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Washington Commanders 21 at Buffalo Bills 43. Final.
Bills -7.5 ✓O 45.5 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 3
Buffalo Bills 43, Commanders 21 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 14:17, 3rd and 15, on Gabe Davis — 9.5 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 14:17 · 3rd and 15
Gabe Davis
Bills
(14:17) (Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen pass deep right to 13-G.Davis to BUF 43 for 23 yards (53-J.Bostic; 29-K.Fuller).
18.6 mph wind
Bills closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 22.
Buffalo Bills 43–21 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:17, Bills +9.5% win probability on one snap. Played in 18.6 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
9.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Emmanuel SandersBillsQ1 11:01(11:01) (Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen pass deep right to 1-E.Sanders for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught along sideline.
9.0pts
Devin SingletaryCommandersQ1 3:15(3:15) (Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen pass short left to 26-D.Singletary to WAS 35 for no gain (52-J.Davis).
4.9pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Bills won this one — no giveaways, against Commanders at 3 giveaways.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bills won this one — 9 of 14 on third down, against Commanders at 3 of 11 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.24 expected points per snap, against Commanders at -0.19 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bills won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Commanders at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Commanders166 of 174 plays carry both curves
(14:17) (Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen pass deep right to 13-G.Davis to BUF 43 for 23 yards (53-J.Bostic; 29-K.Fuller).
Swing +9.5 for BillsExpected points +3.56 for BillsThe model had Commanders 17 points higher than the market did.play 6
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 14:17BUF +9% win prob(14:17) (Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen pass deep right to 13-G.Davis to BUF 43 for 23 yards (53-J.Bostic; 29-K.Fuller).
1st · 11:01BUF +9% win prob(11:01) (Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen pass deep right to 1-E.Sanders for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught along sideline.
1st · 3:15WAS +5% win prob(3:15) (Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen pass short left to 26-D.Singletary to WAS 35 for no gain (52-J.Davis).
2nd · 7:50BUF +4% win prob(7:50) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke scrambles right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 5:34WAS +4% win prob(5:34) 3-M.Haack punts 37 yards to WAS 14, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.
2nd · 3:42WAS +4% win prob(3:42) 5-T.Way punts 42 yards to BUF 37, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 19-I.McKenzie to WAS 30 for 33 yards (95-C.Toohill, 96-J.Smith-Williams). Return credited to WAS 48 (spot of foul). PENALTY on BUF-44-T.Matakevich, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 48.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Emmanuel Sanders's 28-yard touchdown catch with 11:01 left in the 1st put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
4th5:27Logan Thomas·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Taylor Heinickefrom Taylor Heinicke+721–43
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Commanderscategory by categoryBills
Commanders0–9Bills
290Total yards484
5.8Yards per play6.5
34%Success rate49%
27%Third-down rate64%
2Red-zone touchdowns4
3Explosive plays5
12First downs29
1Sacks taken0
3Turnovers0
The read
Bills ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.47 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.19Commanders: −0.19 expected points added per play
+0.24Bills: +0.24 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.01Commanders: −0.01 expected points added per play
+0.42Bills: +0.42 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.47Commanders: −0.47 expected points added per play
−0.10Bills: −0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 50 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Bills’s 75 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 3, Bills 7.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs -0.19.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
WAS's pass rate over expected turned over: +7.5 pts in week 2 against −10.0 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
50 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
WAS's early-down pass rate turned over: 75.5% in week 2 against 48.6% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 23 pts
right on their number · −0.9 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.12× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Bills10.0%
inside their normal wobble · −5.5 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.77× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was BUF's fourth-and-short go rate, 20.0% against a season mean of 37.5% — and BUF swings 18.7 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Jos.Allen pass+9% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(14:17) (Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen pass deep right to 13-G.Davis to BUF 43 for 23 yards (53-J.Bostic; 29-K.Fuller).
Q1 14:17 · Bills · 3rd & 15 at BUF 20 · gained 23 · +3.56 EP · +8.9% win probability
164 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 174 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 93 yards from the BUF 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
174 of 174 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
174
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
41%
Yards
771
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR60+0.3267%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.1153%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.1443%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.2117%
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR6-0.1133%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Bills2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Commanders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Commanders0Bills6
Commanders0Bills7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Commanders 28
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 21 to the Commanders 30
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Bills 24 to the Commanders 35
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Commanders 35 to the Commanders 37
The period ended6 plays, from the Bills 48 to the Commanders 25
2nd quarter58 plays
Commanders0Bills13
Commanders0Bills14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Commanders 21 to the Commanders 7
Intercepted4 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 39
Commanders0Bills20
Commanders0Bills21
Touchdown4 plays, from the Commanders 17 to the Commanders 14
Commanders6Bills21
Commanders7Bills21
Touchdown4 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 27
Commanders13Bills21
Commanders14Bills21
Touchdown7 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 49
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 14 to the Commanders 21
Commanders14Bills24
Field goal9 plays, from the Bills 42 to the Commanders 3
Punt7 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 45
Commanders14Bills27
Field goal7 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Commanders 29
3rd quarter42 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 40 to the Bills 41
Commanders14Bills33
Touchdown19 plays, from the Bills 7 to the Commanders 5
Intercepted5 plays, from the Commanders 11 to the Commanders 13
Commanders14Bills36
Field goal4 plays, from the Commanders 17 to the Commanders 11
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 28
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter37 plays
Punt2 plays
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Commanders 2 to the Commanders 23
Commanders14Bills42
Commanders14Bills43
Touchdown4 plays, from the Commanders 22 to the Commanders 2
Commanders20Bills43
Commanders21Bills43
Touchdown14 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Bills 2
The period ended10 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Commanders 38
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bills -7.5
Closing total
45.5
Commanders moneyline
+281
Bills moneyline
-330
Bills closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 22.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 64 — over by 18.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
New Era Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather
Mild, 63°F at kickoff; windy at 19 mph out of the west; clear.
Referee
Tony Corrente
Rest
Commanders 10 days · Bills 7 days
Coaches
Ron Rivera vs Sean McDermott
NoteWind at 18.6 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
1st · 14:17WAS +3% win prob(14:17) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BUF-1-E.Sanders, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 25 - No Play.
1st · 2:24WAS +3% win prob(2:24) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short middle to 82-L.Thomas to BUF 46 for 17 yards (21-J.Poyer, 27-T.White). FUMBLES (27-T.White), RECOVERED by BUF-58-M.Milano at BUF 48.
