2021 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 26, 2021 · SoFi Stadium

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Los Angeles RamsWinner

TB -1 upsetO 55 ✓DomeBuccaneers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Los Angeles Rams 34–24. Biggest swing: Q3 14:12, LA +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 14:12TB — LA LA ball · 3rd & 10LA 65%

(14:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 1-D.Jackson for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 14:12LA +19% win prob(14:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 1-D.Jackson for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 8:11LA +10% win prob(8:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 1-D.Jackson pushed ob at TB 10 for 40 yards (31-A.Winfield).
Q2 · 12:28LA +9% win prob(12:28) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 1:30LA +9% win prob(1:30) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 12-V.Jefferson to TB 24 for 21 yards (45-D.White).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Rams
Offensive plays	71	61
Total yards	446 (edge)	409
Yards per play	6.3	6.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.18	0.23 (edge)
Success rate	52% (edge)	43%
Dropback rate	85%	64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.22	0.45 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02 (edge)	-0.18
Third downs	6/13	10/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	27 (edge)	21
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	0	0

Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs 0.18.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

41/55, 432 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

13.2 expected points added · +3.8% completion over expected

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

27/38, 343 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

17.7 expected points added · +1.0% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Sony MichelRB

20 att, 67 yds, 0 TD

-3.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Ronald JonesRB

5 att, 11 yds, 0 TD

-0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

DeSean JacksonWR

3/5 for 120 yds, 1 TD

13% of team targets · 7.9 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

8/10 for 106 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 8.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 25	5	9	1:50	Punt
2	LA	LA 42	4	6	0:59	Punt
3	TB	TB 11	4	9	2:07	Punt
4	LA	LA 27	6	11	1:37	Punt
5	TB	TB 15	7	37	3:00	Punt
6	LA	LA 5	15	90	8:05	Touchdown
7	TB	TB 24	17	81	8:19	Touchdown
8	LA	LA 25	12	69	3:12	Touchdown
9	TB	TB 25	7	48	0:51	Turnover on downs
10	LA	LA 25	5	75	0:58	Touchdown
11	TB	TB 25	11	80	4:05	Touchdown
12	LA	LA 25	9	75	2:34	Touchdown
13	TB	TB 25	6	2	2:59	Punt
14	LA	TB 37	4	7	1:15	Turnover on downs
15	TB	TB 25	9	67	1:55	Turnover on downs
16	LA	LA 25	14	67	8:00	Turnover on downs
17	TB	TB 23	6	25	1:04	Turnover on downs
18	LA	TB 48	5	9	2:20	Punt
19	TB	TB 12	15	88	3:40	Touchdown
20	LA	LA 49	3	0	1:10	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 90 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	41/55	432	1	0	3	13.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Tom Brady	3	14	4.7	1	0.6
Ronald Jones	5	11	2.2	0	-0.7
Leonard Fournette	4	8	2.0	0	-2.0
Chris Godwin	1	2	2.0	1	2.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Evans	8	10	106	0	19%	8.9
Chris Godwin	6	7	74	0	13%	7.7
Tyler Johnson	3	6	63	0	11%	1.2
Rob Gronkowski	4	8	55	0	15%	-1.6
Giovani Bernard	9	10	51	1	19%	-2.1
Cameron Brate	4	5	35	0	9%	2.6
Leonard Fournette	3	3	26	0	6%	1.5
O.J. Howard	1	1	11	0	2%	0.7
Scott Miller	2	3	11	0	6%	-0.5
Jaelon Darden	1	1	0	0	2%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Devin White	4	3	0.0	0
Antoine Winfield	5	1	0.0	0
Lavonte David	5	0	0.0	0
Shaquil Barrett	3	2	0.0	0
Ross Cockrell	2	2	0.0	2
Dee Delaney	4	0	0.0	0
Mike Edwards	3	0	0.0	0
William Gholston	2	1	1.0	0
Jordan Whitehead	3	0	0.0	0
Carlton Davis	2	1	0.0	0

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	27/38	343	4	0	1	17.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Sony Michel	20	67	3.4	-3.6
Jake Funk	1	6	6.0	-0.2
Robert Woods	1	5	5.0	-0.1
Matthew Stafford	2	-2	-1.0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeSean Jackson	3	5	120	1	13%	7.9
Cooper Kupp	9	12	96	2	32%	5.0
Van Jefferson	4	6	42	0	16%	0.2
Tyler Higbee	5	5	40	1	13%	5.3
Robert Woods	3	6	33	0	16%	2.3
Sony Michel	3	4	12	0	11%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kenny Young	7	2	1.0	0
Jalen Ramsey	7	1	0.0	0
Darious Williams	5	1	0.0	0
A'Shawn Robinson	3	3	0.0	0
Jordan Fuller	3	2	0.0	0
Taylor Rapp	4	1	0.0	1
Leonard Floyd	2	2	1.0	0
David Long	4	0	0.0	0
Aaron Donald	2	1	1.0	1
Sebastian Joseph	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -1
Closing total: 55
TB moneyline: -106
LA moneyline: -104

Buccaneers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 55; the game landed 58 — over by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: TB 7 days · LA 7 days
Coaches: Bruce Arians vs Sean McVay