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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
Buffalo Bills 40, Texans 0 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 12:22, 1st and 10, on Lonnie Johnson — 18.0 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 12:22 · 1st and 10
Lonnie Johnson
Texans
(12:22) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 1-L.Johnson at BUF 45. 1-L.Johnson pushed ob at BUF 13 for 32 yards (17-J.Allen).
Bills closed -19 and covered, winning by 40.
Buffalo Bills 40–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:22, Texans +18.0% win probability on one snap.
18.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Davis MillsBillsQ1 10:10(10:10) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short right to 31-D.Johnson (55-J.Hughes). Pass tipped at line.
11.1pts
Tremaine EdmundsBillsQ1 7:09(7:09) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short middle intended for 3-A.Miller INTERCEPTED by 49-T.Edmunds at BUF 27. 49-T.Edmunds to BUF 31 for 4 yards (13-B.Cooks).
8.2pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Bills won this one — 60% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Texans at 21% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.12 expected points per snap, against Texans at -0.83 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.09 expected points per dropback, against Texans at -1.15 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bills won this one — 1 giveaway, against Texans at 5 giveaways.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 39 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Texans146 of 155 plays carry both curves
(12:22) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 1-L.Johnson at BUF 45. 1-L.Johnson pushed ob at BUF 13 for 32 yards (17-J.Allen).
Swing −18.0 for BillsExpected points −7.02 for BillsThe model had Texans 35 points higher than the market did.play 8
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 12:22HOU +18% win prob(12:22) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 1-L.Johnson at BUF 45. 1-L.Johnson pushed ob at BUF 13 for 32 yards (17-J.Allen).
1st · 10:10HOU +11% win prob(10:10) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short right to 31-D.Johnson (55-J.Hughes). Pass tipped at line.
1st · 7:09HOU +8% win prob(7:09) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short middle intended for 3-A.Miller INTERCEPTED by 49-T.Edmunds at BUF 27. 49-T.Edmunds to BUF 31 for 4 yards (13-B.Cooks).
1st · 8:47HOU +5% win prob(8:47) 3-M.Haack punts 44 yards to HOU 45, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-A.Roberts to BUF 49 for 6 yards (44-T.Matakevich, 9-A.Smith).
1st · 10:52HOU +3% win prob(10:52) (Shotgun) 31-D.Johnson up the middle to BUF 6 for no gain (55-J.Hughes).
1st · 12:33HOU +3% win prob(12:33) 11-C.Johnston punts 49 yards to BUF 34, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-32-G.Wallow.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Dawson Knox's 25-yard touchdown catch with 2:06 left in the 1st put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Bills ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±1.15 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.83Texans: −0.83 expected points added per play
+0.12Bills: +0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−1.15Texans: −1.15 expected points added per play
+0.09Bills: +0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.36Texans: −0.36 expected points added per play
+0.14Bills: +0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 42 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Bills’s 70 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Texans 1, Bills 8.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.83.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 23 pts
right on their number · −0.1 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.01× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Bills16.0%
right on their number · +0.5 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.07× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBUF's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -6.1 pts, 10.5 points below their season mean of 4.4 pts and 1.5 times their own 7.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 4 never used
71Tytus HowardT · Every snap100%47 snaps
68Justin BrittC · Every snap100%47 snaps
78Laremy TunsilT · Every snap100%47 snaps
61Marcus CannonT · Every snap100%47 snaps
74Max ScharpingG · Every snap100%47 snaps
10Davis MillsQB · Every snap100%47 snaps
18Chris ConleyWR · Full-time87%41 snaps
13Brandin CooksWR · Full-time87%41 snaps
3Anthony MillerWR · Heavy rotation74%35 snaps
85Pharaoh BrownTE · Heavy rotation72%34 snaps
31David JohnsonRB · Heavy rotation57%27 snaps
88Jordan AkinsTE · Rotational38%18 snaps
83Antony AuclairTE · Rotational34%16 snaps
2Mark IngramRB · Situational21%10 snaps
30Phillip LindsayRB · Situational17%8 snaps
28Rex BurkheadRB · Situational6%3 snaps
19Andre RobertsWR · Situational4%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Jimmy MorelandCBJordan JenkinsDEDeshaun WatsonQBScottie PhillipsRBBrevin JordanTEDanny AmendolaWR
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Allen pass−20% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(12:22) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 1-L.Johnson at BUF 45. 1-L.Johnson pushed ob at BUF 13 for 32 yards (17-J.Allen).
Q1 12:22 · Bills · 1st & 10 at BUF 34 · gained nothing · -7.02 EP · −20.4% win probability
145 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 155 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 155 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 84 yards from the BUF 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
155 of 155 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
155
EPA per play
-0.21
Success rate
43%
Yards
559
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.0556%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR25-0.9676%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR14+0.3414%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.3927%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.4744%
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.5720%
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR5+1.0260%
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Texans2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
155 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
155 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt6 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Intercepted1 play
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Bills 13 to the Bills 6
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 6 to the Bills 11
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Bills 49 to the Bills 37
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Texans0Bills6
Texans0Bills7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bills 31 to the Texans 25
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 19 to the Texans 22
2nd quarter45 plays
Texans0Bills10
Field goal5 plays, from midfield to the Texans 15
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 11 to the Texans 13
Texans0Bills13
Field goal7 plays, from the Texans 49 to the Texans 3
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 23 to the Texans 25
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Bills 21 to the Texans 38
Intercepted2 plays
Texans0Bills16
Field goal11 plays, from the Texans 43 to the Texans 2
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter32 plays
Texans0Bills19
Field goal13 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Texans 9
Punt9 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 37
The period ended10 plays, from the Bills 16 to the Texans 16
4th quarter40 plays
Texans0Bills25
Texans0Bills26
Touchdown4 plays, from the Texans 8 to the Texans 1
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Texans 15 to the Texans 23
Texans0Bills32
Texans0Bills33
Touchdown6 plays, from the Texans 27 to the Texans 4
Intercepted7 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Bills 44
Texans0Bills39
Texans0Bills40
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bills 47 to the Texans 4
Intercepted9 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Bills 48
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
