2021 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 26, 2021 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Los Angeles ChargersWinner

Kansas City Chiefs

KC -6.5 upsetU 55 ✓19 mph windChiefs closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Los Angeles Chargers 30–24. Biggest swing: Q4 13:44, KC +22% win probability on one snap. Played in 19 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 13:44LAC — KC LAC ball · 2nd & 11KC 66%

(13:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 81-M.Williams for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-C.Jones].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 13:44KC +22% win prob(13:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 81-M.Williams for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-C.Jones].
Q4 · 1:55LAC +21% win prob(1:55) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 32-A.Gilman at LAC 41. 32-A.Gilman to LAC 41 for no gain.
Q4 · 0:48KC +19% win prob(:48) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 15-J.Guyton. PENALTY on KC-30-D.Baker, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, enforced at KC 35 - No Play.
Q4 · 1:04KC +18% win prob(1:04) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 13-K.Allen to KC 36 for 15 yards (32-T.Mathieu).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chargers	Chiefs
Offensive plays	61	76
Total yards	355	437 (edge)
Yards per play	5.8 (edge)	5.8
Expected points added / play	0.23 (edge)	0.07
Success rate	54% (edge)	54%
Dropback rate	69%	66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.38 (edge)	0.13
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.10	-0.05 (edge)
Third downs	4/11	6/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	20	29 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	0 (edge)	4

Chiefs outgained Chargers 437–355 but lost the turnover battle 4–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

26/38, 281 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

16.2 expected points added · +8.0% completion over expected

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

27/44, 260 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

11.1 expected points added · +1.2% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB

17 att, 100 yds, 0 TD

-3.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

Austin EkelerRB

11 att, 55 yds, 0 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Mike WilliamsWR

7/9 for 122 yds, 2 TD

26% of team targets · 12.1 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

7/11 for 104 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 6.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LAC	LAC 25	5	5	2:13	Punt
2	KC	KC 8	10	63	4:31	Interception
3	LAC	LAC 3	7	23	2:40	Punt
4	KC	50	5	31	2:48	Fumble
5	LAC	LAC 49	10	51	3:51	Touchdown
6	KC	KC 25	7	42	3:02	Fumble
7	LAC	LAC 47	7	55	3:19	Touchdown
8	KC	KC 25	5	-4	2:02	Punt
9	LAC	LAC 28	6	23	3:01	Punt
10	KC	KC 14	11	75	2:14	Turnover on downs
11	LAC	LAC 9	2	0	0:19	End of half
12	KC	KC 25	14	70	5:45	Touchdown
13	LAC	LAC 25	5	-1	1:31	Punt
14	KC	KC 30	11	65	4:09	Touchdown
15	LAC	LAC 25	13	75	4:56	Touchdown
16	KC	KC 28	14	72	6:56	Touchdown
17	LAC	LAC 25	11	75	4:29	Turnover on downs
18	KC	KC 25	4	2	0:32	Interception
19	LAC	LAC 41	9	49	1:10	Touchdown
20	KC	KC 25	6	21	0:32	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 75 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Herbert	26/38	281	4	0	1	16.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Austin Ekeler	11	55	5.0	0.5
Justin Herbert	4	16	4.0	0.5
Jalen Guyton	1	3	3.0	-0.2
Larry Rountree	4	3	0.8	-1.6
Justin Jackson	2	0	0.0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Williams	7	9	122	2	26%	12.1
Austin Ekeler	6	6	52	1	17%	4.9
Keenan Allen	8	12	50	1	34%	2.4
Jared Cook	2	3	27	0	9%	1.7
Donald Parham	1	1	19	0	3%	1.6
Gabe Nabers	2	2	11	0	6%	-0.0
Jalen Guyton	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.5
Larry Rountree	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Nasir Adderley	7	2	0.0	0	0
Kyzir White	5	3	1.0	0	0
Drue Tranquill	6	2	0.5	0	0
Linval Joseph	3	5	0.0	0	0
Alohi Gilman	7	0	0.0	1	1
Derwin James	4	1	0.0	0	0
Tevaughn Campbell	3	1	0.0	0	2
Chris Rumph	2	1	0.0	0	0
Joey Bosa	1	2	0.5	0	0
Michael Davis	2	1	0.0	0	0

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	27/44	260	3	2	2	11.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	17	100	5.9	-3.5
Patrick Mahomes	4	45	11.3	2.5
Darrel Williams	7	28	4.0	0.7
Tyreek Hill	1	11	11.0	0.6
Mecole Hardman	1	2	2.0	1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Kelce	7	11	104	0	28%	6.1
Tyreek Hill	5	7	56	0	18%	-1.6
Mecole Hardman	3	4	33	1	10%	3.8
Demarcus Robinson	2	2	17	0	5%	0.7
Byron Pringle	2	6	12	0	15%	-1.0
Darrel Williams	2	3	11	0	8%	0.2
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	2	2	9	1	5%	1.4
Joseph Fortson	2	2	7	1	5%	1.8
Blake Bell	1	1	6	0	3%	0.7
Noah Gray	1	1	5	0	3%	0.1
Marcus Kemp	0	1	0	0	3%	-3.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Nick Bolton	3	4	0
Daniel Sorensen	5	2	1
L'Jarius Sneed	5	1	0
Tyrann Mathieu	5	0	0
Anthony Hitchens	4	1	1
Rashad Fenton	2	2	0
Deandre Baker	3	0	0
Jarran Reed	1	2	0
Ben Niemann	1	2	0
Derrick Nnadi	2	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -6.5
Closing total: 55
LAC moneyline: +237
KC moneyline: -273

Chiefs closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 55; the game landed 54 — under by 1.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 81°F, wind 19 mph
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: LAC 7 days · KC 7 days
Coaches: Brandon Staley vs Andy Reid

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 19 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.