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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 3, 2021 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 4
It turned at OT 7:32, 2nd and 14, on Saquon Barkley — 20.3 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 7:32 · 2nd and 14
Saquon Barkley
Giants
(7:32) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 26-S.Barkley to NO 34 for 18 yards (27-M.Jenkins; 97-M.Roach). NO-98-P.Turner was injured during the play. His return is Probable. Pass -5, YAC 23
New York Giants 27–21. Biggest swing: OT 7:32, Giants +20.3% win probability on one snap.
20.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Giants at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Giants won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Saints at 3 chunk plays.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 8 of 13 on third down, against Giants at 4 of 11 on third down.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Giants at 44% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
(7:32) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 26-S.Barkley to NO 34 for 18 yards (27-M.Jenkins; 97-M.Roach). NO-98-P.Turner was injured during the play. His return is Probable. Pass -5, YAC 23
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Saquon Barkley's 6-yard rushing touchdown with 5:00 left in overtime put New York Giants ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Giantscategory by categorySaints
Giants ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Saints, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.37 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 61 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Saints’s 65 at 40%. Red-zone trips: Giants 5, Saints 3.
Giants won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs 0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYG's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 2.8 points clear of the next team along.
26 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points.
NO's pass rate over expected, −18.8 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 4.4 points clear of the next team along.
65 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 26 pts
Over Expected room →Giants7.7 ptsinside their normal wobble · +9.6 vs their -1.9 pts, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (+0.88× that swing) · 60 snaps
Saints-18.8 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −12.4 vs their -6.3 pts, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−1.72× that swing) · 65 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 94%
Tendencies room →Giants67.3%inside their normal wobble · +9.6 vs their 57.7%, and they swing ±14.0 week to week (+0.69× that swing) · 49 early downs
Saints33.3%leaned — ran early · −17.0 vs their 50.4%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−1.47× that swing) · 51 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -38% to 96%
Fourth Down room →Giants0.0%leaned — took the kick · −29.0 vs their 29.0%, and they swing ±26.1 week to week (−1.11× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Saints33.3%right on their number · +0.5 vs their 32.8%, and they swing ±23.2 week to week (+0.02× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 34%
Tendencies room →Giants0.0%leaned — stayed blocked · −11.6 vs their 11.6%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−1.73× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Saints14.0%inside their normal wobble · −3.5 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.54× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NYG's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 11.6 points below their season mean of 11.6% and 1.7 times their own 6.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Giants
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · NYG
28/40, 402 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
16.4 expected points added · +8.7% completion over expected
Passing · NO
17/23, 226 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
10.9 expected points added · -0.9% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Saquon Barkley banked 13.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon BarkleyRB · Bell Cow Back | 29.6 | +13.4 | 89% | 81% | 17% | 6% | 13 car, 52 yd, 1 TD · 5/6, 74 yd, 1 TD |
| Daniel JonesQB · Starter QB | 26.8 | +7.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 28/40, 402 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 27 yd |
| Taysom HillQB · Starter QB | 17.8 | +5.9 | 50% | — | 8% | 0% | 2/3, 9 yd, 1 INT · 6 car, 28 yd, 2 TD · 2/2, 26 yd |
| Kenny GolladayWR · Featured Receiver | 17.6 | +6.1 | 92% | 86% | 19% | 26% | 6/7, 116 yd |
| John RossWR · Rotational Receiver | 16.7 | +9.3 | 44% | 49% | 11% | 20% | 3/4, 77 yd, 1 TD |
| Kadarius ToneyWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.9 | −0.4 | 78% | 77% | 25% | 19% | 1 car, 1 yd · 6/9, 78 yd |
| Jameis WinstonQB · Starter QB | 13.0 | +4.5 | 88% | — | 0% | — | 17/23, 226 yd, 1 TD |
| Alvin KamaraRB · Bell Cow Back | 12.0 | −1.5 | 87% | 81% | 0% | — | 26 car, 120 yd |
| Deonte HartyWR · Alpha Receiver | 10.2 | −3.0 | 49% | 73% | 31% | 36% | 5/8, 52 yd |
| Juwan JohnsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.0 | +4.5 | 21% | 38% | 12% | 10% | 2/3, 20 yd, 1 TD |
| Marquez CallawayWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.4 | +5.0 | 82% | 81% | 8% | 33% | 2/2, 74 yd |
| Ty MontgomeryWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.9 | +2.1 | 50% | 62% | 12% | 16% | 2 car, 7 yd · 3/3, 42 yd |
| Evan EngramTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.4 | −4.1 | 68% | 63% | 17% | 5% | 1 car, -3 yd · 5/6, 27 yd |
| Kyle RudolphTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | −2.2 | 59% | 58% | 8% | 4% | 2/3, 24 yd |
| Chris HoganWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | +0.3 | 21% | 19% | 8% | 6% | 2/2, 15 yd |
| Devontae BookerRB | 2.2 | +0.3 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Dwayne WashingtonRB | 2.1 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tony JonesRB · Receiving Back | 1.5 | −4.7 | 13% | 19% | 12% | 0% | 3 car, 8 yd · 1/3, -3 yd |
| Adam TrautmanTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −0.3 | 57% | 35% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| Alex ArmahRB | 0.2 | −0.2 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Garrett GriffinTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 25% | 12% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Kenny StillsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | 25% | 23% | 4% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Gary BrightwellRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Collin JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| C.J. BoardWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 30% | 28% | 0% | — | No touches. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(7:32) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 26-S.Barkley to NO 34 for 18 yards (27-M.Jenkins; 97-M.Roach). NO-98-P.Turner was injured during the play. His return is Probable. Pass -5, YAC 23
OT 7:32 · Giants · 2nd & 14 at NYG 48 · gained 18 · +1.77 EP · +20.3% win probability
159 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 173 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 75 yards from the NO 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Giants6
Saints0Giants7Saints0Giants7Saints6Giants7Saints7Giants7Saints13Giants7Saints14Giants10Saints14Giants10Saints20Giants10Saints21Giants16Saints21Giants18Saints21Giants21Saints21Giants27Saints21Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Giants at Saints, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 28/40 | 402 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +16.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 13 | 52 | 4.0 | 1 | −0.5 |
| Daniel Jones | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Devontae Booker | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Golladay | 6 | 7 | 116 | 0 | 19% | +9.8 |
| Kadarius Toney | 6 | 9 | 78 | 0 | 25% | +3.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Ryan | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Reggie Ragland | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tae Crowder | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonard Williams |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 17/23 | 226 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +10.9 |
| Taysom Hill | 2/3 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | −2.3 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_04_NYG_NO
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Saints closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43; the game landed 48 — over by 5.0.
Conditions and crew
| Kadarius Toney | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Evan Engram | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 | −1.5 |
| John Ross | 3 | 4 | 77 | 1 | 11% | +5.7 |
| Saquon Barkley | 5 | 6 | 74 | 1 | 17% | +3.7 |
| Evan Engram | 5 | 6 | 27 | 0 | 17% | −2.3 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 8% | +0.1 |
| Devontae Booker | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| 1 |
| 6 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Adoree' Jackson | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier McKinney | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Johnson | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dexter Lawrence | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Oshane Ximines | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Azeez Ojulari | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 26 | 120 | 4.6 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Taysom Hill | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 2 | +2.0 |
| Tony Jones | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Ty Montgomery | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Dwayne Washington | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Alex Armah | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquez Callaway | 2 | 2 | 74 | 0 | 8% | +5.0 |
| Deonte Harty | 5 | 8 | 52 | 0 | 31% | −0.2 |
| Ty Montgomery | 3 | 3 | 42 | 0 | 12% | +2.8 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 8% | +1.5 |
| Juwan Johnson | 2 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 12% | +2.8 |
| Chris Hogan | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 8% | +0.9 |
| Dwayne Washington | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | −0.3 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4% | +0.8 |
| Kenny Stills | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.7 |
| Tony Jones | 1 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 12% | −3.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malcolm Jenkins | 7 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pete Werner | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Demario Davis | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Williams | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Paulson Adebo | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Jordan | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tanoh Kpassagnon | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kaden Elliss | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shy Tuttle | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marshon Lattimore | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
