For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Buccaneers173 of 184 plays carry both curves
(14:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 1-D.Jackson for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +19.2 for RamsExpected points +6.61 for RamsThe model had Rams 11 points higher than the market did.play 93
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 14:12LA +19% win prob(14:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 1-D.Jackson for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 8:11LA +10% win prob(8:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 1-D.Jackson pushed ob at TB 10 for 40 yards (31-A.Winfield).
2nd · 12:28LA +9% win prob(12:28) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:30LA +9% win prob(1:30) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 12-V.Jefferson to TB 24 for 21 yards (45-D.White).
3rd · 9:07LA +8% win prob(9:07) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 2-R.Woods to LA 45 for 20 yards (30-D.Delaney).
2nd · 0:59LA +7% win prob(:59) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 10-C.Kupp pushed ob at TB 2 for 22 yards (30-D.Delaney).
2nd · 6:09
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cooper Kupp's 2-yard touchdown catch with 0:54 left in the 2nd put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd12:28Tyler Higbee·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+70–7
3rd7:29Cooper Kupp·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+714–28
3rd3:14Matt Gay·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap M.Orzech+314–31
3rd1:17Ryan Succop·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap C.Tinker+317–31
4th8:17Matt Gay·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap M.Orzech+317–34
4th1:14Giovani Bernard·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+724–34
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Buccaneerscategory by categoryRams
Buccaneers3–4Rams
446Total yards409
6.3Yards per play6.7
52%Success rate43%
46%Third-down rate67%
3Red-zone touchdowns3
6Explosive plays8
27First downs21
3Sacks taken1
0Turnovers0
The read
Rams ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.45 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.18Buccaneers: +0.18 expected points added per play
+0.23Rams: +0.23 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.22Buccaneers: +0.22 expected points added per play
+0.45Rams: +0.45 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.02Buccaneers: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.18Rams: −0.18 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 71 snaps at a 85% dropback rate against Rams’s 61 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 4, Rams 5.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs 0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekFourth Down
LA's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 21 team-games charted in week 3 — 20.0 points clear of the next team along.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.8 points.
TB's early-down pass rate, 83.9%, sat 19.9 points above their season number of 64.1% — they passed early by 2.0 times their own 9.9-point weekly swing.
56 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.9 points.
LA's sack or hit rate turned over: 22.2% in week 2 against 8.3% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
60 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -12 pts to 28 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −5.8 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−1.21× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Rams8.3%
inside their normal wobble · −4.4 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (−0.94× that swing) · 60 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTB's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 83.9%, 19.9 points above their season mean of 64.1% and 2.0 times their own 9.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
78Tristan WirfsT · Every snap100%73 snaps
65Alex CappaG · Every snap100%73 snaps
74Ali MarpetG · Every snap100%73 snaps
76Donovan SmithT · Every snap100%73 snaps
12Tom BradyQB · Every snap100%73 snaps
66Ryan JensenC · Every snap100%73 snaps
14Chris GodwinWR · Full-time96%70 snaps
13Mike EvansWR · Full-time84%61 snaps
87Rob GronkowskiTE · Heavy rotation62%45 snaps
18Tyler JohnsonWR · Rotational47%34 snaps
25Giovani BernardRB · Rotational45%33 snaps
84Cameron BrateTE · Rotational45%33 snaps
10Scott MillerWR · Rotational44%32 snaps
7Leonard FournetteRB · Rotational36%26 snaps
80O.J. HowardTE · Situational19%14 snaps
27Ronald JonesRB · Situational16%12 snaps
1Jaelon DardenWR · Situational4%3 snaps
72Josh WellsT · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 5
Jason Pierre-PaulDEKhalil DavisDTNick LeverettGKyle TraskQBJaydon MickensWR
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Stafford pass+15% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(14:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 1-D.Jackson for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 14:12 · Rams · 3rd & 10 at LA 25 · gained 75 · +6.61 EP · +14.6% win probability
171 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 184 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 184 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 95 yards from the LA 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
184 of 184 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
184
EPA per play
+0.10
Success rate
42%
Yards
853
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50+0.1684%
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.3771%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.0938%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.1088%
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7+0.2443%
Rams0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Buccaneers0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 34
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 42 to the Rams 48
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 11 to the Buccaneers 20
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 27 to the Rams 38
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 15 to the Rams 48
The period ended11 plays, from the Rams 5 to the Buccaneers 26
2nd quarter50 plays
Buccaneers0Rams6
Buccaneers0Rams7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Buccaneers 24 to the Buccaneers 6
Buccaneers6Rams7
Buccaneers7Rams7
Touchdown19 plays, from the Buccaneers 24 to the Rams 2
Buccaneers7Rams13
Buccaneers7Rams14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Buccaneers 2
No good11 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Rams 37
3rd quarter50 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.9 seconds
Buccaneers7Rams20
Buccaneers7Rams21
Touchdown5 plays
Buccaneers13Rams21
Buccaneers14Rams21
Touchdown12 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Rams 1
Buccaneers14Rams27
Buccaneers14Rams28
Touchdown9 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Buccaneers 10
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 40
Buccaneers14Rams31
Field goal4 plays, from the Buccaneers 37 to the Buccaneers 30
Buccaneers17Rams31
Field goal9 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Rams 8
The period ended4 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 36
4th quarter45 plays
Buccaneers17Rams34
Field goal12 plays, from the Rams 38 to the Buccaneers 8
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Buccaneers 23 to the Buccaneers 48
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 48 to the Buccaneers 33
Buccaneers23Rams34
Buccaneers24Rams34
Touchdown16 plays, from the Buccaneers 12 to the Rams 7
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
