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Philadelphia Eagles 21 at Dallas Cowboys 41. Final.
Cowboys -3.5 ✓O 51.5 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 3
Dallas Cowboys 41, Eagles 21 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 10:04, 2nd and 6, on Dak Prescott — 16.5 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 10:04 · 2nd and 6
Dak Prescott
Eagles
(10:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL -4 for -9 yards (97-J.Hargrave). FUMBLES (97-J.Hargrave), RECOVERED by PHI-91-F.Cox at DAL -5. TOUCHDOWN.
Cowboys closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 20.
Dallas Cowboys 41–21 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 10:04, Eagles +16.5% win probability on one snap.
16.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
CeeDee LambCowboysQ1 12:36(12:36) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 88-C.Lamb to PHI 1 for 44 yards (3-S.Nelson). PENALTY on PHI-97-J.Hargrave, Unnecessary Roughness, 0 yards, enforced at PHI 1.
10.9pts
Dak PrescottEaglesQ1 5:50(5:50) (Run formation) 4-D.Prescott up the middle to PHI 1 for no gain (49-A.Singleton; 96-D.Barnett). Dallas challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 05:43.)
12.0pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Cowboys won this one — 59% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Eagles at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Cowboys won this one — +0.32 expected points per dropback, against Eagles at -0.21 expected points per dropback.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cowboys won this one — +0.10 expected points per snap, against Eagles at -0.20 expected points per snap.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Cowboys at 4 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Eagles.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Eagles169 of 174 plays carry both curves
(10:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL -4 for -9 yards (97-J.Hargrave). FUMBLES (97-J.Hargrave), RECOVERED by PHI-91-F.Cox at DAL -5. TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −16.5 for CowboysExpected points −6.72 for CowboysThe model had Eagles 4 points higher than the market did.play 15
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 10:04PHI +16% win prob(10:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL -4 for -9 yards (97-J.Hargrave). FUMBLES (97-J.Hargrave), RECOVERED by PHI-91-F.Cox at DAL -5. TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 5:50PHI +12% win prob(5:50) (Run formation) 4-D.Prescott up the middle to PHI 1 for no gain (49-A.Singleton; 96-D.Barnett). Dallas challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 05:43.)
1st · 12:36DAL +11% win prob(12:36) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 88-C.Lamb to PHI 1 for 44 yards (3-S.Nelson). PENALTY on PHI-97-J.Hargrave, Unnecessary Roughness, 0 yards, enforced at PHI 1.
3rd · 14:17PHI +6% win prob(14:17) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left intended for 6-D.Smith INTERCEPTED by 7-T.Diggs at DAL 41. 7-T.Diggs for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 7:32DAL +6% win prob(7:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 89-B.Jarwin to PHI 19 for 8 yards (50-E.Wilson; 28-A.Harris). PENALTY on PHI-22-M.Epps, Face Mask (15 Yards), 10 yards, enforced at PHI 19.
1st · 10:48PHI +5% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Dalton Schultz's 19-yard touchdown catch with 1:36 left in the 1st put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Cowboys ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Eagles, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.20Eagles: −0.20 expected points added per play
+0.10Cowboys: +0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.21Eagles: −0.21 expected points added per play
+0.32Cowboys: +0.32 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.18Eagles: −0.18 expected points added per play
−0.10Cowboys: −0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 53 snaps at a 91% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 68 at 47%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 2, Cowboys 6.
NoteCowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.20.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
PHI's pass rate over expected, +21.1 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 8.1 points clear of the next team along.
2.5 times their own weekly swing above their number.
53 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
PHI's early-down pass rate, 87.2%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 3.3 points clear of the next team along.
2.3 times their own weekly swing above their number.
39 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 16.4 points.
DAL's sack or hit rate turned over: 20.0% in week 2 against 8.3% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 25 pts
inside their normal wobble · +6.2 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.84× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Cowboys8.3%
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.9 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−1.39× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePHI's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 21.1 pts, 27.3 points above their season mean of -6.2 pts and 2.5 times their own 10.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Prescott sacked−16% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(10:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL -4 for -9 yards (97-J.Hargrave). FUMBLES (97-J.Hargrave), RECOVERED by PHI-91-F.Cox at DAL -5. TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 10:04 · Cowboys · 2nd & 6 at DAL 5 · lost 5 · -6.72 EP · −16.3% win probability
167 snaps placed · 7 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 174 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 90 yards from the PHI 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
174 of 174 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
174
EPA per play
-0.08
Success rate
45%
Yards
747
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44-0.3480%
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.2549%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23-0.0343%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.8871%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Eagles0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter48 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Eagles0Cowboys6
Eagles0Cowboys7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Eagles 1
Intercepted4 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Cowboys 32
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Eagles6Cowboys7
Touchdown2 plays, from the Cowboys 1 to the Cowboys 5
Eagles7Cowboys7
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Eagles 1
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 1 to the Eagles 6
Eagles7Cowboys13
Eagles7Cowboys14
Touchdown8 plays, from midfield to the Eagles 19
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 34
2nd quarter37 plays
Eagles7Cowboys20
Touchdown17 plays, from the Cowboys 35 to the Eagles 3
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Cowboys 46
Punt4 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Eagles 24 to the Cowboys 49
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter45 plays
Eagles7Cowboys26
Touchdown4 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Cowboys 47
Eagles7Cowboys27
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 29
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 32 to the Cowboys 38
Eagles13Cowboys27
Eagles14Cowboys27
Touchdown11 plays, from the Eagles 10 to the Cowboys 3
Punt8 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Eagles 43
Punt5 plays
The period ended7 plays, from the Cowboys 39 to the Eagles 28
4th quarter44 plays
Eagles14Cowboys33
Eagles14Cowboys34
Touchdown8 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Eagles 2
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 43
Eagles14Cowboys40
Eagles14Cowboys41
Touchdown4 plays, from the Eagles 31 to the Eagles 22
Eagles20Cowboys41
Eagles21Cowboys41
Touchdown11 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Cowboys 15
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 31
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Eagles 35 to the Eagles 40
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Cowboys -3.5
Closing total
51.5
Eagles moneyline
+168
Cowboys moneyline
-189
Cowboys closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 20.
Total closed 51.5; the game landed 62 — over by 10.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface
open · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Warm, 82°F at kickoff; still at 5 mph out of the south-east; clear.
Referee
Brad Rogers
Rest
Eagles 8 days · Cowboys 8 days
Coaches
Nick Sirianni vs Mike McCarthy
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
(10:48) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right intended for 18-J.Reagor INTERCEPTED by 30-A.Brown at DAL 1. 30-A.Brown to DAL 1 for no gain (18-J.Reagor).
1st · 1:36DAL +5% win prob(1:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 86-D.Schultz for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 11:47DAL +5% win prob(11:47) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert to DAL 37 for 38 yards (18-D.Kazee).
