2021 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 26, 2021 · Levi's Stadium

Green Bay PackersWinner

San Francisco 49ers

SF -3.5 upsetO 50.5 ✓15 mph wind49ers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Green Bay Packers 30–28 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, SF +47% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:03GB — SF GB ball · 2nd & 10GB 53%

(:03) 2-M.Crosby 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:03SF +47% win prob(:03) 2-M.Crosby 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.
Q4 · 0:16SF +29% win prob(:16) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams to SF 33 for 17 yards (29-T.Hufanga). Caught at SF 33. 0-YAC
Q4 · 5:08GB +28% win prob(5:08) 10-J.Garoppolo sacked at SF 46 for -10 yards (97-K.Clark). FUMBLES (97-K.Clark), RECOVERED by GB-59-D.Campbell at SF 41. 59-D.Campbell to SF 38 for 3 yards (69-M.McGlinchey). GB-97-K.Clark credited with a Sack, but not a Forced Fumble.
Q4 · 2:29SF +24% win prob(2:29) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle to GB 36 for 39 yards (23-J.Alexander). Caught at SF 37. 27-YAC

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Packers	49ers
Offensive plays	57	65
Total yards	353 (edge)	298
Yards per play	6.2 (edge)	4.6
Expected points added / play	0.12 (edge)	0.04
Success rate	47%	48% (edge)
Dropback rate	56%	68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.23 (edge)	0.02
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.01	0.10 (edge)
Third downs	5/11	7/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	18	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	4
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs 0.04.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

23/33, 261 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

7.6 expected points added · +15.7% completion over expected

Passing · SF

Jimmy GaroppoloQB

25/40, 257 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

0.7 expected points added · -2.1% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

Aaron JonesRB

19 att, 82 yds, 1 TD

0.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Trey SermonRB

10 att, 31 yds, 1 TD

-2.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Davante AdamsWR

12/18 for 132 yds, 1 TD

58% of team targets · 4.8 expected points added

Receiving · SF

George KittleTE

7/9 for 92 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · -0.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	GB	GB 25	9	54	4:54	Turnover on downs
2	SF	SF 25	7	16	2:41	Punt
3	GB	GB 20	8	80	4:06	Touchdown
4	SF	SF 25	5	9	1:28	Punt
5	GB	GB 10	6	0	3:00	Punt
6	SF	SF 14	1	0	0:15	Interception
7	GB	SF 32	6	29	3:16	Turnover on downs
8	SF	SF 4	11	47	5:32	Punt
9	GB	GB 13	10	60	3:46	Touchdown
10	SF	GB 32	10	27	1:02	Touchdown
11	SF	SF 17	15	83	7:19	Touchdown
12	GB	GB 23	5	8	1:43	Punt
13	SF	SF 28	4	7	1:34	Punt
14	GB	GB 14	11	62	5:57	Touchdown
15	SF	SF 19	11	44	5:39	Touchdown
16	GB	GB 25	5	0	0:30	Punt
17	SF	SF 26	5	-10	2:20	Fumble
18	GB	SF 38	5	18	2:19	Turnover on downs
19	SF	SF 25	10	75	2:02	Touchdown
20	GB	GB 25	7	42	0:37	Turnover on downs

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 83 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	23/33	261	2	0	1	7.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Aaron Jones	19	82	4.3	1	0.2
A.J. Dillon	6	18	3.0	0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Davante Adams	12	18	132	1	58%	4.8
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	3	4	59	1	13%	5.1
Allen Lazard	1	1	42	0	3%	3.8
Aaron Jones	2	2	14	0	6%	0.2
A.J. Dillon	2	2	8	0	6%	-0.3
Robert Tonyan	1	1	6	0	3%	0.8
Josiah Deguara	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.2
Randall Cobb	0	1	0	0	3%	-4.0
Aaron Rodgers	1	1	-4	0	3%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
De'Vondre Campbell	6	6	0.0	0	0
Jaire Alexander	4	1	0.0	1	3
Darnell Savage	5	0	0.0	0	1
Eric Stokes	1	4	0.0	0	1
Adrian Amos	4	0	0.0	0	0
Preston Smith	3	1	1.0	0	0
Oren Burks	2	1	0.5	0	0
Ty Summers	3	0	0.0	0	0
Krys Barnes	1	2	0.0	0	0
Henry Black	2	1	0.0	0	0

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jimmy Garoppolo	25/40	257	2	1	4	0.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Trey Sermon	10	31	3.1	1	-2.0
Kyle Juszczyk	5	14	2.8	0	0.2
George Kittle	1	9	9.0	0	0.9
Brandon Aiyuk	1	8	8.0	0	0.5
Jimmy Garoppolo	1	4	4.0	0	-0.1
Trey Lance	1	1	1.0	1	3.7
Deebo Samuel	2	0	0.0	0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
George Kittle	7	9	92	0	24%	-0.1
Deebo Samuel	5	10	52	0	26%	3.6
Kyle Juszczyk	4	4	37	1	11%	5.5
Brandon Aiyuk	4	6	37	1	16%	2.8
Mohamed Sanu	3	6	36	0	16%	-1.1
Trey Sermon	2	3	3	0	8%	0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Azeez Al-Shaair	5	5	0
Fred Warner	5	4	0
Javon Kinlaw	1	5	0
Emmanuel Moseley	5	1	2
Jimmie Ward	4	0	0
Jaquiski Tartt	3	1	0
Kentavius Street	1	2	0
Nick Bosa	2	1	0
Dontae Johnson	2	1	0
Zach Kerr	1	1	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -3.5
Closing total: 50.5
GB moneyline: +160
SF moneyline: -179

49ers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 50.5; the game landed 58 — over by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 69°F, wind 15 mph
Referee: Jerome Boger
Rest: GB 6 days · SF 7 days
Coaches: Matt LaFleur vs Kyle Shanahan

Wind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.