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polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:09 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 4 · Thu, Sep 30, 2021 · Paul Brown Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 4
It turned at Q4 9:08, 3rd and 3, on C.J. Uzomah — 20.5 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Cincinnati Bengals 24–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 9:08, Bengals +20.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 9:08 · 3rd and 3
C.J. Uzomah
Bengals
(9:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 87-C.Uzomah for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on JAX-26-S.Griffin, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
20.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Bengals at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Bengals won this one — +0.53 expected points per dropback, against Jaguars at +0.28 expected points per dropback.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bengals won this one — +0.33 expected points per snap, against Jaguars at +0.18 expected points per snap.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bengals won this one — 5 of 9 on third down, against Jaguars at 6 of 12 on third down.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 13.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
(9:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 87-C.Uzomah for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on JAX-26-S.Griffin, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Evan McPherson's 35-yard field goal with 0:04 left in the 4th put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Evan McPherson35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.HarrisLead never changed again+321–247 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Jaguarscategory by categoryBengals
Bengals ahead 3–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Jaguars, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 55 snaps at a 49% dropback rate against Bengals’s 55 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 4, Bengals 4.
Bengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.33 expected points added per play vs 0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
CIN's sack or hit rate, 3.7%, sat 10.1 points below their season number of 13.8% — they stayed blocked by 2.1 times their own 4.8-point weekly swing.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.8 points. · −2.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 21 pts
Over Expected room →Jaguars-5.3 ptsinside their normal wobble · −3.2 vs their -2.0 pts, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.54× that swing) · 55 snaps
Bengals-0.6 ptsright on their number · −0.2 vs their -0.4 pts, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 55 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 26% to 86%
Tendencies room →Jaguars43.9%leaned — ran early · −15.7 vs their 59.6%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−1.54× that swing) · 41 early downs
Bengals54.3%right on their number · +0.0 vs their 54.3%, and they swing ±11.0 week to week (+0.00× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -38% to 109%
Fourth Down room →Jaguars66.7%leaned — went for it · +31.2 vs their 35.5%, and they swing ±28.9 week to week (+1.08× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Bengals—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.5%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 36%
Tendencies room →Jaguars9.1%inside their normal wobble · −4.5 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.52× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Bengals3.7%off script — stayed blocked · −10.1 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−2.12× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
CIN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 3.7%, 10.1 points below their season mean of 13.8% and 2.1 times their own 4.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · CIN
25/32, 348 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
17.6 expected points added · +10.7% completion over expected
Passing · JAX
17/24, 204 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
6.4 expected points added · +11.0% completion over expected
Receiving · JAX
6/7 for 99 yds, 0 TD
32% of team targets · 8.6 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
C.J. Uzomah banked 17.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. UzomahTE · Featured Receiver | 26.5 | +17.6 | 83% | 79% | 19% | 15% | 5/6, 95 yd, 2 TD |
| Joe BurrowQB · Starter QB | 22.3 | +6.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 25/32, 348 yd, 2 TD · 3 car, 4 yd |
| Tyler BoydWR · Alpha Receiver | 20.8 | +4.5 | 62% | 85% | 34% | 34% | 9/11, 118 yd |
| James RobinsonRB · Bell Cow Back | 20.6 | +6.4 | 95% | 89% | 9% | 0% | 18 car, 78 yd, 2 TD · 1/2, -2 yd |
| Trevor LawrenceQB · Starter QB | 17.8 | −4.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/24, 204 yd · 8 car, 36 yd, 1 TD |
| Laviska Shenault Jr.WR · Alpha Receiver | 17.0 | +3.6 | 75% | 74% | 32% | 44% | 1 car, 11 yd · 6/7, 99 yd |
| Joe MixonRB · Bell Cow Back | 13.7 | −2.0 | 69% | 64% | 6% | 0% | 16 car, 67 yd, 1 TD · 1/2, 0 yd |
| Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.7 | −0.7 | 79% | 97% | 28% | 39% | 6/9, 77 yd |
| Marvin JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.4 | +0.7 | 93% | 89% | 14% | 9% | 3/3, 24 yd |
| Dan ArnoldTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.9 | +2.3 | 32% | 41% | 9% | 0% | 2/2, 29 yd |
| Jamal AgnewWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.8 | +2.3 | 14% | 19% | 5% | 13% | 1 car, 11 yd · 1/1, 27 yd |
| Trenton IrwinWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | +1.7 | 28% | 42% | 3% | 10% | 1/1, 25 yd |
| Samaje PerineRB | 3.2 | +0.3 | 28% | 30% | 3% | 1% | 3 car, 7 yd · 1/1, 15 yd |
| Auden TateWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | +1.0 | 34% | 21% | 3% | 4% | 1/1, 18 yd |
| Tavon AustinWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −2.9 | 73% | 74% | 14% | 11% | 1/3, 8 yd |
| Chris ManhertzTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.2 | 43% | 26% | 5% | 2% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Luke FarrellTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | 0.0 | 29% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Jacob HollisterTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.1 | 20% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Mike ThomasWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.0 | −0.3 | 31% | 30% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 0 yd |
| Dare OgunbowaleRB | 0.3 | −0.9 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tyron JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.8 | 16% | 19% | 5% | 14% | 0/1, 0 yd |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(9:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 87-C.Uzomah for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on JAX-26-S.Griffin, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
Q4 9:08 · Bengals · 3rd & 3 at JAX 31 · gained 31 · +3.93 EP · +26.3% win probability
140 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 155 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 155 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 86 yards from the CIN 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
155 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
155 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Jaguars6
Bengals0Jaguars7Bengals0Jaguars13Bengals0Jaguars14Bengals0Jaguars14Bengals6Jaguars14Bengals7Jaguars14Bengals13Jaguars14Bengals14Jaguars20Bengals14Jaguars21Bengals14Jaguars21Bengals20Jaguars21Bengals21Jaguars21Bengals24Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Jaguars at Bengals, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 17/24 | 204 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +6.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Robinson | 18 | 78 | 4.3 | 2 | +1.6 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 8 | 36 | 4.5 | 1 | +1.0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 6 | 7 | 99 | 0 | 32% | +8.6 |
| Dan Arnold | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Campbell | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rayshawn Jenkins | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Jack |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 25/32 | 348 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +17.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_04_JAX_CIN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bengals closed -7.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 46; the game landed 45 — under by 1.0.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 11 |
| 11.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.8 |
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | −0.6 |
| 9% |
| +2.0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 | 5% | +2.1 |
| Marvin Jones | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 14% | +1.4 |
| Tavon Austin | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 14% | −2.7 |
| Luke Farrell | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 5% | +0.4 |
| Chris Manhertz | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 5% | +0.4 |
| Jacob Hollister | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5% | +0.1 |
| Tyron Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.5 |
| James Robinson | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 9% | −2.1 |
| 2 |
| 5 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Andrew Wingard | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damien Wilson | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcom Brown | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre Herndon | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaquill Griffin | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Davon Hamilton | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adam Gotsis | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 16 | 67 | 4.2 | 1 | +1.5 |
| Samaje Perine | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Joe Burrow | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Boyd | 9 | 11 | 118 | 0 | 34% | +5.6 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 5 | 6 | 95 | 2 | 19% | +7.9 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 6 | 9 | 77 | 0 | 28% | +4.1 |
| Trenton Irwin | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 3% | +1.5 |
| Auden Tate | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 3% | +1.0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 3% | +0.7 |
| Joe Mixon | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −1.1 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Wilson | 4 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Germaine Pratt | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Hubbard | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vonn Bell | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trae Waynes | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eli Apple | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mike Hilton | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Wilson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Larry Ogunjobi | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Akeem Davis-Gaither | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
