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2021 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 26, 2021 · Empower Field at Mile High
Final
JetsNew York0
BY 26final margin
BroncosDenver26
New York Jets 0 at Denver Broncos 26. Final.
Broncos -10.5 ✓U 42 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 3
Denver Broncos 26, Jets 0 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 12:11, 1st and 10, on Michael Carter — 5.1 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 12:11 · 1st and 10
Michael Carter
Jets
(12:11) (Shotgun) 32-Mi.Carter left end to NYJ 24 for 4 yards (96-S.Harris).
Broncos closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 26.
Denver Broncos 26–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:11, Jets +5.1% win probability on one snap.
5.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Courtland SuttonBroncosQ1 9:58(9:58) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 14-C.Sutton to DEN 36 for 8 yards (37-B.Hall).
4.1pts
K.J. HamlerBroncosQ1 6:45(6:45) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep right to 1-K.Hamler to NYJ 22 for 28 yards (20-M.Maye).
4.1pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Broncos won this one — +0.47 expected points per dropback, against Jets at -0.60 expected points per dropback.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Broncos won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Jets at 3 chunk plays.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Broncos won this one — -0.01 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.51 expected points per snap.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Broncos won this one — 46% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jets at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Jets149 of 158 plays carry both curves
(12:11) (Shotgun) 32-Mi.Carter left end to NYJ 24 for 4 yards (96-S.Harris).
Swing −5.1 for BroncosExpected points +0.20 for BroncosThe model had Jets 31 points higher than the market did.play 10
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 12:11DEN +5% win prob(12:11) (Shotgun) 32-Mi.Carter left end to NYJ 24 for 4 yards (96-S.Harris).
1st · 9:58DEN +4% win prob(9:58) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 14-C.Sutton to DEN 36 for 8 yards (37-B.Hall).
1st · 6:45DEN +4% win prob(6:45) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep right to 1-K.Hamler to NYJ 22 for 28 yards (20-M.Maye).
1st · 12:57DEN +4% win prob(12:57) 6-S.Martin punts 43 yards to NYJ 9, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by DEN-82-E.Saubert.
1st · 3:32DEN +3% win prob(3:32) 33-J.Williams right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 10:46DEN +3% win prob(10:46) 4-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to DEN 25, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.
2nd · 4:30NYJ +2% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Javonte Williams's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 3:32 left in the 1st put Denver Broncos ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st3:32Javonte Williams·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
2nd14:55Brandon McManus·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap J.Bobenmoyer+30–10
3rd9:28Brandon McManus·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap J.Bobenmoyer+30–20
4th6:45Brandon McManus·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap J.Bobenmoyer+30–23
4th1:04Brandon McManus·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap J.Bobenmoyer+30–26
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jetscategory by categoryBroncos
Jets0–9Broncos
162Total yards344
3.1Yards per play5.5
34%Success rate46%
31%Third-down rate36%
0Red-zone touchdowns2
3Explosive plays10
11First downs20
5Sacks taken2
2Turnovers1
The read
Broncos ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.60 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.51Jets: −0.51 expected points added per play
−0.01Broncos: −0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.60Jets: −0.60 expected points added per play
+0.47Broncos: +0.47 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.23Jets: −0.23 expected points added per play
−0.43Broncos: −0.43 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 53 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Broncos’s 63 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Jets 1, Broncos 5.
NoteBroncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.51.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DEN's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 50.0% in week 2 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.6 points.
NYJ's pass rate over expected turned over: −12.4 pts in week 2 against +6.3 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
53 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 18 pts
right on their number · −2.9 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.50× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Broncos22.5%
off script — got home · +9.6 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (+2.07× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDEN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 22.5%, 9.6 points above their season mean of 12.9% and 2.1 times their own 4.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Jets
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 4 never used
2Zach WilsonQB · Every snap100%54 snaps
75Alijah Vera-TuckerG · Every snap100%54 snaps
62Greg Van RotenG · Every snap100%54 snaps
78Morgan MosesT · Every snap100%54 snaps
60Connor McGovernC · Every snap100%54 snaps
76George FantT · Every snap100%54 snaps
84Corey DavisWR · Full-time94%51 snaps
10Braxton BerriosWR · Heavy rotation78%42 snaps
86Ryan GriffinTE · Heavy rotation61%33 snaps
25Ty JohnsonRB · Heavy rotation57%31 snaps
88Keelan ColeWR · Heavy rotation50%27 snaps
8Elijah MooreWR · Rotational48%26 snaps
81Tyler KroftTE · Rotational43%23 snaps
32Michael CarterRB · Rotational43%23 snaps
16Jeff SmithWR · Situational11%6 snaps
87Daniel BrownTE · Situational9%5 snaps
85Trevon WescoTE · Situational6%3 snaps
Inactive · 5
Jonathan MarshallDTLa'Mical PerineRBTevin ColemanRBDenzel MimsWRJamison CrowderWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 4
Dan FeeneyGIsaiah WilliamsGMike WhiteQBChuma EdogaT
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Bridgewater pass+13% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(6:45) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep right to 1-K.Hamler to NYJ 22 for 28 yards (20-M.Maye).
Q1 6:45 · Broncos · 3rd & 9 at 50 · gained 28 · +3.17 EP · +12.9% win probability
147 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 158 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 158 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 75 yards from the DEN 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
158 of 158 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
158
EPA per play
-0.18
Success rate
38%
Yards
505
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.5781%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.2552%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17-0.0453%
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR11-0.1218%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.2850%
Broncos1 RB, 4 TE, 0 WR4——
snapsepapass rate
158 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
158 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 48
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 9 to the Jets 25
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Jets0Broncos6
Jets0Broncos7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Jets 1
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 29
The period ended5 plays, from the Broncos 36 to the Jets 33
2nd quarter44 plays
Jets0Broncos10
Field goal2 plays
Punt15 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Broncos 33
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 6 to the Broncos 14
Punt4 plays
Jets0Broncos16
Jets0Broncos17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Broncos 36 to the Jets 1
The period ended7 plays, from the Jets 12 to the Jets 26
3rd quarter33 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 33
Jets0Broncos20
Field goal8 plays, from the Broncos 34 to the Jets 21
Punt8 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 36
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 26 to the Broncos 33
The period ended6 plays, from the Jets 41 to the Broncos 32
4th quarter45 plays
Turnover on downs2 plays, from the Broncos 28 to the Broncos 25
Jets0Broncos23
Field goal12 plays, from the Broncos 26 to the Jets 1
Intercepted5 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Broncos 42
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Jets 33 to the Jets 1
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Jets 37 to the Jets 41
Jets0Broncos26
Field goal9 plays, from the Jets 29 to the Jets 10
Intercepted5 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Broncos 49
The period ended2 plays
The period ended1 play
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
