2021 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 26, 2021 · Empower Field at Mile High

New York Jets

Denver BroncosWinner

DEN -10.5 ✓U 42 ✓Broncos closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 26.

Denver Broncos 26–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:11, DEN +5% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 12:11NYJ — DEN NYJ ball · 1st & 10DEN 83%

(12:11) (Shotgun) 32-Mi.Carter left end to NYJ 24 for 4 yards (96-S.Harris).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 12:11DEN +5% win prob(12:11) (Shotgun) 32-Mi.Carter left end to NYJ 24 for 4 yards (96-S.Harris).
Q1 · 9:58DEN +4% win prob(9:58) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 14-C.Sutton to DEN 36 for 8 yards (37-B.Hall).
Q1 · 6:45DEN +4% win prob(6:45) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep right to 1-K.Hamler to NYJ 22 for 28 yards (20-M.Maye).
Q1 · 12:57DEN +4% win prob(12:57) 6-S.Martin punts 43 yards to NYJ 9, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by DEN-82-E.Saubert.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jets	Broncos
Offensive plays	53	63
Total yards	162	344 (edge)
Yards per play	3.1	5.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.51	-0.01 (edge)
Success rate	34%	46% (edge)
Dropback rate	75%	46%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.60	0.47 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.23 (edge)	-0.43
Third downs	4/13	4/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	10 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	11	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	5	2 (edge)
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.51.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Teddy BridgewaterQB

19/25, 235 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

11.9 expected points added · +12.7% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Zach WilsonQB

19/35, 160 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-24.1 expected points added · -8.9% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Melvin GordonRB

18 att, 60 yds, 1 TD

-1.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

Javonte WilliamsRB

12 att, 29 yds, 1 TD

-12.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Tim PatrickWR

5/5 for 98 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 8.4 expected points added

Receiving · NYJ

Corey DavisWR

5/10 for 41 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · -7.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DEN	DEN 25	7	23	2:12	Punt
2	NYJ	NYJ 9	5	16	2:11	Punt
3	DEN	DEN 25	12	69	7:10	Touchdown
4	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	-10	1:38	Punt
5	DEN	DEN 36	6	37	1:59	Turnover on downs
6	NYJ	NYJ 25	14	37	7:03	Punt
7	DEN	DEN 6	4	13	2:25	Punt
8	NYJ	NYJ 33	4	-9	1:44	Punt
9	DEN	DEN 36	10	55	2:42	Touchdown
10	NYJ	NYJ 12	5	21	0:56	End of half
11	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	8	1:00	Punt
12	DEN	DEN 34	8	22	4:37	Turnover on downs
13	NYJ	NYJ 25	8	9	3:25	Punt
14	DEN	DEN 26	5	17	2:50	Punt
15	NYJ	NYJ 41	6	39	3:54	Turnover on downs
16	DEN	DEN 26	11	60	7:33	Turnover on downs
17	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	33	1:15	Interception
18	DEN	NYJ 33	4	30	1:47	Fumble
19	NYJ	NYJ 37	4	-8	0:37	Turnover on downs
20	DEN	NYJ 29	6	18	2:02	Turnover on downs
21	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	26	0:30	Interception
22	DEN	NYJ 27	1	0	0:30	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 69 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Zach Wilson	19/35	160	0	2	5	-24.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Michael Carter	9	24	2.7	-3.0
Ty Johnson	3	17	5.7	-0.4
Zach Wilson	1	2	2.0	0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Corey Davis	5	10	41	30%	-7.1
Keelan Cole	2	2	30	6%	2.0
Braxton Berrios	2	3	26	9%	-1.9
Elijah Moore	3	6	22	18%	-3.7
Jeff Smith	1	1	13	3%	0.9
Tyler Kroft	2	2	12	6%	1.4
Ty Johnson	1	5	6	15%	-3.4
Michael Carter	2	3	5	9%	-2.0
Ryan Griffin	1	1	5	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
C.J. Mosley	4	6	0.0	0
Marcus Maye	7	2	0.0	0
John Franklin-Myers	1	4	0.0	0
Quincy Williams	5	0	0.0	0
Bryce Hall	4	1	0.0	0
Michael Carter	1	4	0.0	0
Brandin Echols	5	0	0.0	1
Adrian Colbert	2	3	0.0	0
Folorunso Fatukasi	1	3	0.0	0
Quinnen Williams	3	1	1.5	0

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Teddy Bridgewater	19/25	235	0	0	2	11.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Melvin Gordon	18	60	3.3	1	-1.8
Javonte Williams	12	29	2.4	1	-12.0
Teddy Bridgewater	4	24	6.0	0	-0.2
Damarea Crockett	3	7	2.3	0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Tim Patrick	5	5	98	21%	8.4
Courtland Sutton	5	5	37	21%	3.8
Javonte Williams	3	4	33	17%	2.3
K.J. Hamler	1	3	28	13%	2.2
Melvin Gordon	1	2	21	8%	1.3
Noah Fant	2	3	15	13%	-1.0
Albert Okwuegbunam	1	1	6	4%	0.1
Diontae Spencer	1	1	-3	4%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Alexander Johnson	5	0	2.0	0	1
Patrick Surtain	5	0	0.0	0	1
Malik Reed	2	2	1.0	0	0
Justin Strnad	2	2	0.0	0	0
Von Miller	1	2	1.0	0	0
Kyle Fuller	3	0	0.0	0	0
Shamar Stephen	1	2	0.0	0	0
Justin Simmons	1	1	0.0	1	1
Kareem Jackson	1	1	0.0	0	0
Eric Saubert	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DEN -10.5
Closing total: 42
NYJ moneyline: +470
DEN moneyline: -597

Broncos closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 26.

Total closed 42; the game landed 26 — under by 16.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 82°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: NYJ 7 days · DEN 7 days
Coaches: Robert Saleh vs Vic Fangio