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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:49 AM ET · 16 to play
Dallas Cowboys 36, Panthers 28 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 14:32, 1st and 13, on D.J. Moore — 11.2 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 14:32 · 1st and 13
D.J. Moore
Panthers
(14:32) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 2-Dj.Moore to DAL 39 for 39 yards (18-D.Kazee).
Dome
Cowboys closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 8.
Dallas Cowboys 36–28. Biggest swing: Q3 14:32, Panthers +11.2% win probability on one snap.
11.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Sam DarnoldPanthersQ2 7:09(7:09) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold up the middle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11.1pts
Zane GonzalezCowboysQ3 12:54(12:54) 5-Z.Gonzalez 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton.
10.4pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Cowboys won this one — 12 chunk plays, against Panthers at 7 chunk plays.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — 4 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Cowboys at 3 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Cowboys won this one — +0.40 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at +0.02 expected points per dropback.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Cowboys won this one — 55% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Panthers at 49% of snaps stayed on schedule.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Panthers167 of 176 plays carry both curves
(14:32) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 2-Dj.Moore to DAL 39 for 39 yards (18-D.Kazee).
Swing −11.2 for CowboysExpected points −3.07 for CowboysThe model had Panthers 7 points higher than the market did.play 92
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 14:32DAL +11% win prob(14:32) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 2-Dj.Moore to DAL 39 for 39 yards (18-D.Kazee).
2nd · 7:09DAL +11% win prob(7:09) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold up the middle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 12:54CAR +10% win prob(12:54) 5-Z.Gonzalez 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton.
3rd · 10:56DAL +10% win prob(10:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 19-A.Cooper for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 0:57DAL +8% win prob(:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles left end ran ob at CAR 33 for 21 yards (21-J.Chinn).
2nd · 2:00CAR +6% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at CAR 16 for -6 yards (94-R.Gregory).
1st · 13:50CAR +5% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Amari Cooper's 35-yard touchdown catch with 10:56 left in the 3rd put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
3rd10:56Amari Cooper·35-yd TD catch35-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak PrescottLead never changed again+714–20
3rd7:24Dalton Schultz·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott · two-point no good+614–26
3rd2:23Cedrick Wilson·23-yd TD catch23-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+714–33
4th15:00Greg Zuerlein·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap J.McQuaide+314–36
4th9:05D.J. Moore·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Darnoldfrom Sam Darnold+721–36
4th4:36D.J. Moore·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Darnoldfrom Sam Darnold+728–36
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Pantherscategory by categoryCowboys
Panthers1–8Cowboys
379Total yards434
5.6Yards per play7.8
49%Success rate55%
31%Third-down rate33%
4Red-zone touchdowns3
7Explosive plays12
22First downs24
5Sacks taken0
2Turnovers1
The read
Cowboys ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.40 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.08Panthers: +0.08 expected points added per play
+0.26Cowboys: +0.26 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.02Panthers: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.40Cowboys: +0.40 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.20Panthers: +0.20 expected points added per play
+0.14Cowboys: +0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 68 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 56 at 45%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 4, Cowboys 6.
NoteCowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs 0.08.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CAR's sack or hit rate turned over: 25.8% in week 3 against 4.0% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
25 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.1 points.
DAL's sack or hit rate turned over: 8.3% in week 3 against 21.7% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 21 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −11.8 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (−1.30× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Cowboys21.7%
inside their normal wobble · +5.5 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+0.97× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDAL's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 38.6%, 18.6 points below their season mean of 57.2% and 1.5 times their own 12.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Prescott scrambles+13% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles left end ran ob at CAR 33 for 21 yards (21-J.Chinn).
Q1 0:57 · Cowboys · 4th & 1 at DAL 46 · gained 21 · +3.49 EP · +12.6% win probability
165 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 80 yards from the CAR 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
45%
Yards
812
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48+0.1073%
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.2668%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.1524%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.1742%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8+0.410%
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.0757%
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 29
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Panthers 24
Panthers0Cowboys6
Panthers0Cowboys7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Panthers 1
Panthers6Cowboys7
Panthers7Cowboys7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Cowboys 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, one linebacker and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
The period ended10 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Panthers 33
2nd quarter47 plays
Panthers7Cowboys13
Touchdown4 plays, from the Panthers 32 to the Panthers 18
Panthers13Cowboys13
Panthers14Cowboys13
Touchdown16 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Cowboys 11
Punt9 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Panthers 49
Punt9 plays, from the Panthers 9 to the Panthers 25
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 32 to the Panthers 48
The period ended4 plays
3rd quarter45 plays
No good7 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Cowboys 36
Panthers14Cowboys19
Panthers14Cowboys20
Touchdown5 plays, from the Cowboys 44 to the Panthers 35
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 28
Panthers14Cowboys26
Touchdown5 plays, from the Cowboys 34 to the Panthers 6
Intercepted10 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 47
Panthers14Cowboys32
Panthers14Cowboys33
Touchdown4 plays, from the Panthers 37 to the Panthers 23
Intercepted4 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 32
The period ended5 plays, from the Panthers 29 to the Panthers 20
4th quarter42 plays
Panthers14Cowboys36
Field goal1 play
Panthers20Cowboys36
Panthers21Cowboys36
Touchdown14 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Cowboys 6
Punt7 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 42
Panthers27Cowboys36
Panthers28Cowboys36
Touchdown10 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Cowboys 8
The period ended10 plays, from the Cowboys 19 to the Panthers 36
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
