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2021 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 26, 2021 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Final
ChargersLos Angeles30
BY 6final margin
ChiefsKansas City24
Los Angeles Chargers 30 at Kansas City Chiefs 24. Final.
Chiefs -6.5 upset
The verdict · 2021 Week 3
Los Angeles Chargers 30, Chiefs 24 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 13:44, 2nd and 11, on Mike Williams — 22.1 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 13:44 · 2nd and 11
Mike Williams
Chargers
(13:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 81-M.Williams for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-C.Jones].
U 55 ✓
15.1 mph wind
Chiefs closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Los Angeles Chargers 30–24. Biggest swing: Q4 13:44, Chargers +22.1% win probability on one snap. Played in 15.1 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
22.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Alohi GilmanChargersQ4 1:55(1:55) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 32-A.Gilman at LAC 41. 32-A.Gilman to LAC 41 for no gain.
20.9pts
Justin HerbertChargersQ4 0:48(:48) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 15-J.Guyton. PENALTY on KC-30-D.Baker, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, enforced at KC 35 - No Play.
18.5pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Chargers won this one — no giveaways, against Chiefs at 4 giveaways.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Chiefs owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 10 on third down, against Chargers at 4 of 11 on third down.
Chiefsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Chiefs owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Chargers at 5 chunk plays.
Chiefsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Chargers won this one — +0.38 expected points per dropback, against Chiefs at +0.13 expected points per dropback.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Chargers174 of 185 plays carry both curves
(13:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 81-M.Williams for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-C.Jones].
Swing −22.1 for ChiefsExpected points −3.28 for ChiefsThe model had Chargers 15 points higher than the market did.play 130
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 13:44KC +22% win prob(13:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 81-M.Williams for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-C.Jones].
4th · 1:55LAC +21% win prob(1:55) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 32-A.Gilman at LAC 41. 32-A.Gilman to LAC 41 for no gain.
4th · 0:48KC +19% win prob(:48) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 15-J.Guyton. PENALTY on KC-30-D.Baker, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, enforced at KC 35 - No Play.
4th · 1:04KC +18% win prob(1:04) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 13-K.Allen to KC 36 for 15 yards (32-T.Mathieu).
4th · 3:23KC +16% win prob(3:23) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 13-K.Allen [32-T.Mathieu]. PENALTY on KC-38-L.Sneed, Defensive Pass Interference, 4 yards, enforced at KC 5 - No Play.
4th · 6:38KC +14% win prob(6:38) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 81-M.Williams to KC 32 for 43 yards (49-D.Sorensen).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Mike Williams's 4-yard touchdown catch with 0:36 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
2nd14:01Keenan Allen·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Justin Herbertfrom Justin Herbert · kick no good, wide left+66–0
4th6:48Mecole Hardman·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+721–24
4th2:17Tristan Vizcaino·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder T.Long · snap M.Overton+324–24
4th0:36Mike Williams·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Justin Herbertfrom Justin Herbert · kick no good, wide leftLead never changed again+630–24
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chargerscategory by categoryChiefs
Chargers5–4Chiefs
355Total yards437
5.8Yards per play5.8
54%Success rate54%
36%Third-down rate60%
4Red-zone touchdowns3
5Explosive plays9
20First downs29
1Sacks taken2
0Turnovers4
The read
Chargers ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.23Chargers: +0.23 expected points added per play
+0.07Chiefs: +0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.38Chargers: +0.38 expected points added per play
+0.13Chiefs: +0.13 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.10Chargers: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.05Chiefs: −0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 61 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 76 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 5, Chiefs 4.
NoteChiefs outgained Chargers 437-355 but lost the turnover battle 4-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -12 pts to 24 pts
right on their number · −1.9 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.30× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Chiefs14.3%
right on their number · +1.6 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteKC's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 0.9 pts, 8.3 points below their season mean of 9.2 pts and 1.5 times their own 5.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Chargers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
76Oday AboushiG · Every snap100%66 snaps
70Rashawn SlaterT · Every snap100%66 snaps
74Storm NortonT · Every snap100%66 snaps
71Matt FeilerG · Every snap100%66 snaps
63Corey LinsleyC · Every snap100%66 snaps
10Justin HerbertQB · Every snap100%66 snaps
13Keenan AllenWR · Full-time83%55 snaps
30Austin EkelerRB · Heavy rotation74%49 snaps
81Mike WilliamsWR · Heavy rotation73%48 snaps
87Jared CookTE · Heavy rotation70%46 snaps
15Jalen GuytonWR · Heavy rotation62%41 snaps
89Donald ParhamTE · Rotational47%31 snaps
82Stephen AndersonTE · Situational21%14 snaps
35Larry RountreeRB · Situational17%11 snaps
5Josh PalmerWR · Situational15%10 snaps
40Gabe NabersFB · Situational14%9 snaps
79Trey PipkinsT · Situational14%9 snaps
22Justin JacksonRB · Situational11%7 snaps
Inactive · 7
Chris HarrisCBJustin JonesDTBrenden JaimesGAmen OgbongbemigaILBEaston StickQBJoshua KelleyRBTre' McKittyTE
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Chase DanielQB
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
67Lucas NiangT · Every snap100%79 snaps
57Orlando BrownT · Every snap100%79 snaps
62Joe ThuneyG · Every snap100%79 snaps
52Creed HumphreyC · Every snap100%79 snaps
65Trey SmithG · Every snap100%79 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Every snap100%79 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Full-time87%69 snaps
10Tyreek HillWR · Heavy rotation73%58 snaps
11Demarcus RobinsonWR · Heavy rotation72%57 snaps
17Mecole HardmanWR · Heavy rotation65%51 snaps
25Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB · Heavy rotation62%49 snaps
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Mahomes pass−19% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(2:58) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 10-T.Hill to LAC 14 for 8 yards (20-T.Campbell). FUMBLES (20-T.Campbell), RECOVERED by LAC-43-M.Davis at LAC 14. 43-M.Davis to LAC 34 for 20 yards (65-T.Smith). PENALTY on KC-25-C.Edwards-Helaire, Low Block, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 34.
Q1 2:58 · Chiefs · 2nd & 11 at LAC 22 · gained 8 · -6.71 EP · −18.9% win probability
172 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 185 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 185 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 75 yards from the KC 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
185 of 185 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
185
EPA per play
+0.10
Success rate
48%
Yards
791
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49+0.1173%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.3381%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.0939%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.1758%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.0150%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.1683%
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
185 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
185 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 30
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.2 seconds
Intercepted10 plays, from the Chiefs 8 to the Chargers 29
Punt8 plays, from the Chargers 3 to the Chargers 26
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Fumble lost6 plays, from midfield to the Chargers 21
The period ended7 plays, from the Chargers 49 to the Chiefs 29
2nd quarter48 plays
Chargers6Chiefs0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Chiefs 26 to the Chiefs 4
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chargers 36
Chargers12Chiefs0
Chargers14Chiefs0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chargers 47 to the Chiefs 14
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 30
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 28 to the Chiefs 49
Chargers14Chiefs3
Field goal15 plays, from the Chiefs 14 to the Chargers 16
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter42 plays
Chargers14Chiefs9
Chargers14Chiefs10
Touchdown15 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chargers 2
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 30
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.3 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.3 seconds
Chargers14Chiefs16
Chargers14Chiefs17
Touchdown12 plays, from the Chiefs 30 to the Chargers 10
The period ended10 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chiefs 28
4th quarter58 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Chargers20Chiefs17
Chargers21Chiefs17
Touchdown4 plays, from the Chiefs 28 to the Chiefs 19
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerTwoPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw0.7 seconds
Chargers21Chiefs23
Chargers21Chiefs24
Touchdown14 plays, from the Chiefs 28 to the Chargers 8
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Chargers24Chiefs24
Field goal14 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chiefs 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw6.5 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 27
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Chargers30Chiefs24
Touchdown14 plays, from the Chargers 41 to the Chiefs 4
The period ended8 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chargers 49
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -6.5
Closing total
55
Chargers moneyline
+237
Chiefs moneyline
-273
Chiefs closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 55; the game landed 54 — under by 1.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 82°F at kickoff; windy at 15 mph out of the south-west; clear.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Chargers 7 days · Chiefs 7 days
Coaches
Brandon Staley vs Andy Reid
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
NoteWind at 15.1 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
1st · 2:58LAC +13% win prob(2:58) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 10-T.Hill to LAC 14 for 8 yards (20-T.Campbell). FUMBLES (20-T.Campbell), RECOVERED by LAC-43-M.Davis at LAC 14. 43-M.Davis to LAC 34 for 20 yards (65-T.Smith). PENALTY on KC-25-C.Edwards-Helaire, Low Block, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 34.
2nd · 11:06LAC +11% win prob(11:06) 25-C.Edwards-Helaire up the middle to LAC 29 for 7 yards (24-N.Adderley, 20-T.Campbell). FUMBLES (20-T.Campbell), RECOVERED by LAC-43-M.Davis at LAC 33. 43-M.Davis to LAC 47 for 14 yards (17-M.Hardman).
