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Las Vegas Raiders 31, Dolphins 28 — on the last possessions.
It turned at OT 6:32, 4th and 9, on Daniel Carlson — 40.6 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 6:32 · 4th and 9
Daniel Carlson
Dolphins
(6:32) 2-D.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Dome
Raiders closed -4, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Las Vegas Raiders 31–28 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 6:32, Dolphins +40.6% win probability on one snap.
40.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Mike GesickiDolphinsOT 5:50(5:50) (Shotgun) 14-J.Brissett pass deep left to 88-M.Gesicki pushed ob at MIA 42 for 27 yards (5-D.Deablo).
38.1pts
Peyton BarberRaidersOT 2:12(2:12) (Shotgun) 31-P.Barber right guard pushed ob at MIA 19 for 27 yards (8-J.Holland). MIA-29-Br.Jones was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
28.8pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Raiders won this one — 12 chunk plays, against Dolphins at 6 chunk plays.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Raiders won this one — 8 of 15 on third down, against Dolphins at 6 of 17 on third down.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Raiders won this one — 46% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Dolphins at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Raiders at 1 giveaway.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Dolphins204 of 224 plays carry both curves
(6:32) 2-D.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Swing −40.6 for RaidersExpected points +0.50 for RaidersModel and market agree here.play 195
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 6:32MIA +41% win prob(6:32) 2-D.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Overtime · 5:50LV +38% win prob(5:50) (Shotgun) 14-J.Brissett pass deep left to 88-M.Gesicki pushed ob at MIA 42 for 27 yards (5-D.Deablo).
Overtime · 2:12LV +29% win prob(2:12) (Shotgun) 31-P.Barber right guard pushed ob at MIA 19 for 27 yards (8-J.Holland). MIA-29-Br.Jones was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
1st · 6:49MIA +28% win prob(6:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right intended for 87-F.Moreau INTERCEPTED by 52-E.Roberts [21-E.Rowe] at MIA 15. 52-E.Roberts for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Overtime · 8:07LV +26% win prob(8:07) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 89-B.Edwards to MIA 21 for 32 yards (27-J.Coleman).
Overtime · 2:43LV +25% win prob(2:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 89-B.Edwards to MIA 46 for 34 yards (29-Br.Jones).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Daniel Carlson's 22-yard field goal with 0:03 left in overtime put Las Vegas Raiders ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Overtime6:32Daniel Carlson·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap T.Sieg+325–28
Overtime2:54Jason Sanders·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder M.Palardy · snap B.Ferguson+328–28
Overtime0:03Daniel Carlson·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap T.SiegLead never changed again+328–31
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Dolphinscategory by categoryRaiders
Dolphins2–7Raiders
332Total yards499
4.3Yards per play6.3
37%Success rate46%
35%Third-down rate53%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
6Explosive plays12
19First downs25
2Sacks taken3
0Turnovers1
The read
Raiders ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Dolphins, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.07Dolphins: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.02Raiders: +0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.01Dolphins: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.14Raiders: +0.14 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.29Dolphins: −0.29 expected points added per play
−0.16Raiders: −0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 78 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Raiders’s 79 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 2, Raiders 6.
NoteRaiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 22 pts
right on their number · +0.9 vs their 18.7%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+0.11× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Raiders10.5%
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.3 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−1.01× that swing) · 57 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLV's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 10.5%, 6.3 points below their season mean of 16.8% and 1.0 times their own 6.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
Daniel Carlson−41% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(6:32) 2-D.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
OT 6:32 · Raiders · 4th & 9 at MIA 20 · gained nothing · +0.50 EP · −40.6% win probability
202 snaps placed · 22 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 224 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 224 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 95 yards from the LV 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
224 of 224 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
224
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
37%
Yards
829
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.0680%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.3666%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR30-0.1947%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22-0.3873%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR14+0.1757%
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-0.530%
Raiders2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR4——
Dolphins0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR3——
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Dolphins1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
224 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
224 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter46 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 28
Punt7 plays, from the Dolphins 32 to the Raiders 47
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Dolphins6Raiders0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Raiders 15 to the Dolphins 21
Dolphins7Raiders0
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 34
Dolphins13Raiders0
Dolphins14Raiders0
Touchdown5 plays, from the Raiders 34 to the Raiders 24
Punt10 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Dolphins 40
Dolphins14Raiders2
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter48 plays
Dolphins14Raiders5
Field goal8 plays, from the Raiders 41 to the Dolphins 25
Punt11 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Raiders 39
Dolphins14Raiders11
Dolphins14Raiders12
Touchdown12 plays, from the Raiders 5 to the Dolphins 1
No good16 plays, from the Dolphins 24 to the Raiders 30
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt6 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.2 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
Dolphins14Raiders18
Dolphins14Raiders19
Touchdown12 plays, from the Raiders 28 to the Dolphins 12
Punt8 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Raiders 48
The period ended10 plays, from the Raiders 16 to the Dolphins 17
4th quarter56 plays
Dolphins14Raiders25
Touchdown5 plays, from the Dolphins 17 to the Dolphins 1
Dolphins17Raiders25
Field goal12 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Raiders 23
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 32
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Raiders 43
Punt6 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFour
Dolphins23Raiders25
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Dolphins25Raiders25
Touchdown17 plays, from the Dolphins 18 to the Raiders 1
The period ended3 plays
Overtime37 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
Dolphins25Raiders28
Field goal9 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Dolphins 20
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.5 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Dolphins28Raiders28
Field goal15 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Raiders 32
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defenders
Dolphins28Raiders31
Field goal12 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Dolphins 3
4th quarter1 plays
The period ended1 play
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Raiders -4
Closing total
45
Dolphins moneyline
+173
Raiders moneyline
-194
Raiders closed -4, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 45; the game landed 59 — over by 14.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · grass
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
Dolphins 7 days · Raiders 7 days
Coaches
Brian Flores vs Jon Gruden
Overtime · 4:32LV +23% win prob(4:32) (Shotgun) 37-M.Gaskin left tackle to LV 40 for 15 yards (24-J.Abram). LV-52-D.Perryman was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
Overtime · 0:03LV +21% win prob(:03) (Field Goal formation) PENALTY on MIA-27-J.Coleman, Neutral Zone Infraction, 4 yards, enforced at MIA 7 - No Play.
