2021 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 26, 2021 · Nissan Stadium

Indianapolis Colts

Tennessee TitansWinner

TEN -4.5 ✓U 47 ✓Titans closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 9.

Tennessee Titans 25–16. Biggest swing: Q3 2:46, IND +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 2:46IND — TEN TEN ball · 1st & 10TEN 79%

(2:46) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine to IND 6 for 13 yards (53-D.Leonard, 26-R.Ya-Sin). FUMBLES (26-R.Ya-Sin), RECOVERED by IND-26-R.Ya-Sin at IND 5. 26-R.Ya-Sin pushed ob at IND 18 for 13 yard

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 2:46IND +16% win prob(2:46) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine to IND 6 for 13 yards (53-D.Leonard, 26-R.Ya-Sin). FUMBLES (26-R.Ya-Sin), RECOVERED by IND-26-R.Ya-Sin at IND 5. 26-R.Ya-Sin pushed ob at IND 18 for 13 yards (17-R.Tannehill).
Q2 · 1:03IND +14% win prob(1:03) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right intended for 80-C.Rogers INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Moore at IND 21. 23-K.Moore ran ob at TEN 47 for 32 yards (2-J.Jones).
Q4 · 13:01TEN +12% win prob(13:01) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 28-J.McNichols for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 4:56TEN +10% win prob(4:56) 6-B.Kern punts 56 yards to IND 21, Center-46-M.Cox. 21-N.Hines to IND 32 for 11 yards (44-T.Carter). PENALTY on IND-44-Z.Franklin, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 23 - No Play.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Colts	Titans
Offensive plays	57	64
Total yards	265	372 (edge)
Yards per play	4.6	5.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.05	0.01 (edge)
Success rate	39%	44% (edge)
Dropback rate	68%	47%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.22	0.05 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.33 (edge)	-0.02
Third downs	3/12	6/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	15	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	3

Titans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.05.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TEN

Ryan TannehillQB

18/27, 197 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

3.3 expected points added · +1.2% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Carson WentzQB

19/37, 194 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-8.6 expected points added · -7.7% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

28 att, 113 yds, 0 TD

-1.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

10 att, 64 yds, 0 TD

6.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · IND

Michael PittmanWR

6/12 for 68 yds, 0 TD

35% of team targets · -1.4 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Nyheim Miller-HinesRB

5/6 for 54 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 2.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TEN	TEN 25	5	-8	1:50	Punt
2	IND	IND 41	4	2	1:02	Punt
3	TEN	TEN 29	12	71	5:34	Touchdown
4	IND	IND 19	6	33	1:55	Punt
5	TEN	TEN 26	8	18	4:28	Interception
6	IND	IND 47	10	53	4:52	Touchdown
7	TEN	TEN 25	10	75	4:23	Touchdown
8	IND	IND 30	5	-3	1:50	Punt
9	TEN	TEN 17	8	57	3:17	Interception
10	IND	TEN 47	4	17	0:49	Turnover on downs
11	IND	IND 25	18	57	8:34	Turnover on downs
12	TEN	TEN 18	8	61	3:51	Fumble
13	IND	IND 18	6	4	2:15	Punt
14	TEN	TEN 41	6	31	2:24	Touchdown
15	IND	IND 25	8	65	2:36	Turnover on downs
16	TEN	TEN 19	15	67	7:22	Turnover on downs
17	IND	IND 25	10	37	2:01	Turnover on downs
18	TEN	TEN 41	2	0	0:57	End of game

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 75 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Carson Wentz	19/37	194	0	0	2	-8.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jonathan Taylor	10	64	6.4	0	6.9
Nyheim Miller-Hines	6	25	4.2	1	0.6
Michael Pittman	1	5	5.0	0	-0.1
Ashton Dulin	1	-7	-7.0	0	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Pittman	6	12	68	35%	-1.4
Nyheim Miller-Hines	5	6	54	18%	2.6
Zach Pascal	2	7	31	21%	-2.3
Mo Alie-Cox	2	2	14	6%	1.0
Jack Doyle	1	2	10	6%	-0.5
Parris Campbell	2	4	9	12%	-2.4
Jonathan Taylor	1	1	8	3%	0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Julian Blackmon	11	0	0.0	0	0
Bobby Okereke	5	2	1.0	0	0
Al-Quadin Muhammad	5	2	0.0	0	0
Kenny Moore	6	0	0.0	1	2
Shaquille Leonard	2	3	0.0	1	1
Khari Willis	4	1	0.0	0	0
DeForest Buckner	1	3	0.0	0	0
Zaire Franklin	2	0	0.0	0	0
Rock Ya-Sin	1	1	0.0	0	0
Antwaun Woods	1	1	0.0	0	0

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	18/27	197	3	2	1	3.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Derrick Henry	28	113	4.0	-1.4
Ryan Tannehill	5	56	11.2	5.8
Jeremy McNichols	2	6	3.0	-0.2
A.J. Brown	1	3	3.0	-0.3
Mekhi Sargent	1	2	2.0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	4	4	53	1	15%	-1.4
Julio Jones	3	4	47	0	15%	6.0
Derrick Henry	3	3	31	0	12%	2.8
Geoff Swaim	3	4	27	0	15%	-0.5
Cameron Batson	1	1	13	0	4%	0.9
Jeremy McNichols	1	2	10	1	8%	1.7
MyCole Pruitt	1	1	7	0	4%	1.0
Chester Rogers	1	2	6	1	8%	-2.3
Tommy Hudson	1	2	3	0	8%	-4.6
A.J. Brown	0	2	0	0	8%	-2.5
Racey McMath	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
David Long Jr.	4	3	0.0	0
Dane Cruikshank	4	2	0.0	1
Rashaan Evans	2	4	0.0	0
Harold Landry	1	3	0.5	0
Kristian Fulton	2	2	0.0	1
Kevin Byard	2	1	0.0	2
Olasunkanmi Adeniyi	1	2	1.5	0
Jeffery Simmons	2	1	0.0	1
Janoris Jenkins	1	2	0.0	1
Ryan Tannehill	1	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TEN -4.5
Closing total: 47
IND moneyline: +175
TEN moneyline: -196

Titans closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 9.

Total closed 47; the game landed 41 — under by 6.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 72°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: IND 7 days · TEN 7 days
Coaches: Frank Reich vs Mike Vrabel

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.