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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 1:15 AM ET · 16 to play
2021 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 3, 2021 · Hard Rock Stadium
Final
ColtsIndianapolis27
BY 10final margin
DolphinsMiami17
Indianapolis Colts 27 at Miami Dolphins 17. Final.
Dolphins -2.5 upset
The verdict · 2021 Week 4
Indianapolis Colts 27, Dolphins 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 11:21, 4th and 14 — 15.1 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 11:21 · 4th and 14
Unnamed on the sheet
Dolphins
(11:21) 5-M.Palardy punts 43 yards to IND 25, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 21-N.Hines MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by MIA-44-B.Ferguson at IND 27.
O 41.5 ✓
Dolphins closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Indianapolis Colts 27–17. Biggest swing: Q1 11:21, Dolphins +15.1% win probability on one snap.
15.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Mo Alie-CoxColtsQ2 3:49(3:49) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass deep left to 81-M.Alie-Cox to MIA 23 for 28 yards (30-J.McCourty; 52-E.Roberts).
9.5pts
Jonathan TaylorColtsQ2 2:54(2:54) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left tackle for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10.8pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Colts won this one — +0.07 expected points per carry, against Dolphins at -0.39 expected points per carry.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Colts won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Dolphins at 4 chunk plays.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Colts won this one — +0.19 expected points per snap, against Dolphins at -0.10 expected points per snap.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Colts won this one — 6 of 14 on third down, against Dolphins at 3 of 11 on third down.
(11:21) 5-M.Palardy punts 43 yards to IND 25, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 21-N.Hines MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by MIA-44-B.Ferguson at IND 27.
Swing +15.1 for DolphinsExpected points +5.40 for DolphinsModel and market agree here.play 10
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 11:21MIA +15% win prob(11:21) 5-M.Palardy punts 43 yards to IND 25, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 21-N.Hines MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by MIA-44-B.Ferguson at IND 27.
2nd · 2:54MIA +11% win prob(2:54) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left tackle for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 3:49MIA +10% win prob(3:49) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass deep left to 81-M.Alie-Cox to MIA 23 for 28 yards (30-J.McCourty; 52-E.Roberts).
2nd · 1:25MIA +9% win prob(1:25) 63-D.Pinter reported in as eligible. 2-C.Wentz left guard to IND 29 for 2 yards (94-C.Wilkins).
2nd · 4:45MIA +8% win prob(4:45) 8-R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to MIA 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds. PENALTY on MIA-57-B.Scarlett, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at IND 40 - No Play.
3rd · 4:03MIA +8% win prob(4:03) 8-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to MIA 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 19-J.Grant MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by IND-16-A.Dulin at MIA 18.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jonathan Taylor's 23-yard rushing touchdown with 2:54 left in the 2nd put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:58Jason Sanders·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder M.Palardy · snap B.Ferguson+30–3
2nd2:54Jonathan Taylor·23-yd TD run23-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–3
Colts ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.19Colts: +0.19 expected points added per play
−0.10Dolphins: −0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.29Colts: +0.29 expected points added per play
+0.02Dolphins: +0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.07Colts: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.39Dolphins: −0.39 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 64 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 49 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Colts 5, Dolphins 3.
NoteColts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 22 pts
right on their number · −1.4 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.18× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Dolphins20.6%
right on their number · +1.9 vs their 18.7%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+0.25× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was IND's fourth-and-short go rate, 25.0% against a season mean of 51.7% — and IND swings 27.1 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
64Mark GlowinskiG · Every snap100%71 snaps
79Eric FisherT · Every snap100%71 snaps
62Chris ReedG · Every snap100%71 snaps
2Carson WentzQB · Every snap100%71 snaps
78Ryan KellyC · Full-time96%68 snaps
11Michael PittmanWR · Full-time86%61 snaps
14Zach PascalWR · Full-time82%58 snaps
81Mo Alie-CoxTE · Heavy rotation69%49 snaps
—Julién DavenportT · Heavy rotation58%41 snaps
28Jonathan TaylorRB · Heavy rotation51%36 snaps
1Parris CampbellWR · Rotational44%31 snaps
69Matt PryorT · Rotational42%30 snaps
83Kylen GransonTE · Rotational42%30 snaps
21Nyheim HinesRB · Rotational31%22 snaps
25Marlon MackRB · Rotational31%22 snaps
84Jack DoyleTE · Rotational30%21 snaps
16Ashton DulinWR · Situational17%12 snaps
63Danny PinterG · Situational14%10 snaps
17Mike StrachanWR · Situational7%5 snaps
20Jordan WilkinsRB · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Rock Ya-SinCBKwity PayeDEAntwaun WoodsDTJacob EasonQBKhari WillisSSBraden SmithT
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Palardy punts+17% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:21) 5-M.Palardy punts 43 yards to IND 25, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 21-N.Hines MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by MIA-44-B.Ferguson at IND 27.
Q1 11:21 · Dolphins · 4th & 14 at MIA 32 · gained nothing · +5.40 EP · +16.7% win probability
154 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 84 yards from the IND 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
+0.11
Success rate
40%
Yards
552
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.0283%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30-0.0877%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.5047%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.3043%
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.6311%
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.2140%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.2020%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Colts1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 42
Colts0Dolphins3
Field goal5 plays, from the Colts 27 to the Colts 20
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 26 to the Colts 39
The period ended11 plays, from the Dolphins 13 to the Colts 34
2nd quarter46 plays
Punt4 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 1 to the Colts 20
Punt4 plays, from midfield to the Colts 46
Colts6Dolphins3
Colts7Dolphins3
Touchdown12 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Dolphins 23
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 29
Punt12 plays, from the Colts 18 to the Colts 34
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Colts13Dolphins3
Colts14Dolphins3
Touchdown14 plays, from the Colts 16 to the Dolphins 1
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 32
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 11 to the Colts 32
Colts17Dolphins3
Field goal6 plays, from the Dolphins 18 to the Dolphins 12
The period ended5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 33
4th quarter54 plays
Fumble lost1 play
Colts20Dolphins3
Field goal4 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Dolphins 25
Colts20Dolphins9
Colts20Dolphins10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Colts 1
Colts26Dolphins10
Colts27Dolphins10
Touchdown13 plays, from the Colts 40 to the Dolphins 6
Colts27Dolphins16
Colts27Dolphins17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Colts 3
The period ended17 plays, from the Colts 40 to the Dolphins 3
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
