01 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.34	0.10 (edge)
Third downs	1/11	8/17 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	1	12 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	4	24 (edge)
Sacks taken	9	5 (edge)
Turnovers	0	0

Browns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.61.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CLE

Baker MayfieldQB

19/31, 246 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-2.3 expected points added · +0.6% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

6/20, 68 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-21.8 expected points added · -38.8% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

22 att, 84 yds, 0 TD

-2.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CLE

Kareem HuntRB

10 att, 81 yds, 1 TD

4.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CLE

Odell BeckhamWR

5/9 for 77 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · 4.3 expected points added

Receiving · CLE

Kareem HuntRB

6/7 for 74 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 4.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 25	11	23	3:34	Turnover on downs
2	CHI	CHI 47	5	24	2:46	Turnover on downs
3	CLE	CLE 25	8	34	4:22	Turnover on downs
4	CHI	CHI 31	4	-1	2:15	Punt
5	CLE	CLE 23	8	48	4:32	Turnover on downs
6	CHI	CHI 23	5	-9	2:18	Punt
7	CLE	CLE 23	9	30	4:36	Punt
8	CHI	CHI 19	6	23	2:43	Punt
9	CLE	CLE 11	13	89	2:35	Touchdown
10	CHI	CHI 10	2	4	0:19	End of half
11	CHI	CHI 25	5	-8	1:02	Punt
12	CLE	CHI 44	7	31	4:26	Turnover on downs
13	CHI	CHI 23	5	-1	1:46	Punt
14	CLE	CLE 24	4	1	2:01	Punt
15	CHI	CHI 31	9	27	4:02	Turnover on downs
16	CLE	CLE 25	8	75	1:57	Touchdown
17	CHI	CHI 28	6	4	1:06	Punt
18	CLE	CLE 29	6	37	3:00	Turnover on downs
19	CHI	CHI 25	5	-12	1:22	Punt
20	CLE	CLE 49	10	41	5:35	Turnover on downs
21	CHI	CHI 25	6	-4	0:47	Turnover on downs
22	CLE	CHI 21	5	11	2:56	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 89 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Fields	6/20	68	0	0	9	-21.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
David Montgomery	10	34	3.4	0	-2.9
Justin Fields	3	12	4.0	0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Allen Robinson	2	6	27	30%	0.3
David Montgomery	2	4	21	20%	-0.6
Cole Kmet	1	4	11	20%	-2.4
Darnell Mooney	1	4	9	20%	-1.2
Jimmy Graham	0	1	0	5%	-0.5
Marquise Goodwin	0	1	0	5%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Roquan Smith	5	5	0.0	0
Eddie Jackson	4	2	0.0	0
Duke Shelley	3	3	0.0	0
Angelo Blackson	2	3	0.5	0
Khyiris Tonga	2	3	0.0	0
Alec Ogletree	4	0	0.0	0
Bilal Nichols	1	3	0.0	0
Kindle Vildor	2	2	0.0	0
Deon Bush	3	1	0.0	1
Margus Hunt	2	1	0.0	0

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	19/31	246	1	0	5	-2.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Nick Chubb	22	84	3.8	0	-2.0
Kareem Hunt	10	81	8.1	1	4.4
Baker Mayfield	4	31	7.8	0	1.8
Odell Beckham	1	10	10.0	0	0.5
D'Ernest Johnson	2	9	4.5	0	0.4
Case Keenum	3	0	0.0	0	-4.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Odell Beckham	5	9	77	0	31%	4.3
Kareem Hunt	6	7	74	0	24%	4.7
Donovan Peoples-Jones	2	2	39	0	7%	3.1
Rashard Higgins	2	2	24	0	7%	2.5
Austin Hooper	2	3	19	1	10%	2.6
Demetric Felton	2	3	13	0	10%	-2.2
Harrison Bryant	0	2	0	0	7%	-2.6
Anthony Schwartz	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Myles Garrett	6	1	4.5	0
Ronnie Harrison	2	1	1.0	1
Denzel Ward	3	0	0.0	1
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah	2	1	0.5	2
Greg Newsome	3	0	0.0	1
Jadeveon Clowney	2	1	2.0	0
Elijah Lee	1	1	0.0	0
M.J. Stewart	1	1	0.0	0
Malcolm Smith	0	2	0.0	1
Malik Jackson	0	2	0.5	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CLE -7.5
Closing total: 45
CHI moneyline: +315
CLE moneyline: -375

Browns closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 20.

Total closed 45; the game landed 32 — under by 13.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 70°F, wind 22 mph
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: CHI 7 days · CLE 7 days
Coaches: Matt Nagy vs Kevin Stefanski

Wind at 22 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.