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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:37 AM ET · 16 to play
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 16.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 35 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Eagles.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Chiefs175 of 185 plays carry both curves
(9:29) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 10-T.Hill for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −9.4 for EaglesExpected points −2.90 for EaglesThe model had Eagles 22 points higher than the market did.play 55
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 9:29PHI +9% win prob(9:29) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 10-T.Hill for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 4:21KC +9% win prob(4:21) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders right end pushed ob at KC 7 for -4 yards (32-T.Mathieu).
2nd · 10:46PHI +7% win prob(10:46) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 10-T.Hill ran ob at PHI 10 for 32 yards.
4th · 12:46PHI +7% win prob(12:46) (Shotgun) 14-K.Gainwell up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 11:50PHI +7% win prob(11:50) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 13-B.Pringle to PHI 32 for 19 yards (23-R.McLeod) [50-E.Wilson].
3rd · 12:18KC +6% win prob(12:18) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 50-E.Wilson [94-J.Sweat] at PHI 44. 50-E.Wilson to KC 49 for 7 yards (52-C.Humphrey). Penalty on KC-57-O.Brown, Offensive Holding, declined.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tyreek Hill's 6-yard touchdown catch with 9:29 left in the 2nd put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:41Jake Elliott·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder A.Siposs · snap R.Lovato+30–3
1st8:06Clyde Edwards-Helaire·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+77–3
Chiefs ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Eagles, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.73 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.53Chiefs: +0.53 expected points added per play
+0.26Eagles: +0.26 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.73Chiefs: +0.73 expected points added per play
+0.25Eagles: +0.25 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.28Chiefs: +0.28 expected points added per play
+0.29Eagles: +0.29 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 62 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Eagles’s 70 at 79%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 6, Eagles 6.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.53 expected points added per play vs 0.26.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 26 pts
right on their number · +0.0 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 55 dropbacks
Eagles11.4%
right on their number · −1.1 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.15× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePHI's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 80.4%, 30.4 points above their season mean of 50.0% and 1.9 times their own 16.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
62Joe ThuneyG · Every snap100%67 snaps
67Lucas NiangT · Every snap100%67 snaps
57Orlando BrownT · Every snap100%67 snaps
52Creed HumphreyC · Every snap100%67 snaps
65Trey SmithG · Every snap100%67 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Every snap100%67 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Full-time88%59 snaps
10Tyreek HillWR · Full-time81%54 snaps
11Demarcus RobinsonWR · Heavy rotation67%45 snaps
17Mecole HardmanWR · Heavy rotation52%35 snaps
25Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB · Heavy rotation52%35 snaps
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Hurts pass+9% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(3:46) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 14-K.Gainwell to KC 8 for 12 yards (38-L.Sneed).
Q1 3:46 · Eagles · 4th & 2 at KC 20 · gained 12 · +2.77 EP · +9.3% win probability
173 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 185 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 185 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 84 yards from the PHI 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
185 of 185 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
185
EPA per play
+0.27
Success rate
52%
Yards
932
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.3773%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.7256%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19-0.1379%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.2850%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR12+0.3633%
Eagles2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Eagles0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
185 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
185 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Chiefs0Eagles3
Field goal10 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Chiefs 11
Chiefs6Eagles3
Chiefs7Eagles3
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chiefs 23 to the Eagles 1
Chiefs7Eagles9
Chiefs7Eagles10
Touchdown15 plays, from the Eagles 16 to the Chiefs 3
The period ended6 plays, from the Chiefs 17 to the Chiefs 31
2nd quarter47 plays
Chiefs13Eagles10
Chiefs14Eagles10
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chiefs 34 to the Eagles 6
Chiefs14Eagles13
Field goal16 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Chiefs 3
Chiefs20Eagles13
Chiefs21Eagles13
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Eagles 2
The period ended7 plays, from the Eagles 11 to the Chiefs 39
3rd quarter38 plays
Intercepted7 plays, from the Chiefs 30 to the Chiefs 46
Chiefs21Eagles16
Field goal14 plays, from the Chiefs 49 to the Chiefs 3
Chiefs27Eagles16
Chiefs28Eagles16
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Eagles 1
The period ended4 plays, from the Eagles 44 to the Eagles 48
4th quarter57 plays
Chiefs28Eagles22
Chiefs28Eagles23
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chiefs 38 to the Chiefs 7
Chiefs34Eagles23
Chiefs35Eagles23
Touchdown14 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Eagles 12
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Chiefs 34
Chiefs41Eagles23
Chiefs42Eagles23
Touchdown12 plays, from the Chiefs 35 to the Eagles 39
Chiefs42Eagles29
Chiefs42Eagles30
Touchdown12 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Chiefs 15
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -7.5
Closing total
53.5
Chiefs moneyline
-349
Eagles moneyline
+296
Chiefs closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 12.
Total closed 53.5; the game landed 72 — over by 18.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 79°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the south-west; mainly clear.
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
Chiefs 7 days · Eagles 6 days
Coaches
Andy Reid vs Nick Sirianni
1st · 8:15
PHI +5% win prob
(8:15) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 10-T.Hill for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 10-T.Hill pushed ob at PHI 1 for 36 yards (2-D.Slay).
1st · 2:02PHI +5% win prob(2:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
