2021 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 26, 2021 · Gillette Stadium

New Orleans SaintsWinner

New England Patriots

NE -3 upsetU 44 ✓Patriots closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New Orleans Saints 28–13. Biggest swing: Q2 2:56, NO +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 2:56NO — NE NE ball · 3rd & 10NO 67%

(2:56) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 85-H.Henry INTERCEPTED by 26-P.Williams [55-K.Elliss] at NO 45. 26-P.Williams to NE 9 for 46 yards (25-B.Bolden). FUMBLES (25-B.Bolden), recovered by NO-55-K.Ell

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 2:56NO +13% win prob(2:56) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 85-H.Henry INTERCEPTED by 26-P.Williams [55-K.Elliss] at NO 45. 26-P.Williams to NE 9 for 46 yards (25-B.Bolden). FUMBLES (25-B.Bolden), recovered by NO-55-K.Elliss at NE 1. 55-K.Elliss for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 85-H.Henry INTERCEPTED by 26-P.Williams [55-K.Elliss] at NO 45. 26-P.Williams to NE 9 for 46 yards (25-B.Bolden).
Q3 · 15:00NO +12% win prob(15:00) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 81-J.Smith INTERCEPTED by 27-M.Jenkins at NE 34. 27-M.Jenkins for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 7:40NE +10% win prob(7:40) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short middle to 41-A.Kamara for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 0:13NO +8% win prob(:13) 6-A.Rosas 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Saints	Patriots
Offensive plays	60	70
Total yards	254	300 (edge)
Yards per play	4.2	4.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.07 (edge)	-0.27
Success rate	53% (edge)	37%
Dropback rate	45%	80%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.19 (edge)	-0.31
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.04 (edge)	-0.11
Third downs	6/13 (edge)	7/19
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	4 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	19 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	3

Patriots outgained Saints 300–254 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Mac JonesQB

30/51, 270 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT

-16.9 expected points added · -1.0% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Jameis WinstonQB

13/21, 128 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

5.3 expected points added · +3.0% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

24 att, 89 yds, 0 TD

-2.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Taysom HillTE

6 att, 32 yds, 1 TD

0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

Kendrick BourneWR

6/8 for 96 yds, 1 TD

16% of team targets · 6.3 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Jakobi MeyersWR

9/14 for 94 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · 2.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NO	NO 25	5	1	1:23	Punt
2	NE	NE 23	4	7	1:04	Punt
3	NO	NO 31	12	69	4:58	Touchdown
4	NE	NE 25	5	8	2:10	Punt
5	NO	NO 15	10	51	5:16	Turnover on downs
6	NE	NE 42	4	5	0:54	Punt
7	NO	NO 20	4	6	1:29	Punt
8	NE	NE 20	10	30	3:55	Punt
9	NO	NE 49	8	31	4:38	Turnover on downs
10	NE	NE 26	5	18	1:29	Defensive touchdown
11	NO	NE 9	4	9	1:00	Touchdown
12	NE	NE 25	7	53	1:10	Turnover on downs
13	NO	NO 25	2	0	0:34	End of half
14	NE	NE 25	2	0	0:09	Defensive touchdown
15	NE	NE 25	5	4	1:16	Punt
16	NO	NO 30	6	21	2:58	Punt
17	NE	NE 20	16	82	9:05	Turnover on downs
18	NO	NO 40	5	-1	1:32	Punt
19	NE	NE 23	6	9	2:22	Punt
20	NO	NO 20	4	-8	2:10	Punt
21	NE	NO 44	4	34	1:06	Touchdown
22	NO	NO 25	15	75	6:45	Touchdown
23	NE	NE 25	16	50	2:32	Interception
24	NO	NO 22	1	0	0:05	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 82 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jameis Winston	13/21	128	2	0	3	5.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alvin Kamara	24	89	3.7	0	-2.7
Taysom Hill	6	32	5.3	1	0.9
Tony Jones	2	12	6.0	0	0.9
Alex Armah	1	5	5.0	0	0.3
Jameis Winston	5	4	0.8	0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marquez Callaway	4	5	41	1	25%	4.9
Deonte Harty	3	3	31	0	15%	4.9
Alvin Kamara	3	4	29	1	20%	3.9
Kenny Stills	1	3	17	0	15%	-0.6
Tony Jones	2	2	10	0	10%	0.4
Juwan Johnson	0	1	0	0	5%	-0.6
Adam Trautman	0	1	0	0	5%	-0.5
Chris Hogan	0	1	0	0	5%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Marshon Lattimore	8	2	0.0	1	1
Demario Davis	7	1	0.0	0	2
Malcolm Jenkins	5	2	0.0	1	2
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson	4	1	1.0	0	1
Paulson Adebo	5	0	0.0	0	0
Kaden Elliss	3	1	0.0	0	0
P.J. Williams	2	1	0.0	1	1
Marcus Williams	2	0	0.0	0	0
Shy Tuttle	2	0	0.0	0	0
Pete Werner	1	1	0.0	0	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mac Jones	30/51	270	1	3	2	-16.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Mac Jones	6	28	4.7	2.3
Damien Harris	6	14	2.3	-1.9
James White	1	6	6.0	1.2
J.J. Taylor	1	2	2.0	-0.5
Brandon Bolden	3	-1	-0.3	-2.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Kendrick Bourne	6	8	96	1	16%	6.3
Jakobi Meyers	9	14	94	0	27%	2.2
Hunter Henry	5	6	36	0	12%	-3.7
Brandon Bolden	3	4	23	0	8%	1.7
Nelson Agholor	2	8	17	0	16%	-3.2
Jonnu Smith	1	6	4	0	12%	-12.2
J.J. Taylor	2	2	3	0	4%	-1.2
James White	0	1	0	0	2%	-1.6
Damien Harris	2	2	-3	0	4%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Deatrich Wise	5	1	0.5	0
J.C. Jackson	4	1	0.0	0
Adrian Phillips	2	3	0.0	0
Jalen Mills	2	2	0.0	0
Davon Godchaux	3	1	0.0	0
Ja'Whaun Bentley	3	1	0.0	1
Kyle Dugger	2	2	0.0	0
Lawrence Guy	3	1	0.0	0
Kyle Van Noy	2	2	0.0	0
Matt Judon	2	1	2.5	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -3
Closing total: 44
NO moneyline: +130
NE moneyline: -144

Patriots closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44; the game landed 41 — under by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 73°F, wind 11 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: NO 7 days · NE 7 days
Coaches: Sean Payton vs Bill Belichick