2021 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 3, 2021 · U.S. Bank Stadium

Cleveland BrownsWinner

Minnesota Vikings

CLE -1 ✓U 52 ✓DomeBrowns closed -1 and covered, winning by 7.

Cleveland Browns 14–7. Biggest swing: Q2 0:35, MIN +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:35CLE — MIN CLE ball · 3rd & 20CLE 56%

(:35) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt right tackle pushed ob at MIN 41 for 33 yards (23-X.Woods; 22-H.Smith).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:35MIN +14% win prob(:35) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt right tackle pushed ob at MIN 41 for 33 yards (23-X.Woods; 22-H.Smith).
Q2 · 0:45CLE +12% win prob(:45) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on CLE-6-B.Mayfield, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 36.
Q2 · 1:33MIN +11% win prob(1:33) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to 85-D.Njoku. PENALTY on MIN-54-E.Kendricks, Defensive Holding, 1 yard, enforced at MIN 2 - No Play.
Q1 · 7:31MIN +11% win prob(7:31) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Browns	Vikings
Offensive plays	75	62
Total yards	329 (edge)	256
Yards per play	4.4 (edge)	4.1
Expected points added / play	-0.07 (edge)	-0.26
Success rate	39% (edge)	31%
Dropback rate	51%	66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.17 (edge)	-0.27
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.03 (edge)	-0.25
Third downs	7/18 (edge)	5/16
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	14
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Browns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.26.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

20/38, 203 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-9.8 expected points added · -11.3% completion over expected

Passing · CLE

Baker MayfieldQB

15/33, 155 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-6.1 expected points added · -18.2% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

21 att, 100 yds, 0 TD

-0.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CLE

Kareem HuntRB

14 att, 69 yds, 1 TD

0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

6/7 for 84 yds, 1 TD

19% of team targets · 9.2 expected points added

Receiving · CLE

Rashard HigginsWR

4/7 for 63 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 3.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIN	MIN 25	16	80	7:34	Touchdown
2	CLE	CLE 26	16	57	7:37	Turnover on downs
3	MIN	MIN 18	4	1	1:01	Punt
4	CLE	CLE 31	4	6	1:36	Punt
5	MIN	MIN 30	7	34	2:17	Turnover on downs
6	CLE	CLE 36	19	80	8:39	Touchdown
7	MIN	MIN 25	5	5	0:31	Punt
8	CLE	CLE 36	8	44	0:43	Turnover on downs
9	MIN	MIN 25	2	0	0:02	End of half
10	CLE	CLE 25	5	7	2:12	Punt
11	MIN	MIN 30	4	-2	2:07	Punt
12	CLE	CLE 23	7	37	3:59	Punt
13	MIN	MIN 14	4	0	2:00	Punt
14	CLE	CLE 35	6	23	3:30	Punt
15	MIN	MIN 9	9	51	4:01	Punt
16	CLE	CLE 16	4	2	1:04	Punt
17	MIN	MIN 18	4	4	1:22	Punt
18	CLE	CLE 30	7	36	3:29	Turnover on downs
19	MIN	MIN 25	2	0	0:08	Interception
20	CLE	CLE 21	6	32	2:23	Punt
21	MIN	MIN 12	8	55	2:24	Turnover on downs
22	CLE	CLE 33	4	5	0:20	Punt
23	MIN	MIN 28	9	28	1:01	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 80 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	15/33	155	0	0	3	-6.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Nick Chubb	21	100	4.8	0	-0.2
Kareem Hunt	14	69	4.9	1	0.4
Baker Mayfield	2	11	5.5	0	0.6
Odell Beckham	1	4	4.0	0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Rashard Higgins	4	7	63	23%	3.2
Odell Beckham	2	7	27	23%	-3.3
Kareem Hunt	2	4	17	13%	-0.1
David Njoku	2	2	17	6%	1.8
Demetric Felton	2	2	12	6%	0.7
Austin Hooper	1	5	11	16%	0.8
Nick Chubb	1	1	5	3%	0.2
Harrison Bryant	1	2	3	6%	-1.1
Anthony Schwartz	0	1	0	3%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah	5	2	0.0	0	0
Greedy Williams	4	2	0.0	1	1
Malcolm Smith	4	2	0.0	0	0
M.J. Stewart	4	0	0.0	0	0
Denzel Ward	2	2	0.5	0	1
Troy Hill	1	3	0.0	0	1
Myles Garrett	2	2	0.5	0	0
Malik McDowell	1	1	0.0	0	0
Sione Takitaki	2	0	0.0	0	0
A.J. Green	2	0	0.0	0	0

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	20/38	203	1	1	2	-9.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Dalvin Cook	9	34	3.8	-2.3
Alexander Mattison	10	20	2.0	-5.1
K.J. Osborn	1	10	10.0	0.5
C.J. Ham	1	1	1.0	1.6
Kirk Cousins	2	0	0.0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Justin Jefferson	6	7	84	1	19%	9.2
Adam Thielen	3	8	46	0	22%	-4.9
K.J. Osborn	3	7	26	0	19%	-1.6
Tyler Conklin	4	6	18	0	17%	-3.0
Dede Westbrook	1	1	17	0	3%	2.8
Dalvin Cook	2	6	10	0	17%	-2.7
Ameer Abdullah	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Xavier Woods	3	7	0.0	0
Blake Lynch	6	1	0.0	1
Eric Kendricks	3	4	0.0	0
Danielle Hunter	5	2	1.0	0
Armon Watts	2	4	0.0	0
Harrison Smith	3	3	0.0	0
Nick Vigil	1	3	0.0	0
Cameron Dantzler	3	1	0.0	1
Sheldon Richardson	2	1	0.0	2
Dalvin Tomlinson	1	1	1.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CLE -1
Closing total: 52
CLE moneyline: -105
MIN moneyline: -106

Browns closed -1 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 52; the game landed 21 — under by 31.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Tony Corrente
Rest: CLE 7 days · MIN 7 days
Coaches: Kevin Stefanski vs Mike Zimmer