2021 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 26, 2021 · Heinz Field

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

Pittsburgh Steelers

PIT -2.5 upsetU 42.5 ✓Steelers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Cincinnati Bengals 24–10. Biggest swing: Q2 0:43, PIT +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:43CIN — PIT CIN ball · 1st & 10CIN 60%

(:43) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 1-J.Chase for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:43PIT +10% win prob(:43) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 1-J.Chase for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 7:59CIN +9% win prob(7:59) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle intended for 19-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 55-L.Wilson at PIT 32. 55-L.Wilson to PIT 19 for 13 yards (22-N.Harris). Penalty on PIT-53-K.Green, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q2 · 1:22PIT +9% win prob(1:22) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 22-N.Harris to CIN 4 for 18 yards (30-J.Bates).
Q1 · 7:48CIN +9% win prob(7:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 34-Te.Edmunds at PIT 29. 34-Te.Edmunds to PIT 44 for 15 yards (1-J.Chase; 89-D.Sample).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bengals	Steelers
Offensive plays	39	77
Total yards	272	342 (edge)
Yards per play	7.0 (edge)	4.4
Expected points added / play	0.14 (edge)	-0.17
Success rate	46% (edge)	34%
Dropback rate	49%	82%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.37 (edge)	-0.13
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.08 (edge)	-0.34
Third downs	3/9	9/19 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	4
First downs gained on snaps	11	18 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	4
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Steelers outgained Bengals 342–272 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PIT

Ben RoethlisbergerQB

38/58, 318 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-8.9 expected points added · -5.4% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

14/18, 172 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

8.3 expected points added · +12.1% completion over expected

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

18 att, 90 yds, 0 TD

-1.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PIT

Najee HarrisRB

14 att, 40 yds, 0 TD

-4.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

Najee HarrisRB

14/19 for 102 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 0.5 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

Chase ClaypoolWR

9/15 for 96 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · -1.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PIT	PIT 25	5	9	2:00	Punt
2	CIN	CIN 42	4	14	2:12	Punt
3	PIT	PIT 20	4	3	2:17	Punt
4	CIN	CIN 36	2	6	0:54	Interception
5	PIT	PIT 44	3	2	0:52	Interception
6	CIN	PIT 42	7	47	3:51	Touchdown
7	PIT	PIT 25	10	11	5:30	Punt
8	CIN	CIN 19	5	30	2:48	Punt
9	PIT	PIT 14	16	96	8:32	Touchdown
10	CIN	CIN 25	5	60	0:27	Touchdown
11	PIT	PIT 25	5	2	0:22	Punt
12	CIN	CIN 33	1	0	0:15	End of half
13	CIN	CIN 20	11	70	6:13	Turnover on downs
14	PIT	PIT 25	4	6	0:56	Interception
15	CIN	PIT 19	4	19	1:33	Touchdown
16	PIT	PIT 24	8	37	1:56	Turnover on downs
17	CIN	CIN 32	4	6	2:10	Punt
18	PIT	PIT 4	18	95	9:03	Turnover on downs
19	CIN	CIN 29	5	12	1:44	Punt
20	PIT	PIT 15	12	73	3:23	Turnover on downs
21	CIN	CIN 12	4	8	1:08	Punt
22	PIT	PIT 27	4	8	0:31	Turnover on downs
23	CIN	PIT 35	2	0	1:23	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 96 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	14/18	172	3	1	0	8.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Joe Mixon	18	90	5.0	-1.6
Joe Burrow	5	7	1.4	-2.3
Samaje Perine	1	-1	-1.0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Ja'Marr Chase	4	5	65	2	28%	7.5
Tyler Boyd	4	6	36	1	33%	-2.3
Chris Evans	2	2	26	0	11%	1.8
Mike Thomas	1	1	19	0	6%	1.2
Auden Tate	1	1	14	0	6%	1.0
Samaje Perine	1	1	8	0	6%	0.4
Joe Mixon	1	1	4	0	6%	-0.9
C.J. Uzomah	0	1	0	0	6%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Logan Wilson	3	8	0.0	2	2
Jessie Bates	6	3	0.0	0	0
Eli Apple	4	4	0.0	0	1
Germaine Pratt	2	4	0.0	0	0
Akeem Davis-Gaither	4	2	0.0	0	0
Darius Phillips	3	2	0.0	0	0
Sam Hubbard	2	3	1.0	0	0
Mike Hilton	2	2	0.0	0	0
Vonn Bell	3	1	0.0	0	1
Jordan Evans	1	1	0.0	0	0

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ben Roethlisberger	38/58	318	1	2	4	-8.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Najee Harris	14	40	2.9	0	-4.8
Ben Roethlisberger	1	5	5.0	0	0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Najee Harris	14	19	102	0	33%	0.5
Chase Claypool	9	15	96	0	26%	-1.9
Ray-Ray McCloud	3	4	33	0	7%	2.0
JuJu Smith-Schuster	3	4	25	0	7%	-4.1
Pat Freiermuth	3	5	22	1	9%	2.3
James Washington	3	5	20	0	9%	-1.7
Cody White	2	2	17	0	3%	1.5
Derek Watt	1	1	3	0	2%	-0.1
Eric Ebron	0	3	0	0	5%	-2.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Joe Schobert	4	1	0	0
Chris Wormley	2	2	0	0
Minkah Fitzpatrick	3	1	0	0
Terrell Edmunds	1	3	1	1
Tre Norwood	3	0	0	0
Cameron Sutton	2	0	0	0
Derrek Tuszka	1	1	0	0
Joe Haden	1	1	0	0
Melvin Ingram	1	1	0	0
Arthur Maulet	2	0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PIT -2.5
Closing total: 42.5
CIN moneyline: +126
PIT moneyline: -140

Steelers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 34 — under by 8.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Heinz Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 67°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: CIN 7 days · PIT 7 days
Coaches: Zac Taylor vs Mike Tomlin

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.