2021 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 26, 2021 · Allegiant Stadium

Miami Dolphins

Las Vegas RaidersWinner

LV -4 no coverO 45 ✓DomeRaiders closed -4, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Las Vegas Raiders 31–28 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 6:32, MIA +41% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 6:32MIA — LV LV ball · 4th & 9LV 91%

(6:32) 2-D.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 6:32MIA +41% win prob(6:32) 2-D.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
OT · 5:50LV +38% win prob(5:50) (Shotgun) 14-J.Brissett pass deep left to 88-M.Gesicki pushed ob at MIA 42 for 27 yards (5-D.Deablo).
OT · 2:12LV +29% win prob(2:12) (Shotgun) 31-P.Barber right guard pushed ob at MIA 19 for 27 yards (8-J.Holland). MIA-29-Br.Jones was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
Q1 · 6:49MIA +28% win prob(6:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right intended for 87-F.Moreau INTERCEPTED by 52-E.Roberts [21-E.Rowe] at MIA 15. 52-E.Roberts for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Dolphins	Raiders
Offensive plays	78	79
Total yards	332	499 (edge)
Yards per play	4.3	6.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.07	0.02 (edge)
Success rate	37%	46% (edge)
Dropback rate	73%	58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.01	0.14 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.29	-0.16 (edge)
Third downs	6/17	8/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	12 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	19	25 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Raiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.07.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LV

Derek CarrQB

26/43, 386 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

6.6 expected points added · -1.8% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Jacoby BrissettQB

32/49, 215 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-2.3 expected points added · -3.7% completion over expected

Rushing · LV

Peyton BarberRB

23 att, 111 yds, 1 TD

-3.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Myles GaskinRB

13 att, 65 yds, 0 TD

-1.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LV

Bryan EdwardsWR

3/5 for 89 yds, 0 TD

13% of team targets · 3.6 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

Mike GesickiTE

10/12 for 86 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 4.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LV	LV 25	5	-4	1:34	Punt
2	MIA	MIA 32	7	21	2:38	Punt
3	LV	LV 15	7	64	4:14	Defensive touchdown
4	LV	LV 25	5	9	1:45	Turnover on downs
5	MIA	LV 34	5	34	1:42	Touchdown
6	LV	LV 25	10	43	2:31	Punt
7	MIA	MIA 1	1	-1	0:04	Turnover on downs
8	LV	LV 37	10	31	3:56	Turnover on downs
9	MIA	MIA 25	11	36	5:16	Punt
10	LV	LV 5	11	75	4:24	Touchdown
11	MIA	MIA 24	11	41	1:56	Turnover on downs
12	MIA	MIA 25	6	14	2:27	Punt
13	LV	LV 28	10	67	5:16	Touchdown
14	MIA	MIA 25	8	12	2:25	Punt
15	LV	LV 16	12	94	6:05	Touchdown
16	MIA	MIA 25	12	47	5:17	Turnover on downs
17	LV	LV 25	5	7	1:31	Punt
18	MIA	MIA 30	6	12	2:30	Turnover on downs
19	LV	LV 43	4	-16	1:07	Punt
20	MIA	MIA 18	14	63	3:20	Touchdown
21	LV	LV 25	2	0	0:02	Turnover on downs
22	LV	LV 25	9	55	3:33	Turnover on downs
23	MIA	MIA 25	12	53	3:38	Turnover on downs
24	LV	LV 25	9	74	2:49	Turnover on downs

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Raiders gained 94 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jacoby Brissett	32/49	215	0	0	2	-2.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Myles Gaskin	13	65	5.0	0	-1.9
Jacoby Brissett	7	37	5.3	1	0.3
Malcolm Brown	7	31	4.4	1	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Gesicki	10	12	86	26%	4.8
Jaylen Waddle	12	13	58	28%	-0.7
DeVante Parker	4	7	42	15%	3.0
Will Fuller	3	6	20	13%	0.7
Myles Gaskin	3	6	9	13%	-4.4
Malcolm Brown	0	2	0	4%	-1.1
Durham Smythe	0	1	0	2%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Zach Sieler	3	5	0.0	0	1
Jerome Baker	5	3	0.0	0	0
Christian Wilkins	6	1	1.0	0	0
Brandon Jones	4	2	2.0	0	0
Jaelan Phillips	4	2	0.0	0	0
Elandon Roberts	3	3	0.0	1	1
Nik Needham	3	2	0.0	0	1
Eric Rowe	2	3	0.0	0	0
Xavien Howard	2	1	0.0	0	1
Jevon Holland	2	1	0.0	0	0

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	26/43	386	2	1	3	6.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Peyton Barber	23	111	4.8	1	-3.1
Kenyan Drake	8	24	3.0	0	-2.4
Henry Ruggs	1	7	7.0	0	0.3
Alec Ingold	1	0	0.0	0	-0.2
Derek Carr	2	-2	-1.0	0	-2.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Bryan Edwards	3	5	89	0	13%	3.6
Henry Ruggs	4	7	78	0	18%	6.2
Hunter Renfrow	5	6	77	1	15%	8.1
Darren Waller	5	7	54	0	18%	4.7
Kenyan Drake	3	6	33	0	15%	0.3
Peyton Barber	3	5	31	0	13%	1.5
Zay Jones	1	1	15	0	3%	3.3
Foster Moreau	1	2	8	0	5%	-12.3
Alec Ingold	1	1	1	1	3%	0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Denzel Perryman	9	4	0.0	0
Cory Littleton	7	3	0.0	1
Johnathan Abram	3	4	0.0	0
Trayvon Mullen	5	1	0.0	2
Casey Hayward	4	0	0.0	0
Johnathan Hankins	1	3	0.0	0
Darius Philon	2	2	0.0	0
Quinton Jefferson	2	2	1.0	0
Carl Nassib	1	3	0.5	0
Solomon Thomas	1	3	0.5	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LV -4
Closing total: 45
MIA moneyline: +173
LV moneyline: -194

Raiders closed -4, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 45; the game landed 59 — over by 14.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: MIA 7 days · LV 7 days
Coaches: Brian Flores vs Jon Gruden