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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 1:14 AM ET · 16 to play
2021 Week 4 · Thu, Sep 30, 2021 · Paul Brown Stadium
Final
JaguarsJacksonville21
BY 3final margin
BengalsCincinnati24
Jacksonville Jaguars 21 at Cincinnati Bengals 24. Final.
Bengals -7.5 no coverU 46 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 4
Cincinnati Bengals 24, Jaguars 21 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 9:08, 3rd and 3, on C.J. Uzomah — 20.5 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 9:08 · 3rd and 3
C.J. Uzomah
Bengals
(9:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 87-C.Uzomah for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on JAX-26-S.Griffin, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
Bengals closed -7.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Cincinnati Bengals 24–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 9:08, Bengals +20.5% win probability on one snap.
20.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
James RobinsonJaguarsQ4 14:30(14:30) 25-J.Robinson left guard to CIN 1 for 3 yards (24-V.Bell). Jacksonville challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 25-J.Robinson left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11.6pts
Evan McPhersonBengalsQ4 0:04(:04) 2-E.McPherson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
11.6pts
What separated them
Red zone
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Bengals at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Bengals won this one — +0.53 expected points per dropback, against Jaguars at +0.28 expected points per dropback.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bengals won this one — +0.33 expected points per snap, against Jaguars at +0.18 expected points per snap.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bengals won this one — 5 of 9 on third down, against Jaguars at 6 of 12 on third down.
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Jaguars142 of 155 plays carry both curves
(9:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 87-C.Uzomah for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on JAX-26-S.Griffin, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
Swing +20.5 for BengalsExpected points +3.93 for BengalsThe model had Jaguars 9 points higher than the market did.play 129
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 9:08CIN +20% win prob(9:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 87-C.Uzomah for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on JAX-26-S.Griffin, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
4th · 14:30CIN +12% win prob(14:30) 25-J.Robinson left guard to CIN 1 for 3 yards (24-V.Bell). Jacksonville challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 25-J.Robinson left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:04CIN +12% win prob(:04) 2-E.McPherson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
4th · 1:09CIN +11% win prob(1:09) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 87-C.Uzomah to JAX 21 for 25 yards (44-M.Jack) [91-D.Smoot].
1st · 5:25JAX +11% win prob(5:25) 2-E.McPherson 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
3rd · 14:50CIN +10% win prob(14:50) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 1-J.Chase to JAX 25 for 44 yards (42-A.Wingard).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Evan McPherson's 35-yard field goal with 0:04 left in the 4th put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th9:08C.J. Uzomah·31-yd TD catch31-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+721–21
4th0:04Evan McPherson·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.HarrisLead never changed again+321–24
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jaguarscategory by categoryBengals
Jaguars1–3Bengals
341Total yards420
6.2Yards per play7.6
55%Success rate55%
50%Third-down rate56%
3Red-zone touchdowns1
8Explosive plays8
20First downs20
1Sacks taken1
0Turnovers0
The read
Bengals ahead 3–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Jaguars, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.18Jaguars: +0.18 expected points added per play
+0.33Bengals: +0.33 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.28Jaguars: +0.28 expected points added per play
+0.53Bengals: +0.53 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.09Jaguars: +0.09 expected points added per play
+0.02Bengals: +0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 55 snaps at a 49% dropback rate against Bengals’s 55 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 4, Bengals 4.
NoteBengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.33 expected points added per play vs 0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CIN's sack or hit rate, 3.7%, sat 10.1 points below their season number of 13.8% — they stayed blocked by 2.1 times their own 4.8-point weekly swing.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.5 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.52× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Bengals3.7%
off script — stayed blocked · −10.1 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−2.12× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCIN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 3.7%, 10.1 points below their season mean of 13.8% and 2.1 times their own 4.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Burrow pass+26% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(9:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 87-C.Uzomah for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on JAX-26-S.Griffin, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
Q4 9:08 · Bengals · 3rd & 3 at JAX 31 · gained 31 · +3.93 EP · +26.3% win probability
140 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 155 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 155 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 86 yards from the CIN 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
155 of 155 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
155
EPA per play
+0.16
Success rate
48%
Yards
761
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.2151%
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.4678%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.3521%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR13-0.018%
Bengals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Jaguars1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
155 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
155 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 49
No good10 plays, from the Bengals 9 to the Jaguars 25
Jaguars6Bengals0
Jaguars7Bengals0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jaguars 33 to the Bengals 6
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 27
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter40 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 34 to the Jaguars 35
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 27 to the Bengals 48
Jaguars13Bengals0
Jaguars14Bengals0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Bengals 7
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 14 to the Bengals 22
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Jaguars 38 to the Bengals 1
The period ended5 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Jaguars14Bengals6
Jaguars14Bengals7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bengals 31 to the Jaguars 22
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 28
Jaguars14Bengals13
Jaguars14Bengals14
Touchdown14 plays, from the Bengals 14 to the Jaguars 1
The period ended12 plays, from the Jaguars 23 to the Bengals 6
4th quarter41 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Jaguars20Bengals14
Jaguars21Bengals14
Touchdown4 plays, from the Bengals 8 to the Bengals 4
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw6.2 seconds
Jaguars21Bengals20
Jaguars21Bengals21
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Jaguars 31
Punt9 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to midfield
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.5 seconds
Jaguars21Bengals24
Field goal15 plays, from the Bengals 10 to the Jaguars 17
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
