2021 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 26, 2021 · New Era Field

Washington Commanders

Buffalo BillsWinner

BUF -7.5 ✓O 45.5 ✓21 mph windBills closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 22.

Buffalo Bills 43–21 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:17, BUF +9% win probability on one snap. Played in 21 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 14:17WAS — BUF BUF ball · 3rd & 15BUF 66%

(14:17) (Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen pass deep right to 13-G.Davis to BUF 43 for 23 yards (53-J.Bostic; 29-K.Fuller).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 14:17BUF +9% win prob(14:17) (Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen pass deep right to 13-G.Davis to BUF 43 for 23 yards (53-J.Bostic; 29-K.Fuller).
Q1 · 11:01BUF +9% win prob(11:01) (Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen pass deep right to 1-E.Sanders for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught along sideline.
Q1 · 3:15WAS +5% win prob(3:15) (Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen pass short left to 26-D.Singletary to WAS 35 for no gain (52-J.Davis).
Q2 · 7:50BUF +4% win prob(7:50) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke scrambles right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Commanders	Bills
Offensive plays	50	75
Total yards	290	484 (edge)
Yards per play	5.8	6.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.19	0.24 (edge)
Success rate	34%	49% (edge)
Dropback rate	60%	64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.01	0.42 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.47	-0.10 (edge)
Third downs	3/11	9/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	5 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	12	29 (edge)
Sacks taken	1	0 (edge)
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs -0.19.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

32/43, 358 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

17.3 expected points added · +13.9% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Taylor HeinickeQB

14/24, 212 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

4.9 expected points added · -6.3% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

Zack MossRB

13 att, 60 yds, 0 TD

3.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Antonio GibsonRB

12 att, 31 yds, 0 TD

-3.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Cole BeasleyWR

11/13 for 98 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · 3.6 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Emmanuel SandersWR

5/6 for 94 yds, 2 TD

14% of team targets · 7.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BUF	BUF 25	10	80	4:07	Touchdown
2	WAS	WAS 21	5	19	2:39	Punt
3	BUF	BUF 24	10	41	5:05	Turnover on downs
4	WAS	WAS 35	3	17	0:58	Fumble
5	BUF	BUF 48	9	44	4:12	Touchdown
6	WAS	WAS 25	4	14	1:22	Interception
7	BUF	WAS 17	4	17	0:55	Touchdown
8	WAS	WAS 25	4	75	0:51	Touchdown
9	WAS	BUF 24	7	24	2:12	Touchdown
10	BUF	BUF 25	6	24	2:12	Punt
11	WAS	WAS 14	4	7	1:58	Punt
12	BUF	BUF 42	7	55	1:52	Turnover on downs
13	WAS	WAS 25	6	15	1:11	Punt
14	BUF	BUF 20	5	51	0:26	Turnover on downs
15	WAS	WAS 40	6	15	2:00	Punt
16	BUF	BUF 7	18	98	8:17	Touchdown
17	WAS	WAS 11	4	8	1:39	Interception
18	BUF	WAS 17	4	6	0:53	Turnover on downs
19	WAS	WAS 25	5	3	1:23	Punt
20	BUF	BUF 29	4	9	1:09	Punt
21	WAS	WAS 2	7	20	3:02	Turnover on downs
22	BUF	WAS 22	4	22	1:08	Touchdown
23	WAS	WAS 25	12	73	5:08	Touchdown
24	BUF	BUF 25	9	37	5:21	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 98 scrimmage yards over 18 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Taylor Heinicke	14/24	212	2	2	1	4.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Antonio Gibson	12	31	2.6	0	-3.6
J.D. McKissic	3	23	7.7	0	0.6
Taylor Heinicke	8	21	2.6	1	-5.3
Cam Sims	1	7	7.0	0	0.4
Dyami Brown	1	-4	-4.0	0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Antonio Gibson	1	2	73	1	8%	6.2
Terry McLaurin	4	7	62	0	29%	-4.9
Logan Thomas	4	4	42	1	17%	3.4
J.D. McKissic	2	2	15	0	8%	1.4
Cam Sims	1	2	15	0	8%	1.2
Adam Humphries	1	4	7	0	17%	-4.3
Dyami Brown	0	2	0	0	8%	-1.8
Taylor Heinicke	1	1	-2	0	4%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Cole Holcomb	8	5	0
Kendall Fuller	7	3	0
Kamren Curl	4	5	0
Landon Collins	4	3	0
Benjamin St-Juste	5	2	1
Jon Bostic	2	4	0
Jamin Davis	3	1	0
Jonathan Allen	1	1	0
Montez Sweat	1	1	0
Chase Young	1	1	0

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	32/43	358	4	0	0	17.3
Mitchell Trubisky	1/1	1	0	0	0	-0.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Zack Moss	13	60	4.6	0	3.0
Devin Singletary	11	26	2.4	0	-4.1
Mitchell Trubisky	4	19	4.8	0	-0.8
Josh Allen	4	9	2.3	1	-1.3
Isaiah McKenzie	1	8	8.0	0	0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cole Beasley	11	13	98	0	30%	3.6
Emmanuel Sanders	5	6	94	2	14%	7.9
Stefon Diggs	6	10	62	0	23%	-0.4
Dawson Knox	4	5	49	1	12%	4.6
Zack Moss	3	3	31	1	7%	3.6
Gabe Davis	1	1	23	0	2%	3.6
Tommy Sweeney	2	2	2	0	5%	-0.6
Devin Singletary	1	2	0	0	5%	-3.9
Reggie Gilliam	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Tremaine Edmunds	5	2	0.0	0	0
Matt Milano	4	2	0.0	0	1
Gregory Rousseau	3	1	0.0	0	0
Micah Hyde	3	1	0.0	1	2
Star Lotulelei	1	2	1.0	0	0
Tre'Davious White	2	1	0.0	0	0
Levi Wallace	2	0	0.0	0	0
Ed Oliver	2	0	0.0	0	0
Tyler Matakevich	1	1	0.0	0	0
Taron Johnson	1	1	0.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -7.5
Closing total: 45.5
WAS moneyline: +281
BUF moneyline: -330

Bills closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 22.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 64 — over by 18.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather: 67°F, wind 21 mph
Referee: Tony Corrente
Rest: WAS 10 days · BUF 7 days
Coaches: Ron Rivera vs Sean McDermott

Wind at 21 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.