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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:48 AM ET · 16 to play
2021 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 3, 2021 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
BrownsCleveland14
BY 7final margin
VikingsMinnesota7
Cleveland Browns 14 at Minnesota Vikings 7. Final.
Browns -1 ✓U 52 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 4
Cleveland Browns 14, Vikings 7 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 0:35, 3rd and 20, on Kareem Hunt — 14.3 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:35 · 3rd and 20
Kareem Hunt
Browns
(:35) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt right tackle pushed ob at MIN 41 for 33 yards (23-X.Woods; 22-H.Smith).
Dome
Browns closed -1 and covered, winning by 7.
Cleveland Browns 14–7. Biggest swing: Q2 0:35, Browns +14.3% win probability on one snap.
14.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Baker MayfieldBrownsQ2 1:33(1:33) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to 85-D.Njoku. PENALTY on MIN-54-E.Kendricks, Defensive Holding, 1 yard, enforced at MIN 2 - No Play.
11.2pts
Baker MayfieldVikingsQ2 0:45(:45) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on CLE-6-B.Mayfield, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 36.
11.8pts
What separated them
Red zone
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Browns at 1 touchdown on 2 trips.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Browns won this one — +0.03 expected points per carry, against Vikings at -0.25 expected points per carry.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Browns won this one — 39% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Vikings at 31% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Browns won this one — -0.07 expected points per snap, against Vikings at -0.26 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Browns173 of 187 plays carry both curves
(:35) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt right tackle pushed ob at MIN 41 for 33 yards (23-X.Woods; 22-H.Smith).
Swing −14.3 for VikingsExpected points −1.56 for VikingsModel and market agree here.play 86
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:35MIN +14% win prob(:35) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt right tackle pushed ob at MIN 41 for 33 yards (23-X.Woods; 22-H.Smith).
2nd · 0:45CLE +12% win prob(:45) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on CLE-6-B.Mayfield, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 36.
2nd · 1:33MIN +11% win prob(1:33) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to 85-D.Njoku. PENALTY on MIN-54-E.Kendricks, Defensive Holding, 1 yard, enforced at MIN 2 - No Play.
1st · 7:31MIN +11% win prob(7:31) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 14:54CLE +9% win prob(14:54) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at MIN 17 for -11 yards (97-E.Griffen).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Kareem Hunt's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 1:19 left in the 2nd put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
2nd1:19Kareem Hunt·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point goodLead never changed again+88–7
2nd0:06Chase McLaughlin·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Hughlett+311–7
4th6:21Chase McLaughlin·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Hughlett+314–7
4 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Brownscategory by categoryVikings
Browns6–2Vikings
329Total yards256
4.4Yards per play4.1
39%Success rate31%
39%Third-down rate31%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
6Explosive plays7
20First downs14
3Sacks taken2
0Turnovers1
The read
Browns ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.07Browns: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.26Vikings: −0.26 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.17Browns: −0.17 expected points added per play
−0.27Vikings: −0.27 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.03Browns: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.25Vikings: −0.25 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 75 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Vikings’s 62 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Browns 2, Vikings 1.
NoteBrowns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.26.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
MIN's sack or hit rate turned over: 18.9% in week 3 against 7.9% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 12 pts
inside their normal wobble · +7.0 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.79× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Vikings7.9%
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.3 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−1.30× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -8.6 pts, 6.0 points below their season mean of -2.6 pts and 1.3 times their own 4.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
77Wyatt TellerG · Every snap100%78 snaps
75Joel BitonioG · Every snap100%78 snaps
78Jack ConklinT · Every snap100%78 snaps
6Baker MayfieldQB · Every snap100%78 snaps
64J.C. TretterC · Every snap100%78 snaps
13Odell BeckhamWR · Heavy rotation79%62 snaps
71Jedrick WillsT · Heavy rotation73%57 snaps
81Austin HooperTE · Heavy rotation72%56 snaps
85David NjokuTE · Heavy rotation67%52 snaps
11Donovan Peoples-JonesWR · Heavy rotation59%46 snaps
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Cousins pass+13% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(15:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 12-D.Westbrook to MIN 43 for 17 yards (52-E.Lee, 22-G.Delpit).
Q4 15:00 · Vikings · 3rd & 13 at MIN 26 · gained 17 · +2.76 EP · +12.6% win probability
171 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 187 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 187 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
4 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 75 yards from the MIN 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
187 of 187 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
187
EPA per play
-0.13
Success rate
32%
Yards
584
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31-0.3277%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.0370%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.2833%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR16-0.0425%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12-0.5250%
Vikings0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR6+0.16100%
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.4667%
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.310%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.5260%
Browns2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR4——
Vikings2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Browns2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
187 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
187 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter32 plays
Browns0Vikings6
Browns0Vikings7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Browns 8
The period ended15 plays, from the Browns 26 to the Vikings 8
2nd quarter62 plays
Turnover on downs2 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 18 to the Vikings 19
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 31 to the Browns 37
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Browns 35
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs and three tight endsDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsIn the boxNine defenders
Browns6Vikings7
Browns8Vikings7
Touchdown26 plays, from the Browns 36 to the Vikings 1
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 27
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxFour defenders
Browns11Vikings7
Field goal9 plays, from the Browns 36 to the Vikings 30
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 33
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Vikings 37
Punt8 plays, from the Browns 23 to midfield
Punt6 plays, from the Vikings 14 to the Vikings 29
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 35 to the Vikings 42
The period ended4 plays, from the Vikings 9 to the Vikings 30
4th quarter59 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 26 to the Browns 37
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 16 to the Browns 18
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 18 to the Vikings 24
Browns14Vikings7
Field goal7 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Vikings 34
Intercepted2 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 21 to the Vikings 47
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.7 seconds
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Vikings 12 to the Browns 33
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 33 to the Browns 38
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.9 seconds
The period ended14 plays, from the Vikings 28 to the Browns 26
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
