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polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:05 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 3, 2021 · New Era Field
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 4
It turned at Q1 12:22, 1st and 10, on Lonnie Johnson — 18.0 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Buffalo Bills 40–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:22, Texans +18.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 12:22 · 1st and 10
Lonnie Johnson
Texans
(12:22) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 1-L.Johnson at BUF 45. 1-L.Johnson pushed ob at BUF 13 for 32 yards (17-J.Allen).
18.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Bills won this one — 60% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Texans at 21% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.12 expected points per snap, against Texans at -0.83 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.09 expected points per dropback, against Texans at -1.15 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bills won this one — 1 giveaway, against Texans at 5 giveaways.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 39 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
(12:22) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 1-L.Johnson at BUF 45. 1-L.Johnson pushed ob at BUF 13 for 32 yards (17-J.Allen).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Dawson Knox's 25-yard touchdown catch with 2:06 left in the 1st put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Texanscategory by categoryBills
Bills ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±1.15 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 42 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Bills’s 70 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Texans 1, Bills 8.
Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.83.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 23 pts
Over Expected room →Texans-8.3 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.5 vs their -3.8 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.73× that swing) · 42 snaps
Bills-6.1 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −10.5 vs their 4.4 pts, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−1.47× that swing) · 70 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 91%
Tendencies room →Texans54.8%right on their number · +1.2 vs their 53.6%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (+0.11× that swing) · 31 early downs
Bills44.6%leaned — ran early · −15.5 vs their 60.2%, and they swing ±11.9 week to week (−1.31× that swing) · 56 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 85%
Fourth Down room →Texans—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 32.4%.
Bills50.0%inside their normal wobble · +12.5 vs their 37.5%, and they swing ±18.7 week to week (+0.66× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 34%
Tendencies room →Texans11.8%right on their number · −0.1 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.01× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Bills16.0%right on their number · +0.5 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.07× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
BUF's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -6.1 pts, 10.5 points below their season mean of 4.4 pts and 1.5 times their own 7.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 4 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 4
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
Who moved the needle
Passing · BUF
20/30, 248 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
2.0 expected points added · +5.0% completion over expected
Passing · HOU
11/21, 87 yds, 0 TD, 4 INT
-22.9 expected points added · -15.9% completion over expected
Receiving · BUF
5/6 for 74 yds, 0 TD
19% of team targets · 4.8 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Mitchell Trubisky banked 3.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dawson KnoxTE · Alpha Receiver | 20.7 | +2.2 | 81% | 82% | 26% | 15% | 5/8, 37 yd, 2 TD |
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 20.0 | −8.3 | 88% | — | 0% | — | 20/30, 248 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 6 car, 41 yd |
| Stefon DiggsWR · Alpha Receiver | 18.4 | −2.4 | 74% | 79% | 35% | 51% | 7/11, 114 yd |
| Emmanuel SandersWR · Featured Receiver | 13.1 | +0.1 | 71% | 79% | 19% | 29% | 1 car, 7 yd · 5/6, 74 yd |
| Zack MossRB · Committee Back | 12.1 | −5.2 | 56% | 53% | 3% | 1% | 14 car, 61 yd, 1 TD · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Brandin CooksWR · Alpha Receiver | 9.7 | −1.6 | 87% | 92% | 35% | 51% | 5/7, 47 yd |
| Devin SingletaryRB · Committee Back | 9.6 | +0.6 | 44% | 41% | 3% | 0% | 14 car, 79 yd · 1/1, 7 yd |
| David JohnsonRB · Committee Back | 7.8 | −2.2 | 57% | 72% | 20% | 3% | 5 car, 21 yd · 3/4, 27 yd |
| Mitchell TrubiskyQB | 7.3 | +3.3 | 13% | — | 0% | — | 1/1, 8 yd · 4 car, 10 yd, 1 TD |
| Cole BeasleyWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | +0.6 | 50% | 62% | 6% | 1% | 2/2, 16 yd |
| Mark IngramRB | 2.4 | −0.5 | 21% | 8% | 0% | — | 6 car, 24 yd |
| Reggie GilliamRB | 1.9 | −0.2 | 25% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1 car, 1 yd · 1/1, 8 yd |
| Pharaoh BrownTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −1.4 | 72% | 64% | 10% | 5% | 1/2, 6 yd |
| Anthony MillerWR · Alpha Receiver | 1.3 | −6.7 | 74% | 84% | 25% | 26% | 1/5, 3 yd |
| Gabe DavisWR | 0.0 | −3.6 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Isaiah McKenzieWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jake KumerowWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 17% | 12% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Chris ConleyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.1 | 87% | 92% | 5% | 11% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Andre RobertsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Phillip LindsayRB | -0.1 | −1.9 | 17% | 12% | 0% | — | 4 car, -1 yd |
| Rex BurkheadRB | -0.1 | −0.5 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jordan AkinsTE · Rotational Receiver | -0.3 | −2.0 | 38% | 32% | 5% | 3% | 1 car, 3 yd · 1/1, 4 yd |
| Davis MillsQB · Starter QB | -4.3 | −12.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 11/21, 87 yd, 4 INT · 1 car, 2 yd |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(12:22) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 1-L.Johnson at BUF 45. 1-L.Johnson pushed ob at BUF 13 for 32 yards (17-J.Allen).
Q1 12:22 · Bills · 1st & 10 at BUF 34 · gained nothing · -7.02 EP · −20.4% win probability
145 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 155 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 155 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 84 yards from the BUF 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
155 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
155 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Texans0
Bills6Texans0Bills7Texans0Bills10Texans0Bills13Texans0Bills16Texans0Bills19Texans0Bills25Texans0Bills26Texans0Bills32Texans0Bills33Texans0Bills39Texans0Bills40Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Texans at Bills, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 11/21 | 87 | 0 | 4 | 3 | −22.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 | −1.0 |
| David Johnson | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 | −2.2 |
| Jordan Akins |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 5 | 7 | 47 | 0 | 35% | +0.9 |
| David Johnson | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 20% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond King | 8 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamu Grugier-Hill | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lonnie Johnson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 20/30 | 248 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2.0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 1/1 | 8 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_04_HOU_BUF
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -19 and covered, winning by 40.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 40 — under by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 3.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.5 |
| Davis Mills | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 | −2.7 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| −2.0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 10% | −4.8 |
| Jordan Akins | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5% | −5.2 |
| Anthony Miller | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 25% | −10.5 |
| Chris Conley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.8 |
| 4 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Terrance Mitchell | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Justin Reid | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Kirksey | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tavierre Thomas | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeMarcus Walker | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tremon Smith | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Whitney Mercilus | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| +0.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 14 | 79 | 5.6 | 0 | +2.1 |
| Zack Moss | 14 | 61 | 4.4 | 1 | −0.4 |
| Josh Allen | 6 | 41 | 6.8 | 0 | +2.7 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 1 | −0.5 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Reggie Gilliam | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 7 | 11 | 114 | 0 | 35% | −3.1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 5 | 6 | 74 | 0 | 19% | +4.8 |
| Dawson Knox | 5 | 8 | 37 | 2 | 26% | +1.6 |
| Cole Beasley | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 6% | +1.3 |
| Reggie Gilliam | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.5 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | +0.9 |
| Zack Moss | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.9 |
| Gabe Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Lewis | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tremaine Edmunds | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Ed Oliver | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Matakevich | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Siran Neal | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Smith | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Levi Wallace | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jaquan Johnson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Carlos Basham | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gregory Rousseau | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
