2021 Week 4 · Mon, Oct 4, 2021 · SoFi Stadium

Las Vegas Raiders

Los Angeles ChargersWinner

LAC -3 ✓U 52 ✓DomeChargers closed -3 and covered, winning by 14.

Los Angeles Chargers 28–14. Biggest swing: Q4 13:26, LAC +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 13:26LV — LAC LV ball · 1st & 10LAC 84%

(13:26) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 11-H.Ruggs to LAC 35 for 51 yards (33-D.James).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 13:26LAC +8% win prob(13:26) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 11-H.Ruggs to LAC 35 for 51 yards (33-D.James).
Q4 · 11:23LV +7% win prob(11:23) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LAC 34 for -6 yards (95-C.Covington).
Q4 · 9:24LAC +7% win prob(9:24) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 87-J.Cook to LV 37 for 13 yards (52-D.Perryman).
Q1 · 11:42LAC +7% win prob(11:42) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to LV 20 for 18 yards (25-T.Moehrig).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Raiders	Chargers
Offensive plays	56	73
Total yards	213	382 (edge)
Yards per play	3.8	5.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.23	0.05 (edge)
Success rate	36%	45% (edge)
Dropback rate	71%	58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.21	0.06 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.29	0.03 (edge)
Third downs	4/13	4/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	10	24 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	2 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.23.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

25/38, 222 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

5.1 expected points added · +0.1% completion over expected

Passing · LV

Derek CarrQB

21/34, 196 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-7.6 expected points added · -2.4% completion over expected

Rushing · LAC

Austin EkelerRB

15 att, 117 yds, 1 TD

7.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LV

Josh JacobsRB

13 att, 40 yds, 0 TD

-4.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Jared CookTE

6/7 for 70 yds, 1 TD

18% of team targets · 10.5 expected points added

Receiving · LV

Henry RuggsWR

3/6 for 60 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 0.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LAC	LAC 25	14	75	6:59	Touchdown
2	LV	LV 30	5	3	1:40	Punt
3	LAC	LAC 24	4	5	0:57	Punt
4	LV	LV 23	4	-8	1:18	Punt
5	LAC	LAC 40	5	19	2:07	Turnover on downs
6	LV	LV 41	4	5	2:09	Punt
7	LAC	LAC 10	4	8	1:24	Punt
8	LV	LAC 44	4	7	1:52	Turnover on downs
9	LAC	LAC 37	4	7	1:54	Punt
10	LV	LV 15	7	33	1:49	Punt
11	LAC	LAC 20	7	65	3:35	Touchdown
12	LV	LV 8	5	9	1:32	Punt
13	LAC	LAC 31	10	69	2:15	Touchdown
14	LV	LV 30	3	2	0:29	End of half
15	LV	LV 22	13	58	5:59	Touchdown
16	LAC	LAC 27	11	19	4:22	Punt
17	LV	LV 19	7	36	2:55	Touchdown
18	LAC	LAC 15	11	32	3:18	Punt
19	LV	LV 14	5	52	2:48	Turnover on downs
20	LAC	LAC 42	11	58	5:18	Touchdown
21	LV	LV 25	8	13	2:06	Interception
22	LAC	LAC 44	5	25	1:23	Punt
23	LV	LV 10	4	3	0:40	Turnover on downs
24	LAC	LV 13	2	0	1:11	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 75 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	21/34	196	2	1	4	-7.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Josh Jacobs	13	40	3.1	-4.2
Derek Carr	3	6	2.0	-0.4
Kenyan Drake	1	2	2.0	-0.3
Peyton Barber	1	0	0.0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Henry Ruggs	3	6	60	0	19%	0.3
Darren Waller	4	7	50	1	22%	0.8
Hunter Renfrow	6	8	45	1	25%	2.6
Josh Jacobs	5	5	17	0	16%	-3.8
Willie Snead	1	1	15	0	3%	2.7
Zay Jones	1	1	5	0	3%	0.1
Bryan Edwards	1	4	4	0	13%	-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Cory Littleton	9	5	0.0	0
Denzel Perryman	5	4	0.0	0
Johnathan Abram	4	4	0.0	0
Amik Robertson	4	1	0.0	0
Trevon Moehrig	5	0	0.0	1
K.J. Wright	2	3	0.0	0
Johnathan Hankins	1	3	0.0	0
Damon Arnette	1	2	0.0	0
Nate Hobbs	1	2	0.0	0
Darius Philon	2	1	2.0	0

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Herbert	25/38	222	3	0	2	5.1
Ty Long	0/1	0	0	0	0	-2.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Austin Ekeler	15	117	7.8	1	7.9
Larry Rountree	11	31	2.8	0	-4.2
Jalen Guyton	2	20	10.0	0	0.1
Justin Herbert	3	4	1.3	0	-3.4
Justin Jackson	3	-4	-1.3	0	-2.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jared Cook	6	7	70	1	18%	10.5
Keenan Allen	7	11	36	0	29%	-4.6
Stephen Anderson	1	1	34	0	3%	2.0
Austin Ekeler	3	5	28	1	13%	1.8
Donald Parham	2	3	17	1	8%	2.6
Justin Jackson	4	4	17	0	11%	-0.4
Mike Williams	1	4	11	0	11%	-2.9
Jalen Guyton	1	2	9	0	5%	-0.1
Tevaughn Campbell	0	1	0	0	3%	-2.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Derwin James	3	3	0.0	1	1
Drue Tranquill	2	3	0.0	0	0
Nasir Adderley	2	3	0.0	0	1
Michael Davis	4	1	0.0	0	1
Asante Samuel	3	1	0.0	0	1
Linval Joseph	2	2	0.0	0	0
Kyzir White	2	1	0.0	0	0
Jerry Tillery	1	2	1.0	0	0
Christian Covington	3	0	1.0	0	0
Tevaughn Campbell	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LAC -3
Closing total: 52
LV moneyline: +144
LAC moneyline: -161

Chargers closed -3 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 52; the game landed 42 — under by 10.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: LV 8 days · LAC 8 days
Coaches: Jon Gruden vs Brandon Staley

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.