For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Ravens170 of 179 plays carry both curves
(7:18) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 5-M.Brown for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-M.Purcell].
Swing −11.5 for BroncosExpected points −4.80 for BroncosThe model had Broncos 3 points higher than the market did.play 63
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 7:18DEN +11% win prob(7:18) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 5-M.Brown for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-M.Purcell].
1st · 1:02DEN +8% win prob(1:02) 33-J.Williams right tackle to BAL 9 for 31 yards (44-M.Humphrey).
2nd · 3:59DEN +6% win prob(3:59) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 5-M.Brown to BAL 43 for 32 yards (22-K.Jackson).
1st · 12:51BAL +6% win prob(12:51) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater sacked at DEN 42 for -9 yards (99-O.Oweh).
2nd · 11:34DEN +6% win prob(11:34) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 89-M.Andrews to DEN 23 for 24 yards (31-J.Simmons).
2nd · 9:30BAL +5% win prob(9:30) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater sacked at DEN 21 for -6 yards (54-T.Bowser).
3rd · 7:33BAL +5% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Marquise Brown's 49-yard touchdown catch with 7:18 left in the 2nd put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
2nd0:02Justin Tucker·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap N.Moore+317–7
4th13:43Justin Tucker·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap N.Moore+320–7
4th1:54Justin Tucker·20-yd field goal20-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap N.Moore+323–7
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ravenscategory by categoryBroncos
Ravens8–0Broncos
406Total yards254
5.8Yards per play4.3
49%Success rate36%
41%Third-down rate21%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
6Explosive plays5
20First downs14
3Sacks taken5
0Turnovers1
The read
Ravens ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.10Ravens: +0.10 expected points added per play
−0.22Broncos: −0.22 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.24Ravens: +0.24 expected points added per play
−0.36Broncos: −0.36 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.10Ravens: −0.10 expected points added per play
+0.15Broncos: +0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 70 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Broncos’s 59 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 4, Broncos 2.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.22.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DEN's early-down pass rate turned over: 38.5% in week 3 against 66.7% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 16 pts
leaned — got home · +11.5 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+1.57× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Broncos17.1%
inside their normal wobble · +4.1 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (+0.90× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBAL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 25.6%, 11.5 points above their season mean of 14.1% and 1.6 times their own 7.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 1 never used
65Patrick MekariG · Every snap100%73 snaps
70Kevin ZeitlerG · Every snap100%73 snaps
77Bradley BozemanC · Every snap100%73 snaps
8Lamar JacksonQB · Every snap100%73 snaps
14Sammy WatkinsWR · Heavy rotation73%53 snaps
42Patrick RicardFB · Heavy rotation70%51 snaps
89Mark AndrewsTE · Heavy rotation63%46 snaps
28Latavius MurrayRB · Heavy rotation62%45 snaps
5Marquise BrownWR · Heavy rotation62%45 snaps
72Ben PowersG · Heavy rotation53%39 snaps
78Alejandro VillanuevaT · Heavy rotation52%38 snaps
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
L.Jackson pass+15% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(7:18) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 5-M.Brown for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-M.Purcell].
Q2 7:18 · Ravens · 2nd & 10 at DEN 49 · gained 49 · +4.80 EP · +14.6% win probability
168 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 179 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 78 yards from the BAL 20 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
-0.08
Success rate
39%
Yards
660
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44-0.2270%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR22+0.6755%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR17+0.2088%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR14-0.1929%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.3690%
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR10-0.1830%
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.0140%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Ravens0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Ravens 49
Punt7 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Ravens 33
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 33 to the Ravens 47
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Ravens 48
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 41
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 4 to the Ravens 7
The period ended4 plays, from the Broncos 43 to the Ravens 9
2nd quarter51 plays
Ravens0Broncos6
Ravens0Broncos7
Touchdown3 plays, from the Ravens 6 to the Ravens 3
Ravens6Broncos7
Ravens7Broncos7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Broncos 11
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 24 to the Broncos 27
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.0 seconds
Ravens13Broncos7
Ravens14Broncos7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Ravens 40 to the Broncos 49
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 21 to midfield
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 11 to the Broncos 49
Punt5 plays
Ravens17Broncos7
Field goal9 plays, from the Broncos 26 to the Broncos 13
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 31
Punt9 plays, from the Broncos 22 to the Broncos 44
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 12 to the Ravens 30
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 35 to the Broncos 48
The period ended10 plays, from the Ravens 24 to the Broncos 33
4th quarter50 plays
Ravens20Broncos7
Field goal5 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Broncos 28
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 30
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 2 to the Ravens 11
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 47 to the Ravens 40
Ravens23Broncos7
Field goal16 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Broncos 2
Intercepted12 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Ravens 5
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
