2021 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 3, 2021 · New Era Field

Houston Texans

Buffalo BillsWinner

BUF -19 ✓U 47.5 ✓Bills closed -19 and covered, winning by 40.

Buffalo Bills 40–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:22, HOU +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 12:22HOU — BUF BUF ball · 1st & 10BUF 98%

(12:22) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 1-L.Johnson at BUF 45. 1-L.Johnson pushed ob at BUF 13 for 32 yards (17-J.Allen).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 12:22HOU +18% win prob(12:22) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 1-L.Johnson at BUF 45. 1-L.Johnson pushed ob at BUF 13 for 32 yards (17-J.Allen).
Q1 · 10:10HOU +11% win prob(10:10) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short right to 31-D.Johnson (55-J.Hughes). Pass tipped at line.
Q1 · 7:09HOU +8% win prob(7:09) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short middle intended for 3-A.Miller INTERCEPTED by 49-T.Edmunds at BUF 27. 49-T.Edmunds to BUF 31 for 4 yards (13-B.Cooks).
Q1 · 8:47HOU +5% win prob(8:47) 3-M.Haack punts 44 yards to HOU 45, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-A.Roberts to BUF 49 for 6 yards (44-T.Matakevich, 9-A.Smith).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Texans	Bills
Offensive plays	42	70
Total yards	109	452 (edge)
Yards per play	2.6	6.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.83	0.12 (edge)
Success rate	21%	60% (edge)
Dropback rate	60%	49%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-1.15	0.09 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.36	0.14 (edge)
Third downs	1/9	5/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	10 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	7	24 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	5	1 (edge)

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.83.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

20/30, 248 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

2.0 expected points added · +5.0% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

Davis MillsQB

11/21, 87 yds, 0 TD, 4 INT

-22.9 expected points added · -15.9% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

Devin SingletaryRB

14 att, 79 yds, 0 TD

2.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Zack MossRB

14 att, 61 yds, 1 TD

-0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Stefon DiggsWR

7/11 for 114 yds, 0 TD

35% of team targets · -3.1 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Emmanuel SandersWR

5/6 for 74 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 4.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	HOU	HOU 25	5	2	2:38	Punt
2	BUF	BUF 34	1	0	0:13	Interception
3	HOU	BUF 13	4	7	2:02	Turnover on downs
4	BUF	BUF 6	4	5	1:34	Punt
5	HOU	BUF 49	4	12	1:32	Interception
6	BUF	BUF 31	10	69	5:02	Touchdown
7	HOU	HOU 19	5	-3	1:59	Punt
8	BUF	50	5	35	1:55	Turnover on downs
9	HOU	HOU 11	5	-9	2:22	Punt
10	BUF	HOU 49	7	41	3:31	Turnover on downs
11	HOU	HOU 23	5	-5	1:44	Punt
12	BUF	BUF 21	7	41	3:33	Turnover on downs
13	HOU	HOU 40	1	0	0:15	Interception
14	BUF	HOU 43	8	33	1:17	Turnover on downs
15	HOU	HOU 25	2	4	0:23	End of half
16	BUF	BUF 25	13	68	6:15	Turnover on downs
17	HOU	HOU 25	8	21	3:27	Punt
18	BUF	BUF 16	12	80	6:49	Touchdown
19	HOU	HOU 15	3	12	0:30	Fumble
20	BUF	HOU 27	5	27	2:15	Touchdown
21	HOU	HOU 25	7	31	2:41	Interception
22	BUF	BUF 47	8	53	4:27	Touchdown
23	HOU	HOU 25	7	37	2:12	Interception
24	BUF	HOU 41	2	0	1:24	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 80 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Davis Mills	11/21	87	0	4	3	-22.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Mark Ingram	6	24	4.0	-1.0
David Johnson	5	21	4.2	-2.2
Jordan Akins	1	3	3.0	0.5
Davis Mills	1	2	2.0	-0.5
Phillip Lindsay	4	-1	-0.3	-2.7
Rex Burkhead	1	-1	-1.0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Brandin Cooks	5	7	47	35%	0.9
David Johnson	3	4	27	20%	-2.0
Pharaoh Brown	1	2	6	10%	-4.8
Jordan Akins	1	1	4	5%	-5.2
Anthony Miller	1	5	3	25%	-10.5
Chris Conley	0	1	0	5%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Desmond King	8	1	0.0	0	0
Kamu Grugier-Hill	4	3	0.0	0	0
Lonnie Johnson	4	3	0.0	1	1
Terrance Mitchell	3	3	0.0	0	2
Justin Reid	5	1	0.0	0	0
Christian Kirksey	2	3	0.0	0	1
Tavierre Thomas	1	4	0.0	0	0
DeMarcus Walker	2	0	0.0	0	0
Tremon Smith	2	0	0.0	0	0
Whitney Mercilus	1	1	1.0	0	0

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	20/30	248	2	1	1	2.0
Mitchell Trubisky	1/1	8	0	0	0	0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Devin Singletary	14	79	5.6	0	2.1
Zack Moss	14	61	4.4	1	-0.4
Josh Allen	6	41	6.8	0	2.7
Mitchell Trubisky	4	10	2.5	1	-0.5
Emmanuel Sanders	1	7	7.0	0	0.5
Reggie Gilliam	1	1	1.0	0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Stefon Diggs	7	11	114	0	35%	-3.1
Emmanuel Sanders	5	6	74	0	19%	4.8
Dawson Knox	5	8	37	2	26%	1.6
Cole Beasley	2	2	16	0	6%	1.3
Reggie Gilliam	1	1	8	0	3%	0.5
Devin Singletary	1	1	7	0	3%	0.9
Zack Moss	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.9
Gabe Davis	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Cameron Lewis	2	3	0.0	0	1
Tremaine Edmunds	2	2	0.0	1	1
Ed Oliver	3	1	0.0	0	0
Tyler Matakevich	3	0	0.0	1	1
Siran Neal	1	1	0.0	0	0
Andre Smith	1	1	0.0	0	0
Levi Wallace	2	0	0.0	0	1
Jaquan Johnson	2	0	0.0	1	1
Carlos Basham	1	1	1.0	0	0
Gregory Rousseau	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -19
Closing total: 47.5
HOU moneyline: +988
BUF moneyline: -1500

Bills closed -19 and covered, winning by 40.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 40 — under by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather: 67°F, wind 12 mph
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: HOU 10 days · BUF 7 days
Coaches: David Culley vs Sean McDermott