2021 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 3, 2021 · Lincoln Financial Field

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

Philadelphia Eagles

KC -7.5 ✓O 53.5 ✓Chiefs closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 12.

Kansas City Chiefs 42–30. Biggest swing: Q2 9:29, PHI +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 9:29KC — PHI KC ball · 3rd & 6KC 75%

(9:29) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 10-T.Hill for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 9:29PHI +9% win prob(9:29) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 10-T.Hill for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 4:21KC +9% win prob(4:21) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders right end pushed ob at KC 7 for -4 yards (32-T.Mathieu).
Q2 · 10:46PHI +7% win prob(10:46) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 10-T.Hill ran ob at PHI 10 for 32 yards.
Q4 · 12:46PHI +7% win prob(12:46) (Shotgun) 14-K.Gainwell up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chiefs	Eagles
Offensive plays	62	70
Total yards	472 (edge)	461
Yards per play	7.6 (edge)	6.6
Expected points added / play	0.53 (edge)	0.26
Success rate	65% (edge)	51%
Dropback rate	56%	79%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.73 (edge)	0.25
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.28	0.29 (edge)
Third downs	9/10 (edge)	6/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	11 (edge)	9
First downs gained on snaps	28	28
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.53 expected points added per play vs 0.26.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PHI

Jalen HurtsQB

32/48, 387 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

13.8 expected points added · +8.7% completion over expected

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

24/30, 278 yds, 5 TD, 1 INT

22.7 expected points added · +17.0% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB

14 att, 102 yds, 0 TD

4.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PHI

Jalen HurtsQB

8 att, 47 yds, 0 TD

1.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Tyreek HillWR

11/12 for 186 yds, 3 TD

40% of team targets · 20.2 expected points added

Receiving · PHI

DeVonta SmithWR

7/10 for 122 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 6.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PHI	PHI 25	9	64	3:22	Turnover on downs
2	KC	KC 23	10	71	3:36	Touchdown
3	PHI	PHI 16	14	94	6:05	Touchdown
4	KC	KC 17	14	98	7:32	Touchdown
5	PHI	PHI 25	14	65	5:50	Turnover on downs
6	KC	KC 25	10	72	2:39	Touchdown
7	PHI	PHI 11	6	29	0:56	End of half
8	KC	KC 30	7	16	2:51	Interception
9	PHI	KC 49	10	53	5:02	Turnover on downs
10	KC	KC 25	13	75	6:16	Touchdown
11	PHI	PHI 44	9	41	3:09	Touchdown
12	KC	KC 25	13	70	5:58	Touchdown
13	PHI	PHI 25	9	40	2:18	Turnover on downs
14	KC	KC 35	7	70	1:56	Touchdown
15	PHI	PHI 25	12	75	2:26	Touchdown
16	KC	KC 25	2	0	0:04	End of game

0 of 16 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 98 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	24/30	278	5	1	1	22.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	14	102	7.3	0	4.4
Darrel Williams	10	42	4.2	1	1.5
Patrick Mahomes	5	26	5.2	0	2.7
Mecole Hardman	2	25	12.5	0	0.9
Michael Burton	1	5	5.0	0	0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyreek Hill	11	12	186	3	40%	20.2
Travis Kelce	4	6	23	0	20%	-3.1
Byron Pringle	2	2	23	0	7%	1.7
Darrel Williams	2	2	16	0	7%	2.3
Mecole Hardman	2	3	16	0	10%	1.6
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	2	3	12	1	10%	0.8
Joseph Fortson	1	1	2	1	3%	1.6
Noah Gray	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Mike Hughes	9	1	0.0	1
Daniel Sorensen	9	0	0.0	0
Tyrann Mathieu	4	1	0.0	1
Deandre Baker	4	0	0.0	0
L'Jarius Sneed	3	1	1.0	0
Michael Danna	3	1	2.0	0
Anthony Hitchens	4	0	0.0	0
Ben Niemann	2	1	0.0	0
Juan Thornhill	3	0	0.0	0
Tershawn Wharton	1	1	0.0	0

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jalen Hurts	32/48	387	2	0	3	13.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jalen Hurts	8	47	5.9	0	1.9
Kenneth Gainwell	3	31	10.3	1	4.4
Miles Sanders	7	13	1.9	0	-3.2
Jalen Reagor	1	12	12.0	0	0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeVonta Smith	7	10	122	0	23%	6.4
Zach Ertz	6	8	60	0	18%	1.3
Kenneth Gainwell	6	8	58	0	18%	5.5
Dallas Goedert	5	5	56	1	11%	4.6
Miles Sanders	3	3	34	0	7%	2.4
Quez Watkins	3	7	33	0	16%	-1.4
Greg Ward	1	2	15	1	5%	3.6
Jalen Reagor	1	1	9	0	2%	0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Eric Wilson	6	5	0.0	1	1
Alex Singleton	6	3	0.0	0	0
Avonte Maddox	5	2	0.0	0	0
Javon Hargrave	3	3	1.0	0	0
Darius Slay	4	1	0.0	0	0
Rodney McLeod	4	0	0.0	0	0
Derek Barnett	1	3	0.0	0	0
T.J. Edwards	1	2	0.0	0	0
Davion Taylor	1	2	0.0	0	0
Anthony Harris	1	2	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -7.5
Closing total: 53.5
KC moneyline: -349
PHI moneyline: +296

Chiefs closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 12.

Total closed 53.5; the game landed 72 — over by 18.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 73°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: KC 7 days · PHI 6 days
Coaches: Andy Reid vs Nick Sirianni