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Arizona Cardinals 37 at Los Angeles Rams 20. Final.
Rams -3.5 upsetO 53.5 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 4
Arizona Cardinals 37, Rams 20 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 10:49, 2nd and 13, on Maxx Williams — 16.4 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 10:49 · 2nd and 13
Maxx Williams
Cardinals
(10:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 87-M.Williams for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Rams closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Arizona Cardinals 37–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 10:49, Cardinals +16.4% win probability on one snap.
16.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
A.J. GreenCardinalsQ1 5:58(5:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 18-A.Green for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LA-22-D.Long, Defensive Holding, declined.
9.1pts
Cooper KuppRamsQ2 5:47(5:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 10-C.Kupp to ARI 23 for 35 yards (3-B.Baker).
10.9pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Cardinals won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Rams at 6 chunk plays.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Cardinals won this one — no giveaways, against Rams at 2 giveaways.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cardinals won this one — +0.31 expected points per snap, against Rams at +0.01 expected points per snap.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Cardinals won this one — +0.16 expected points per carry, against Rams at -0.16 expected points per carry.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Cardinals180 of 190 plays carry both curves
(10:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 87-M.Williams for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −16.4 for RamsExpected points −2.88 for RamsThe model had Cardinals 9 points higher than the market did.play 52
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 10:49LA +16% win prob(10:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 87-M.Williams for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 5:47LA +11% win prob(5:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 10-C.Kupp to ARI 23 for 35 yards (3-B.Baker).
1st · 5:58LA +9% win prob(5:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 18-A.Green for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LA-22-D.Long, Defensive Holding, declined.
2nd · 10:44ARI +9% win prob(10:44) 25-S.Michel right tackle to LA 25 for no gain (44-M.Golden). FUMBLES (44-M.Golden), RECOVERED by ARI-3-B.Baker at LA 26. 3-B.Baker to LA 21 for 5 yards (63-A.Corbett).
1st · 7:41LA +8% win prob(7:41) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 10-D.Hopkins ran ob at LA 45 for 25 yards.
1st · 12:34LA +8% win prob(12:34) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 2-R.Woods to ARI 28 for 18 yards (20-M.Wilson).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Maxx Williams's 14-yard touchdown catch with 10:49 left in the 2nd put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:22Matt Gay·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap M.Orzech+30–3
4th3:42Matt Prater·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder A.Lee · snap A.Brewer+337–13
4th1:17Robert Woods·14-yd TD catch14-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+737–20
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cardinalscategory by categoryRams
Cardinals7–2Rams
467Total yards402
6.4Yards per play6.4
56%Success rate59%
62%Third-down rate55%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
11Explosive plays6
26First downs21
3Sacks taken0
0Turnovers2
The read
Cardinals ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Rams, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.44 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.31Cardinals: +0.31 expected points added per play
+0.01Rams: +0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.44Cardinals: +0.44 expected points added per play
+0.09Rams: +0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.16Cardinals: +0.16 expected points added per play
−0.16Rams: −0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 73 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Rams’s 63 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 6, Rams 4.
NoteCardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.31 expected points added per play vs 0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ARI's pass rate over expected turned over: +7.4 pts in week 3 against −3.3 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
73 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.8 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−0.96× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Rams7.7%
leaned — stayed blocked · −5.0 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (−1.08× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 7.7%, 5.0 points below their season mean of 12.7% and 1.1 times their own 4.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Murray pass+14% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(5:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 18-A.Green for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LA-22-D.Long, Defensive Holding, declined.
Q1 5:58 · Cardinals · 3rd & 6 at LA 41 · gained 41 · +5.01 EP · +13.9% win probability
178 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 190 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 190 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 94 yards from the ARI 1 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
190 of 190 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
190
EPA per play
+0.10
Success rate
50%
Yards
866
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR58+0.1567%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.1563%
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR21+0.7048%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.3017%
Cardinals2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR6+0.0633%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-1.6140%
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.010%
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
snapsepapass rate
190 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
190 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Cardinals0Rams3
Field goal11 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Cardinals 23
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 30
Intercepted2 plays, from the Rams 37 to the Rams 44
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Cardinals6Rams3
Cardinals7Rams3
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cardinals 13 to the Rams 40
Cardinals7Rams9
Cardinals7Rams10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Cardinals 14
The period ended4 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 31
2nd quarter71 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Cardinals13Rams10
Cardinals14Rams10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cardinals 31 to the Rams 11
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost2 plays
Cardinals20Rams10
Cardinals21Rams10
Touchdown7 plays, from the Rams 21 to the Rams 1
Punt9 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Cardinals 49
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 12 to the Cardinals 15
Cardinals21Rams13
Field goal10 plays, from the Rams 48 to the Cardinals 4
Cardinals24Rams13
Field goal25 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Rams 5
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Cardinals27Rams13
Field goal11 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Rams 34
No good10 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Cardinals 27
Cardinals33Rams13
Cardinals34Rams13
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cardinals 36 to the Rams 1
The period ended9 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Cardinals 35
4th quarter36 plays
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Cardinals 27 to the Cardinals 1
Cardinals37Rams13
Field goal13 plays, from the Cardinals 1 to the Rams 3
Cardinals37Rams19
Cardinals37Rams20
Touchdown11 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Cardinals 14
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
