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Las Vegas Raiders 14 at Los Angeles Chargers 28. Final.
Chargers -3 ✓U 52 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 4
Los Angeles Chargers 28, Raiders 14 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 13:26, 1st and 10, on Henry Ruggs — 7.9 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 13:26 · 1st and 10
Henry Ruggs
Raiders
(13:26) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 11-H.Ruggs to LAC 35 for 51 yards (33-D.James).
Dome
Chargers closed -3 and covered, winning by 14.
Los Angeles Chargers 28–14. Biggest swing: Q4 13:26, Raiders +7.9% win probability on one snap.
7.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Derek CarrChargersQ4 11:23(11:23) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LAC 34 for -6 yards (95-C.Covington).
7.0pts
Jared CookChargersQ4 9:24(9:24) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 87-J.Cook to LV 37 for 13 yards (52-D.Perryman).
6.8pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Chargers won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Raiders at 3 chunk plays.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Chargers won this one — +0.03 expected points per carry, against Raiders at -0.29 expected points per carry.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chargers won this one — +0.05 expected points per snap, against Raiders at -0.23 expected points per snap.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Chargers won this one — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Raiders at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 5 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Raiders168 of 178 plays carry both curves
(13:26) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 11-H.Ruggs to LAC 35 for 51 yards (33-D.James).
Swing −7.9 for ChargersExpected points −3.26 for ChargersModel and market agree here.play 139
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 13:26LAC +8% win prob(13:26) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 11-H.Ruggs to LAC 35 for 51 yards (33-D.James).
4th · 11:23LV +7% win prob(11:23) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LAC 34 for -6 yards (95-C.Covington).
4th · 9:24LAC +7% win prob(9:24) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 87-J.Cook to LV 37 for 13 yards (52-D.Perryman).
1st · 11:42LAC +7% win prob(11:42) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to LV 20 for 18 yards (25-T.Moehrig).
1st · 8:06LAC +7% win prob(8:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 89-D.Parham for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 10:42LV +6% win prob(10:42) 2-D.Carlson 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
3rd · 1:51LAC +6% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Donald Parham's 4-yard touchdown catch with 8:06 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Chargers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.23Raiders: −0.23 expected points added per play
+0.05Chargers: +0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.21Raiders: −0.21 expected points added per play
+0.06Chargers: +0.06 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.29Raiders: −0.29 expected points added per play
+0.03Chargers: +0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 56 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Chargers’s 73 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 2, Chargers 5.
NoteChargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.23.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 20 pts
right on their number · −0.1 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Chargers17.5%
inside their normal wobble · +3.6 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.55× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLAC's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 49.1%, 12.3 points below their season mean of 61.5% and 1.2 times their own 10.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Herbert pass+7% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(12:53) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 87-J.Cook to LV 37 for 22 yards (25-T.Moehrig).
Q1 12:53 · Chargers · 2nd & 6 at LAC 41 · gained 22 · +1.65 EP · +7.3% win probability
166 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 180 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 81 yards from the LV 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
-0.11
Success rate
38%
Yards
593
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.2071%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.3779%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.2050%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.2470%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.1413%
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.0520%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.1440%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Chargers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Chargers1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Raiders0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Raiders0Chargers6
Raiders0Chargers7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Raiders 4
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 33
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 24 to the Chargers 29
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 23 to the Raiders 27
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 40 to the Raiders 39
The period ended5 plays
2nd quarter50 plays
Punt1 play
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 10 to the Chargers 18
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Chargers 44 to the Chargers 36
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 37 to the Chargers 44
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 15 to the Raiders 33
Raiders0Chargers13
Raiders0Chargers14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Raiders 10
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 8 to the Raiders 17
Raiders0Chargers20
Raiders0Chargers21
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chargers 31 to the Raiders 14
The period ended5 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Raiders6Chargers21
Raiders7Chargers21
Touchdown14 plays, from the Raiders 22 to the Chargers 10
Punt11 plays, from the Chargers 27 to the Raiders 49
Raiders13Chargers21
Raiders14Chargers21
Touchdown8 plays, from the Raiders 19 to the Chargers 3
The period ended7 plays, from the Chargers 15 to the Chargers 41
4th quarter46 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 46 to the Raiders 48
No good6 plays, from the Raiders 14 to the Chargers 28
Raiders14Chargers27
Raiders14Chargers28
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chargers 42 to the Raiders 11
Intercepted8 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Chargers 47
Punt8 plays, from the Chargers 44 to the Raiders 29
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Raiders 10 to the Raiders 13
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
