2021 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 3, 2021 · Empower Field at Mile High

Baltimore RavensWinner

Denver Broncos

DEN -1 upsetU 44 ✓Broncos closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Baltimore Ravens 23–7. Biggest swing: Q2 7:18, DEN +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 7:18BAL — DEN BAL ball · 2nd & 10BAL 57%

(7:18) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 5-M.Brown for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-M.Purcell].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 7:18DEN +11% win prob(7:18) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 5-M.Brown for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-M.Purcell].
Q1 · 1:02DEN +8% win prob(1:02) 33-J.Williams right tackle to BAL 9 for 31 yards (44-M.Humphrey).
Q2 · 3:59DEN +6% win prob(3:59) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 5-M.Brown to BAL 43 for 32 yards (22-K.Jackson).
Q1 · 12:51BAL +6% win prob(12:51) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater sacked at DEN 42 for -9 yards (99-O.Oweh).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Ravens	Broncos
Offensive plays	70	59
Total yards	406 (edge)	254
Yards per play	5.8 (edge)	4.3
Expected points added / play	0.10 (edge)	-0.22
Success rate	49% (edge)	36%
Dropback rate	59%	73%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.24 (edge)	-0.36
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.10	0.15 (edge)
Third downs	7/17 (edge)	3/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	14
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	5
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.22.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

22/37, 316 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

10.4 expected points added · +0.8% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Drew LockQB

12/21, 113 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-9.4 expected points added · -8.1% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Latavius MurrayRB

18 att, 59 yds, 1 TD

-2.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

Melvin GordonRB

9 att, 56 yds, 0 TD

1.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

Marquise BrownWR

4/5 for 91 yds, 1 TD

14% of team targets · 6.1 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

James ProcheWR

5/6 for 74 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 6.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DEN	DEN 25	8	17	3:02	Punt
2	BAL	BAL 20	7	13	2:50	Punt
3	DEN	DEN 33	5	20	1:30	Punt
4	BAL	BAL 20	5	28	2:41	Punt
5	DEN	DEN 20	6	24	2:34	Punt
6	BAL	BAL 4	4	3	0:58	Punt
7	DEN	DEN 43	6	42	2:07	Touchdown
8	BAL	BAL 25	10	75	3:57	Touchdown
9	DEN	DEN 24	5	-3	1:45	Punt
10	BAL	BAL 40	5	60	1:27	Touchdown
11	DEN	DEN 21	7	29	3:10	Punt
12	BAL	BAL 11	5	39	2:57	Punt
13	DEN	DEN 17	4	0	0:31	Punt
14	BAL	DEN 26	5	9	0:31	Turnover on downs
15	BAL	BAL 25	5	4	1:39	Punt
16	DEN	DEN 22	9	22	4:44	Punt
17	BAL	BAL 12	5	10	1:42	Punt
18	DEN	DEN 35	6	18	2:37	Punt
19	BAL	BAL 24	13	63	5:41	Turnover on downs
20	DEN	DEN 25	5	5	1:04	Punt
21	BAL	BAL 2	4	9	2:06	Punt
22	DEN	DEN 47	5	10	2:01	Punt
23	BAL	BAL 20	15	88	6:35	Turnover on downs
24	DEN	DEN 25	9	70	1:48	Interception
25	BAL	BAL 20	1	5	0:03	End of game

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 88 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	22/37	316	1	0	3	10.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Latavius Murray	18	59	3.3	1	-2.4
Lamar Jackson	7	28	4.0	0	1.7
Le'Veon Bell	4	11	2.8	0	-2.6
Devonta Freeman	1	4	4.0	0	-0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marquise Brown	4	5	91	1	14%	6.1
James Proche	5	6	74	0	17%	6.2
Mark Andrews	5	8	67	0	23%	3.1
Sammy Watkins	4	7	49	0	20%	1.3
Devin Duvernay	3	6	31	0	17%	0.9
Patrick Ricard	1	1	4	0	3%	0.0
Le'Veon Bell	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.7
Josh Oliver	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Chris Board	6	3	0.0	0	0
Chuck Clark	5	2	0.0	0	0
Calais Campbell	2	3	0.0	0	0
Tyus Bowser	2	2	2.0	0	0
Anthony Averett	3	1	0.0	1	1
Malik Harrison	1	3	0.0	0	0
Marlon Humphrey	2	1	0.0	0	1
Patrick Queen	2	1	0.0	0	0
Brandon Stephens	1	2	0.0	0	0
Nnamdi Madubuike	2	0	1.0	0	1

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drew Lock	12/21	113	0	1	3	-9.4
Teddy Bridgewater	7/16	65	1	0	2	-7.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Melvin Gordon	9	56	6.2	1.5
Javonte Williams	7	48	6.9	1.0
Teddy Bridgewater	1	2	2.0	1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Courtland Sutton	3	8	47	0	22%	-6.0
Noah Fant	6	10	46	1	27%	1.2
Tim Patrick	3	6	39	0	16%	0.2
Kendall Hinton	1	3	13	0	8%	-0.4
Melvin Gordon	2	4	11	0	11%	-1.7
Javonte Williams	3	3	11	0	8%	-2.1
Albert Okwuegbunam	1	2	11	0	5%	0.4
Diontae Spencer	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kareem Jackson	8	3	0.0	0
Justin Simmons	6	2	0.0	2
Alexander Johnson	5	3	0.0	0
Patrick Surtain	6	0	0.0	0
Von Miller	1	4	0.5	0
Kyle Fuller	4	1	0.0	0
Caden Sterns	3	0	2.0	1
Mike Purcell	2	1	0.0	0
Shelby Harris	2	1	0.0	0
DeShawn Williams	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DEN -1
Closing total: 44
BAL moneyline: +107
DEN moneyline: -118

Broncos closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44; the game landed 30 — under by 14.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 77°F, wind 11 mph
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: BAL 7 days · DEN 7 days
Coaches: John Harbaugh vs Vic Fangio