2021 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 3, 2021 · Hard Rock Stadium

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

Miami Dolphins

MIA -2.5 upsetO 41.5 ✓16 mph windDolphins closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Indianapolis Colts 27–17. Biggest swing: Q1 11:21, MIA +15% win probability on one snap. Played in 16 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 11:21IND — MIA MIA ball · 4th & 14IND 51%

(11:21) 5-M.Palardy punts 43 yards to IND 25, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 21-N.Hines MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by MIA-44-B.Ferguson at IND 27.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 11:21MIA +15% win prob(11:21) 5-M.Palardy punts 43 yards to IND 25, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 21-N.Hines MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by MIA-44-B.Ferguson at IND 27.
Q2 · 2:54MIA +11% win prob(2:54) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left tackle for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 3:49MIA +10% win prob(3:49) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass deep left to 81-M.Alie-Cox to MIA 23 for 28 yards (30-J.McCourty; 52-E.Roberts).
Q2 · 1:25MIA +9% win prob(1:25) 63-D.Pinter reported in as eligible. 2-C.Wentz left guard to IND 29 for 2 yards (94-C.Wilkins).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Colts	Dolphins
Offensive plays	64	49
Total yards	353 (edge)	203
Yards per play	5.5 (edge)	4.1
Expected points added / play	0.19 (edge)	-0.10
Success rate	42% (edge)	37%
Dropback rate	53%	71%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.29 (edge)	0.02
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.07 (edge)	-0.39
Third downs	6/14 (edge)	3/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	12
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.10.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Carson WentzQB

24/32, 228 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

9.9 expected points added · +13.5% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Jacoby BrissettQB

20/30, 199 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-0.6 expected points added · +1.1% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

16 att, 103 yds, 1 TD

3.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Malcolm BrownRB

8 att, 23 yds, 0 TD

-2.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

DeVante ParkerWR

4/9 for 77 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 6.2 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Michael PittmanWR

6/8 for 59 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 4.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIA	MIA 25	8	17	3:48	Punt
2	MIA	IND 27	4	2	1:18	Turnover on downs
3	IND	IND 26	7	4	3:56	Punt
4	MIA	MIA 13	13	50	7:48	Punt
5	IND	IND 1	6	16	4:23	Punt
6	MIA	50	4	4	0:46	Punt
7	IND	IND 20	11	75	5:14	Touchdown
8	MIA	MIA 25	5	4	1:04	Punt
9	IND	IND 18	8	16	1:24	Punt
10	MIA	MIA 29	1	-8	0:19	End of half
11	IND	IND 16	13	79	6:31	Touchdown
12	MIA	MIA 25	5	7	2:13	Punt
13	IND	IND 11	5	21	2:23	Punt
14	IND	MIA 18	4	17	2:59	Turnover on downs
15	MIA	MIA 25	5	-2	1:07	Fumble
16	IND	MIA 30	4	5	1:30	Turnover on downs
17	MIA	MIA 25	10	54	2:37	Touchdown
18	IND	IND 40	10	63	4:25	Touchdown
19	MIA	MIA 25	8	75	1:51	Touchdown
20	IND	IND 40	12	57	4:24	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 79 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Carson Wentz	24/32	228	2	0	2	9.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jonathan Taylor	16	103	6.4	1	3.3
Marlon Mack	10	22	2.2	0	-3.1
Carson Wentz	5	8	1.6	0	-3.6
Nyheim Miller-Hines	2	6	3.0	0	-0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Pittman	6	8	59	0	25%	4.7
Zach Pascal	4	5	44	0	16%	-0.3
Mo Alie-Cox	3	5	42	2	16%	6.7
Jack Doyle	1	1	24	0	3%	2.2
Parris Campbell	2	3	22	0	9%	2.2
Ashton Dulin	1	1	17	0	3%	1.8
Jonathan Taylor	3	3	11	0	9%	-0.6
Nyheim Miller-Hines	2	2	5	0	6%	-0.8
Kylen Granson	1	2	3	0	6%	-0.9
Marlon Mack	1	2	1	0	6%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Bobby Okereke	2	6	0.0	1
Shaquille Leonard	3	3	0.0	1
Isaiah Rodgers	4	0	0.0	0
Xavier Rhodes	4	0	0.0	0
Zaire Franklin	1	2	0.0	0
Grover Stewart	2	1	1.0	0
Kemoko Turay	2	1	2.0	0
Kenny Moore	1	2	0.0	0
Julian Blackmon	2	1	0.0	0
Andrew Sendejo	1	2	0.0	1

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jacoby Brissett	20/30	199	2	0	3	-0.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Malcolm Brown	8	23	2.9	-2.3
Jacoby Brissett	3	8	2.7	0.9
Myles Gaskin	2	3	1.5	-0.8
Salvon Ahmed	3	1	0.3	-1.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeVante Parker	4	9	77	1	30%	6.2
Mike Gesicki	5	6	57	1	20%	4.6
Jaylen Waddle	3	4	33	0	13%	2.7
Salvon Ahmed	2	2	12	0	7%	0.2
Albert Wilson	1	2	11	0	7%	-0.9
Durham Smythe	2	2	6	0	7%	-0.7
Will Fuller	1	2	6	0	7%	-0.4
Malcolm Brown	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.1
Adam Shaheen	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.7
Jakeem Grant	1	1	-7	0	3%	-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jason McCourty	2	6	0.0	0
John Jenkins	2	5	0.0	0
Eric Rowe	3	3	0.0	0
Elandon Roberts	5	1	0.0	0
Christian Wilkins	3	3	0.0	0
Nik Needham	5	1	0.0	1
Xavien Howard	4	1	0.0	1
Andrew Van Ginkel	4	1	0.0	1
Emmanuel Ogbah	2	2	1.0	0
Jerome Baker	2	2	0.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIA -2.5
Closing total: 41.5
IND moneyline: +130
MIA moneyline: -144

Dolphins closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 44 — over by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 85°F, wind 16 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: IND 7 days · MIA 7 days
Coaches: Frank Reich vs Brian Flores

Wind at 16 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.