2021 Week 4 · Thu, Sep 30, 2021 · Paul Brown Stadium

Jacksonville Jaguars

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

CIN -7.5 no coverU 46 ✓Bengals closed -7.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Cincinnati Bengals 24–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 9:08, CIN +20% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 9:08JAX — CIN CIN ball · 3rd & 3JAX 65%

(9:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 87-C.Uzomah for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on JAX-26-S.Griffin, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 9:08CIN +20% win prob(9:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 87-C.Uzomah for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on JAX-26-S.Griffin, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
Q4 · 14:30CIN +12% win prob(14:30) 25-J.Robinson left guard to CIN 1 for 3 yards (24-V.Bell). Jacksonville challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 25-J.Robinson left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 0:04CIN +12% win prob(:04) 2-E.McPherson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
Q4 · 1:09CIN +11% win prob(1:09) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 87-C.Uzomah to JAX 21 for 25 yards (44-M.Jack) [91-D.Smoot].

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jaguars	Bengals
Offensive plays	55	55
Total yards	341	420 (edge)
Yards per play	6.2	7.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.18	0.33 (edge)
Success rate	55%	55%
Dropback rate	49%	60%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.28	0.53 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.09 (edge)	0.02
Third downs	6/12	5/9 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8	8
First downs gained on snaps	20	20
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	0	0

Bengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.33 expected points added per play vs 0.18.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

25/32, 348 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

17.6 expected points added · +10.7% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

17/24, 204 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

6.4 expected points added · +11.0% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

James RobinsonRB

18 att, 78 yds, 2 TD

1.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

16 att, 67 yds, 1 TD

1.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Tyler BoydWR

9/11 for 118 yds, 0 TD

34% of team targets · 5.6 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Laviska Shenault Jr.WR

6/7 for 99 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 8.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	JAX	JAX 25	9	24	4:11	Punt
2	CIN	CIN 9	9	76	5:28	Turnover on downs
3	JAX	JAX 33	9	67	3:53	Touchdown
4	CIN	CIN 25	5	2	0:59	Punt
5	JAX	JAX 27	4	8	1:19	Punt
6	CIN	CIN 27	5	17	2:15	Punt
7	JAX	JAX 20	13	80	7:10	Touchdown
8	CIN	CIN 14	5	8	2:22	Punt
9	JAX	JAX 38	5	61	1:30	Turnover on downs
10	CIN	CIN 1	2	4	0:53	End of half
11	CIN	CIN 31	6	69	1:48	Touchdown
12	JAX	JAX 25	5	3	1:33	Punt
13	CIN	CIN 14	13	86	6:29	Touchdown
14	JAX	JAX 23	13	73	5:43	Touchdown
15	CIN	CIN 25	12	75	5:28	Touchdown
16	JAX	JAX 25	8	25	3:26	Punt
17	CIN	CIN 10	10	83	5:33	Turnover on downs

0 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 86 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trevor Lawrence	17/24	204	0	0	1	6.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Robinson	18	78	4.3	2	1.6
Trevor Lawrence	8	36	4.5	1	1.0
Laviska Shenault Jr.	1	11	11.0	0	0.8
Jamal Agnew	1	11	11.0	0	0.8
Dare Ogunbowale	2	3	1.5	0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Laviska Shenault Jr.	6	7	99	32%	8.6
Dan Arnold	2	2	29	9%	2.0
Jamal Agnew	1	1	27	5%	2.1
Marvin Jones	3	3	24	14%	1.4
Tavon Austin	1	3	8	14%	-2.7
Luke Farrell	1	1	7	5%	0.4
Chris Manhertz	1	1	7	5%	0.4
Jacob Hollister	1	1	5	5%	0.1
Tyron Johnson	0	1	0	5%	-1.5
James Robinson	1	2	-2	9%	-2.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Tyson Campbell	4	5	0.0	0
Rayshawn Jenkins	4	4	0.0	0
Myles Jack	2	5	0.0	0
Andrew Wingard	5	2	0.0	0
Damien Wilson	3	3	0.0	0
Malcom Brown	1	3	0.0	0
Tre Herndon	4	0	0.0	0
Shaquill Griffin	3	0	0.0	1
Davon Hamilton	2	1	0.0	0
Adam Gotsis	2	1	1.0	0

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	25/32	348	2	0	1	17.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Joe Mixon	16	67	4.2	1	1.5
Samaje Perine	3	7	2.3	0	-0.9
Joe Burrow	3	4	1.3	0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Boyd	9	11	118	0	34%	5.6
C.J. Uzomah	5	6	95	2	19%	7.9
Ja'Marr Chase	6	9	77	0	28%	4.1
Trenton Irwin	1	1	25	0	3%	1.5
Auden Tate	1	1	18	0	3%	1.0
Samaje Perine	1	1	15	0	3%	0.7
Joe Mixon	1	2	0	0	6%	-1.1
Mike Thomas	1	1	0	0	3%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Logan Wilson	4	6	1.0	0
Germaine Pratt	5	4	0.0	0
Sam Hubbard	4	2	0.0	0
Vonn Bell	3	2	0.0	0
Trae Waynes	4	0	0.0	0
Eli Apple	3	0	0.0	1
Mike Hilton	2	1	0.0	0
Brandon Wilson	1	1	0.0	0
Larry Ogunjobi	1	1	0.0	0
Akeem Davis-Gaither	2	0	0.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CIN -7.5
Closing total: 46
JAX moneyline: +313
CIN moneyline: -373

Bengals closed -7.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 46; the game landed 45 — under by 1.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Paul Brown Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 65°F, wind 0 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: JAX 4 days · CIN 4 days
Coaches: Urban Meyer vs Zac Taylor