2021 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 3, 2021 · SoFi Stadium

Arizona CardinalsWinner

Los Angeles Rams

LA -3.5 upsetO 53.5 ✓DomeRams closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Arizona Cardinals 37–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 10:49, LA +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 10:49ARI — LA ARI ball · 2nd & 13LA 58%

(10:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 87-M.Williams for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 10:49LA +16% win prob(10:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 87-M.Williams for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 5:47LA +11% win prob(5:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 10-C.Kupp to ARI 23 for 35 yards (3-B.Baker).
Q1 · 5:58LA +9% win prob(5:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 18-A.Green for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LA-22-D.Long, Defensive Holding, declined.
Q2 · 10:44ARI +9% win prob(10:44) 25-S.Michel right tackle to LA 25 for no gain (44-M.Golden). FUMBLES (44-M.Golden), RECOVERED by ARI-3-B.Baker at LA 26. 3-B.Baker to LA 21 for 5 yards (63-A.Corbett).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cardinals	Rams
Offensive plays	73	63
Total yards	467 (edge)	402
Yards per play	6.4 (edge)	6.4
Expected points added / play	0.31 (edge)	0.01
Success rate	56%	59% (edge)
Dropback rate	53%	68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.44 (edge)	0.09
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.16 (edge)	-0.16
Third downs	8/13 (edge)	6/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	11 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	26 (edge)	21
Sacks taken	3	0 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Cardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.31 expected points added per play vs 0.01.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

26/41, 280 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

2.4 expected points added · -2.2% completion over expected

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

24/32, 268 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

13.9 expected points added · +10.5% completion over expected

Rushing · ARI

Chase EdmondsRB

12 att, 120 yds, 0 TD

7.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LA

Darrell HendersonRB

14 att, 89 yds, 0 TD

2.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Van JeffersonWR

6/6 for 90 yds, 1 TD

15% of team targets · 8.2 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

DeAndre HopkinsWR

4/7 for 67 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 3.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LA	LA 25	10	57	3:42	Turnover on downs
2	ARI	ARI 25	5	-9	1:26	Punt
3	LA	LA 37	2	7	0:55	Interception
4	ARI	ARI 13	7	97	3:07	Touchdown
5	LA	LA 25	11	75	4:58	Touchdown
6	ARI	ARI 25	13	75	5:08	Touchdown
7	LA	LA 25	2	0	0:09	Fumble
8	ARI	LA 21	6	26	1:51	Touchdown
9	LA	LA 25	8	21	1:18	Punt
10	ARI	ARI 12	4	3	0:45	Punt
11	LA	LA 48	9	63	3:19	Turnover on downs
12	ARI	ARI 25	18	79	3:18	Turnover on downs
13	LA	LA 25	2	0	0:04	End of half
14	ARI	ARI 25	11	38	4:45	Turnover on downs
15	LA	LA 25	9	33	3:52	Turnover on downs
16	ARI	ARI 36	10	64	5:09	Touchdown
17	LA	LA 25	14	71	4:09	Turnover on downs
18	ARI	ARI 1	12	94	8:27	Turnover on downs
19	LA	LA 25	11	75	2:24	Touchdown
20	ARI	ARI 14	3	0	1:14	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cardinals gained 97 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kyler Murray	24/32	268	2	0	3	13.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Chase Edmonds	12	120	10.0	0	7.1
James Conner	18	50	2.8	2	0.4
Kyler Murray	6	39	6.5	0	1.3
Rondale Moore	2	9	4.5	0	-0.4
Colt McCoy	2	-2	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeAndre Hopkins	4	7	67	0	24%	3.2
A.J. Green	5	6	67	1	21%	6.5
Maxx Williams	5	5	66	1	17%	7.0
Rondale Moore	3	3	28	0	10%	2.6
Chase Edmonds	4	5	19	0	17%	0.7
James Conner	2	2	16	0	7%	1.0
Christian Kirk	1	1	5	0	3%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Jalen Thompson	5	5	0	1
Marco Wilson	6	2	0	0
Budda Baker	4	3	0	0
Isaiah Simmons	4	3	0	0
Jordan Hicks	4	2	0	0
Robert Alford	4	0	0	0
Byron Murphy	3	0	1	1
Markus Golden	2	0	0	0
Demetrius Harris	2	0	0	0
Ezekiel Turner	1	0	0	0

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	26/41	280	2	1	0	2.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Darrell Henderson	14	89	6.4	2.0
Matthew Stafford	6	21	3.5	1.8
Sony Michel	3	11	3.7	-5.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Van Jefferson	6	6	90	1	15%	8.2
Cooper Kupp	5	13	64	0	32%	-4.0
Robert Woods	4	6	48	1	15%	4.5
Tyler Higbee	4	6	36	0	15%	-3.5
Darrell Henderson	5	6	27	0	15%	-0.4
Johnny Mundt	1	1	9	0	2%	1.3
DeSean Jackson	1	3	6	0	7%	-3.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Taylor Rapp	6	6	0.0	0
Jordan Fuller	5	2	0.0	0
Sebastian Joseph	5	1	1.0	0
David Long	5	1	0.0	0
Kenny Young	3	2	0.0	0
Leonard Floyd	5	0	1.0	0
Darious Williams	4	1	0.0	0
A'Shawn Robinson	2	2	0.0	0
Jalen Ramsey	3	1	0.0	2
Troy Reeder	1	2	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LA -3.5
Closing total: 53.5
ARI moneyline: +178
LA moneyline: -200

Rams closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 53.5; the game landed 57 — over by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: ARI 7 days · LA 7 days
Coaches: Kliff Kingsbury vs Sean McVay

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.