2021 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 3, 2021 · AT&T Stadium

Carolina Panthers

Dallas CowboysWinner

DAL -4.5 ✓O 51.5 ✓DomeCowboys closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 8.

Dallas Cowboys 36–28. Biggest swing: Q3 14:32, DAL +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 14:32CAR — DAL CAR ball · 1st & 13DAL 55%

(14:32) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 2-Dj.Moore to DAL 39 for 39 yards (18-D.Kazee).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 14:32DAL +11% win prob(14:32) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 2-Dj.Moore to DAL 39 for 39 yards (18-D.Kazee).
Q2 · 7:09DAL +11% win prob(7:09) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold up the middle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 12:54CAR +10% win prob(12:54) 5-Z.Gonzalez 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton.
Q3 · 10:56DAL +10% win prob(10:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 19-A.Cooper for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Panthers	Cowboys
Offensive plays	68	56
Total yards	379	434 (edge)
Yards per play	5.6	7.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.08	0.26 (edge)
Success rate	49%	55% (edge)
Dropback rate	68%	45%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.02	0.40 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.20 (edge)	0.14
Third downs	4/13	3/9 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	12 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	22	24 (edge)
Sacks taken	5	0 (edge)
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Cowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs 0.08.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

Sam DarnoldQB

26/39, 301 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-1.6 expected points added · -0.3% completion over expected

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

14/22, 188 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

6.6 expected points added · -6.2% completion over expected

Rushing · DAL

Ezekiel ElliottRB

20 att, 143 yds, 1 TD

2.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DAL

Tony PollardRB

10 att, 67 yds, 0 TD

1.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

D.J. MooreWR

8/12 for 113 yds, 2 TD

31% of team targets · 3.5 expected points added

Receiving · DAL

Amari CooperWR

3/3 for 69 yds, 1 TD

14% of team targets · 5.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DAL	DAL 25	5	4	1:22	Punt
2	CAR	CAR 20	4	-4	1:31	Punt
3	DAL	DAL 30	10	80	4:40	Touchdown
4	CAR	CAR 25	11	75	4:46	Touchdown
5	DAL	DAL 25	11	80	3:32	Touchdown
6	CAR	CAR 25	15	80	7:07	Touchdown
7	DAL	DAL 25	8	20	2:43	Punt
8	CAR	CAR 9	7	16	2:39	Punt
9	DAL	DAL 32	5	20	0:52	Punt
10	CAR	CAR 12	2	-1	0:48	End of half
11	CAR	CAR 25	7	49	2:11	Turnover on downs
12	DAL	DAL 44	5	56	2:00	Touchdown
13	CAR	CAR 25	5	-3	1:39	Punt
14	DAL	DAL 34	5	66	1:49	Touchdown
15	CAR	CAR 25	8	20	3:44	Interception
16	DAL	CAR 37	4	37	1:20	Touchdown
17	CAR	CAR 25	4	7	0:55	Interception
18	DAL	CAR 29	4	14	1:26	Turnover on downs
19	CAR	CAR 25	12	60	5:58	Touchdown
20	DAL	DAL 25	6	17	2:09	Punt
21	CAR	CAR 20	8	80	2:18	Touchdown
22	DAL	DAL 19	8	40	4:31	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cowboys gained 80 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	26/39	301	2	2	5	-1.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Chuba Hubbard	13	57	4.4	0	-2.2
Sam Darnold	6	35	5.8	2	4.1
Royce Freeman	3	12	4.0	0	2.9
D.J. Moore	1	6	6.0	0	2.4
Robbie Chosen	1	3	3.0	0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
D.J. Moore	8	12	113	2	31%	3.5
Brandon Zylstra	2	2	63	0	5%	6.0
Rodney Smith	5	5	48	0	13%	2.9
Robbie Chosen	5	11	46	0	28%	-3.5
Ian Thomas	3	3	15	0	8%	-0.2
Chuba Hubbard	2	2	14	0	5%	0.1
Terrace Marshall	1	3	2	0	8%	-2.5
Tommy Tremble	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Sean Chandler	3	6	0
Jeremy Chinn	5	1	0
Shaq Thompson	4	1	0
Jermaine Carter	2	2	0
Brian Burns	3	1	1
Haason Reddick	2	1	0
Sam Franklin	3	0	1
C.J. Henderson	3	0	0
A.J. Bouye	2	1	0
D.J. Moore	1	1	0

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Dak Prescott	14/22	188	4	0	0	6.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Ezekiel Elliott	20	143	7.2	1	2.3
Tony Pollard	10	67	6.7	0	1.3
Dak Prescott	4	35	8.8	0	2.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Amari Cooper	3	3	69	1	14%	5.2
Dalton Schultz	6	8	58	1	36%	1.8
Cedrick Wilson	2	2	30	1	9%	3.7
Blake Jarwin	1	3	18	1	14%	-1.1
CeeDee Lamb	2	5	13	0	23%	-2.7
Ezekiel Elliott	0	1	0	0	5%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jayron Kearse	5	1	0.0	0	0
Anthony Brown	6	0	0.0	0	3
Leighton Vander Esch	4	1	0.0	0	0
Chauncey Golston	3	2	0.5	0	0
Damontae Kazee	3	1	0.0	0	0
Jourdan Lewis	3	1	0.0	0	0
Trevon Diggs	4	0	0.0	2	2
Micah Parsons	3	1	1.0	0	0
Malik Hooker	3	0	0.0	0	0
Osa Odighizuwa	2	1	0.5	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DAL -4.5
Closing total: 51.5
CAR moneyline: +186
DAL moneyline: -210

Cowboys closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 8.

Total closed 51.5; the game landed 64 — over by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Jerome Boger
Rest: CAR 10 days · DAL 6 days
Coaches: Matt Rhule vs Mike McCarthy