2021 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 26, 2021 · U.S. Bank Stadium

Seattle Seahawks

Minnesota VikingsWinner

SEA -2 upsetU 53.5 ✓DomeSeahawks closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Minnesota Vikings 30–17. Biggest swing: Q2 0:20, MIN +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:20SEA — MIN MIN ball · 1st & 3SEA 54%

(:20) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:20MIN +11% win prob(:20) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 5:32MIN +10% win prob(5:32) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 19-A.Thielen for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on SEA-6-Q.Diggs, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Q2 · 3:18SEA +8% win prob(3:18) 5-J.Myers 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q1 · 6:41MIN +8% win prob(6:41) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 83-T.Conklin for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Seahawks	Vikings
Offensive plays	52	73
Total yards	389	453 (edge)
Yards per play	7.5 (edge)	6.2
Expected points added / play	0.10	0.23 (edge)
Success rate	52% (edge)	48%
Dropback rate	71%	53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.01	0.49 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.37 (edge)	-0.07
Third downs	3/8	9/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	20	27 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs 0.10.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

30/38, 323 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

19.2 expected points added · +6.4% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Russell WilsonQB

23/32, 298 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

0.7 expected points added · +13.8% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Alexander MattisonRB

26 att, 112 yds, 0 TD

-1.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SEA

Chris CarsonRB

12 att, 80 yds, 1 TD

4.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

9/11 for 118 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 10.5 expected points added

Receiving · SEA

DK MetcalfWR

6/9 for 107 yds, 1 TD

32% of team targets · 7.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SEA	SEA 25	11	75	4:34	Touchdown
2	MIN	MIN 30	9	70	3:49	Touchdown
3	SEA	SEA 25	12	50	6:10	Turnover on downs
4	MIN	MIN 24	5	3	0:42	Punt
5	SEA	SEA 24	7	76	3:33	Touchdown
6	MIN	MIN 15	11	90	5:44	Touchdown
7	SEA	SEA 21	7	53	2:14	Turnover on downs
8	MIN	MIN 34	13	66	2:58	Touchdown
9	SEA	SEA 25	4	54	0:16	End of half
10	MIN	MIN 25	17	50	8:26	Turnover on downs
11	SEA	SEA 25	7	7	2:46	Punt
12	MIN	MIN 15	11	70	5:01	Turnover on downs
13	SEA	SEA 25	7	18	2:08	Fumble
14	MIN	MIN 11	12	88	7:08	Turnover on downs
15	SEA	SEA 25	6	17	2:03	Turnover on downs
16	MIN	MIN 43	7	16	2:05	Punt
17	SEA	SEA 1	4	39	0:23	End of game

0 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 90 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	23/32	298	1	0	2	0.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Chris Carson	12	80	6.7	1	4.7
Freddie Swain	1	11	11.0	0	0.7
Alex Collins	2	8	4.0	0	0.1
Russell Wilson	3	7	2.3	0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DK Metcalf	6	9	107	1	32%	7.5
Gerald Everett	5	5	54	0	18%	1.3
Travis Homer	3	3	48	0	11%	-1.1
Will Dissly	1	1	39	0	4%	2.8
Tyler Lockett	4	4	31	0	14%	-0.7
Freddie Swain	1	2	10	0	7%	0.4
Penny Hart	1	2	7	0	7%	-1.9
Chris Carson	2	2	2	0	7%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Bobby Wagner	4	7	0.0	0
Jamal Adams	8	2	0.0	0
Ugochukwu Amadi	5	1	0.0	0
Cody Barton	2	4	0.0	0
Jordyn Brooks	4	2	0.0	0
Darrell Taylor	5	1	1.0	0
Poona Ford	2	2	0.0	0
Tre Flowers	4	0	0.0	0
Quandre Diggs	2	2	0.0	0
Carlos Dunlap	1	2	0.0	1

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	30/38	323	3	0	1	19.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Alexander Mattison	26	112	4.3	-1.3
Ameer Abdullah	5	24	4.8	-0.3
Kirk Cousins	1	2	2.0	-0.2
C.J. Ham	2	2	1.0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Justin Jefferson	9	11	118	1	29%	10.5
Tyler Conklin	7	8	70	1	21%	4.9
Alexander Mattison	6	8	59	0	21%	-0.0
Adam Thielen	6	9	50	1	24%	1.8
K.J. Osborn	2	2	26	0	5%	3.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Eric Kendricks	6	5	1.0	0
Harrison Smith	6	2	0.0	1
Nick Vigil	3	4	0.0	0
Bashaud Breeland	4	1	0.0	0
Everson Griffen	1	2	1.0	0
Mackensie Alexander	1	1	0.0	0
Xavier Woods	2	0	0.0	1
D.J. Wonnum	1	1	0.0	0
Camryn Bynum	2	0	0.0	0
Patrick Peterson	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SEA -2
Closing total: 53.5
SEA moneyline: -120
MIN moneyline: +109

Seahawks closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 53.5; the game landed 47 — under by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: SEA 7 days · MIN 7 days
Coaches: Pete Carroll vs Mike Zimmer