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Green Bay Packers 30 at San Francisco 49ers 28. Final.
49ers -3.5 upsetO 50.5 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 3
Green Bay Packers 30, 49ers 28 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:03, 2nd and 10, on Mason Crosby — 47.5 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:03 · 2nd and 10
Mason Crosby
Packers
(:03) 2-M.Crosby 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.
49ers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Green Bay Packers 30–28 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, Packers +47.5% win probability on one snap.
47.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jimmy GaroppoloPackersQ4 5:08(5:08) 10-J.Garoppolo sacked at SF 46 for -10 yards (97-K.Clark). FUMBLES (97-K.Clark), RECOVERED by GB-59-D.Campbell at SF 41. 59-D.Campbell to SF 38 for 3 yards (69-M.McGlinchey). GB-97-K.Clark credited with a Sack, but not a Forced Fumble.
27.6pts
Davante AdamsPackersQ4 0:16(:16) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams to SF 33 for 17 yards (29-T.Hufanga). Caught at SF 33. 0-YAC
28.9pts
What separated them
Red zone
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 4 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Packers at 3 touchdowns on 6 trips.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Packers won this one — no giveaways, against 49ers at 2 giveaways.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Packers won this one — 6 chunk plays, against 49ers at 2 chunk plays.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 11 on third down, against Packers at 5 of 11 on third down.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Packers.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Packers164 of 176 plays carry both curves
(:03) 2-M.Crosby 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.
Swing −47.5 for 49ersExpected points −1.09 for 49ersThe model had Packers 9 points higher than the market did.play 175
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:03SF +47% win prob(:03) 2-M.Crosby 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.
4th · 0:16SF +29% win prob(:16) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams to SF 33 for 17 yards (29-T.Hufanga). Caught at SF 33. 0-YAC
4th · 5:08GB +28% win prob(5:08) 10-J.Garoppolo sacked at SF 46 for -10 yards (97-K.Clark). FUMBLES (97-K.Clark), RECOVERED by GB-59-D.Campbell at SF 41. 59-D.Campbell to SF 38 for 3 yards (69-M.McGlinchey). GB-97-K.Clark credited with a Sack, but not a Forced Fumble.
4th · 2:29SF +24% win prob(2:29) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle to GB 36 for 39 yards (23-J.Alexander). Caught at SF 37. 27-YAC
4th · 1:53SF +20% win prob(1:53) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 19-D.Samuel to GB 24 for 12 yards (23-J.Alexander) [97-K.Clark]. Caught at GB 24. 0-YAC
4th · 0:43SF +15% win prob(:43) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 44-K.Juszczyk for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at GB 7. 7-YAC
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Mason Crosby's 51-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st10:11Mason Crosby·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap H.Bradley+33–0
4th2:43Mason Crosby·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap H.Bradley+327–21
4th0:43Kyle Juszczyk·12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom Jimmy Garoppolofrom Jimmy Garoppolo+727–28
4th0:03Mason Crosby·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap H.BradleyLead never changed again+330–28
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Packerscategory by category49ers
Packers5–449ers
353Total yards298
6.2Yards per play4.6
47%Success rate48%
45%Third-down rate64%
3Red-zone touchdowns4
6Explosive plays2
18First downs21
1Sacks taken4
0Turnovers2
The read
Packers ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.12Packers: +0.12 expected points added per play
+0.0449ers: +0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.23Packers: +0.23 expected points added per play
+0.0249ers: +0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.01Packers: −0.01 expected points added per play
+0.1049ers: +0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 57 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against 49ers’s 65 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Packers 6, 49ers 4.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs 0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
GB's sack or hit rate, 22.7%, sat 9.5 points above their season number of 13.3% — they got home by 2.1 times their own 4.6-point weekly swing.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 17 pts
off script — got home · +9.5 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (+2.06× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
49ers6.3%
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.6 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−1.42× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteGB's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 22.7%, 9.5 points above their season mean of 13.3% and 2.1 times their own 4.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 2 never used
70Royce NewmanT · Every snap100%63 snaps
73Yosuah NijmanT · Every snap100%63 snaps
76Jon RunyanG · Every snap100%63 snaps
71Josh MyersC · Every snap100%63 snaps
77Billy TurnerT · Every snap100%63 snaps
12Aaron RodgersQB · Every snap100%63 snaps
17Davante AdamsWR · Full-time89%56 snaps
85Robert TonyanTE · Heavy rotation73%46 snaps
33Aaron JonesRB · Heavy rotation73%46 snaps
13Allen LazardWR · Heavy rotation67%42 snaps
83Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Heavy rotation63%40 snaps
89Marcedes LewisTE · Rotational40%25 snaps
18Randall CobbWR · Rotational33%21 snaps
28A.J. DillonRB · Rotational29%18 snaps
81Josiah DeguaraTE · Rotational27%17 snaps
86Malik TaylorWR · Situational3%2 snaps
8Amari RodgersWR · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 4
Kevin KingCBVernon ScottFSElgton JenkinsGLadarius HamiltonOLB
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Jake HansonCJordan LoveQB
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 2 never used
69Mike McGlincheyT · Every snap100%70 snaps
60Daniel BrunskillG · Every snap100%70 snaps
75Laken TomlinsonG · Every snap100%70 snaps
85George KittleTE · Every snap100%70 snaps
50Alex MackC · Every snap100%70 snaps
71Trent WilliamsT · Every snap100%70 snaps
10Jimmy GaroppoloQB · Full-time96%67 snaps
19Deebo SamuelWR · Full-time90%63 snaps
11Brandon AiyukWR · Full-time86%60 snaps
44Kyle JuszczykFB · Heavy rotation69%48 snaps
6Mohamed SanuWR · Heavy rotation64%45 snaps
28Trey SermonRB · Heavy rotation59%41 snaps
82Ross DwelleyTE · Situational14%10 snaps
89Charlie WoernerTE · Situational11%8 snaps
15Jauan JenningsWR · Situational4%3 snaps
5Trey LanceQB · Situational4%3 snaps
81Trent SherfieldWR · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 4
Dre KirkpatrickCBAmbry ThomasCBAaron BanksGElijah MitchellRB
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Mason Crosby+39% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:03) 2-M.Crosby 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.
Q4 0:03 · Packers · 2nd & 10 at SF 33 · gained nothing · +1.09 EP · +38.7% win probability
162 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 87 yards from the GB 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
+0.16
Success rate
47%
Yards
651
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.0583%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.1563%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24+0.0746%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10-0.1540%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.5160%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
49ers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
49ers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.2 seconds
Packers349ers0
Field goal10 plays, from the Packers 25 to the 49ers 15
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 41
Packers949ers0
Packers1049ers0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Packers 20 to the 49ers 1
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 34
The period ended5 plays, from the Packers 10 to the Packers 41
2nd quarter53 plays
Punt3 plays
Intercepted1 play
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the 49ers 32 to the 49ers 3
Punt12 plays, from the 49ers 4 to the Packers 49
Packers1649ers0
Packers1749ers0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Packers 13 to the 49ers 3
Packers1749ers6
Packers1749ers7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Packers 32 to the Packers 1
3rd quarter33 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Packers1749ers13
Packers1749ers14
Touchdown15 plays, from the 49ers 17 to the Packers 8
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 23 to the Packers 31
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 28 to the 49ers 35
The period ended9 plays, from the Packers 14 to the 49ers 30
4th quarter54 plays
Packers2349ers14
Packers2449ers14
Touchdown4 plays, from the 49ers 18 to the 49ers 12
Packers2449ers20
Packers2449ers21
Touchdown13 plays, from the 49ers 19 to the Packers 1
Punt6 plays
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost6 plays, from the 49ers 26 to the Packers 44
Packers2749ers21
Field goal6 plays, from the 49ers 38 to the 49ers 20
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Packers2749ers27
Packers2749ers28
Touchdown10 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Packers 12
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runDigCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Packers3049ers28
Field goal8 plays, from the Packers 25 to the 49ers 33
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
49ers -3.5
Closing total
50.5
Packers moneyline
+160
49ers moneyline
-179
49ers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 50.5; the game landed 58 — over by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 69°F at kickoff; breezy at 12 mph out of the north-west; clear.
Referee
Jerome Boger
Rest
Packers 6 days · 49ers 7 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs Kyle Shanahan
1st · 13:54SF +11% win prob(13:54) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass deep right to 13-A.Lazard pushed ob at SF 26 for 42 yards (24-K.Williams). Caught at SF 45. 19-YAC
2nd · 13:58SF +10% win prob(13:58) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 51 yards to SF 14, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds.
