2021 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 3, 2021 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

New York GiantsWinner

New Orleans Saints

NO -7.5 upsetO 43 ✓DomeSaints closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New York Giants 27–21. Biggest swing: OT 7:32, NO +20% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 7:32NYG — NO NYG ball · 2nd & 14NYG 60%

(7:32) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 26-S.Barkley to NO 34 for 18 yards (27-M.Jenkins; 97-M.Roach). NO-98-P.Turner was injured during the play. His return is Probable. Pass -5, YAC 23

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 7:32NO +20% win prob(7:32) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 26-S.Barkley to NO 34 for 18 yards (27-M.Jenkins; 97-M.Roach). NO-98-P.Turner was injured during the play. His return is Probable. Pass -5, YAC 23
Q4 · 0:58NO +19% win prob(:58) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 19-K.Golladay to NO 34 for 28 yards (56-D.Davis). Pass 5, YAC 23
OT · 5:29NO +13% win prob(5:29) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 19-K.Golladay pushed ob at NO 6 for 23 yards (43-M.Williams). Pass 15, YAC 8
Q2 · 8:59NO +11% win prob(8:59) 8-D.Jones pass deep middle to 12-J.Ross to NO 1 for 51 yards (43-M.Williams, 29-P.Adebo). FUMBLES (43-M.Williams), and recovers at NO -8. TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Giants	Saints
Offensive plays	61	65
Total yards	487 (edge)	405
Yards per play	8.0 (edge)	6.2
Expected points added / play	0.24 (edge)	0.13
Success rate	44%	54% (edge)
Dropback rate	70%	40%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.37 (edge)	0.33
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.09	-0.01 (edge)
Third downs	4/11	8/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	21
Sacks taken	0	0
Turnovers	1	1

Giants won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs 0.13.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYG

Daniel JonesQB

28/40, 402 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

16.4 expected points added · +8.7% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Jameis WinstonQB

17/23, 226 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

10.9 expected points added · -0.9% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

26 att, 120 yds, 0 TD

-1.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYG

Saquon BarkleyRB

13 att, 52 yds, 1 TD

-0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYG

Kenny GolladayWR

6/7 for 116 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 9.8 expected points added

Receiving · NYG

Kadarius ToneyWR

6/9 for 78 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 3.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NYG	NYG 15	5	4	1:28	Punt
2	NO	NO 47	6	13	2:04	Punt
3	NYG	NYG 6	6	14	2:04	Punt
4	NO	NO 29	10	44	5:40	Turnover on downs
5	NYG	NYG 27	10	67	5:29	Turnover on downs
6	NO	NO 25	8	35	4:16	Turnover on downs
7	NYG	NYG 48	2	52	0:08	Touchdown
8	NO	NO 25	15	90	8:28	Touchdown
9	NYG	NYG 25	4	37	0:23	Interception
10	NO	NO 25	5	75	1:36	Touchdown
11	NYG	NYG 25	11	70	4:48	Turnover on downs
12	NO	NO 25	5	29	2:28	Interception
13	NYG	NYG 12	6	18	2:45	Punt
14	NO	NO 37	12	68	6:14	Touchdown
15	NYG	NYG 25	7	28	2:45	Punt
16	NO	NO 17	4	8	2:23	Punt
17	NYG	NYG 46	2	56	0:09	Touchdown
18	NO	NO 13	9	38	3:51	Punt
19	NYG	NYG 11	11	59	2:30	Turnover on downs
20	NO	NO 22	3	5	0:31	Turnover on downs
21	NYG	NYG 25	10	82	5:06	Touchdown

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 90 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Giants

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Daniel Jones	28/40	402	2	1	0	16.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Saquon Barkley	13	52	4.0	1	-0.5
Daniel Jones	4	27	6.8	0	0.3
Devontae Booker	1	6	6.0	0	0.3
Kadarius Toney	1	1	1.0	0	-0.5
Evan Engram	1	-3	-3.0	0	-1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Kenny Golladay	6	7	116	0	19%	9.8
Kadarius Toney	6	9	78	0	25%	3.7
John Ross	3	4	77	1	11%	5.7
Saquon Barkley	5	6	74	1	17%	3.7
Evan Engram	5	6	27	0	17%	-2.3
Kyle Rudolph	2	3	24	0	8%	0.1
Devontae Booker	1	1	6	0	3%	-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Logan Ryan	4	5	1
Reggie Ragland	4	4	0
Tae Crowder	3	5	0
Leonard Williams	1	6	0
Adoree' Jackson	3	3	0
Xavier McKinney	3	3	0
Austin Johnson	2	4	0
Dexter Lawrence	3	2	1
Oshane Ximines	1	3	1
Azeez Ojulari	1	3	0

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jameis Winston	17/23	226	1	0	0	10.9
Taysom Hill	2/3	9	0	1	0	-2.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alvin Kamara	26	120	4.6	0	-1.4
Taysom Hill	6	28	4.7	2	2.0
Tony Jones	3	8	2.7	0	-0.4
Ty Montgomery	2	7	3.5	0	-0.7
Dwayne Washington	1	5	5.0	0	0.0
Alex Armah	1	2	2.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marquez Callaway	2	2	74	0	8%	5.0
Deonte Harty	5	8	52	0	31%	-0.2
Ty Montgomery	3	3	42	0	12%	2.8
Taysom Hill	2	2	26	0	8%	1.5
Juwan Johnson	2	3	20	1	12%	2.8
Chris Hogan	2	2	15	0	8%	0.9
Dwayne Washington	1	1	6	0	4%	-0.3
Adam Trautman	1	1	3	0	4%	0.8
Kenny Stills	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.7
Tony Jones	1	3	-3	0	12%	-3.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Malcolm Jenkins	7	4	0	0
Pete Werner	5	4	0	0
Demario Davis	5	1	0	0
Marcus Williams	3	2	1	1
Paulson Adebo	3	1	0	0
Cameron Jordan	2	2	0	0
Tanoh Kpassagnon	2	2	0	1
Kaden Elliss	1	2	0	0
Shy Tuttle	1	1	0	0
Marshon Lattimore	1	1	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -7.5
Closing total: 43
NYG moneyline: +286
NO moneyline: -337

Saints closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43; the game landed 48 — over by 5.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: NYG 7 days · NO 7 days
Coaches: Joe Judge vs Sean Payton