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2021 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 3, 2021 · Soldier Field

Detroit Lions

14

Chicago BearsWinner

24

CHI -3 ✓U 42 ✓

Chicago Bears 24–14. Biggest swing: Q1 2:48, DET +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CHI ↑DET ↓
Q1 · 2:48DET — CHI DET ball · 1st & 8CHI 61%

(2:48) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff FUMBLES (Aborted) at CHI 8, RECOVERED by CHI-98-B.Nichols at CHI 10. 98-B.Nichols to CHI 11 for 1 yard (72-H.Vaitai). Penalty on DET-16-J.Goff, Illegal Motion, declined.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 2:48DET +13% win prob(2:48) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff FUMBLES (Aborted) at CHI 8, RECOVERED by CHI-98-B.Nichols at CHI 10. 98-B.Nichols to CHI 11 for 1 yard (72-H.Vaitai). Penalty on DET-16-J.Goff, Illegal Motion, declined.
  2. Q1 · 2:06CHI +10% win prob(2:06) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep middle to 11-D.Mooney to DET 26 for 64 yards (27-B.Price). DET-95-R.Okwara was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
  3. Q2 · 3:09DET +9% win prob(3:09) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at CHI 12 for -9 yards (94-R.Quinn). FUMBLES (94-R.Quinn), RECOVERED by CHI-52-K.Mack at CHI 20. 52-K.Mack to CHI 32 for 12 yards. Lateral to 4-E.Jackson to CHI 43 for 11 yards (14-A.St. Brown). The Replay Official reviewed the backward pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at CHI 12 for -9 yards (94-R.Quinn). FUMBLES (94-R.Quinn), touched at CHI 17, RECOVERED by CHI-52-K.Mack at CHI 20. 52-K.Mack to CHI 43 for 23 yards (14-A.St. Brown). PENALTY on CHI-52-K.Mack, Illegal Forward Pass, 5 yards, enforced at CHI 28.
  4. Q4 · 4:19DET +6% win prob(4:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 14-A.St. Brown [90-A.Blackson].

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricLionsBears
Offensive plays6755
Total yards351375 (edge)
Yards per play5.26.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.050.19 (edge)
Success rate48% (edge)45%
Dropback rate64%35%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.080.24 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.290.17 (edge)
Third downs4/11 (edge)1/8
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)711 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps19 (edge)18
Sacks taken41 (edge)
Turnovers21 (edge)

Bears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.05.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

24/38, 299 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

4.8 expected points added · +1.0% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

11/17, 209 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

3.2 expected points added · +9.2% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

David MontgomeryRB

23 att, 106 yds, 2 TD

4.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DET

Jamaal WilliamsRB

14 att, 66 yds, 0 TD

2.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

Darnell MooneyWR

5/7 for 125 yds, 0 TD

41% of team targets · 5.0 expected points added

Receiving · DET

Quintez CephusWR

4/5 for 83 yds, 0 TD

14% of team targets · 5.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CHICHI 2514756:11Touchdown
2DETDET 2712576:05Fumble
3CHICHI 117892:53Touchdown
4DETDET 2511605:16Turnover on downs
5CHICHI 5451:35Punt
6DETDET 4510235:01Fumble
7CHICHI 237281:58Interception
8DETDET 39460:27Punt
9CHICHI 4130:34End of half
10DETDET 21581:38Punt
11CHICHI 237772:49Touchdown
12DETDET 206252:19Punt
13CHICHI 9461:33Punt
14DETCHI 447443:22Touchdown
15CHICHI 258603:09Turnover on downs
16DETDET 2510753:53Touchdown
17CHICHI 317-33:46Punt
18DETDET 3412533:16Turnover on downs
19CHICHI 88354:15End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 89 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jared Goff24/382992044.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jamaal Williams14664.702.2
D'Andre Swift8162.00-3.9
Jared Goff382.70-6.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Quintez Cephus4583014%5.9
Amon-Ra St. Brown6870022%3.3
Kalif Raymond3646216%6.6
T.J. Hockenson4842022%-1.1
D'Andre Swift4633016%-0.3
KhaDarel Hodge111303%0.9
Trinity Benson231208%0.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Alex Anzalone430.000
Derrick Barnes410.000
Amani Oruwariye230.011
Will Harris320.000
Bobby Price320.000
Charles Harris311.000
Austin Bryant400.000
Michael Brockers210.000
Nicholas Williams120.000
Tracy Walker III210.000

Chicago Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Fields11/172090113.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
David Montgomery231064.624.5
Damien Williams8556.912.1
Darnell Mooney11010.001.1
Justin Fields393.00-0.2
Khalil Herbert372.30-1.3
Marquise Goodwin111.00-0.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Darnell Mooney57125041%5.0
Allen Robinson3363018%3.5
Damien Williams2215012%0.2
Cole Kmet136018%-1.1
Marquise Goodwin020012%-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Roquan Smith821.000
Deon Bush630.000
Alec Ogletree720.001
Angelo Blackson230.000
Duke Shelley500.001
Robert Quinn401.000
Trevis Gipson311.001
Bilal Nichols120.000
Caleb Johnson210.000
Eddie Jackson200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
CHI -3
Closing total
42
DET moneyline
+134
CHI moneyline
-148

Bears closed -3 and covered, winning by 10.

Total closed 42; the game landed 38 — under by 4.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Soldier Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
72°F, wind 4 mph
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
DET 7 days · CHI 7 days
Coaches
Dan Campbell vs Matt Nagy

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.