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2021 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 26, 2021 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
SeahawksSeattle17
BY 13final margin
VikingsMinnesota30
Seattle Seahawks 17 at Minnesota Vikings 30. Final.
Seahawks -2 upset
The verdict · 2021 Week 3
Minnesota Vikings 30, Seahawks 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 0:20, 1st and 3, on Justin Jefferson — 11.2 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:20 · 1st and 3
Justin Jefferson
Vikings
(:20) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
U 53.5 ✓
Dome
Seahawks closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Minnesota Vikings 30–17. Biggest swing: Q2 0:20, Vikings +11.2% win probability on one snap.
11.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Adam ThielenVikingsQ2 5:32(5:32) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 19-A.Thielen for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on SEA-6-Q.Diggs, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
10.5pts
Jason MyersVikingsQ2 3:18(3:18) 5-J.Myers 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
8.1pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — +0.37 expected points per carry, against Vikings at -0.07 expected points per carry.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Vikings won this one — 9 of 14 on third down, against Seahawks at 3 of 8 on third down.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Vikings won this one — +0.49 expected points per dropback, against Seahawks at -0.01 expected points per dropback.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Vikings won this one — no giveaways, against Seahawks at 1 giveaway.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Seahawks156 of 167 plays carry both curves
(:20) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +11.2 for VikingsExpected points +1.34 for VikingsThe model had Vikings 17 points higher than the market did.play 82
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:20MIN +11% win prob(:20) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 5:32MIN +10% win prob(5:32) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 19-A.Thielen for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on SEA-6-Q.Diggs, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
2nd · 3:18SEA +8% win prob(3:18) 5-J.Myers 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
1st · 6:41MIN +8% win prob(6:41) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 83-T.Conklin for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 4:43MIN +8% win prob(4:43) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 89-W.Dissly pushed ob at MIN 33 for 39 yards (54-E.Kendricks).
1st · 11:26MIN +8% win prob(11:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 14-D.Metcalf to MIN 10 for 28 yards (22-H.Smith).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Justin Jefferson's 3-yard touchdown catch with 0:20 left in the 2nd put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:32DK Metcalf·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+77–0
3rd6:39Greg Joseph·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap A.DePaola+317–24
4th13:52Greg Joseph·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap A.DePaola+317–27
4th4:33Greg Joseph·20-yd field goal20-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap A.DePaola+317–30
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Seahawkscategory by categoryVikings
Seahawks2–7Vikings
389Total yards453
7.5Yards per play6.2
52%Success rate48%
38%Third-down rate64%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
6Explosive plays8
20First downs27
2Sacks taken1
1Turnovers0
The read
Vikings ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.49 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.10Seahawks: +0.10 expected points added per play
+0.23Vikings: +0.23 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.01Seahawks: −0.01 expected points added per play
+0.49Vikings: +0.49 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.37Seahawks: +0.37 expected points added per play
−0.07Vikings: −0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 52 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Vikings’s 73 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 2, Vikings 6.
NoteVikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs 0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
MIN's sack or hit rate turned over: 7.1% in week 2 against 18.9% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · +0.5 vs their 12.3%, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Vikings18.9%
inside their normal wobble · +4.7 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (+0.98× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSEA's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 7.7 pts, 9.8 points above their season mean of -2.0 pts and 1.6 times their own 6.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Cousins pass+13% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(5:32) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 19-A.Thielen for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on SEA-6-Q.Diggs, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Q2 5:32 · Vikings · 3rd & 13 at SEA 15 · gained 15 · +3.70 EP · +13.2% win probability
154 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 88 yards from the MIN 11 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
+0.13
Success rate
47%
Yards
842
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.0171%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.2372%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13+0.3831%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.0342%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.4740%
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-0.230%
Vikings0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Vikings3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Vikings1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Seahawks6Vikings0
Seahawks7Vikings0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Vikings 10
Seahawks7Vikings6
Seahawks7Vikings7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Seahawks 7
Seahawks10Vikings7
Field goal12 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Vikings 33
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter53 plays
Punt3 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Seahawks16Vikings7
Seahawks17Vikings7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Seahawks 24 to the Vikings 30
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Seahawks17Vikings13
Seahawks17Vikings14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Vikings 15 to the Seahawks 5
No good8 plays, from the Seahawks 21 to the Vikings 26
Seahawks17Vikings20
Seahawks17Vikings21
Touchdown16 plays, from the Vikings 34 to the Seahawks 3
The period ended6 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 48
3rd quarter32 plays
Seahawks17Vikings24
Field goal17 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Seahawks 14
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 36
The period ended8 plays, from the Vikings 15 to the Seahawks 49
4th quarter46 plays
Seahawks17Vikings27
Field goal4 plays, from the Seahawks 21 to the Seahawks 15
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 46
Seahawks17Vikings30
Field goal13 plays, from the Vikings 11 to the Seahawks 1
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Vikings 41
Punt10 plays, from the Vikings 43 to the Seahawks 41
The period ended5 plays, from the Seahawks 1 to the Seahawks 25
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
