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Cincinnati Bengals 24 at Pittsburgh Steelers 10. Final.
Steelers -2.5 upset
The verdict · 2021 Week 3
Cincinnati Bengals 24, Steelers 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 0:43, 1st and 10, on Ja'Marr Chase — 10.0 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:43 · 1st and 10
Ja'Marr Chase
Bengals
(:43) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 1-J.Chase for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
U 42.5 ✓
Steelers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Cincinnati Bengals 24–10. Biggest swing: Q2 0:43, Bengals +10.0% win probability on one snap.
10.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Najee HarrisSteelersQ2 1:22(1:22) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 22-N.Harris to CIN 4 for 18 yards (30-J.Bates).
8.9pts
Logan WilsonBengalsQ3 7:59(7:59) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle intended for 19-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 55-L.Wilson at PIT 32. 55-L.Wilson to PIT 19 for 13 yards (22-N.Harris). Penalty on PIT-53-K.Green, Offensive Holding, declined.
9.1pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Bengals won this one — 46% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Steelers at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bengals won this one — +0.37 expected points per dropback, against Steelers at -0.13 expected points per dropback.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bengals won this one — +0.14 expected points per snap, against Steelers at -0.17 expected points per snap.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Bengals won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Steelers at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Bengals162 of 175 plays carry both curves
(:43) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 1-J.Chase for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −10.0 for SteelersExpected points −4.05 for SteelersModel and market agree here.play 74
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:43PIT +10% win prob(:43) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 1-J.Chase for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 7:59CIN +9% win prob(7:59) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle intended for 19-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 55-L.Wilson at PIT 32. 55-L.Wilson to PIT 19 for 13 yards (22-N.Harris). Penalty on PIT-53-K.Green, Offensive Holding, declined.
2nd · 1:22PIT +9% win prob(1:22) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 22-N.Harris to CIN 4 for 18 yards (30-J.Bates).
1st · 7:48CIN +9% win prob(7:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 34-Te.Edmunds at PIT 29. 34-Te.Edmunds to PIT 44 for 15 yards (1-J.Chase; 89-D.Sample).
1st · 3:03PIT +6% win prob(3:03) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 83-T.Boyd for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 8:45PIT +6% win prob(8:45) 6-P.Harvin punts 50 yards to CIN 43, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 23-D.Phillips to CIN 36 for -7 yards (40-J.Jones).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ja'Marr Chase's 34-yard touchdown catch with 0:43 left in the 2nd put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st3:03Tyler Boyd·17-yd TD catch17-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+77–0
2nd1:09Pat Freiermuth·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben Roethlisberger+77–7
2nd0:43Ja'Marr Chase·34-yd TD catch34-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe BurrowLead never changed again+714–7
3rd8:51Evan McPherson·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+317–7
3rd6:25Ja'Marr Chase·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+724–7
4th8:12Chris Boswell·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder P.Harvin · snap C.Kuntz+324–10
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bengalscategory by categorySteelers
Bengals5–3Steelers
272Total yards342
7.0Yards per play4.4
46%Success rate34%
33%Third-down rate47%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays4
11First downs18
0Sacks taken4
1Turnovers2
The read
Bengals ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.37 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.14Bengals: +0.14 expected points added per play
−0.17Steelers: −0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.37Bengals: +0.37 expected points added per play
−0.13Steelers: −0.13 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.08Bengals: −0.08 expected points added per play
−0.34Steelers: −0.34 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 39 snaps at a 49% dropback rate against Steelers’s 77 at 82%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 3, Steelers 3.
NoteSteelers outgained Bengals 342-272 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
PIT's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 2.7 points clear of the next team along.
2.6 times their own weekly swing below their number.
19 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · −2.7 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−0.57× that swing) · 63 dropbacks
Steelers0.0%
off script — stayed blocked · −15.4 vs their 15.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−2.56× that swing) · 19 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePIT's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 15.4 points below their season mean of 15.4% and 2.6 times their own 6.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
—Jonah WilliamsT · Every snap100%47 snaps
67Quinton SpainG · Every snap100%47 snaps
66Trey HopkinsC · Every snap100%47 snaps
79Jackson CarmanG · Every snap100%47 snaps
9Joe BurrowQB · Every snap100%47 snaps
71Riley ReiffT · Full-time96%45 snaps
1Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Full-time83%39 snaps
83Tyler BoydWR · Heavy rotation79%37 snaps
28Joe MixonRB · Heavy rotation74%35 snaps
87C.J. UzomahTE · Heavy rotation70%33 snaps
19Auden TateWR · Heavy rotation57%27 snaps
89Drew SampleTE · Rotational45%21 snaps
34Samaje PerineRB · Situational21%10 snaps
80Mike ThomasWR · Situational21%10 snaps
75Isaiah PrinceT · Situational15%7 snaps
16Trenton IrwinWR · Situational13%6 snaps
25Chris EvansRB · Situational11%5 snaps
17Stanley MorganWR · Situational6%3 snaps
21Mike HiltonCB · Situational4%2 snaps
84Mitchell WilcoxTE · Situational4%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Nick McCloudCBTrae WaynesCBXavier Su'a-FiloGTyler ShelvinNTFred JohnsonTTee HigginsWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Burrow pass+11% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:43) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 1-J.Chase for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 0:43 · Bengals · 1st & 10 at PIT 34 · gained 34 · +4.05 EP · +11.1% win probability
160 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 88 yards from the PIT 4 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
34%
Yards
610
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR61-0.0680%
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.3552%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.45100%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.9240%
Steelers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Bengals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 29
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 42 to the Bengals 46
Punt6 plays
Intercepted2 plays, from the Bengals 36 to the Bengals 42
Intercepted4 plays, from the Steelers 44 to the Steelers 46
Bengals6Steelers0
Bengals7Steelers0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Steelers 42 to the Steelers 17
The period ended8 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 40
2nd quarter43 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 45 to the Bengals 46
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 19 to the Bengals 49
Bengals7Steelers6
Bengals7Steelers7
Touchdown17 plays, from the Steelers 14 to the Bengals 4
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Bengals13Steelers7
Bengals14Steelers7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Steelers 34
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 27
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Bengals17Steelers7
Field goal14 plays, from the Bengals 20 to the Steelers 20
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 31
Bengals23Steelers7
Bengals24Steelers7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Steelers 19 to the Steelers 9
No good8 plays, from the Steelers 24 to the Bengals 24
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 32 to the Bengals 38
The period ended7 plays, from the Steelers 4 to the Steelers 23
4th quarter50 plays
Bengals24Steelers10
Field goal16 plays, from the Steelers 24 to the Bengals 3
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 29 to the Bengals 36
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Steelers 15 to the Bengals 11
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 12 to the Bengals 21
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Steelers 27 to the Steelers 35
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Steelers -2.5
Closing total
42.5
Bengals moneyline
+126
Steelers moneyline
-140
Steelers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 34 — under by 8.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Heinz Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 69°F at kickoff; breezy at 11 mph out of the west; clear.
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
Bengals 7 days · Steelers 7 days
Coaches
Zac Taylor vs Mike Tomlin
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
1st · 1:33PIT +6% win prob(1:33) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete deep right to 13-J.Washington. PENALTY on CIN-22-C.Awuzie, Defensive Pass Interference, 13 yards, enforced at PIT 24 - No Play.
1st · 6:51CIN +6% win prob(6:51) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle intended for 11-C.Claypool INTERCEPTED by 55-L.Wilson [94-S.Hubbard] at PIT 42. 55-L.Wilson to PIT 42 for no gain (51-T.Turner).
