For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
New Orleans Saints 28 at New England Patriots 13. Final.
Patriots -3 upset
The verdict · 2021 Week 3
New Orleans Saints 28, Patriots 13 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 2:56, 3rd and 10, on P.J. Williams — 12.7 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 2:56 · 3rd and 10
P.J. Williams
Saints
(2:56) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 85-H.Henry INTERCEPTED by 26-P.Williams [55-K.Elliss] at NO 45. 26-P.Williams to NE 9 for 46 yards (25-B.Bolden). FUMBLES (25-B.Bolden), recovered by NO-55-K.Elliss at NE 1. 55-K.Elliss for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 85-H.Henry INTERCEPTED by 26-P.Williams [55-K.Elliss] at NO 45. 26-P.Williams to NE 9 for 46 yards (25-B.Bolden).
U 44 ✓
Patriots closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New Orleans Saints 28–13. Biggest swing: Q2 2:56, Saints +12.7% win probability on one snap.
12.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Alvin KamaraSaintsQ1 7:40(7:40) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short middle to 41-A.Kamara for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10.0pts
Malcolm JenkinsSaintsQ3 15:00(15:00) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 81-J.Smith INTERCEPTED by 27-M.Jenkins at NE 34. 27-M.Jenkins for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12.1pts
What separated them
Red zone
Saints won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Patriots at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Saints won this one — no giveaways, against Patriots at 3 giveaways.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Saints won this one — 53% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Patriots at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Saints won this one — +0.19 expected points per dropback, against Patriots at -0.31 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Saints168 of 181 plays carry both curves
(2:56) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 85-H.Henry INTERCEPTED by 26-P.Williams [55-K.Elliss] at NO 45. 26-P.Williams to NE 9 for 46 yards (25-B.Bolden). FUMBLES (25-B.Bolden), recovered by NO-55-K.Ell
Swing −12.7 for PatriotsExpected points −5.72 for PatriotsThe model had Patriots 3 points higher than the market did.play 72
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 2:56NO +13% win prob(2:56) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 85-H.Henry INTERCEPTED by 26-P.Williams [55-K.Elliss] at NO 45. 26-P.Williams to NE 9 for 46 yards (25-B.Bolden). FUMBLES (25-B.Bolden), recovered by NO-55-K.Elliss at NE 1. 55-K.Elliss for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 85-H.Henry INTERCEPTED by 26-P.Williams [55-K.Elliss] at NO 45. 26-P.Williams to NE 9 for 46 yards (25-B.Bolden).
3rd · 15:00NO +12% win prob(15:00) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 81-J.Smith INTERCEPTED by 27-M.Jenkins at NE 34. 27-M.Jenkins for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 7:40NE +10% win prob(7:40) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short middle to 41-A.Kamara for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 0:13NO +8% win prob(:13) 6-A.Rosas 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.
2nd · 4:16NO +7% win prob(4:16) 6-A.Rosas 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.
2nd · 12:54
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Alvin Kamara's 11-yard touchdown catch with 7:40 left in the 1st put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Saints ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.07Saints: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.27Patriots: −0.27 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.19Saints: +0.19 expected points added per play
−0.31Patriots: −0.31 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.04Saints: −0.04 expected points added per play
−0.11Patriots: −0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 60 snaps at a 45% dropback rate against Patriots’s 70 at 80%. Red-zone trips: Saints 4, Patriots 2.
NotePatriots outgained Saints 300-254 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NO's early-down pass rate, 36.2%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 0.5 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.2-swing turn from week 2.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -49 pts to 37 pts
right on their number · +2.2 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.35× that swing) · 56 dropbacks
Patriots22.2%
leaned — got home · +8.4 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+1.14× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNE's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 81.3%, 31.1 points above their season mean of 50.2% and 1.7 times their own 17.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
75Andrus PeatG · Every snap100%62 snaps
71Ryan RamczykT · Every snap100%62 snaps
51Cesar RuizG · Every snap100%62 snaps
76Calvin ThrockmortonT · Every snap100%62 snaps
2Jameis WinstonQB · Full-time95%59 snaps
74James HurstT · Full-time89%55 snaps
41Alvin KamaraRB · Full-time84%52 snaps
82Adam TrautmanTE · Full-time82%51 snaps
1Marquez CallawayWR · Heavy rotation61%38 snaps
7Taysom HillQB · Heavy rotation53%33 snaps
45Garrett GriffinTE · Rotational48%30 snaps
12Kenny StillsWR · Rotational47%29 snaps
11Deonte HarrisWR · Rotational31%19 snaps
80Chris HoganWR · Rotational26%16 snaps
88Ty MontgomeryWR · Situational21%13 snaps
34Tony JonesRB · Situational21%13 snaps
83Juwan JohnsonTE · Situational13%8 snaps
72Terron ArmsteadT · Situational13%8 snaps
40Alex ArmahRB · Situational11%7 snaps
67Landon YoungT · Situational5%3 snaps
Inactive · 5
Erik McCoyCDesmond TrufantCBAlbert HugginsDTIan BookQBLil'Jordan HumphreyWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Jones pass−18% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:56) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 85-H.Henry INTERCEPTED by 26-P.Williams [55-K.Elliss] at NO 45. 26-P.Williams to NE 9 for 46 yards (25-B.Bolden). FUMBLES (25-B.Bolden), recovered by NO-55-K.Elliss at NE 1. 55-K.Elliss for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 85-H.Henry INTERCEPTED by 26-P.Williams [55-K.Elliss] at NO 45. 26-P.Williams to NE 9 for 46 yards (25-B.Bolden).
Q2 2:56 · Patriots · 3rd & 10 at NE 44 · gained nothing · -5.72 EP · −17.9% win probability
166 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 82 yards from the NE 10 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
-0.13
Success rate
41%
Yards
552
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54-0.2681%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.0128%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR14-0.3643%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.3657%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR7+1.0286%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.1357%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.0233%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Patriots0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 26
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 23 to the Patriots 30
Saints6Patriots0
Saints7Patriots0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Saints 31 to the Patriots 11
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 33
No good12 plays, from the Saints 15 to the Patriots 34
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter49 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 40 to the Patriots 47
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Saints 26
Punt10 plays, from the Patriots 20 to midfield
No good8 plays, from the Patriots 49 to the Patriots 18
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Patriots 26 to the Patriots 44
Saints13Patriots0
Saints14Patriots0
Touchdown5 plays, from the Patriots 9 to the Patriots 4
Saints14Patriots3
Field goal10 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Saints 22
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Saints20Patriots3
Touchdown2 plays
Saints21Patriots3
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 29
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Patriots 49
Saints21Patriots6
Field goal17 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Saints 8
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 40 to the Saints 41
4th quarter53 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 23 to the Patriots 39
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Saints 21
Saints21Patriots12
Saints21Patriots13
Touchdown5 plays, from the Saints 44 to the Saints 22
Saints27Patriots13
Saints28Patriots13
Touchdown18 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Patriots 4
Intercepted18 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Saints 25
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Patriots -3
Closing total
44
Saints moneyline
+130
Patriots moneyline
-144
Patriots closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44; the game landed 41 — under by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Mild, 72°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 10 mph out of the west; mainly clear.
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
Saints 7 days · Patriots 7 days
Coaches
Sean Payton vs Bill Belichick
NE +6% win prob
(12:54) 4-B.Gillikin punts 44 yards to NE 30, Center-49-Z.Wood. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 38 for 8 yards (48-J.Gray, 50-A.Dowell). PENALTY on NE-50-C.Winovich, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 30.
1st · 13:48NO +6% win prob(13:48) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle to 80-C.Hogan.
1st · 10:42NE +5% win prob(10:42) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short right to 11-D.Harris to NE 43 for 12 yards (21-A.Phillips). NO-72-T.Armstead was injured during the play. He is Out.
