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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 26, 2021 · Nissan Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 3
It turned at Q3 2:46, 1st and 10, on Nick Westbrook-Ikhine — 15.7 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 2:46 · 1st and 10
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
Colts
(2:46) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine to IND 6 for 13 yards (53-D.Leonard, 26-R.Ya-Sin). FUMBLES (26-R.Ya-Sin), RECOVERED by IND-26-R.Ya-Sin at IND 5. 26-R.Ya-Sin pushed ob at IND 18 for 13 yards (17-R.Tannehill).
Tennessee Titans 25–16. Biggest swing: Q3 2:46, Colts +15.7% win probability on one snap.
15.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Colts owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Titans at 3 giveaways.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Titans won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Colts at 3 chunk plays.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Titans won this one — 6 of 12 on third down, against Colts at 3 of 12 on third down.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Colts owned this one and still lost it — +0.33 expected points per carry, against Titans at -0.02 expected points per carry.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 5.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
(2:46) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine to IND 6 for 13 yards (53-D.Leonard, 26-R.Ya-Sin). FUMBLES (26-R.Ya-Sin), RECOVERED by IND-26-R.Ya-Sin at IND 5. 26-R.Ya-Sin pushed ob at IND 18 for 13 yard
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine's 18-yard touchdown catch with 6:01 left in the 2nd put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine18-yd TD catch18-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan TannehillLead never changed again+77–14
Jeremy McNichols10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehill · two-point good+813–22
Rodrigo Blankenship24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+316–228 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Coltscategory by categoryTitans
Titans ahead 8–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Colts, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 57 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Titans’s 64 at 47%. Red-zone trips: Colts 3, Titans 5.
Titans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.05.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TEN's sack or hit rate, 23.1%, sat 10.6 points above their season number of 12.5% — they got home by 2.1 times their own 5.1-point weekly swing.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Colts1.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.7 vs their -4.6 pts, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (+0.68× that swing) · 57 snaps
Titans-11.5 ptsinside their normal wobble · −3.5 vs their -8.0 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.57× that swing) · 63 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 13% to 89%
Tendencies room →Colts65.1%inside their normal wobble · +14.1 vs their 51.0%, and they swing ±14.9 week to week (+0.94× that swing) · 43 early downs
Titans38.0%inside their normal wobble · −8.1 vs their 46.1%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 50 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18% to 121%
Fourth Down room →Colts66.7%inside their normal wobble · +15.0 vs their 51.7%, and they swing ±27.1 week to week (+0.55× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Titans—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 49.2%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 32%
Tendencies room →Colts6.7%inside their normal wobble · −6.1 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Titans23.1%off script — got home · +10.6 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+2.07× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
TEN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 23.1%, 10.6 points above their season mean of 12.5% and 2.1 times their own 5.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · TEN
18/27, 197 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
3.3 expected points added · +1.2% completion over expected
Passing · IND
19/37, 194 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-8.6 expected points added · -7.7% completion over expected
Receiving · IND
6/12 for 68 yds, 0 TD
35% of team targets · -1.4 expected points added
Receiving · IND
5/6 for 54 yds, 0 TD
18% of team targets · 2.6 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Nyheim Miller-Hines banked 7.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan TannehillQB · Starter QB | 21.5 | +4.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/27, 197 yd, 3 TD, 2 INT · 5 car, 56 yd |
| Derrick HenryRB · Bell Cow Back | 19.4 | −0.2 | 72% | 53% | 12% | 0% | 28 car, 113 yd · 3/3, 31 yd |
| Nyheim Miller-HinesRB · Committee Back | 18.9 | +7.5 | 56% | 59% | 18% | 0% | 6 car, 25 yd, 1 TD · 5/6, 54 yd |
| Michael PittmanWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.3 | −7.5 | 93% | 100% | 35% | 63% | 1 car, 5 yd · 6/12, 68 yd |
| Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Rotational Receiver | 13.3 | +6.5 | 78% | 73% | 15% | 18% | 4/4, 53 yd, 1 TD |
| Jeremy McNicholsRB | 8.6 | +4.6 | 26% | 40% | 8% | 3% | 2 car, 6 yd · 1/2, 10 yd, 1 TD |
| Jonathan TaylorRB · Committee Back | 8.2 | +2.7 | 48% | 44% | 3% | 0% | 10 car, 64 yd · 1/1, 8 yd |
| Carson WentzQB · Starter QB | 7.8 | −7.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/37, 194 yd |
| Julio JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.7 | −0.3 | 50% | 50% | 15% | 31% | 3/4, 47 yd |
| Chester RogersWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.6 | +2.5 | 41% | 50% | 8% | 6% | 1/2, 6 yd, 1 TD |
| Geoff SwaimTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.7 | −1.2 | 65% | 47% | 15% | 4% | 3/4, 27 yd |
| Zach PascalWR · Featured Receiver | 5.1 | −10.1 | 89% | 100% | 21% | 35% | 2/7, 31 yd |
| Mo Alie-CoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | +0.6 | 46% | 44% | 6% | 0% | 2/2, 14 yd |
| Parris CampbellWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | −2.2 | 80% | 87% | 12% | 9% | 2/4, 9 yd |
| Cameron BatsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | +0.3 | 40% | 40% | 4% | 7% | 1/1, 13 yd |
| Jack DoyleTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −1.0 | 57% | 49% | 6% | 6% | 1/2, 10 yd |
| MyCole PruittTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.1 | 54% | 53% | 4% | 4% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Tommy HudsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −1.6 | 31% | 23% | 8% | 0% | 1/2, 3 yd |
| A.J. BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.3 | −4.1 | 12% | 13% | 8% | 19% | 1 car, 3 yd · 0/2, 0 yd |
| Mekhi SargentRB | 0.2 | −0.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Jordan WilkinsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Racey McMathWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.3 | 25% | 23% | 4% | 7% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Ashton DulinWR · Rotational Receiver | -0.7 | −1.4 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(2:46) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine to IND 6 for 13 yards (53-D.Leonard, 26-R.Ya-Sin). FUMBLES (26-R.Ya-Sin), RECOVERED by IND-26-R.Ya-Sin at IND 5. 26-R.Ya-Sin pushed ob at IND 18 for 13 yards (17-R.Tannehill).
Q3 2:46 · Titans · 1st & 10 at IND 19 · gained 13 · -5.19 EP · −20.0% win probability
152 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 165 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 76 yards from the TEN 18 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Colts0
Titans6Colts0Titans7Colts6Titans7Colts7Titans7Colts7Titans13Colts7Titans14Colts10Titans14Colts13Titans14Colts13Titans20Colts13Titans22Colts16Titans22Colts16Titans25Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Colts at Titans, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 19/37 | 194 | 0 | 0 | 2 | −8.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 10 | 64 | 6.4 | 0 | +6.9 |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 1 | +0.6 |
| Michael Pittman | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 6 | 12 | 68 | 0 | 35% | −1.4 |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 5 | 6 | 54 | 0 | 18% | +2.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Blackmon | 11 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Okereke | 5 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Al-Quadin Muhammad | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Moore |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 18/27 | 197 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_03_IND_TEN
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Titans closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 9.
Total closed 47; the game landed 41 — under by 6.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Ashton Dulin | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Zach Pascal | 2 | 7 | 31 | 0 | 21% | −2.3 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 6% | +1.0 |
| Jack Doyle | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 6% | −0.5 |
| Parris Campbell | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 12% | −2.4 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.3 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| Shaquille Leonard | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Khari Willis | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeForest Buckner | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zaire Franklin | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rock Ya-Sin | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Antwaun Woods | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 |
| 113 |
| 4.0 |
| 0 |
| −1.4 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 5 | 56 | 11.2 | 0 | +5.8 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| A.J. Brown | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Mekhi Sargent | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 4 | 4 | 53 | 1 | 15% | −1.4 |
| Julio Jones | 3 | 4 | 47 | 0 | 15% | +6.0 |
| Derrick Henry | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 12% | +2.8 |
| Geoff Swaim | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 15% | −0.5 |
| Cameron Batson | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 4% | +0.9 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 8% | +1.7 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | +1.0 |
| Chester Rogers | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 8% | −2.3 |
| Tommy Hudson | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8% | −4.6 |
| A.J. Brown | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −2.5 |
| Racey McMath | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Long Jr. | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dane Cruikshank | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Rashaan Evans | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harold Landry | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Kristian Fulton | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kevin Byard | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Olasunkanmi Adeniyi | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeffery Simmons | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Janoris Jenkins | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
